The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 187 (687)

Leading up to the Olympics, over 8,000 people had arrived in Beijing as of Saturday, 211 of whom tested positive for covid. Some experts say in a negative tone that China's "closed loop" and strict covid rules may be better at keeping covid from escaping to the outside rather than protecting the people inside the loop from becoming infected. I thought that was the whole point of the bubble or closed loop. It fits with China's zero covid policy; the counts inside can go as high possible as long as the count outside stays as low as possible. Locals volunteering or otherwise being inside the closed look won't be able to return to their homes until they've quarantined. Quarantine for someone testing positive inside the bubble could be for as long as five weeks. Even the trash will be isolated in keeping with China's opinion that some cases have come from virus on an object or surface.

Austria is ending the lockdown of all unvaccinated people even as it prepares to approve a vaccine mandate for all adults. As of Monday, unvaccinated people can leave their homes. They still won't be allowed to enter nonessential shops, restaurants, or cultural institutions for two weeks. Once the vaccine mandate is in place, failure to provide proof of vaccination could mean a fine of $4,000.

It did not surprise me to see stats counting US adults by their political party and vaccination status. Of Democrats, only nine percent are unvaccinated, 29 percent have had shots but no booster, and 62 percent have had a full set of shots including a booster. For Republicans, the percentages in those same three categories would be 36 percent, 30 percent, and 32 percent. For independents, 22 percent, 39 percent, and 37 percent. In other words, more Republican adults are unvaccinated than have gotten the full shots plus booster. Vaccination makes a huge difference, and so does a booster. The weekly average numbers of deaths per 100,000 people in October and November 2021 (in other words, pre-Omicron) were 7.8 for unvaccinated, 0.6 for vaccinated but no booster, and 0.1 for those with vaccinations including a booster. 

I have learned a bit more about the Omicron family. There are actually four members discovered so far. BA.1 is what we know as "Omicron." BA.2 is the "stealth" variant. There is also a BA.3 that appears to be the product of viral sex, with BA.1 and BA.2 simultaneously infecting the same person with their combination making a new viral hybrid. Finally, there is something called BA.1.1.529 about which I could find nothing but a mention. Right now, BA.2 makes up 82 percent of cases in Denmark, nine percent of cases in the UK, and eight percent of cases here in the US. While Omicron numbers are dropping in most states, the emergence of BA.2 could slow those downward trends.

Of the pandemic, he governor of New Jersey says, "We're not going to manage this to zero. We have to learn how to live with this." He is not the only governor feeling this way. It may take a while, though. Hospitals are still full; some are getting fuller. Deaths are still rising. Once the Omicrons have had their way with us, that endemic philosophy might be the way to go as long, that is, as no other, more serious variant has emerged. And more variants will emerge as long as so much of the world remains unvaccinated. 

My free covid tests courtesy of the federal government are supposed to arrive in today's mail. Here's hoping we have no reason to use them any time soon. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 179 (679)

The CDC here has shortened the isolation and quarantine periods for people testing positive and for close contacts. New Zealand is lengthening them. Isolation for people testing positive is now 14 days, up from 10. Close contacts must isolate for 10 days rather than one week. The covid spread in New Zealand is higher than ever and could reach 1,000 cases in one day. The country is moving to red alert, meaning that businesses and schools stay open and domestic travel is permitted. However, there are mandates for mask-wearing, restrictions on gathering size--100 unless unvaccinated people are there in which case 25 is the limit--and vaccine passes needed to enter most non-essential businesses. The prime minister is postponing her wedding to comply with the tightened restrictions.

It's less than two weeks before the Olympics begin, and Olympic-bound athletes have been going all out to avoid covid. One snowboarder has not seen her family or friends other than her boyfriend since November. Some athletes have celebrated making the Olympic team via FaceTime. The eight members of the Canadian men's curling team live together and train only when the rink is closed and they are the only ones there. The American biathlon team is operating in "roommate pods." Some athletes are skipping extra competitions such as the X Games. An American speedskater explains, "We are playing Russian roulette every single day. You can take all the precautions, wash your hands, wear a mask, and somehow you can still get covid. In my opinion it is luck of the draw at this point."

