The View from the Hermitage, Day 381

Let's start off with the "say what?" news of the day. Streaming services have pulled two episodes of SpongeBob SquarePants  due to their content. In "Kwarantined Crab," a case of "clam flu" is found in a restaurant. The patrons are quarantined and, as expected, get very anxious. They get so anxious that they shun those assumed to have the virus and toss them into the freezer. My kids probably would have loved that episode and taken it out either farther, but then I've been told my family is weird. The second episode pulled from streaming actually has been gone since 2018. In "Mid-Life Crustacean," SpongeBob, Patrick, and Mr. Knobs break into a woman's house and steal her underwear. Try explaining that one to the kids. I think I read somewhere a while back that SpongeBob SquarePants is actually aimed at adults rather than children, but its being a cartoon with talking sea animals does have "kids, too" written all over it. 

Look to the left, look to the right. Covid is rising everywhere. Canada is experiencing more hospitalizations and lockdowns due to the various variants. France is looking at its third national lockdown. Daily new cases over the past week have averaged 37,000. Hospitals may have to start deciding who to try to save. Some 5,000 patients are in ICUs for the first time since last April. The ICU head at a Paris hospital said, "The outlook is worse than frightening ... We're already at the level of the second wave and we're quickly getting close to the threshold of the first wave. April is going to be dreadful."

Clinical trials suggest that the Pfizer vaccine is highly effective in 12- to 15-year-olds. It may actually be more effective in those kids than it is in adults. Research is also being done on mixing vaccines as in a first dose of one and a second dose of another, different one. There is thought that this might give better protection. It might also solve distribution bottlenecks. Every little bit helps. 

Domestically, things could be a lot better. We've passed 551,000 deaths. The average number of deaths over the past seven days rose by nine percent. Vaccine demand appears to be waning in some states. When asked if they will definitely get a shot, fewer than 31 percent of respondents from North Dakota, Wyoming, and Mississippi said they would. Between 32 and 42 percent said yes in Montana, Idaho, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Arkansas. In five states, Washington, Minnesota, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine, over 64 percent said they would. All the other states fell in the 43 to 63 percent range. Mask mandates took another hit when the Wisconsin Supreme Court struck down the mask mandate there saying that the governor did not have the legal authority to issue it. 

Tomorrow is Opening Day. That's in Major League Baseball for anyone who might not recognize who would be opening what. The NFL (American football) has added a 17th game to their regular season starting this year and has announced that stadiums will be filled. I wish them luck. Right now, fewer than half of Americans feel comfortable attending sports in person, especially in indoor settings. It may be that I've always sat in the less expensive nosebleed section up at the top, but I've always thought you see the game better on television than in person. 

A short post, but it's been a long day fighting disorganization. 

 

The View from the Hermitage, Day 380

I'm not sure there was any positive news regarding the novel coronavirus that really isn't novel at all any longer. I did find some interesting distractions, though, so I'll see what I can do about inserting them in random locations. I have not looked at it in depth, but XPot has a new website, 45office.com. Would you like XPot or his lady for personal appearances or greetings? This is the place to go. The form you will have to fill out includes questions such as "Will Media be Present?" and asks whether any "Notable Attendees" might be there. There is a narrative on XPot's term that strangely omits any mention of two impeachments, an economic crash, the covid death toll, and the January 6 riot at the Capitol. Did he do anything else really?

International scientists are saying that we may need new vaccines as the current ones become ineffective. Two-thirds of the 77 scientists from 28 countries polled say that this could happen within a year. The other one-third? They give it nine months or less. Why might new vaccines be needed? Persistent low vaccine coverage may make it more likely for vaccine-resistant mutations to appear. Just one more argument for getting vaccines out to developing countries as soon as possible. 

Across the pond, Dutch covid cases rose for the seventh consecutive week, with only a five percent increase for cases in people over the age of 80. The national health agency expects cases will peak in late April as vaccination levels increase. In Sweden, the number of covid patients needing care in an ICU increased nine percent over last week. And Russia says that a third wave is emerging there. 

It shouldn't be surprising that visits to the world's top 100 museums and galleries fell 77 percent due to the pandemic. The Louvre remained the most visited, though its 2.7 million visitors were down 72 percent from 2019. The monetary loss was about 90 million Euros. The other most visited  places, though all lower than the year before were the Tate Modern in London, the Vatican Museums (down 81 percent), the British Museum, and the Reina Sofia in Madrid.

A group of medical experts in Japan have questioned whether the Tokyo Olympics should be held this summer. They have said that they think 50 to 70 percent of the general public should be vaccinated first, and that is not going to happen by July. Health care workers are the only Japanese to have been vaccinated so far.

As of yesterday here in the US, we've seen an average of over 65,000 new cases a day over the past two weeks, a 19 percent rise over the daily average two weeks ago. We're seeing some 1,000 deaths daily as well. Contributing factors include the relaxation of restrictions including mask-wearing, the growing prevalence of variants, and increased travel. On Sunday, March 28, 1.5 million people went through TSA screening at airports. One year ago, that number was 180,000. While more than one in three Americans has gotten at least one shot of vaccine and nearly one-fifth are fully vaccinated, we are still a long way from the 70 to 90 percent needed for herd immunity.  

France is dealing with toy thieves specializing in Legos. The US, Canada, and Australia have also dealt with Lego thievery. Evidently, there are collectors who want specific sets. A Cafe Corner Lego set that cost 150 Euros when it was released in 2007 sold, in its original box, last year for 2,500 Euros. Needless to say, sales of Lego sets have increased markedly during the pandemic. 

Should there be an international treaty to combat the future pandemics we know are coming? Leaders in the European Union and WHO along with heads of some nations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America have released a letter calling for such a treaty. They note that the current pandemic is a "stark and painful reminder that nobody is safe until everybody is safe." I admit to loving the notion that nobody is safe until everybody is safe. Can we remind vaccine-hesitant people who don't wear masks and want to stand right next to us of that thought? I wish.

In terms of the rising rates here in the US, consider the following. In terms of businesses, no states are considered "mostly closed." Hawaii, Oregon, California, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico are considered "mixed" in terms of opening, All the other states fall into a "mostly open" category. Masks? More states continue their mask mandates, but 16 have no restrictions. There are three states with partial mask mandates. Finally, four states--California, New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Kentucky--have stay-at-home advisories; all others no longer have any restrictions.

Nobody is safe until everybody is safe. Words worth remembering.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 379

The ship is free! Long float the ship! I admit to being surprised that they got the Ever Given back afloat in less than a week. They freed the stern overnight, which was the easy part according to the head of the Dutch salvage team. At the time, they said that the bow was still "stuck rock-solid." Freeing the ship required dredging 30,000 cubic meters of sand not to mention 13 tugboats. Last I read, they had moved the ship to the center of the canal channel and were towing it to a lake to the north. There, they'll do a complete technical inspection. They will likely also check the keel of the ship to make sure there was no damage there. Assuming the ship's getting stuck in the first place did not damage the deep center channel, the canal should be back open for traffic today. 

In more sobering news, the CDC director says, "Right now, I'm scared." She also confessed to "the recurring feeling I have of impending doom." She said she was speaking not so much as the CDC director but as a wife, mother, and daughter to ask the public "to just please hold on a while longer." Her comments came in the wake of daily new cases having risen from 40,000 or 50,000 a few weeks ago to 70,000 now. Cases are rising ominously in Connecticut, Massachusetts, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, and Rhode Island. The seven-day average of hospital admissions is also rising. If that's the bad news, the good news is that a CDC study shows that both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have been highly effective in preventing infection in "real-world conditions."

I'm sure there are people who will take the news on the vaccines' effectiveness as an excuse to jump back into life after only the first vaccination, to remove their mask, and not eschew crowds. I know someone who caught covid-19 after her first vaccination. Her case was not so bad as to require hospitalization, but she said it was not at all pleasant. In making my multitude of mostly medical appointments, I made sure that all would be not just two, but three weeks after my second vaccination. Should that vaccination be delayed for some reason, I would reschedule any of the appointments that would become less than two weeks after. I did not live in the hermitage this long to throw it all away right at the end. And while I will go out for the various appointments in May, I do not plan on going out willy-nilly. Son #1 has offered to continue doing the grocery procurement, and The Professor and I have no plans to go out to eat indoors. We will consider going out to eat outdoors depending on the distances between tables and the weather. But back full-tilt to the old normal? Not on our lives!

The joint China-WHO report on the origin of the novel coronavirus is expected to say that a lab leak is "extremely unlikely." The likely source, according to the report, was an animal, with the virus going from bats to some other animals to humans. Having no background in virology and not having had a biology class since grade 9, I cannot comment on the likelihood of that path. A lab leak--someone accidentally exposed who goes into the community?--seems plausible. I see no way it was an intentional release; too many Chinese died for that to be realistic. Unless the animal trail can be determined with confidence, we'll probably never know how it got started on its trip around the world.

Finally, American church membership has dropped below 50 percent for the first time in 83 years. In 2020, 47 percent of Americans reported being a member in an organized church. I would expect generational differences to be responsible for a large part of that. I know many people who claim to be spiritual in terms of their beliefs but who find organized religion not to their liking.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 378

Tonight is a worm moon, also known as a crow, crust, sap, or sugar moon. It is the first full moon of spring or the last full moon of winter depending on where the full moon falls in March. It rises on the eastern horizon in early evening; the actual "full" moment is around 2:50 in the afternoon. The moon will look larger near the horizon than it will once it has risen into the sky, a phenomenon known as the "moon illusion." This will be the fourth closest moon to Earth in 2021; the other so-called "super-moons" will be in April, May, and June. May's full moon will be the closest of the year. 

