The View from the Hermitage, Day 371

I've been at this blog now for 53 weeks. The pandemic was declared on March 11, 2020; I began this blog on March 16, 2020; and I got my first dose of coronavirus vaccine on March 19, 2021. It's been a hell of a year that seems much like a minute. When I started this pandemic journal, I don't think I really grasped just how long this could go on. When talk of a vaccine arose, I read that the quickest vaccine development and approval had been something like four years; I think that was the mumps vaccine. I never would have thought that one year and one week after the novel coronavirus pandemic was officially declared, I would be getting vaccinated against it. The first people vaccinated got their doses only nine months after the pandemic had been declared. 

When I think back on the events of the year, events both public and personal, the time seems to have passed so quickly. The year becomes, if not the minute suggested above, maybe a day. If I hadn't been writing this, I would not have appreciated all the events that the day-long year contained, what happened before some other thing, and what mistakes I made thinking of what would happen when. Adding in some political news has helped put things in  in a broader perspective, and there's been lots of political news from which to pick and choose. Some story lines, such as New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's meteoric rise and fall, I have deliberately not discussed; others, of course, such as the pre- and post-election event, I could not overlook.

Another happening of about one year ago was a spring break from which some students were told not to return except to pick up essentials such as computers and texts from their dorm rooms. Schools at all levels became online distance learning operations overnight. Some did it better than others, but I can't fault anyone's efforts. What school system would have thought as classes began in August or September that those classes would come to an abrupt halt in March?

Spring break is happening again, and it's not clear any coronavirus lessons have been learned in the past year. Miami Beach, Florida has been packed in large part because Florida has fewer restrictions in place than the other traditional spring break destinations. The local government has tried to put things on hold at least for 72 hours. For those 72 hours, restaurants, bars, and sidewalk cafes must close at 8:00 pm. I don't think that will do anything about the unmasked, not-so-distanced crowds on the beaches, though. Will there be a noticeable effect when all those students return to their respective dorms, apartments, or homes, to roommates their own age, or younger, or elderly? It would not surprise me.

Michigan, where early attempts at mitigation were soundly protested, now has the fourth fastest growing rate of new cases behind New Jersey, New York, and Rhode Island. In Michigan, that rate translates into a 92 percent rise in cases in the last two weeks. Michigan also ranks second for the presence of variants, behind only Florida. New York City has recorded its first case of the highly contagious Brazil variant. It is worth noting that the person presenting that case was a 90ish-year-old person with no travel history. In other words, they didn't bring that variant home from Brazil. Besides being highly contagious the Brazil variant has, in some cases, reinfected people who have had and recovered from covid-19. There are 48 other cases of this variant in at least 16 states; Florida has the most, 21. I wonder how many of those spring breakers will take the Brazil variant home as a souvenir. 

Other random things include that the organizing committee has confirmed that no international spectators will be allowed at the Tokyo Olympics (July 23 - August 8) nor Paralympics (August 24 - September 5). Closer to home, the Canadian Conservative Party has voted not to recognize the climate crisis as real; the vote was 54 to 46 percent. Eastern Australia is not enjoying but enduring once-in-a-century floods. One year, it's wildfires Down Under; another year, it's flooding.  Finally, Tuesday is National Puppy Day. What's not to like about puppies?

The View from the Hermitage, Day 351

XPot came out of the woodwork yesterday to speak at CPAC, on the stage shaped pretty much exactly like a rune found on the uniforms of Hitler's SS, a rune representing racial purity. As expected, he hinted at running for President again in 2024. Various Republicans, when asked if they would support him in 2024, have given less than straightforward responses. Moscow Mitch McConnell for one said that he would support the nominee of the Republican party but did not specify who he thought that person might be. Bill Cassidy, one of Louisiana's two Senators, said, "If we idolize one person, we will lose." Again, no names were named. I will offer a positive comment about XPot's remarks. He said that "everyone" should get vaccinated against covid-19, a remark that basically surprised the hell out of me.