Here in Virginia, only a couple of counties over, a woman has been charged with misdemeanor communicating an oral threat while on school property and released on a $5,000 bond. Speaking at Thursday night's school board meeting, she said, "My children will not come to school on Monday with a mask on, all right? That's not happening. And I will bring every single gun loaded and ready to ..." She was then cut off but on exiting the meeting added, "I'll see you all on Monday." 

Finally, are we there yet? Are things under control? Not really, says Dr. Fauci. "Control means you're not eliminating it, you're not eradicating it, but it gets down to such a low level that it's essentially integrated into the general respiratory infections that we have learned to live with. ... We'd like to get it down to that level where is doesn't disrupt us, in the sense of getting back to a degree of normality. ... That's the best-case scenario. We have got to be prepared for the worst-case scenario. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but we have to be prepared, which is, I think, that we get yet again another variant that has characteristics that would be problematic, like a high degree of transmissibility or a high degree of virulence."

To date myself, I'll offer that we're not all Bozos on this bus. As long as we keep scientists driving, I'm cool with going a bit farther. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 171 (671)

I've started a new volume of daily notes. This one is pretty thick and has larger pages than many of the other 12 I've used. The first of those started on December 1, 2020. I don't recall what I did for notes before that. I may have used random pieces of paper that went into the recycling bin once I'd finished writing the day's post. 

We're once again awaiting weather here. If there's no post tomorrow, it will be because we again lost power. We sit about 30 miles away from the east side of the Blue Ridge Mountains with the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean a couple of hours to the east. That puts us at the mercy of Mother Nature. She may keep the soft, powdery snow west of the Blue Ridge and send us the ice, sleet, and freezing rain. Or we'll get snow, and the line between snow and the slick stuff will be to our east. We won't really know what sort of weather we're going to get until it starts. 

The CDC has acknowledged that cloth masks offer less protection than surgical masks or respirators. The old language in the CDC's mask guidance: People may choose to use disposable N95 respirators instead of masks "when supplies are available." The new language: "A respirator may be considered in certain situations and by certain people when greater protection is needed or desired." Basically, a well-fitting respirator such as an N95 is better than a well-fitting disposable surgical mask or a KN95, and all of those are better than a cloth mask. The bottom line is that you should "wear the most protective mask you can that fits well and that you will wear consistently." 

We can request free rapid test kits starting on Wednesday. The website, covidtests.gov, is active now and notes that ordering will start of January 19. It will likely take until the end of January for tests to be delivered; delivery will be by the US Postal Service. Each household is limited to four tests. There will be some tests available at some community health centers, rural clinics, and federal testing sites. There are three times an at-home tests should be used: if you start to have symptoms; if you were exposed to a positive person five or more days earlier; and if you are planning to gather indoors with someone at risk, and you want to know that you're negative. 

A not-yet-peer-reviewed study of National Basketball Association players and staff reports that a large percentage still had viral loads over a certain threshold five days after the first positive test. This suggests that people with Omicron may stay infectious for longer than five days, giving credence to the suggestion that a negative test be required in order to leave isolation or quarantine. 

Texas scientists are developing a vaccine called Corbevax that they won't patent, meaning that anyone able to manufacture it will be able to. They say, "Pretty much anybody that can make hepatitis B vaccines or has the capacity to produce microbial-based protein like bacteria or yeast can replicate what we do." They have not yet released clinical data, but reports are that Corbevax is 90 percent effective against the original coronavirus strain and 80 percent effective against the Delta variant. Tests on Omicron are ongoing. The vaccine has been developed on a platform called recombinant protein sub-unit technology. Do not ask me to explain that; I included it only because it sounds so neat. 