The Suez ship saga continues. They say they've cleared enough dirt away so that the stern and the rudder can move. Tonight's full moon will mean higher tide, and they're hoping to get the bow free without damaging the structure of the ship. They're bringing in some additional tug boats to help. Removing some of the containers either with a land crane or a special helicopter remains an option, probably the last-chance one. 

Mexico has re-examined its excess deaths in 2020 and has increased its covid-19 death toll by 60 percent, to 321,000. This make Mexico second only to the US in terms of total deaths and pushed Brazil into third place. I don't think Brazil is going to mind. 

The UK is adding the Moderna vaccine to the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines, giving a third option. The goal is to have people over 50 vaccinated with a first shot by April 15, and all adults by the end of July. Here at home, one-third of adults have gotten a first dose. New York and Arkansas are behind the other states in giving all adults access to a vaccine. At least 36 states give clergy members vaccine priority. I can't say that I disagree. They are on a different front line than emergency or medical workers but still are potentially more exposed than I and most other people would be. 

Scientists are conducting a crowd test in Barcelona. Five thousand people who test negative for covid-19 in the morning will attend a concert. They will be given high quality masks to wear and have no other restrictions on distancing or movement. The band, Love of Lesbian, is excited to be playing. One of its members noted that it's been almost a year-and-a-half since they "last set foot on a scenario as a band." The report I read did not detail what measurements might be taken after the concert, so I'm not really sure how the researchers will measure derive information useful for crowd behavior as more things reopen. 

As schools move to reopen for in-person instruction, ventilation becomes a major issue. The average school building in the US is 44 years old, and four in 10 school districts need to update or replace the HVAC systems in at least half of their buildings. This amounts to some 36,000 buildings nationwide. Given the extra money schools have probably had to spend to equip students for virtual learning, the cost of improved ventilation is likely to be a real burden.

Deborah Birx (remember her?) now says that a vast majority of our almost 550,000 covid-19 deaths could have been prevented if XPot had acted earlier and with greater conviction. I realize she was in an awkward position in terms of what was done when and how, but wish she had expressed similar thoughts in the spring of 2020. Meanwhile, Dr. Fauci says that his push to go "all out" on pursuing a vaccine as early as January 2020 "may have been the best decision I have ever made." 

I learned two new words today, one of which grew out of the pandemic. The non-pandemic one is "locum" which refers to a temporary substitute, especially for a doctor or member of the clergy. The pandemic-generated one is "fauxmorbidity" or stretching the truth about a mild circulatory or mental ailment to justify an early shot of vaccine. Here in Virginia or at least in my local health district, such risk factors are on the honor system. I did not have to take in any proof that I have asthma and high book pressure, for example. Some states do require this, though.

The Professor will be on the grounds of the local university for the first time since he had his covid vaccine. I told him he should check to see if he still needs the weekly covid test. I would think that having had one dose of vaccine, he may very well test positive but given that the vaccine does not contain live or dead virus, he may not. It will be interesting to find out.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 377

Today will be less pandemic, more free association. I got back to going through the detritus of our packing the house up last summer, and got a little distracted when I might have been news-farming. I think I mentioned that CSPAN was starting coverage of the 2024 Presidential race. Mike Pompeo, crony of XPot, is leading off giving several speeches--where else--in Iowa. Of course, POTUS said during his first press conference that he planned to run for re-election, so there you go. The race is on!

Epic is a subscription platform for kids; with kids at home during the pandemic, there are currently 50 million kids subscribed. From their choices, the folks at Epic have come up with an interesting list of which things kids prefer to others. For instance, kids prefer owls to chickens but chickens to hedgehogs, and they hunt for unicorns twice as often as they hunt for mermaids. They prefer owls over koalas and worms over kangaroos (sorry, Land Down Under). Ferocious beasts have a good following as do grumpy-faced boatfish. Volcanoes are better than tsunamis but tsunamis are better than earthquakes. Kids also seem to think that the Titanic is better than cowboys, pizza is better than cake, and science is better than art. Those three things being said, "poop" tops all six of those. 

Last I heard, one of the world's largest container ships (it's almost 400 meters long, 59 meters wide, and can carry 20,000 containers) is still suck in the Suez Canal. Dredgers have so far removed 20,000 tons of sand and clay from around the bow. The people charged with fixing the situation were hoping that today's high tide might help, but I don't think it has. A Dutch company is bringing in a land crane. The plan is to remove 600 containers from the bow of the ship to reduce its weight. I have not heard where they plan to put those 600 containers. 

The asteroid Apophis, that has been feared in terms of its getting up close and personal with Earth, won't hit Earth for at least another 100 years according to NASA. Whew! That was close!

I did take a few notes on coronavirus-related matters, but to what end? I'm going to stick with the lighter side and wonder where wombats sit in Epic's animal rankings or how will they get a gantry crane in place beside that giant ship. And if they do get a large enough crane there, will they line up 600 semi trucks to move the containers so as to avoid stacking 600 containers up on the shore?

Dinner tonight is steak cooked on a hot rock. It's been too long since we've done that.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 376

On the university front, Rutgers University in New Jersey, one of the largest universities in the country with around 70,000 students, is requiring that students at the three main campuses in New Brunswick Newark, and Camden get vaccinated before they return in the fall. Exceptions will be made for medical or religious reasons and for students studying only online or off-campus. They will still require masks and social distancing even among groups of fully vaccinated people. 

Over 12,000 students at over 20 universities around the US will be the subjects in a study on whether people immunized against coronavirus with the Moderna vaccine can still spread it to others. The study will track infections among vaccinated students and their close contacts. The goal is a good idea of just how careful vaccinated people need to be. Half of the students will be randomly selected to get the vaccine right after they enroll. The other half will get vaccinated four months later. Students will be followed for five months, get tested for the virus daily, and provide blood samples to check for antibodies. Over time, researchers expect to ask some 25,500 close contacts to swab their noses daily for two weeks, provide two blood samples, and answer weekly questionnaires. Offhand, I would say that Rutgers is not one of the over 20 universities in the study.

Continuing with vaccines, both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines appear effective in pregnant and lactating women. Protective antibodies have been found passed to newborns in some cases. Questions are again being raised about the fact that the US will end up with some 70 million more vaccine doses than might be needed to vaccinate all the adults. Arguments for keeping that surplus include that it is not clear when vaccines might be needed for children; that may not be until fall. It is also not yet clear what sort of boosters might be needed and at what intervals. The trials conducted so far did not assess how long the vaccines stay active. Still, of the vaccine distributed globally, 75 percent have gone to just 10 countries, and at least 30 countries have not yet vaccinated anyone. 

States continue to announce relaxation of capacity restrictions, and in-person learning is increasing. More people are traveling, though some 56 percent of Americans haven't traveled at all during the pandemic. (It is not clear what definition of "travel" was in this case.) The CDC Director is not happy about these trends, noting that deaths are remaining stable at around 1,000 daily, and new cases have stayed around 57,000 daily for the past three weeks. Some states are seeing weekly case increases of 10 percent. Vaccinations are working, though variants still carry a greater risk of exposure and can complicate treatments. Assuming that 70 percent of people get vaccinated, it may still take five months for herd immunity. 

The University of Washington has released a model showing 600,000 deaths by July 1, which wuld mean 59,000 people dying in the next three months. If the mask rate went from the current 75 percent to 95 percent, 10,000 lives could be saved.

Fancy a hot dog? The ones in Iceland are quite good. In fact, I'll throw in a photo from 2017. The hot dog I'm consuming is the best hot dog I have ever had. When we return to Iceland, I plan to get another.

 

Their hot dogs might lack the secret sauce the one I'm eating had, but right now there are folks roasting hot dogs on the lava from the erupting volcano, Fagradalsfjall. Said volcano was dormant for some 700 years before springing back into action recently. Some people are going so far as to say that the lava patterns are "cute" or like "Disneyland." 

On average, there are 20 active volcanic eruptions around the world at any given time. Right now, there are 24. One in Kamchatka, Russia is so remote that the only impact is on air traffic. The world's most active volcano, Merapi in Central Java, Indonesia is sending pyroclastic currents toward villages. They want to be careful there. Another Indonesian volcano in Sinabung was dormant for more than 700 years until it erupted in 2010. It is still erupting.

Damn, that was a good hot dog.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 375

In international news, the Olympic torch has begun its run through Japan to arrive in Tokyo for the opening ceremony in July. I may actually watch a bit of the Games to see what they look like with no or only Japanese spectators. I will likely not watch anything like gymnastics that I do not consider a sport, but I have been known to watch swimming or track and field.

The Suez Canal stuck ship saga continues. They are bringing in Dutch and Japanese teams to help in getting the Ever Given ungrounded and re-open the canal. It isn't going to be easy. The ship is one of the largest container ships in the world; it weighs 220,000 tons and is 400 meters or roughly a quarter of a mile long. I loved the way that Peter Berdowski, the CEO of a Dutch dredging company, described the situation: 

"It's like an enormous beached whale. It's an enormous weight on the sand. We might have to work with a combination of reducing the weight by removing containers, oil and water from the ship; tugboats and dredging of sand."