Listening to or reading the remarks of some people who should know, I'd say we're at a crossroads of sorts in terms of the novel coronavirus. The CDC director says, " at this level of cases, with variants spreading, we stand to completely lose the hard-earned ground we have gained. We have the ability to stop a potential fourth surge of cases in this country." The WHO director says, "We need to have a stern warning for all of us: that this virus will rebound if we let it. And we cannot let it. If countries rely solely on vaccines, they are making a mistake. Basic public health measures remain the foundation of the response." Finally, from the WHO's emergency expert, "the issue is of us being in control of the virus and the virus being in control of us. And right now, the virus is very much in control."

On a related note, global infections rose last week for the first time in seven weeks. At least a second African country has received vaccine via WHO's Covax program. Little by little, as long as we don't shoot ourselves in the foot by reopening too soon. (I type this as I am thinking of states or entities that are reopening too soon.)

Continuing on a less than optimistic thread, FEMA has issued a list of foreseeable events that could take us as a nation past the breaking point. 

Earthquakes. A 9.2 on the Richter scale earthquake is quite possible in the Pacific Northwest. There could also be serious quakes on the San Andreas fault in California or the New Madrid Seismic Zone in the border between Arkansas and Tennessee. And as long as we're on earthquakes, Iceland had more than 10,000 earthquakes of varying intensities in the last five or six days. That is one every few minutes. Most have been on the spit of land on which Reykjavik sits. No fatalities and no damage, so far, but then Iceland is prepared for crap like this.

Extreme Solar Flare. Such an event could cause an electromagnetic storm that would wreak havoc with electrical systems. If you thought what happened in Texas not too long ago was bad, this could be much worse.

Cyberattack. We've already been attacked in a major way once (that we know of) by Russia according to the intel folks. 

Hurricanes and Wildfires. They happen every year and seem to be getting worse every year than they were the year before. 

In other words, there are catastrophes out there that will strike us, and probably when we least expect them. We have been warned.

Finally, a couple of other random facts to take the edge off the preceding downers, the first one being a covid fact. Gila County, Arizona, outside Phoenix, has gotten to the point at which any resident over 18 can walk into a clinic without an appointment and get vaccinated against covid. Petaluma, California has voted to outlaw gas stations. I do not know if the regulation has a grandfather clause for existing stations, but I would think it would have to. It's National Women's History Month. Finally, if you're in Des Moines, Iowa, there is a pizzeria selling a 16-inch, Fruit Loops pizza for $20. The pizza is topped with cream cheese, mozzarella cheese, vanilla icing, and Fruit Loops. If you're into sweets, it actually doesn't sound that bad if you take out the mozzarella cheese. 

We will not be having Fruit Loops pizza for dinner tonight. I think it will be a breakfast for dinner night with eggs, pancakes, and vegetarian bacon (the only kind we have on hand). We haven't had breakfast for dinner in too long a time.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 346

What could knock the pandemic and politics off the front page? Tiger Woods. CNN's New Day this morning led with the Woods story in a feature that lasted a nontrivial amount of time. Perhaps it was their way of fighting pandemic fatigue or political overload. The accident was certainly a newsworthy event, but I think they may have overdone it a bit. I have to say that his career as a professional golfer may well be over. Yes, he came back from playing 18 holes on a broken leg (two stress fractures) as well as from various back issues, but this may be too much for him at age 45 or thereabouts to overcome. He does have mental strength going for him. He, as most athletes of his caliber, knows his body intimately and what it is capable of doing. Will he push himself too hard? Probably at least once, but that's to be expected. I wonder if it will be the lead story again tomorrow. 