It had to happen, that is, the first case of Omicron in Beijing just three weeks before the Olympics open. The infected person's residential complex and workplace have been locked down, and several thousand people have been tested. There will be positive results in those several thousand tests. Meanwhile, the Olympic rules in Beijing are tighter than the rules in Tokyo. Personnel will undergo daily throat swabs. N95 masks are required. Where distancing is not possible, such as in an elevator, talking is prohibited. Spectators are asked to clap instead of shouting or singing.

If someone is asymptomatic and tests positive, they will be sent to isolation in a dedicated hotel. They will be given meals and may open windows, but they won't be allowed to leave their 270 square foot room.  Athletes can request fitness equipment. Asymptomatic people can leave isolation after testing negative on two days. Symptomatic people will go into hospital isolation. To leave, they must have two days of negative tests and three days with no fever. Their symptoms must also be lessening.  

And now we wait, for whatever weather might develop, for Omicron or another variant of concern likely to arise, for whatever Mother Nature throws at us next. As a psychologist, I know that if you can't change the stimulus, you can try to control your reaction to it. How about we say that we live in truly interesting times, which was a curse not a blessing.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 492

This just in! In the event you've thought my comments about the Olympics still being on were in bad taste, the CEO of Tokyo 2020, the local group putting on the Games, said today that a last-minute cancellation of the Games could not be ruled out given the rising numbers of covid cases. There were 1,387 cases Tuesday, the second highest day since January 21. There are now more than 70 cases linked to the Games in some way. There are five parties that would likely have to agree in order for the Games to be cancelled now or stopped while in progress (I can't imagine that happening, but if things were to get to the ultra-mega-superspreader lever): the International Olympic Committee, the International Paralympic Committee, the Tokyo 2020 Organizing Committee, the Japanese government, and the Tokyo metropolitan government. A Tokyo public health expert has declared that the Olympic bubble system "is not working well ... kind of broken." The plans did not include it, but there has been interaction happening between people there for the Olympics and local residents, people who live there. To recognize the efforts required to (try to) hold the Games during a pandemic, the Olympic motto has been amended to "Faster, Higher, Stronger--Together" or, in Latin, "Citius, Altius, Fortius--Communiter."

A bit more international news: As of August 9, US citizens and permanent residents will be allowed to enter Canada as long as they have been fully vaccinated for at least 14 days. Canada hopes to welcome visitors from other countries as of September 7. No word yet on when the US will reciprocate and allow Canadians to visit us. India's excess deaths during the pandemic could be 10 times the official toll, making it India's worst human tragedy. I would certainly call three million deaths a human tragedy. The US will send over one million Johnson & Johnson doses to Gambia, Senegal, Zambia, and Niger as well as three million to Guatemala.

The week of July 3, the Delta variant accounted for 50 percent of new cases in the US; this week, it accounts for 83 percent. The number of new daily cases is up 66 percent from last week and 145 percent from two weeks ago. The average number of new cases per day has tripled in the last 30 days. I find those numbers frightening. More frightening numbers: The average number of hospitalizations has risen 21 percent in the last 30 days, while deaths, which usually lag weeks behind cases, rose 25 percent in one week to average 250 per day. That's far below what it was at one point, but not at all where it could be if more people would get vaccinated. The 30 percent of Americans who are not yet vaccinated say that nothing is likely to persuade them to get inoculated. Their "no" is a hard "no." While some cities such as Los Angeles are reinstating mask mandates, the mayor of New York City has said he will not, adding," Masks have value, unquestionably, but masks are not going at the root of the problem. Vaccination is."

In news unrelated to the pandemic, Jeff Bezos became our second billionaire astronaut this morning. The flight went just as planned. Watching the rocket used to propel the capsule touch down in the center of a marked circle may have been more impressive than watching the capsule come down using three parachutes. The announcer said that two of the three could have failed and, while the landing might have been bumpy, one parachute would be enough. While making muffins and cookies today (for my mom on her 89th birthday tomorrow ... Happy Birthday, Mom!), I went back and forth on whether, were I to win one of those huge lotteries, I would most like to go to inner space (to my mind, outer space would be orbital while inner is sub-orbital) for a couple minutes of weightlessness and what is apparently a hell of a view of Earth or to the depths of the ocean. It may still be the case that we know more about the outer space above us than we do about the depths of the oceans. No weightlessness obviously, but a chance to see something no one else ever has and very few people ever will.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 491

Consider yourselves warned that today is Monday and on the coming Sunday we will retire to Son #2's cabin for eight days with no wifi and only intermittent cell coverage. I expect that I will do what I did last year and write a daily post while there then post them all when I get back here. Day 500 will happen while we're there, probably with champagne to toast.