Upon hearing this Son #1 reminded me that they sometimes explode beached whales that have died rather than haul the body out to sea. It's just easier that way. The person I would hate to be right now is either of the Egyptian pilots on board to help guide the ship through the canal. Their careers as pilots may have come to a screeching halt. It must have been a hell of a wind and sand storm to push a ship that large that far out of alignment.

In more national news, tomorrow CSPAN will start coverage of the 2024 presidential race. I feel like a crotchety old biddie remembering that in my younger days, the presidential race really didn't start until January of the election year. 

In slightly-related-to-the-pandemic news, the Grape Nuts shortage is over! What? You did not know there was such a shortage? Yeah, neither did I. Due to supply chain constraints and high demand (more people working from home means more people eating breakfast at home), the cereal shelves were bereft of Grape Nuts. Some people paid over $100 for one box. By way of apologizing for the shortage, Post will reimburse anyone who paid more than $10 for a box up to a total of $115. You do need receipts to prove your claim.

In the past week, covid cases rose in 19 states, one of which was Virginia, and declined in 14 states. Michigan was the winner (or would that be loser?) showing an increase over 50 percent. On the other end, Arizona and Nevada showed 45 percent lower. The fact that the case rate in Virginia was increasing albeit only slightly makes me wonder a bit about the lessening of attendance limits at certain events.

AstraZeneca has released new data that it says shows their vaccine in highly effective. The found a prevention rate of 76 percent using all 32,000 people in the trial. Why they released the earlier figure of 79 percent efficacy based on only 141 people I do not know. Was it someone accidentally releasing info not meant for release but once it's out there, you have to act on it? I have no idea. Sweden has re-started giving the AstraZeneca vaccine to people 65 and older. They say that the link between the vaccine and the development of blood clots cannot be ruled out for younger people, but the vaccine appears safe for seniors.

Florida has been vaccinating people by age group. Next week they will start vaccinating anyone over 40. They expect to be vaccinating anyone over 18 by early April. I managed to get an appointment for my second Pfizer shot. It's a few days past three weeks from my first one, but that's no biggie. It will be nice to start on my list of things I've been putting off dealing with such as arthritis in my thumbs.

Internationally, Brazil is in its worst days of the pandemic. Hospitals are near collapse, and daily death totals are at record highs. Perhaps more concerning, it is the young people who are getting more seriously ill and dying at a higher rate. On March 20, 2020, their head of state echoed XPot (that's our ex-president for any new arrivals here who might not have figured that out on their own), saying "...and soon it will pass." One year later, they've passed 300,000 in total deaths and are seeing about 3,000 each day. Only the US under XPot has suffered greater losses. 

Russia has started production of its third vaccine even as phase three trials for that vaccine continue. The new vaccine is CoviVac and follows Sputnik V and EpiVacCorona. Which of the three Vladimir Putin got or supposedly got is not known. At least one pundit thought it strange that there are no photos of Putin's vaccination. He seems to relish excuses to take his shirt off, and wouldn't this have been a good one? 

The View from the Hermitage, Day 374

First and foremost, kudos to our General Assembly and Governor. The Governor this afternoon signed the bill abolishing the death penalty in Virginia. We become the first Southern state to do away with it. There are things about this state that I have called home for 43 years that I do not like, but this is not one of them. On this day, I am proud to be a Virginian not by birth but choice.

Back to the pandemic. The CDC Director warned that the US could see an "avoidable" surge if it lets up on mitigation measures now. The next day, two states one of which was Virginia (the other was Indiana) announced a loosening of restrictions. In the case of Virginia, allowable attendance at outdoor events was raised to 30 percent of the site's capacity. Before, it had been 1,000 people or 30 percent whichever was less. 

According to WHO, global covid deaths are on the rise after weeks of steady decline. Countries are reacting to this in different ways. Iceland is closing schools, swimming pools, gyms, and bars for three weeks, and lowering the attendance cap on public gatherings from 50 to 10. For Iceland to close swimming pools says how bad things are getting. Belgium and France are also tightening restrictions. Discussion is ongoing within the UK whether France should be put on the "red list" of countries from which most travel to the UK is banned. The UK is also considering a $7,000 fine on anyone taking a nonessential vacation abroad, to which part of me wants to ask since when is a vacation nonessential. And India just saw its highest death toll this year. 

Here in the US, Michigan saw almost 17,000 new cases last week, a more than 300 percent increase over the same week last month. Michigan is also showing a positivity rate of nine percent, the highest since January. Epidemiologists are advising that the state needs to address a bottleneck in the vaccine supply; the state ranks in the bottom third of states on the percent of the population fully vaccinated. Part of Michigan's problem is apparently covid fatigue. People are moving around at near pre-pandemic levels with only a "consistently low proportion" still staying home. 

Dr. Fauci's advice? "When you get the overwhelming majority of your population vaccinated, the chances of there being a surge are miniscule. Just hang in there. Don't turn the switch on and off."

This morning's New York Times contains a fascinating (remember that my grad degrees are in psychology) article reporting that the US media offers a different picture of covid-19 from scientific journals or international media. Last year, 87 percent of national US media reporting regarding the coronavirus was negative, and this held for both liberal and conservative sources. In other words, the audiences are not getting the most accurate view of the reality; the media are not being clear about which developments are truly alarming. So, is the US media merely giving the audience what it wants? After all, the most read or shared Facebook coronavirus stories have been the negative ones. It's worth noting that US media must support themselves. They cannot rely on the government for funding as outlets such as the BBC can. 

Ford Corp. is offering permanent telework as an option for all white collar workers who can do their jobs remotely. That's about 16 percent of their employees. This makes them the largest non-technical employer to offer permanent work-from-home options. Microsoft has invited 57,000 employees in Redmond, Washington back to headquarters though they can choose to continue working from home if they want to.

Finally, The Professor had to ask: Does the fact that alcohol sales just fell for the first time since the start of the pandemic mean that we're coming out of it?

The View from the Hermitage, Day 373

Hurricane season is coming, and the season-to-be has a change in store. No longer will the "extra" hurricanes that occur after the name beginning with Z bear Greek letters as names. Only two years, one of which was 2020, have required the use of Greek letters, but future years going past Z will use names from a supplemental list. Why? There are three reasons. First, too much emphasis on the name can mean less on the potential impact of the storm. Second, Greek letters cause confusion when translated to other languages. Finally, several letters that occur in succession sound very similar. Can you say "zeta, eta, theta" three times in rapid succession? Several names have been retired, including Dorian, Laura, Eta, and Iota. Yes, Eta and Iota wouldn't have been back no matter their intensity.

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases has raised questions about the efficacy of the AstraZeneca virus. An independent panel of experts helping oversee the trial said that AstraZeneca essentially cherry-picked the data that would  be most favorable, overlooking the most recent and most complete data. AstraZeneca noted that the data were interim results but appeared to be "consistent" with more recent data, but said that it would reissue further results within two days. AstraZeneca is the vaccine that the US promised to Mexico and Canada; interestingly, the deal was considered a loan. It is not clear how those loans might be repaid. 

The past month has seen changes in some behaviors as vaccinations have increased. Comparing February 19-22 with March 19-22, more people are going out to eat; in February, 33 percent reported they had, while March was up to 45 percent. The percentage of respondents saying they had visited friends or relatives rose from 39 percent in February to 48 percent in March. The number of people saying they had stayed home and avoided other people fell from 74 percent in February to 67 percent in March. Finally, 11 percent of respondents in February reported that their emotional well-being had improved compared with 17 percent in March.

So, people appear to be letting their guard down as more people are vaccinated, but--you knew there had to be a "but" in there, didn't you--it's the unvaccinated people who are returning to activities outside the home. Fifty-two percent of unvaccinated Americans reported seeing friends and relatives outside the home in the past week, compared with 41 percent of those Americans who had been vaccinated. That's a bit of a disconnect there. 

The effects of living under lockdown have, of course, been studied from several angles. For example, people aged 50 and older tend to be coping better with pandemic stress, independent of income or education. A study coming out of the University of British Columbia reports that older ages were associated with less concern about the threat of covid, better emotional well-being, and more daily positive events. Another study reports that Americans living under lockdown have gained about two pounds per month. Forty-two percent reported an undesired pandemic weight gain; the median gain was 15 pounds. Another 18 percent reported a median gain of 12 pounds. I may offset one of those people gaining weight given that I've lost 16 pounds over the past year. I'd like to lose a bit more, but am quite satisfied with the 16 pounds. It puts me at the weight I was at before two shoulder and one knee surgeries slowed or stopped my ability to work out at the same level.

In non-lockdown poll results, Republicans and Democrats were asked if they thought various things were a "critical threat to the vital interests" of the US. The results for cyber-terrorism and North Korea's nuclear weapons had the two political parties virtually equal. The results for cyber-terrorism were 81 percent of Republicans and 82 percent of Democrats. For North Korea, 77 percent of Republicans and 76 percent of Democrats. The results for the economic power of China were 78 percent of Republicans seeing it as a critical threat compared with 52 percent of Democrats. Results for the military power of Russia were in an opposite direction. Thirty-nine percent of Republicans saw that as a critical threat compared with 49 percent of Democrats. 

Last but not least, Harvard University is expecting a "full return" to campus for the 2021-22 school year. They do plan to spread students out more in terms of campus lodging, but are looking at in-person classes. All classes have been virtual this academic year.