The governor is relaxing some of the restrictions he imposed to deal with the post-holiday surges in covid case numbers. He's getting rid of the midnight to 5:00 am stay-at-home curfew and letting bars and restaurants sell alcohol until midnight, when they must close. Outdoor gatherings can now have up to 25 people; indoor gatherings will stay at 10. Outdoor venues can now have 1,000 people or 30 percent of the capacity, whichever is less. These are go into effect March 1 and will stay in effect for a month. If things have continued to improve, they'll be lessened even more. 

The FDA says that the Johnson & Johnson one-shot vaccine was safe and effective  in trials; the drug may be approved for use as early as next week. Its percent effectiveness is a bit lower than the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines currently being given, but it is 85 percent effective at preventing severe cases of covid-19. Perhaps just as important if not more, it can be stored under common refrigeration. It will not require a freezer of any kind. 

The local university is not having its usual week-long spring break; it is instead giving four single-day breaks spread throughout the semester. I know of several other universities doing the same. Still, there is concern over spring break and whether beaches could turn out to be super-spreaders. I would say that there is no wondering needed; if young people gather in the numbers they usually do, there will be super-spreading going on. Apart from spring break, there is concern that variants could lead to another surge in the coming weeks. We're not out of the covid woods yet and won't be for some time, especially not if don't start getting vaccines to developing countries. I don't even want to think about the US turning into a fortress to keep the unvaccinated masses at  bay. 

Other randomosities I found interesting. Someone is marketing a Ted Cruz pinata. (I'm sure someone can comment on how to type a n with a tilde.) The University of Michigan shut down a campus library for two days after discovering venomous Mediterranean recluse spiders in the basement. These spiders are cousins of the brown recluse spiders we have around here but even more reclusive. The university now says it over-reacted and closing the building was not necessary. The Perseverance rover's parachute contained a secret message written in binary code: Dare mighty things. A Czech free diver set a new record by swimming 266 feet under ice, holding his breath for 2 minutes and 42 seconds. He did this wearing only swim trunks and goggles. Since I know you're wondering, the water was 37F.

Finally, I found another pandemic recipe to add to the regular rotation. I made Oven-Roasted Asparagus last night to go with broiled salmon and rice. The link will take you to the recipe. If you like asparagus and are not allergic to garlic, you'll probably like this recipe. (It could easily be made without garlic.)

The View from the Hermitage, Day 144

This seems to be a gross day. Can we make it better by pondering questions such as if a baker's dozen is 13, is a baker's gross a baker's dozen baker's dozens or 13 items 13 times over, for 169? Or is it a mere dozen baker's dozens or 13 items 12 times over, for 156? Using Google, I just learned:

"A gross is usually a dozen dozen. But, in baking, it can sometimes be ten dozen (called a short dozen). From this, we can derive the possibilities for a baker's gross: a standard dozen of baker's dozens: 12 x 13 = 156 count."

And there we have it.

No new news on my mom's situation. They will be repeating the covid-19 tests of all residents and staff next Tuesday and/or Wednesday. If it's anything like last time, it will be a week before the results are known. I am trying not to be too worried since there is nothing at all that I can do. I could pretend it's a school shooting and offer my thoughts and prayers, I guess. At least Mom will be distracted this weekend watching the PGA Championship. Her favorite golfer is Tiger Woods; there are a few others she likes as well. Her least favorite golfer is Phil Mickelson. She loves it when he misses the cut.

News surrounding the novel coronavirus continues to center on restarting schools and sports. The photos of unmasked crowds seem to all be from schools right now, at least on weekdays. I have tried to remember whether I would have felt invincible enough as a teenager to say no to the mask. Probably not given that my father was a biology teacher.

My dad was a biology teacher story: I lived in Montana until I move up to grade 6. Sometime around 1964, there was a rather impressive flood. We watched from the front steps as waters from the Missouri River came down one side of the street while water from the Sun River came down the other. The street ended up covered in several feet of water. It did not make it into our house except for the flood in the basement. The other neighborhood kids got to wade and swim and splash and otherwise enjoy the new neighborhood pool, but not the kids of the biology teacher. Fast forward a little while, and the kids of the biology teacher were the only ones not being taken in for typhoid shots.