Today is being called Freedom Day in Britain as covid restrictions stop, and the prime minister is in quarantine after being exposed to the health minister who has tested positive for covid. Covid case numbers continue to surge, hitting level seen during the January surge. Death and hospitalizations are not up, though, ... or, as Son #2 would add ... yet. The prime minister is in quarantine for 10 days as part of the National Health Service's test, trace, and isolate program, a cell phone app that pings users who have been in close contact with someone who tested positive. The prime minister initially said that he would take part in a pilot program that would let him avoid quarantine, but angry public backlash changed his mind. He said that it is time to move away from government restrictions and to an era of personal responsibility, and that the easing of restrictions was "irreversible." That said, there are already rumors about new restrictions to be put into effect in the fall. Frighteningly, at least to me, the chief scientific adviser has said that 60 percent of covid hospital admissions had received two doses of vaccine. At least in the US, I think they are only counting a case in a fully vaccinated person as a breakthrough infection if the person requires hospitalization.

Singapore saw 163 new covid cases on Monday, the largest daily number since August 2020. One hundred six of the cases were linked to the Jurong Fishery Port while 19 were linked to karaoke bars. The health minister says that the two clusters are linked and that the numbers are likely to rise in the coming days. At least their vaccination campaign is moving faster than most of the other Asian ones with 47 percent of the residents fully vaccinated. Singapore's population is almost six million, and there have been 63,000 cases and 36 deaths.

Canada's vaccination rate is now higher than the US rate. According to the stats in that article, 49 percent of Canadians are fully vaccinated, and 70 percent have gotten at least one dose. The same percents for the US were given as 48 percent full and 55.5 percent with at least one dose. In the EU, 43 percent are fully vaccinated while 55.7 percent have gotten at least one dose. Canada certainly looks like the winner to me. 

News flash! The Olympics have not yet been cancelled or postponed, though 33 staff members or contractors who are Japanese residents working on the Games have tested positive, as has a teenage alternate on the US women's gymnastics team. I'd been wondering what would happen to a team when a member or members tested positive. Athletes who are close contacts of someone who tests positive, such as a teammate, will be allowed to compete if they test negative within six hours of competition. I'm waiting to see if a team will be unable to field enough players to compete. The International Olympic Committee's sports director notes that "there is no such thing as zero risk" and that the Olympic Village would be a "covid-safe environment but not covid free." Speaking of the Olympic Village, there is video of a male gymnast jumping on one of the cardboard beds to show just how strong it is. As for intimacy, the playbook outlining safety measures advises athletes to "avoid unnecessary forms of physical contact such as hugs, high-fives, and handshakes." Over the weekend, 87 percent of Japanese surveyed were worried about Japan's hosting the Games. And Toyota, one of the prime corporate sponsors,, has said that it will not run any Olympic-themed ads during the Games. 

To complicate K-12 school in the fall, the American Academy of Pediatrics recommends that all children over the age of two wear masks when returning to school regardless of their vaccination status. I know parents who are worried that a vaccine might not be available for their children under the age of 12 until early 2022. I wonder what they'll think of this wrinkle.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 465

Let's start with the Olympics in general and condoms in particular.  In 2016 in Rio, 450,000 condoms were distributed via vending machines in the Olympic Village with signs advising "Celebrate with a condom." Tokyo will be distributing the condoms as athletes leave to go home. In general, the Japanese are not happy about the Olympics happening. Kaori Yamaguchi, a member of the Japanese Organizing Committee and a bronze medalist in judo in 1988, noted, "We have been cornered into a situation where we cannot stop even now. We are damned if we do and damned if we do not....The IOC also seems to think that public opinion in Japan is not important." For a country famous for consensus and uniformity, the Olympics are pretty much a slap in the face of the overwhelming feeling the Games should not be held. A political scientist at Tokyo's Sophia University described the situation thusly, "It's a bit like a gambler who already has lost too much. Pulling out of it now will only confirm the huge losses made, but carrying on you can still cling to the hope of winning big and taking it all back."