 

The View from the Hermitage, Day 372

Starting out with somethings light today. If you've had a covid vaccination, even just one, and show your card at Krispy Kreme Donuts, they will give you a free donut. Today. Tomorrow. The day after tomorrow. In fact, they will give you one donut free each day for the rest of the year. If you're at all vaccine-hesitant, might this be all it takes to push you into the vaccine-desired camp? I think it's a great idea, and I don't really like Krispy Kreme donuts. I also don't live near or regularly drive by a Krispy Kreme outlet. I've been told that if I got a Krispy Kreme donut hot out of the oven, I would like it. I don't want to find out. Having some sweet thing I have no desire to eat is a good thing.

Coming on June 29 is Dr. Fauci: How a Boy from Brooklyn Became America's Doctor, a picture book on Dr. Fauci's path to infectious disease expert. It started in his childhood with his curiosity and questioning. If my kids were still little, I'd definitely be getting this for them, not that they needed any prodding to ask questions.

Dictionary.com has updated with 450 new terms, including 23 related to dogs; 84 new definitions in existing entries; and 700 new pronunciations. Over 7,000 updates of varying type have been made, most as a result of the pandemic, race, social justice, identity and culture, and technology. Some of the new words were ones I'd never seen used: "finna" or a short form of "fixing to;" "sponcon" or a short form of "sponsored content." The first report I saw on this topic included "supposably" as one of the words. My initial thought--and that of The Professor--was that they had legitimized a mispronunciation of "supposedly," and that was just wrong. It turns out that we were just wrong. "Supposably" is a real word and has been in use since at least the 1700s. Here's the scoop:

"Supposedly" is derived from "supposed" and is used when a person has heard information about something.

"Supposably" is derived from "supposable" and is used for something "as may be assumed, imagined, or supposed."

And the 2020 Word of the Year? What else could it be? PANDEMIC.

On to that word of the year. Experts are split on whether a new covid surge is coming in the US. Spring break in Florida is especially concerning. Officers have had to fire pepper balls into crowds to try to get them to disperse. They've arrested dozens of revelers. We'll play a wait-and-see game once they return home or back to school. I must say that I have a problem with colleges and universities still having a formal spring break. The local university, and many others, is giving students five days off, spread throughout the semester. They don't want students to go somewhere, even home, and then return carrying who knows what germs. A college in California was holding a lottery with the prize of $75 a day for students who stayed on campus during spring break week.

A clinical trial in the US found the AstraZeneca vaccine to be 79 percent effective in stopping symptomatic covid and 100 percent effective at preventing serious illness. Most European countries that had suspended the use of AstraZeneca have resumed using it. There is criticism, however, that AstraZeneca has only delivered 30 percent of the 90 million doses promised for the first quarter of 2021. The United Arab Emirates is adding a third dose of AstraZeneca for people with a low immune response to the first two. I'm not sure how they decide who has a low immune response. Doing antibody testing on everyone seems a bit wasteful or cumbersome.

A European Union commissioner says that Europe could have herd immunity by July even as several countries are reimposing or strengthening restrictions amid covid surges. Given the apparent shortfall in the AstraZeneca vaccine, is thinking that over 75 percent of the population will be completely vaccinated realistic? Is 75 percent high enough to achieve herd immunity? Elsewhere, the numbers coming out of India are not good. New cases have increased for almost a week, showing the largest rise in cases since November. 

The US is again being accused of hoarding vaccine after accounting for 27 percent of the world's covid vaccine production while only providing vaccine to its neighbors Mexico and Canada. The vaccine being provided is AstraZeneca, one not yet approved for emergency use in the US, meaning that providing it is not at all a hardship. 

Let me know if you score a free donut, since I doubt I'll be trying for one.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 371

I've been at this blog now for 53 weeks. The pandemic was declared on March 11, 2020; I began this blog on March 16, 2020; and I got my first dose of coronavirus vaccine on March 19, 2021. It's been a hell of a year that seems much like a minute. When I started this pandemic journal, I don't think I really grasped just how long this could go on. When talk of a vaccine arose, I read that the quickest vaccine development and approval had been something like four years; I think that was the mumps vaccine. I never would have thought that one year and one week after the novel coronavirus pandemic was officially declared, I would be getting vaccinated against it. The first people vaccinated got their doses only nine months after the pandemic had been declared. 

When I think back on the events of the year, events both public and personal, the time seems to have passed so quickly. The year becomes, if not the minute suggested above, maybe a day. If I hadn't been writing this, I would not have appreciated all the events that the day-long year contained, what happened before some other thing, and what mistakes I made thinking of what would happen when. Adding in some political news has helped put things in  in a broader perspective, and there's been lots of political news from which to pick and choose. Some story lines, such as New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's meteoric rise and fall, I have deliberately not discussed; others, of course, such as the pre- and post-election event, I could not overlook.

Another happening of about one year ago was a spring break from which some students were told not to return except to pick up essentials such as computers and texts from their dorm rooms. Schools at all levels became online distance learning operations overnight. Some did it better than others, but I can't fault anyone's efforts. What school system would have thought as classes began in August or September that those classes would come to an abrupt halt in March?

Spring break is happening again, and it's not clear any coronavirus lessons have been learned in the past year. Miami Beach, Florida has been packed in large part because Florida has fewer restrictions in place than the other traditional spring break destinations. The local government has tried to put things on hold at least for 72 hours. For those 72 hours, restaurants, bars, and sidewalk cafes must close at 8:00 pm. I don't think that will do anything about the unmasked, not-so-distanced crowds on the beaches, though. Will there be a noticeable effect when all those students return to their respective dorms, apartments, or homes, to roommates their own age, or younger, or elderly? It would not surprise me.

Michigan, where early attempts at mitigation were soundly protested, now has the fourth fastest growing rate of new cases behind New Jersey, New York, and Rhode Island. In Michigan, that rate translates into a 92 percent rise in cases in the last two weeks. Michigan also ranks second for the presence of variants, behind only Florida. New York City has recorded its first case of the highly contagious Brazil variant. It is worth noting that the person presenting that case was a 90ish-year-old person with no travel history. In other words, they didn't bring that variant home from Brazil. Besides being highly contagious the Brazil variant has, in some cases, reinfected people who have had and recovered from covid-19. There are 48 other cases of this variant in at least 16 states; Florida has the most, 21. I wonder how many of those spring breakers will take the Brazil variant home as a souvenir. 

Other random things include that the organizing committee has confirmed that no international spectators will be allowed at the Tokyo Olympics (July 23 - August 8) nor Paralympics (August 24 - September 5). Closer to home, the Canadian Conservative Party has voted not to recognize the climate crisis as real; the vote was 54 to 46 percent. Eastern Australia is not enjoying but enduring once-in-a-century floods. One year, it's wildfires Down Under; another year, it's flooding.  Finally, Tuesday is National Puppy Day. What's not to like about puppies?

The View from the Hermitage, Day 370

Given that I slept relatively well last night, I'm going to attribute today's total fatigue to yesterday's vaccination. I feel drained. The Professor notes that it's clear I did not get the placebo, not that anyone is on this massive non-clinical trial. The Sons got their clearance to make appointments for their first doses. Son #1 gets his shot on Tuesday, while Son #2 gets his on Wednesday. They're getting the Pfizer vaccine as I did. We should all be good to go by the end of April. 

Yesterday, I promised photos of the quilt repair in progress. When I repaired Son #1's quilt, I patched the top with new fabric as matched to the old as I could find. I also put new batting under the repaired quilt, added a new backing, and quilted it with the original quilt acting as the top of a new sandwich. Son #2 requested that I not put in any new fabric unless absolutely necessary and that I not add new batting. He said that would make the quilt too warm to sleep under. 

Here's the repaired quilt on its way to being pinned to a new backing. It's a Trip Around the World pattern.

Unfortunately, I did not take photos of the damage to the front of the quilt. It was extensive on the two shorter ends of the rectangle. The two long sides weren't that bad. Two of the fabrics were much cheaper than the others and in much poorer shape. The damage in most places was tears along the grain of the fabric, as if the fabric had just separated. In other places, the fabric had just evaporated. Here's a close-up of a small piece of the repaired top.

I closed the straight tears by zigzag stitching to hold the sides together. I also zigzagged over all the seams to stabilize things before I started to fix the tears. For small holes, I put a couple sets of zigzag stitching beside each other to fill the hole. The photo above shows one of the areas for which I had to add fabric. There was no way to fill that large of a hole with stitching alone. As you can see, the zigzag stitching pulled the two sides a bit closer and distorted some of the squares and borders. It also made the back look a bit funky.

Because Son #2 did not want any additional batting, I'm adding a new backing to cover up the funky stitching see above. I realize that should I be called on to repair more damage, this nice new backing will again feature funky stitching, but that's life. 

The original quilt was tied, but with almost three decades of love, all the ties had come out. The batting was wadded up in spots. I cut out what was wadded up around the outside and figured that the lumps in the middle of the quilt will give it character. I plan to machine quilt around and between all the squares and then tie it to resemble the original. It will be my gift to Son #2 for his 31st birthday. The repairs are far from perfect or, perhaps even, from passable. They don't need to be. He will love having it back and, having done some sewing himself, will know the time put into it. 