A quilting friend related the story of her nephew's upcoming wedding. She will not be attending it since the bride and groom do not want anyone there to wear a mask. It would evidently tarnish their perfect wedding. Needless to say, my quilting friend will not be attending. What makes the story even more amazing is that the nephew is a firefighter/paramedic, and the bride works in an administrative job at a hospital. One would think that they of all people should know the risks and not ignore them. Personally, I think a masked wedding would be kind of fun. I think a the masks would make it all a more memorable event than would guests ending up seriously ill a few days later.

Today is the anniversary of the debut of the atomic bomb over Hiroshima, Japan, when war took on an entirely new dimension. We are still the only country to have deployed atomic or nuclear weapons strategically rather than just for testing. May we remain the only country to ever have done so.

My current challenge is to find the plastic container in which the postage stamps are stored. That should have been one of the last items stored before the floors were done. At least it should have been. And as such, it should be one of the first items found in the various places we stored things. I ordered more stamps today that will be here in five to seven days, but the search for the plastic container will continue. I'm sure that when we do come across it, I will then remember having put it where we found it. I am also sure that we will come across it the day the newly ordered stamps arrive.

Everyday life continues in the hermitage while the virus continues its rounds outside. There is so little that I can do in so many respects, so don't worry, be happy. That's a lesson I probably should have learned years ago and not from a global pandemic.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 46

I check overnight news first thing in the morning as I brew or sip that first cup of coffee. Since it's between 5:00 and 6:00 am, I check the BBC and The Guardian before I check any US sites. After all, the business-hours day is underway across the pond while we're still waking up over here. Here's a look at the coronavirus-related stories there right now (I know that it is not right now first thing in the morning but my blog my rules).

It seems that Russia's Prime Minister, who is most definitely not Vladimir Putin believe it or not but someone named Mikhail Mishustin, has tested positive for the novel coronavirus. He's gone to hospital and suggested that his First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov should take his place. Two days ago, Putin extended Russia's lockdown until May 11 and admitted that there is a shortage of PPE there. I wonder if Vladimir and He Who Shall Not Be Named have compared notes on the pandemic yet.

Over here but reported over there, He Who Shall Not Be Named has repeatedly insisted that the US has run more tests than all other countries combined. The BBC article disputes this, noting that the US total does not exceed the sum of the totals for Spain, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom. The US also lags in the number of tests per capita run. He Who Shall Not Be Named's claim was most likely made in the context of his America First efforts.

Much to the chagrin, well, maybe, of He Who Shall Not Be Named, an intelligence report has concluded that the novel coronavirus was not "manmade or genetically modified." Mother Nature can be a real bitch at times.

The media across the pond even report on events at the state level here, such as the report that Georgia's (the state here, not the country over there) count of coronavirus cases continues to rise. So much for the leveling and decreasing recommended before a state starts to reopen.

Finally, though it's not news in this household, the two doctors/scientists on the White House's coronavirus task force must walk a tightrope between the science and angering He Who Shall Not Be Named. Anthony Fauci has done that a bit more successfully than Deborah Birx in that he has not had to or just has not tried to stroke He Who Shall Not Be Named's ego while stating the science. I still remain in fear that Fauci will leave the task force of his own free will or not because I feel a whole lot more comfortable with him there.

So much for some of the news as reported somewhere other than here. I find it on a more stable, less bombastic foundation than reports on the same topic in the US media. That's probably due to the distance or less emotional involvement in what is being reported.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 25

Boris Johnson is out of intensive care though still in hospital. John Prine has died from covid-19 complications. Older son says that New York City will begin reporting suspected covid-19 deaths as well as confirmed ones. More countries have stopped using or testing hydroxychloroquine. Nearly 40 residents of a senior care facility near Richmond have died; fortunately, the local facility in which my mother resides has had no cases. Various predictive models have been updated and become more positive given that more people are observing mitigation measures than was originally thought. And so go the major and not-so-major headlines.