Experts in the US say that the Delta variant could cause "full-on resurgence" in the coming months, and could result in over 3,000 deaths per week even with a 75 percent vaccination rate. Delta is forecast to account for 90 percent of cases in the EU by the end of the August. India has designated the Delta Plus variant as a variant of concern. 

College students are starting to react to the vaccine mandates put in place at so many colleges and universities. Eight Indiana University students--two incoming freshmen, two incoming sophomores, and one each of senior undergraduate, incoming first-year Law, MBA, and doctoral candidate--have filed suit in US District Court claiming the vaccine mandate is in violation of the 14th amendment and state law. Six of the eight have received exemptions from vaccination on religious grounds.

Let's have an intermission on covid stuff and look at the most expensive cities in the world in 2021. The rankings are based on the cost of housing, food, transportation, and 200 other items in comparison to the prices in New York City. Here we go, most expensive on down: Ashgabat, Turkmenistan; Hong Kong; Beirut; Tokyo; Zurich; Shanghai; Singapore; Geneva; Beijing; and Bern, Switzerland. There were no countries from the Americas in the top 10. New York City, the highest us city, was 14th. Los Angeles was 20th, and San Francisco was 25th.

Back to covid but still ranking, this time in terms of seven-day cases per 100,000 people. The top (as in low numbers of cases) five are South Dakota (4), Vermont (5), Connecticut (7), Maryland (7), and Nebraska (7). The bottom five are Colorado (48), Wyoming (51), Arkansas (54), Utah (64), and Missouri (76). South Dakota at peak covid had 160 new cases per 100,000 people each day. The four cited here is per week.

The US has fully vaccinated over 45 percent of its population. The whole world has fully vaccinated just 10 percent of its population. By continent, the percents for fully vaccinated are North America (30), Europe (28), South America (11), Asia (8), and Africa (less than 1). Somewhat by continent, the doses given per 100 people would be North America (95), Europe (60), Asia (35), Latin America and the Caribbean (34), Oceania (19), and Africa (3). I'd love to see those single digits become double ones and continue up from there, but I'm not going to get too optimistic that it will happen.  

On the travel front, how about Airvnv, and that's not a typo. Guam is inviting travelers to Visit and get Vaccinated. Participating government-approved hotels are selling package deals including accommodations, meals, airport transportation, covid tests, health monitoring, and two doses of Pfizer or Moderna or one dose of Johnson & Johnson. Travelers will get tested at home before leaving and will quarantine for seven days on arrival in Guam with the first vaccine dose given on the second day there. Clearly, this is not going to be cheap. The hotels being used run from $150 to $350 per night, with the covid measures adding an extra $880. For Pfizer or Moderna, a traveler could be there for two to three weeks. The UAE are preparing a similar program.

On the resolution front, I realized that I had not yet done June's Instant Pot dinner. Perusing an Instant Pot cookbook, I offered The Professor a choice of Mexican, Indian, or Italian. He chose Italian so sometime in the next week I'll be making Penne Bolognese. I'll post a review here once we've tried it.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 445

Bulletin: The FDA advises not eating cicadas if you are allergic to seafood. You have been warned.

Axios is retiring its weekly map of the US showing increases or decreases of covid-19. There have been fewer than 20,000 new cases per day spread across a population of 331.5 million people. Here's hoping there's no need to bring it back come winter. We can probably thank the vaccines. Huffington Post published six signs that vaccinations work:

(1) Infections are falling as vaccinations increase. The downward trend started when 40 percent of the population had gotten at least one dose. Israel saw a similar pattern.