On the non-quilt front, Finland is the world's happiest country for the fourth straight year, followed by Denmark, Switzerland, Iceland, and the Netherlands. The US ranked 19th. We lived in the Netherlands for a year albeit three decades ago (Son #2 was born there), I can vouch that there does seem to be a very different vibe there than here. There didn't seem to be a preoccupation with bigger and better, which may have been in part because in 1989-90, the Dutch were really only a generation removed from World War II. The war was personal there as opposed to here. Having a war outside one's door does tend to put things in perspective. We've visited Iceland several times, and I will offer that there seems to be a much more relaxed feel there. I guess when you live on a very active fault line, you learn to roll with the flow. Speaking of the fault line, there is currently a volcano erupting to the southwest of the capital, Reykjavik, and there have been 40,000 measurable earthquakes in the past four weeks. 

Finally, let's keep this a covid-free post. Louis Tussaud's Waxworks in San Antonio has removed the figure of our most recently deposed president after visitors kept attacking it. Attacks on presidential figures are evidently not all that uncommon. Visitors tore President Obama's ears off six times. Do not ask me why they concentrated on the ears; I know not. President George W. Bush's nose was punched in, but his ears evidently survived unscathed. 

Tomorrow I hope to have the energy to get back to work on the quilt repair. Son #2's birthday is at the beginning of April, four days before The Professor's, but I expect we will wait to celebrate both until after all the vaccinations have had their full effect.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 369

I fought the quilt, and the quilt won? Actually, I subdued Son #2's being-repaired quilt but not without a couple of unexpected side trips. I started to pin it to the new back and noticed a spot I missed when sewing up the worn or torn spots. Looked more closely and found more. Unpinned the half dozed pins I had pinned, and retired to the sewing room to do the new fixes. Back to the pinning table aka the dining room table with a large rectangle of particle board added for protection and pinned the parts inside the borders. As I was pinning the borders, I found three more spots where some zigzag coverup is needed before those parts are pinned. I know I will find more that I may have to fix that will show through the new back, but them's the breaks.

Photos tomorrow. I still need to upload them from the phone to the laptop.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 368

I have not heard that my vaccination appointment for tomorrow has been moved, so the weather forecast must be suitable. They're moving the vaccination site over the weekend. The new one will be in the covered mall and occupy space vacated by JC Penny. Waiting will be able to be done indoors there as opposed to outdoors at the current site, a vacated KMart in a strip mall. I had an email link to a form that I will now not have to complete tomorrow on-site. I do love paperwork reduction.

The likelihood of another covid surge here in the US is still mixed. Looking at new cases during the past week, 13 states had increases, 13 states had decreases, and the rest were basically level. Michigan was the winner (loser?) on the case increase front, seeing a 53 percent jump from one week to the next. The big losers (winners?) on the case decrease front were Alabama, Arizona, California, and Georgia, all of which had declines over 30 percent. At least no state saw the virus results seen in Brazil. It reported its highest daily case increase since the pandemic began, one day after the death total hit a new high. 

US health experts continue to warn about relaxing mitigation measures too early. They say that Europe's spike in new cases and hospitalizations should be a warning for us. European countries were experiencing the same sort of drops that we are and started to disregard mitigation. One other reason for the different results in Europe and the US is that the US is getting more people vaccinated sooner, while Europe is fighting the greater spread of contagious variants. The talking heads warn, though, that those variants will be coming here if they aren't here already, and continued vaccinations are vital. 

The European Medicines Agency says that the AstraZeneca vaccine is "safe and effective." As a result, countries including Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, and Lithuania have announced plans to resume use. Ireland and Sweden say they will announce something "in a few days." The US will be giving millions of doses of its stockpiled AstraZeneca vaccine to Canada and Mexico. Canada just announced that they will start giving the AstraZeneca vaccine to senior citizens. 

Work continues on treatments for covid, work necessary because there will be new cases in people not getting vaccinated or people for whom the vaccine does not work. There are three broad approaches in the works: antivirals that directly affect the virus's ability to thrive inside the body; drugs that calm the immune system; and antibodies that can target the virus taken either from the blood plasma of survivors or made in a lab. Steroid treatments are also being studied, including the dexamethasone XPot was given and even hydrocortisone. Remdesivir is evidently not as valuable as early research suggested.

Finally, another result of a poll on the pandemic: Republicans underestimate the risks posed by the coronavirus while Democrats overestimate the risks. You probably saw that one coming, right?

The 49-Day Ceremony for my sister-in-law was interesting. My heart broke seeing my brother there all alone. Had hymns been substituted for the chanting, it would have seemed very much like a memorial service or funeral, taking away the incense-lighting. For some unknown reason, the camera on my laptop was not working, so my Zoom square was grey. This gave me the chance to jot down two things said that I want to remember. One was offered by a man who said he had worked in hospice care for decades. He said it was posted at his hospice: The trouble is you think you have time. Isn't it? How many things do we say we'll do later? I'm going to try to do some of those things sooner, I think. The other thought was much the same: I knew this day would come; I just didn't know yesterday that it would be today. And we don't know today if it might be tomorrow. More words to try to take to heart.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 367

St. Patrick's Day! I guess my army green cargo pants will have to count since I didn't feel like finding a green t-shirt to wear. I do have some Irish ancestry but not so much as to ever have relatives going all out on St. Paddy's Day. I don't recall ever drinking green beer in my wayward youth. I would not make a good leprechaun.

This evening I will Zoom into the 49 Day Ceremony for my sister-in-law. She did not consider herself a Buddhist, but she was a practitioner of Zen meditation. The ceremony is being held at the Zen center she frequented. I did a bit of Googling, so I know a little bit about what will be going on. It sounded to me similar to the idea that, upon death, a Christian goes to Purgatory while the question of Heaven or Hell is debated. The spirit of the deceased person remains in the realm between the world of the living and the dead for 49 days; the ceremony lets it proceed to the world of the dead. My brother will attend the ceremony in person. I even cleaned up my office desk in the basement so that I have a quiet place to "attend" the ceremony.

Here in Virginia, the joke is that school is sometimes cancelled because snow is in the forecast. In that vein, the health district coronavirus vaccinations scheduled for tomorrow have been shifted to Friday due to the forecast of rain. I think this is because the location has people lining up outside. I can wait an extra day. 

Even getting vaccinated won't open the door to my visiting China (it is not high on the list of places I would like to go). They are opening up to tourists but only those who have been vaccinated with a Chinese-made vaccine. Getting a visa means you have taken either a full two-dose course or single-dose vaccine at least 14 days before traveling. Negative covid test and quarantine rules still apply. No Chinese-made vaccine has been approved for use in the US. In fact, it is really only used right now in Thailand, the Philippines, Iraq, and Hong Kong. The reported efficacy rates of the Chinese vaccines vary wildly, and it is not known how well any of them block transmission. 

The European Union is considering a covid-19 certificate that would show proof of vaccination, negative test result, or documented recovery from covid. Individual countries could decide which of their current restrictions such as quarantine would be waived for certificate holders.

While acknowledging that people do have the freedom to choose, XPot urged his supporters to get vaccinated. I give him props for that. He did not have to do so, but he did. Thank you,  Mr. XPot. And while we're speaking of the devil, I find it interesting that Russia meddled with the election lead-up seeking a victory for XPot, while Iran did the same seeking his defeat. China evidently stayed above the fray.

The CDC reports that two covid variants first detected in California are "officially" variants of concern. They may be 20 percent more transmissible than the original strain. More worrisome is that it appears some of the current treatments may not be as effective against them.

There was more news about the vaccine disparity between richer and poorer nations. None of it was breathtakingly new, so I'm not going there. I will wonder why one-third of US military personnel have refused to get vaccinated. Do they not trust the vaccines in general, or do they not trust the army that wants them to be vaccinated?

Discussion of the social distance required in school settings is gaining speed. With six feet of distance, a school can serve 50 percent of their student body at the same time. With three feet of distance, that jumps to 75 percent. There are states that already mandate only three feet of distance, and they report on increased risk to students or staff.

In a survey by the American Psychological Association (disclaimer: I was a member of this while I was in grad school some 40 years ago), about half the respondents said that they were worried about re-adjusting to in-person interaction. It seems that lockdown has offered a respite to a lot of people. Some people have essentially forgotten how to socially interact. I sometimes wonder if I am one of them or if I never learned how to do that in the first place. Some people say that they will miss the predictability of pandemic life. It should be noted that in many regards people can choose how much of pre-pandemic normal they want to go back to. Long meditative walks one started to do during the pandemic don't need to be stopped as the pandemic eases. Past pleasures with which one may have reconnected--listening to a certain genre of music, reading a certain magazine--do not need to be returned to one's mental closet. 

Finally, the current crop of high school seniors had a bumper crop of essay subjects from which to choose. The pandemic, Black Lives Matter and civil rights, the value of family. Interestingly, politics and the 2020 election were not popular topics according to the people who know such things.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 366

What's a variant between friends? It seems that the British variant is about to become the dominant covid strain in the US. The scientists and doctors have been predicting this for over a month, so it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. There is another new variant that we should hope does not cross the ocean though in all likelihood it already has. A variant recently found in France does not appear to be more contagious or deadlier than any of the other variants, but it could be harder to detect with traditional testing. It may take multiple tests to tell if you really have covid-19 giving you all the more time to spread it to friends, family, and strangers on the street.

In terms of knowing whether one has gotten covid-19 from friends, families, or strangers on the street, data from the Red Cross suggest that one in five blood donations from unvaccinated people have covid-19 antibodies, meaning that those donors were, somewhere along the time line, infected. We knew we were undercounting things; this may give an idea of by just how much.