Will the pandemic become old news or smaller headlines as spring passes into summer? It is the lead story and several follow-up stories on the TV news every night. A non-coronavirus story is more common on the front page of The Washington Post now than it was when I started writing these posts, but coronavirus stories still predominate. Will we get or are we getting numb to it? Is it becoming the rule rather than the exception? Will such extensive coverage remind people to maintain distance and other measures needed to slow the spread? Or will people begin to tune it out as same old same old?

One of the countries we were going to visit in May was Turkmenistan. Since Antarctica is not a country, Turkmenistan is the only country in the world not to have any reported cases of covid-19. The why is both funny and not so funny. After reading the explanation of their zero cases, I suggested to the husband that maybe we didn't want to rebook the same tour for 2021. The fact that Turkmenistan won't report cases now makes it possible there could still be some into next year. I'm more comfortable waiting a longer while before doing that tour.

And so continues life in the hermitage. No deep thinking, no rush to learn the latest, no resentment at not being able to be out and about. Life in the bubble ain't half bad.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 23

Snippets of what's going on right now:

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been moved to intensive care. They say his condition has worsened but he is not on a ventilator. He first went to hospital Sunday when his symptoms "worsened." This reminds me of Donald Trump's Saturday trip to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center to "begin portions of his routine annual physical exam." Unscheduled? On a Saturday? Johnson's going to hospital on a Sunday evening suggests that "worsened" may be more extreme than one might think.

I know multiple quilters or sewists who are making cloth masks or surgical caps for whoever needs or wants them. One woman in my quilt guild has made over 200 masks and has “orders” for over 100 more. She and her daughter basically assembly line the things. The daughter cuts out the fabric and folds and pins the pleats while the mom does the actual sewing. I will admit that I suffered a minute or two of guilt pains telling myself that I should be making masks or caps rather than quilting a quilt that I first conceived more than five years ago. Then I remembered what the masks I made for the family looked like, and I know people are better off without any masks I might make. 

President Trump has been promoting hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for covid-19 despite the lack of testing it has undergone in terms of the current coronavirus. One such test, in Sweden, was halted after the drug's side effects were too severe. I looked at hydroxychloroquine years ago  as an anti-malarial for a trip to Cambodia. My primary care doc warned me against using it. At the time, I was having regular migraines, and the doc was worried about neurological side effects. Needless to say, I went for a different anti-malarial, and I would not want the drug were I to have covid-19, even as a last resort.

Turkmenistan, one of the countries we would have visited on our cancelled Silk Road trip, so far reports no coronavirus cases. The autocrat (aka dictator) running things has also banned use of the word "coronavirus." That's one place I would not want to be theses days. There are actually lots of places I would not want to be, but Turkmenistan would be near the top of the list.

And so the days somewhat run together. The numbers go higher each day, expressed with the caution that there are many cases and deaths not counted. Reports come from other countries; some are viewed as more truthful than others. Each day there are reports of, usually, elderly people of note (musicians, actors, authors, and the like) who have passed due to complications from covid-19. Each day I wonder more and more just where this is going and how it might end. The trite answer is that we shall see.

And as I close this, the BBC reports Boris Johnson is "stable in hospital and not on ventilator."

Russia? Really?

I was taking a break from trying to put a zipper into a sweater just now and decided to check some of the statistics associated with this blog. Evidently, there have been more page views from Russia (32) than from the U.S. (30). Say what? I find it hard to believe that the words I write or the photos I share (there will be more soon once post-holiday busyness passes) are of that much interest to people in Russia. I don't know anybody in Russia! The Russian mafia perhaps, or the source of all spams and Internet hacks? It at least keeps life interesting to ponder the significance of this statistic in either frequentist or Bayesian terms.