(2) Hospitalizations and deaths are down. 

(3) Cases among kids are declining as more adults get vaccinated. There has been a 50 percent reduction over the last four weeks. As before, a similar pattern was seen in Israel.

(4) Vaccinated people directly exposed to covid aren't getting sick. There have been only 1,600 breakthrough infections in 123 million people. 

(5) A Kentucky nursing home outbreak did not lead to serious illness for the majority of those who were exposed.

(6) The same as in (5) happened with an outbreak on the New York Yankees.

They also listed a few other things that will help end the pandemic. First is a clearer understanding of how long immunity lasts. Expanded genetic sequencing and treatment options will also help, as will fast (and at-home) testing. Finally and possibly, to me, most important is a change in how our culture approaches illness. The coronavirus pandemic could be something of a wake-up call in that respect.

Vaccine mandates at colleges and universities could be problematic for international students. Some of the vaccines used in other countries have not been approved by WHO, meaning that many universities will not accept them. It's not clear either whether giving someone who has gotten one of the non-approved vaccines a different vaccine is safe. US universities do not want to lose international students, who are a source of major revenue. China sends the most students to US higher education followed by the 200,000 India sends each year. At Columbia University, one-third of the student body comes from overseas. Indiana University is getting around 200 phone calls and 300 emails daily from 6,000 international students with questions and concerns about the mandate. There is one system, though, that has found a workaround. The California State system plans to accept any vaccine that has been authorized by a regulatory body in the country of origin.

In Japan, the most senior medical adviser and the head of a panel of experts advising the government said that holding the Olympics now would be "not normal." The president of the Tokyo 2020 Olympics organizing committee has said "we cannot postpone again." Japan is seeing a relatively high number of deaths among Asian countries, and only 2.7 percent of 126 million people have been fully vaccinated. It's hard to know how things will go as July 23 approaches. Some 10,000 of 80,000 volunteers have pulled out of helping. More than 100 municipalities in Japan say that they will no longer host teams from abroad.

I read that there is a "realistic possibility" that Delta (India variant) is as much as 50 percent more transmissible than Alpha (UK variant). Modelling suggests that a variant more than 40 percent more transmissible could lead to daily hospitalizations exceeding those recorded over the winter. In other words, we're not out of the woods yet no matter what the US numbers look like.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 437

According to WHO, global covid cases dropped 14 percent last week, with the largest decreases happening in Europe. Overall case numbers and deaths are still high, though. We are by no means out of the woods yet, but hopefully we are now on the path. There are even two new studies out that suggest covid immunity may last a year or even a lifetime. They suggest that most people who were infected and later vaccinated may not need boosters.

Was that an optimistic comment I just made? I don't know. I did learn, however, how optimistic different groups are with respect to reopening. Specifically, men are more optimistic than women, parents are more optimistic than people without children, and the rich are more optimistic than the poor. The biggest dividing line on economic optimism is access to health care and health insurance. I have to admit that the fact that parents are more optimistic than people without children seems a wee bit counterintuitive to me. Perhaps it is wishful thinking that reopening will put children back in school, back at after-school or sports sessions, and give parents a bit of a break. As for men being more optimistic than women, 14 percent of mothers who stopped looking for work during the pandemic said that they did no to look after their family. A comparable percent for men? That would be three.

With only 58 days until the Opening Ceremonies, scientists warn that "canceling the games may be the safest option." Japan remains in a state of emergency with some 70,000 active cases and a mere five percent of the population vaccinated. The IOC does have a plan; unfortunately, it relies on unsuccessful mitigation measures such as temperature checks and contact tracing apps. Not to mention that: (1) No safety guidance has been given in terms of the risks associated with outdoor and indoor activities. (2) Athletes and support personnel have to bring their own masks. (3) Little detail has been provided on testing frequency and hotel isolation as well as limited contact tracing. (4) Athletes contracting covid will have limited insurance coverage. 