As for vaccines, Sweden and Latvia have joined the nations suspending use of the AstraZeneca vaccine. I have not seen mentioned whether the nations suspending the use of one vaccine have another one to use in the meantime. I hope so, because otherwise they're looking at a major interruption. One positive about our use of three vaccines is that problems with one of a non-supply-chain nature should not slow the administration of the others. 

The New York Times yesterday ran a list of 14 lessons we can take from this pandemic to the next one. The lessons as stated below are straight from the Times; any thoughts following are my own. They are probably not that erudite, but thinking about them exercised a bit of grey matter.

1) Prepare for what we can't imagine. Dr. Fauci said in a pre-pandemic interview that the thing that kept him awake at night, worrying, was a respiratory virus of an aerosol nature. That a lot of what we got with this novel coronavirus. But at one point, it was thought that the virus was transmissible through touch, an idea later ruled out. But what if we had a virus that could spread by touch as well as in the air. What if a disease--viral or bacterial--spread both ways? Maybe we need to take our most fearsome fears and consider how we would react to that sort of disease. We can't start by assuming the coming disease presents itself as the current one has. 

2) Put science first. Well, duh, I say, but then I'm the daughter of a biology teacher married to a physics prof and mother to two science-inclined kids. Let's not assume that a disease that presents one way the first day will always present that way. Perhaps something about the host of a virus influences how it spreads or to whom it spreads. We may need to react quickly to stop the spread or treat the symptoms, but that doesn't mean doing so with no basis in fact. 

3) Figure out who gets priority treatment. This seems hard to do at the outset. It seemed clear fairly early on that the elderly were at particular risk from the coronavirus. But what if it's not clear who is more vulnerable or why? As evidence is collected, it needs to be considered in real time as much as possible. This may also tie into resource allocation as well. There were people last spring who actually suggested the elderly should let themselves succumb to covid to free up time and care for younger people with more potential for the future. Should the most vulnerable group be the first treated?

4) Don't leave it up to the states. I've touched on this a couple of times here. A lot of what hasn't worked in the current pandemic might have been avoided if all the states were dealing with things in the same manner. The bars should not be closed in one city but open in the city across the state boundary river. The national sports leagues don't let each team handle things in their own way. The central offices mandate the pandemic procedures all the teams must follow.

5) Stop the mixed messaging. This could be difficult because messages may need to be delivered as knowledge about the pandemic agent is being gathered and assessed. The public probably needs to be reminded more than once that the situation is dynamic and the knowledge base of the virus in question is being built as the pandemic picks up speed. 

6) Invest in the numbers. Pandemic models have changed along the way, but that's what models do. We need to make sure we have the technological resources needed by those developing the models or determining what should be included or not in those models.

7) Be nimble in providing treatment. The lessons learned from testing and vaccinating during this pandemic should be used in the next one. How should a schedule involving multiple and different recipient groups be structured? Be ready to change to deal with issues that arise along the way.

8) Don't let race and class determine who lives and dies. Well, duh. This should not be an issue but evidence suggests it probably will be.

9) Don't be ageist. See above.

10) Communities need to prepare, too. It may be best to control things at a national rather than state level, but the treatment or prevention will likely be administered at the community level. Make sure that the localities have the necessary resources to do what they need to do.

11) Stop with the fringe treatments. See 2) above. We should be past the "it worked for my brother" stage here. If there's no valid reason to think that something might work, don't waste time and money looking into it. 

12) Let teenagers be teenagers. This one is hard to think about in general terms. Is this in relation to teenagers having to work or do child care because of family situations during the pandemic. If parents have lost jobs, should the teenagers in a family not be able to work and help out? I have a hard time thinking of this one in a broad sense.

13) The China problem. Let's not waste time and effort trying to establish blame for the source of a virus. By all means look into the source if that information is needed in terms of treatment or future prevention. While it might be convenient to refer to a virus using the name of a place of origin, it's probably possible to come up with a neutral name that is just as good. 

14) Look into the mirror and see who we are. This seems worth doing apart from any pandemic, and here I admit to going back to the Times article to see how they used it:

"This pandemic has shown us who we are, at a level of clarity that is shocking to most people. It’s hard to imagine there are that many people in our country who really don’t care about others. That is the scariest thing, it takes your breath away and you can diagnose everything else that is happening in our society through that lens. That you could tolerate 500,000 deaths in less than a year is incomprehensible to me, that we are a nation that is so callous."

Let's hope we can take this last one to heart before it comes back to bite us in the next pandemic.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 365

Have you seen the spring break photos from the South Florida beaches? Not a mask in sight, and social distance measured in inches rather than feet. The imperviousness of youth! I seem to recall having it somewhere in the distant past before marriage and children, when it felt as if it were just me and the world looking out for each other. One student this year was quoted as saying, "We're not in the high risk group." I wonder what his mother would have to say about that. I know what I would say to one of my sons were they to pull that crap. I can't say that I don't understand their frustration with how the past year has disrupted the college experience they wanted a year ago and still want today. I just want to yell at them to think about the other people to whom they could transmit the virus when they return home or to school. Think!

During the past week, new covid-19 cases nationwide have averaged about 50,000 daily. Drs. Fauci and Walensky (CDC Director) say that's not a good number to be at. It's high enough to leave us vulnerable to a new surge. They'd be more comfortable with 10,000 new cases daily, and say that's the point at which restrictions could start being lifted. I guess the next month will tell us what we need to know about the mask mandates and occupancy restrictions being lifted now.

Sadly,  covid-19 has taken the life of the last living man of the Juma tribe in the Brazilian Amazon. In 1964, there were six Juma people left. In 1999, the other remaining male died. The last living man passed on February 17. He was the last fluent speaker of the tribe's language, and all the tribe's traditions and rituals died with him. His daughters married members of another tribe and replaced their Juma language and traditions with those of their husband's tribe.

While I am ecstatic about having a vaccination appointment, not everyone would be. One quarter of the members of the House of Representatives have refused to get vaccinated, have not reported getting vaccinated, or are avoiding vaccination for medical reasons. The medical reasons one I can handle; the others give me problems. According to the results of another poll, the following portions of each group say that they will not choose to be vaccinated: 49% of Republican men, 41% of all Republicans, 6% of all Democrats, 25% of Black respondents, 28% of White respondents, and 37% of Latino respondents. That's a lot of people who will still be wide open to contracting the virus. 

I loved the news that Yo-Yo Ma spent the 15 minutes of wait time after his second vaccination playing the cello. Evidently a hush fell over the large room when he started to play. I'd have been surprised had one not. I smile just thinking of how the music probably washed over people, comforting some who were understandably nervous, reassuring others that they were doing needed work, providing a meditation mantra for those so inclined. I don't anticipate such an occurrence at my own vaccination, but I can imagine what it might have been like. 

Problems persist with the AstraZeneca vaccine and its possible link to blood clots. AstraZeneca notes that no causal link has been found between the vaccine and its recipients who suffered clots afterwards. Countries that have suspended its use include Italy, Norway, Denmark. Iceland, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Germany, France, Spain, Netherlands, and Indonesia. This doesn't send a very encouraging message to those countries still using it and those people still receiving it. AstraZeneca vaccine has not yet been approved for use here in the US. Not having read any reports of what the results of the various stage trials were, I'm not really sure what to think here other than that we have three vaccines in which we have confidence, and can probably get by without a fourth. That said, whether there is a causal link needs to be established since there are countries for which this might be the easiest vaccine to obtain and use.

The Grammies were last night, and here I can declare myself a loser in the game of life as far as current music goes. Big winners included Beyonce, Megan Thee Stallion, Billie Eilish, and H.E.R. I could not tell you one thing about the music of any of those four artists or groups, nor would I recognize any of their music were it to start playing right now and drown out the sound of the dishwasher. I'm good with Lady Gaga and Taylor Swift, or are they considered maximally mainstream? Back when I drove places, a year ago before our pandemic present came about, the radio in my car was tuned to an oldies station or NPR. What can I say? I feel old.

The View from the Hermitage, Days 363 and 364

Today marks 52 weeks or one year of blogging this amazing pandemic. The newspapers of the last couple of days have been full of retrospectives on that year in relation to all sorts of things--sports, travel, schools, work, food, and more. Had I not kept this journal of my own, or my family's, passage through the past year, I'd be kicking myself now. I know it. I was trying to figure out recently why it often seems as if there are not enough hours in my day to do the various things I'd like to or think I need to do. It did occur to me that by the time I troll various news sources writing notes in paper volumes (I'm in my third random booklet) each morning and then sit down in the late afternoon to wrangle those notes into sentences with my own mental wanderings added, that's more than a couple of hours each day. I don't regret taking that time, though. The daily writing has been good for me, and who knows, at some future time, when looking back, I may need to come here and see just when we did something or what we did in response to some event.

Before we move to the pandemic, let's talk Chocolate Peanut Butter pie. Here it is with the chocolate ganache added. 

Son #1 said that there was not enough chocolate. If I make this again, I think I'll swap the graham cracker crust in the recipe for a crust made from crushed chocolate wafers as is in the recipe I have for mocha pie. I might also make extra ganache and put a layer on top of the crust as well as on top of the pie. I probably have to agree with Son #1. The peanut butter taste does overwhelm the chocolate taste right now. 

This pie is sweet and rich, too sweet and rich to end up being eaten mostly by two people, The Professor and me. Son #1 only ate what he did last night because after he runs 50 miles, he'll eat anything and everything. I would make this again to take to a potluck or if we were having friends over for dinner, but I would not make it just for the two of us. 

Yes, it is Pi Day. I had thoughts of making a square pie but decided that given the existence of half of the above round pie in the refrigerator, we did notalso need a square pi. Maybe next year. Or maybe next month, just for the hell of it. 

Dr. Fauci made the rounds of morning news shows today. He made the intriguing comment that the CDC is aware of growing data that suggest three feet of social distancing are okay "under certain circumstances." If that is true and the CDC relaxes its suggested social distance, schools would be able to put more students into a single classroom and relax the distance kids are supposed to keep when in line. Both of those seem to be good things.

Dr. Fauci is also worried about the number of states relaxing restrictions such as mask mandates and restaurant capacities, noting that as long as the virus spreads, the more opportunities it has to mutate which in the worst-case scenario could take us back to square one. It would also scuttle POTUS's hope that more gatherings might be safer for the July 4 holiday. Responding to the news that half of Republican men have no plans to get vaccinated, Dr. Fauci expressed hope that XPot might urge his supporters to get vaccinated. After all, XPot himself was vaccinated. (I really wanted to type "XPot himself was shot," but decided that I really shouldn't).

The other major pandemic news that caught my eye was the continuing discussion of the lack of vaccines in developing countries. The US, for example, has purchased enough vaccine to vaccinate the entire eligible population twice but continues to resist sharing, the excuse being that we need to be "over-prepared" and "over-supplied" just in case. We have purchased enough Moderna, Pfizer, and Johnson & Johnson vaccine to vaccinate 500 million people. There are currently 267 million eligible Americans. Even if children became eligible for vaccinations, the 500 million figure is more than enough. We also hold the rights to 100 million AstraZeneca doses, a vaccine not yet approved for use here but which is being used in some other countries.  

The Quad--the US, Japan, Australia, and India--want to increase vaccine manufacturing with the goal of sending one billion doses to Asian and Pacific Island nations by 2022, or a year from now. China and Russia are using vaccines to gain a strategic advantage. China has pledged half a billion doses to 45 countries. China has also promised enough vaccine to cover all the Olympic athletes and officials should the Tokyo Olympics really happen in July. 

Estimates are that middle income countries will have vaccinated most of their populations by the end of 2022, while 84 of the world's poorest countries will likely still be vaccinating their citizens until at least 2024 and may never reach herd immunity. Given the relative ease of international travel, this may note bode well. While I hope that we will know before then what boosters might be needed when, if we don't then we remain open to re-infection from abroad. I cannot imagine the developed countries closing borders to anyone for a country still doing initial vaccinations. While I understand POTUS's concern that we be prepared for the unexpected in terms of the virus and vaccinations, I would hope that before too much more time passes we actively engage in getting shots in the arms of people in countries that do not have the resources to take care of themselves when it comes to the coronavirus. Do we really want to be the bullies on the global playground saying that we have something others don't?

The View from the Hermitage, Day 362

So I don't forget to mention it, the blog's going black tomorrow. The Professor and I are going to Son #2's cabin so that he and Son #1 can run 50 miles around the property. They were registered to do a 50-miler tomorrow, the one that was their last ultra, pre-pandemic. They were worried about the safety factors and are doing it virtually. When they're done, they'll submit their times, and their shirts and other swag will be mailed to them. The Professor is in dire need of a day away from the internet and cell service. If he doesn't relax a bit, I may have to kill him. Not really, but he is in desperate need of some down time. We'll be leaving at 4:30 am for the 90-minute drive. The Sons will start running around 6:30 and hope to finish in 12 hours about the time it will be getting dark. By the time we get back here, bed will be calling all too loudly.

Note to others: Never click the box at the top of the file list and delete them all in one fell swoop. Had I done that to my gmail Promotions files this morning, I would have missed the email that my name came up in the vaccination list, and here's what I needed to do to register. Had I been awake last night when the message was set, I possibly could have gotten a shot today. Alas, it will be next Thursday morning for the Pfizer vaccine which means a second shot three weeks later followed by waiting two weeks for everything to have started working. I am not touching my list of appointments to make until those two weeks have passed. Anyway, In about six weeks, I'll be able to rejoin the world should I want to.

The March pie is in progress. The peanut butter filling is chilling in the refrigerator, awaiting the chocolate ganache. (That's a pretty cool word, if you ask me.)

We'll be taking it with us tomorrow, since food like this will be called for after a 50-mile run. We're only halfway through March, so I may even get energetic and make another of some sort. 

POTUS gave a little talk last night. He wants every state to have covid vaccines available to all as of May 1. I have no idea if that is doable. I think the registration and scheduling system they're using here might get overloaded, though there is only one more priority group to do here. If they get that group don by sometime in April, they should be doing the general population by May. The key then will be getting enough doses at the right times. 

Of course, the supply issues here pale in comparison to those in poorer countries. Developed countries have relatively easy access to vaccines, while developing ones may be left on their own. The UN Secretary-General says that there are many examples of vaccine nationalism and vaccine hoarding by wealthier countries. He then noted something we developed countries should remember: "The global vaccination campaign represents the greatest moral test of our times." I really hope we get  a passing grade better than a C. 

POTUS also said he hoped we might start to return to normalcy by July 4. By that he meant that small groups of friends or family might be able to celebrate together outdoors. Fireworks, anyone? I think July 4 may be too soon. Enough people have to have been vaccinated so there is not a post-Memorial Day surge or a post-graduation one. The local university has already cancelled graduation as it usually is. If they do a semi-in-person one, it will be for the graduates only, no family or friends. There will atill be parties, though.  

The new wave of cases continues in Europe. Italy is expected to announce closure of schools, restaurants, and shops. They recorded 26,000 new cases yesterday along with 373 deaths. They are in a clear third wave, one higher than the first in spring 2020 but lower than the second at the end of 2020. Will there be enough people vaccinated here to avert another surge? Son #1 and I were discussing vaccine hesitancy this morning. No one I know has expressed any vaccine hesitancy to me, but then my contact with people has been somewhat limits these last 362 days. I worry that there will be enough people declining vaccinations that herd immunity will be just out of reach. 

Of course, I also read that when asked about when the pandemic would end, public health experts say never. The coronavirus will always be part of our environment. If it's another yearly shot, such as the flu shot, I can live with that.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 361

One year ago today, the WHO declared the outbreak of a novel coronavirus to be a pandemic. One year ago today, the US confirmed 1,000 cases of the coronavirus. The earliest models of the virus predicted 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in the US, numbers people in large part did not believe possible. Today, we remain in a pandemic; there is no question about it. Today, the number of cases in the US is nearing 30 million. Today, there have been just under 530,000 deaths. What a difference a year can make. Today, 25 percent of the adult population has gotten at least one shot of vaccine, and one in three Americans knows someone who died from covid-19.

George Stephanopoulos interviewed Dr. Fauci this morning about the one-year anniversary of the official start of the pandemic. Dr. Fauci said that he can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Vaccinations will be critical to getting to that light. He cautioned that public health measures need to be continued, and pulled back only gradually and prudently. He said that the importance of vaccinations needs to be communicated to vaccine-hesitant people. In conclusion, he noted that one year ago this morning he had said, "Things are gonna get much worse before they get better" without realizing just how bad things were going to get. On the Today show, he said he would not have thought there would be so many deaths.

A year ago, Seattle, Washington was one of the first cities drawn into the pandemic and had more covid-19 deaths than anywhere else in the US. Today Seattle's deaths per capita figure is lower than any of the other 20 largest metropolitan areas. How have they done so well? One key factor, perhaps the key factor, is that very early on, politicians and public health experts came together to present a united front to the public. In no small part due to that unity, the public largely complied with the restrictions imposed. Those restrictions through the last year were, all told, among the most stringent in the country. Other factors at play included that Amazon and Microsoft very early on sent employees home to work and that the University of Washington was the first large college campus to move to remote learning. 

How much would have the numbers of the last year changed had the national and some state politicians presented a united front with the public health experts. What if science had not been seen as an enemy? Would deaths have stayed in the 100,000 to 240,000 range forecast a year ago? Would we have recorded 30 million cases? Hindsight is always 20-20. and we can't go back and change things now, so those questions quickly become rhetorical ones. 

NBC News last night urged people to check their cameras or phones to see the last photo they took before the pandemic was declared. They were, it appeared, thinking it would be something that stopped happening during the pandemic such as a party or sporting event. What can I say? on March 11, 2020, I for some reason was walking around our indoor mall and took one photo.

I do not remember what specific business had this notice on the door, as several had something similar. I also remember that several businesses were cutting their hours, not opening until noon rather than 10:00 a.m and closing at 6:00 pm rather than 8:00 or 9:00 pm. Later that same week, I got my last haircut. Because it was same old same old, I did not take a selfie. I also had my last pedicure, but did not think to photograph whatever color my toes were. 