One of the major Japanese newspapers is also calling for Olympic cancellation, warning that the Games are a threat to public health and will place additional strain on the country's health service. This paper is one of several Japanese media organizations listed as official Tokyo 2020 sponsors who have called for the Games to be cancelled. Additionally, a prominent economist warns that the economic loss from cancellation would be small compared to the cost of the emergency measures needed if the Games turn out to be super-spreader events. 

POTUS is calling for a new or continued investigation into the origins of the coronavirus, and he would like the report ready in 90 days. I can't imagine that the Chinese will be especially cooperative, which means we will likely never know with any degree of certainty just how the spread started. I can see the value in knowing, though, in terms of avoiding or lessening the chances of another such pandemic. Were it to be determined with a reasonable degree of certainty that the virus was released deliberately or accidentally from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, what would the next step be? A slap on the knuckles and advisement not to let it happen again? Or would we simply use the knowledge to help guard against future viral releases?

I broke down over the weekend and ordered drapes for the dining room. They arrived today, and I think the color is just right. I still need to get the sort of rod that is needed, but I'm optimistic these will work. Don't ask how many other windows need new drapes or curtains. I don't need any more reminders than I get every time I see the unmatched colors of the old window coverings that we put up to serve as insulation through the winter.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 375

In international news, the Olympic torch has begun its run through Japan to arrive in Tokyo for the opening ceremony in July. I may actually watch a bit of the Games to see what they look like with no or only Japanese spectators. I will likely not watch anything like gymnastics that I do not consider a sport, but I have been known to watch swimming or track and field.

The Suez Canal stuck ship saga continues. They are bringing in Dutch and Japanese teams to help in getting the Ever Given ungrounded and re-open the canal. It isn't going to be easy. The ship is one of the largest container ships in the world; it weighs 220,000 tons and is 400 meters or roughly a quarter of a mile long. I loved the way that Peter Berdowski, the CEO of a Dutch dredging company, described the situation: 

"It's like an enormous beached whale. It's an enormous weight on the sand. We might have to work with a combination of reducing the weight by removing containers, oil and water from the ship; tugboats and dredging of sand."

Upon hearing this Son #1 reminded me that they sometimes explode beached whales that have died rather than haul the body out to sea. It's just easier that way. The person I would hate to be right now is either of the Egyptian pilots on board to help guide the ship through the canal. Their careers as pilots may have come to a screeching halt. It must have been a hell of a wind and sand storm to push a ship that large that far out of alignment.

In more national news, tomorrow CSPAN will start coverage of the 2024 presidential race. I feel like a crotchety old biddie remembering that in my younger days, the presidential race really didn't start until January of the election year. 

In slightly-related-to-the-pandemic news, the Grape Nuts shortage is over! What? You did not know there was such a shortage? Yeah, neither did I. Due to supply chain constraints and high demand (more people working from home means more people eating breakfast at home), the cereal shelves were bereft of Grape Nuts. Some people paid over $100 for one box. By way of apologizing for the shortage, Post will reimburse anyone who paid more than $10 for a box up to a total of $115. You do need receipts to prove your claim.

In the past week, covid cases rose in 19 states, one of which was Virginia, and declined in 14 states. Michigan was the winner (or would that be loser?) showing an increase over 50 percent. On the other end, Arizona and Nevada showed 45 percent lower. The fact that the case rate in Virginia was increasing albeit only slightly makes me wonder a bit about the lessening of attendance limits at certain events.

AstraZeneca has released new data that it says shows their vaccine in highly effective. The found a prevention rate of 76 percent using all 32,000 people in the trial. Why they released the earlier figure of 79 percent efficacy based on only 141 people I do not know. Was it someone accidentally releasing info not meant for release but once it's out there, you have to act on it? I have no idea. Sweden has re-started giving the AstraZeneca vaccine to people 65 and older. They say that the link between the vaccine and the development of blood clots cannot be ruled out for younger people, but the vaccine appears safe for seniors.