I don't recall that if it really registered with me what changes a pandemic might bring. That started a few days later, on the weekend. The Sons went to run in a 50-mile race not sure if it would even be held. It was, but The Sons agreed that it should not have been. On the Sunday of that weekend, we were supposed to have lunch with friends and go to a play being put on my a local theater company. When the play was cancelled, we cancelled the lunch. That we would be at this for a while must have registered with me then  because that was the first day of this blog. I don't recall how long the blog would end up being, but I thought a pandemic was something that I'd like to remember, for better or worse. And some days have been better, while others have been worse.; through both, it's been a hell of a ride.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 360

One in 10 Americans is fully vaccinated against the coronavirus. The world's richer nations are administering one vaccine dose every second. Yes, every second.  Meanwhile, most of the world's poorest nations have yet to receive a single dose. Papua New Guinea, for example, will get their first doses of vaccine next month, never mind that they are in crisis mode now. At one hospital, 40 percent of new mothers test positive for covid, but there is no way to isolate them from the other new mothers. Because testing is limited, the 40 percent may well be an under-count. Health officials are worried about the burial of the country's first prime minister turning into a super-spreader event.

Elsewhere in the world, the health systems in most of Brazil's largest cities are close to collapse. Over 80 percent of ICU beds are occupied in 25 out of 27 states. Shades of XPot, Presdient Jair Bolsonaro, who had covid at the same time as his wife, has told Brazilians to "stop whining." I do not see things ending well down there.

Interest in getting vaccinated is growing in Texas with the end of the mask mandate. The reaction of some Texans leaves me shaking my head in wonder. A vaccinated nurse who is anti-mask said, "I'm happy about the governor's decision. The masks impeded the herd immunity we need. Now they want to vax so fast." I'm really not sure that the best way to herd immunity is letting everyone get sick. Let's ask Sweden about that. And a bar patron argued, "It's survival of the fittest. My BMI is higher than normal. Obese people are more susceptible to corona, but it's been over a year. I would have gotten it already." I'm not even sure what a smart remark to answer that would be. 

The Democrats in the US Congress are calling for increased funding for the National Institutes of Mental Health to assist in dealing with the mental health implications of the pandemic. I imagine the mental illness problems run the gamut of possibilities and afflict all ages, from children to elderly. Germany has been struggling with mental health issues more during the second lockdown than they did during the first. I can see how thinking the worst is over and then being slapped in the face with the news that it isn't might cause some problems. 

From his new home at Mar-a-Lago, XPot requested a mail-in ballot for a municipal election. Because he requested it one week past the deadline, he could not mail it back but had to return it to  a voting location. Because he never appeared himself, it appears the he had someone turn it in for him. Funny how when other people do it, there must be fraud involved, but XPot can do it himself and not find any. He did say in the wake of the November election that Florida handled absentee ballots honestly as opposed to some other states. I wonder what he would have said had POTUS won Florida as well as Georgia.

Finally, if you happen to be a trophy wife, make sure you're not a mere participation trophy. That's right, a preacher in southeastern Missouri has gone on leave after giving a sermon in which he admonished wives who gained weight after marriage that it was important that their husbands think they looked "hot." He continued, "I'm not saying every woman can be the epic--the epic--trophy wife of all time like Melania Trump. Most women can't be trophy wives, but you know . . . maybe you're a participation trophy." His church is affiliated with the General Baptist Council of Associations which released a statement saying, "General Baptists believe that every woman was created in the image of God, and they should be valued for that reason." Women in the image of God? Damn! God is a woman after all.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 359

Finding coronavirus news was difficult today. Harry and Meghan news? Seemingly everywhere. Journalist Piers Morgan resigned from ITV's Good Morning Britain show after remarks he made about Meghan drew over 41,000 complaints in under 24 hours. Hey, if you're going to do something, do it in a big way. Buckingham Palace issued a statement to the effect that the accusations of racism within the royal ranks are troubling and will be investigated. So far, any fallout from the interview has been on the royal family not Harry and Meghan. 

I found some results from a survey of Europeans about lessons they had learned from lockdowns. It didn't surprise me to read that 70 percent of those who responded felt that a permanent change at work was inevitable and 80 percent wanted to work more from home. Over half--60 percent-- reported that their spending patterns had changed. Seventy-four percent said they were willing to pay more for products made nationally. Half reported valuing relationships more now, while 40 percent wanted more or different space at home, such as a balcony or a garden. One reported noted that the lockdown basically greatly accelerated trends that already existed. 

What have I learned in the year of self-lockdown? I worked from home for more than 20 years, and said more than once that if told to move back on campus to do my job, I would quit. In terms of spending, there are few impulse buys now since all shopping has been done online or by Son #1. Tied into spending, I will buy products even at a higher price from a locally owned business rather than online or from a large chain of stores. Do I value relationships more? I value relationships with specific people more. Some people I thought of as "friends" pre-lockdown, I would now call "acquaintances." I realize I haven't missed these people much if at all.

They may have burned masks in Idaho recently, but only seven percent of Americans say they plan to stop wearing masks in public after getting vaccinated. a whopping 81 percent said they will continue to wear a mask, and 66 percent said that they would continue distancing. Finally, 87 percent said that they would keep washing their hands frequently. The pandemic has had some positive effects and made people more aware of some basic health things such as the value of cleanliness. 

The health folks here have started vaccinating people in my group: ages 16 to 64 with a serious underlying risk factor. I've been anxiously checking email and answering every phone call in hopes it will be how I can make an appointment. Besides Virginia, 36 other states and the District of Columbia have expanded vaccine eligibility for pre-existing conditions. There happens to be some variance between states as to what is considered a pre-existing condition and how serious each condition is. At least 30 states consider Type 2 diabetes a serious factor, while only 23 consider Type 1 diabetes a serious factor. I have no background in medicine, but I would think Type 1 should be more serious than Type 2. There seem to be more ways to treat or control Type 2 than there are for Type 1. 

Fingers are crossed for an email or phone call this evening. I know someone who said that they received their email about scheduling at 10:45 pm.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 358

It's International Women's Day! I'd never heard of this until we arrived in Vietnam in 2009 a day or two before the day. I had no idea why the clerks at the hotel gave me a bouquet of flowers. They were somewhat surprised that I had never heard of International Women's Day in the US. We happened to be in Vietnam on that day in 2012, and then I knew what was going on. I still don't really see it recognized here though it does take place in March which is also Women's History Month.

The morning news seemed led by Oprah Winfrey's interview with the Duke and Duchess of Sussex, aka Prince Harry and Meghan Markle. Some of what they said ran counter to what had been reported earlier. Meghan did not make Kate cry; Kate made Meghan cry. Some sounded a bit like whining. No one told Meghan that even family curtsied or bowed to the monarch. They took her passport, driver's license, and ATM card and seemed to hold her hostage while at the same time suggesting she might want to keep working as an actor. After some random thinking as I worked on the quilt repair, I ended up thinking that if Harry felt trapped, as he said he had, why the hell didn't he share that bit of info with the woman he loved and wished to marry? He also should have filled her in on royal protocol such as when and to whom to curtsy.

Scientists in the Netherlands have run an intriguing study. They invited 1,300 people to the Ziggo Dome, the largest music arena in Amsterdam. All the people were tagged to track their movements. There were five "bubbles" of 250 people each and one bubble of 50 people. Each bubble had different rules. In one, members were constrained in their movements. In one, people were masked the entire time while in another people only wore masks while dancing. The people in one bubble were given a florescent drink and encouraged to sing and scream; the aim there was to see how much saliva was released. Interestingly, even those people asked to keep their masks on dispersed with them as they danced. They are doing similar studies in other environments such as a football match, a business conference of 500 people, an open-air festival, a pop concert, and a cabaret artist performance. 

Thinking of a vacation? Look before you book because 32 percent of global holiday destinations are completely closed to tourists. That amounts to 69 out of 217 worldwide. The destinations closures come with the fact that entrance requirements differ from country to country as do the things you might need to prove in order to get on a plane. Be prepared. And don't forget travel insurance. 

Vietnam has started its vaccination program, starting with healthcare workers. The country has purchased some doses directly and will get the rest from COVAX, the vaccine-sharing plan. Auckland has finished its lockdown; there have been no new local cases. New Zealand has also purchased enough doses of the Pfizer vaccine for their entire population. 

The CDC today released its guidelines on what activities might be open to people who are fully vaccinated. Americans who have been fully vaccinated and waited the two weeks needed for the vaccine to be fully effective can meet with other fully vaccinated people indoor and without masks. Gathering with unvaccinated people should be limited to those people from a single household. It would be okay to visit with healthy children and grandchildren, something I know many grandparents have been hoping to hear. Fully vaccinated people should continue to wear masks, avoid large gatherings, and keep a safe distance when out in the general public. They do not need to quarantine if they may have been exposed, but they should seek out testing if they start to develop symptoms of covid. 

The death toll from covid has been surprisingly low across much of Africa and Asia. Several reasons may be at work here. First, poorer countries tend to be younger than developed ones. They also do not have the number of nursing homes the US has; elderly people more commonly stay in multi-generational families. People tend to be outdoors more in the warmer climates; even in the developed world, being outside is in general safer than being inside. Previous exposure to other forms of coronavirus may give people in these countries slightly different immunity than found here. Finally, some countries reacted to the appearance of covid more quickly and decisively than the US did. 

On the home front, the quilt repair continues. I finally got the fabric I ordered for the back of the repaired quilt. FedEx managed to lose it until I submitted a claim for the cost. After I did that, they moved it out of Memphis, where it had sat for almost two weeks and sent it the rest of the way here. I'm going to wash it a couple of times to get rid of any sizing and to shrink it appropriately. I have two more borders to repair before I add the new backing. I am starting to feel confident that I will make it by Son #2's birthday in April. Fingers crossed.