Florida has been vaccinating people by age group. Next week they will start vaccinating anyone over 40. They expect to be vaccinating anyone over 18 by early April. I managed to get an appointment for my second Pfizer shot. It's a few days past three weeks from my first one, but that's no biggie. It will be nice to start on my list of things I've been putting off dealing with such as arthritis in my thumbs.

Internationally, Brazil is in its worst days of the pandemic. Hospitals are near collapse, and daily death totals are at record highs. Perhaps more concerning, it is the young people who are getting more seriously ill and dying at a higher rate. On March 20, 2020, their head of state echoed XPot (that's our ex-president for any new arrivals here who might not have figured that out on their own), saying "...and soon it will pass." One year later, they've passed 300,000 in total deaths and are seeing about 3,000 each day. Only the US under XPot has suffered greater losses. 

Russia has started production of its third vaccine even as phase three trials for that vaccine continue. The new vaccine is CoviVac and follows Sputnik V and EpiVacCorona. Which of the three Vladimir Putin got or supposedly got is not known. At least one pundit thought it strange that there are no photos of Putin's vaccination. He seems to relish excuses to take his shirt off, and wouldn't this have been a good one? 

The View from the Hermitage, Day 304

One week until Inauguration Day. The intervening weekend could reveal much about what might happen on Inauguration Day, but then again it might not. Will the type of gatherings--peaceful or not--in state capitols this weekend mean that the same is coming for the inauguration? Not that I'm thinking the weekend will be peaceful. Already various states are contending with a level of behavior not seen before in this country. A guillotine was erected outside Arizona's state capitol. Lawmakers evacuated capitol buildings in Georgia and New Mexico as crowds gathered outside. Crowds in Idaho cheered as reports of the Capitol riot came in a week ago. Oregon's governor was burned in effigy. Some demonstrations, though, were peaceful including the one in Kansas. And in Nevada, supporters of The Lame Duck drank beer and listened to rock music. 

The FBI has said that some of the Capitol rioters arrested will face sedition charges. To be clear about what that meant, I looked up "sedition." Dictionary.com gave two definitions. First, "incitement of discontent or rebellion against a government." Second, "any action, especially in speech or writing, promoting such discontent or rebellion. The way I read the second one, The Lame Duck did commit an act of sedition in his pre-riot remarks last week.

The latest report I heard said that 20,000 National Guard troops would provide security around the Capitol for the inauguration. They will be armed. The crowds will not be as large as they were when The Lame Duck was inaugurated. Between the threat of violence and the pandemic, crowd size in the hundreds makes much more sense than that in the thousands or millions. Former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is turning on The Lame Duck. He is backing impeachment in part because impeachment will make it easier to purge The Lame Duck from the Republican party. 

The folks planning security have to consider every possible scenario. Some of the worst ones being considered are people with firearms trying to attack dignitaries, "suicide type aircraft," and drone attacks on the crowds. I'm sure they're considering suicide bombers as well as a dirty bomb, too. I wonder if there's a table around which people sit and throw out ideas of what might transpire. I'd really like to be a fly on the wall if that's the case.

On the coronavirus front, the US set a new record for the number of people dying in one day. I saw several numbers, but all were in the neighborhood of 4,400. This number of deaths in one day exceed the total number of deaths in South Korea or Japan since the pandemic began. The national death total is over 380,000. Could we have 400,000 by the end of the month? Your guess is as good as mine. 

Japan has widened its state of emergency due to the coronavirus, and there is real concern over the Olympic Games set for July. If the Games cannot be held this summer, they will not be held at all. One concern is whether overseas visitors can be allowed. This decision needs to be made by March to give adequate time for travel plans to be made. Even with no spectators or no spectators from overseas, there is the question of whether the Olympic Village could become another super-spreading event. With no overseas visitors, might they spread the athletes out more? They could put some in the Village and the others in the empty hotels. It might be interesting to be a fly on the wall when the go or no-go decision is being discussed.

Fasten your seat belts and shoulder straps. It's going to be one hell of a week.