The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 216 (716)

Lots of poll results today but first there's news I don't think many parents wanted to hear or read. It appears that the Pfizer vaccine is far less effective in five- through 11-year-old children than in older children. While it still offers protection against hospitalization, it appears to offer almost no protection against infection even just a month after vaccination. This may be due to the fact that the dosage is but one-third of the dose adults and teenagers get. In support of this, for the two weeks ending January 30, there was 67 percent effectiveness in 12-year-old children versus 11 percent effectiveness in 11-year-old children. Given that biological differences would be minor here argues that the problem is a dosage one. Giving younger children the higher, teenage dosage may not be an option. The higher dosage may cause too many fevers, a side effect particularly dangerous in young children. I know parents who home-schooled their children planning to send them back to classrooms once vaccinations of younger kids started. I don't want to think how they're feeling right now.

According to an Axios/Ipsos poll, only 35 percent of people think the current administration has done a good job restarting the economy and supporting small businesses. While 58 percent think that the administration did an excellent or good job on supporting vaccine development and delivery, only 43 percent trust the current administration to provide accurate information on the virus. This is down from 54 percent a year ago.

In a Washington Post-ABC poll, 60 percent of Americans say that some restrictions should remain in place. A majority, 64 percent, think that the virus is only "somewhat under control" or "not at all under control." Even so, most say that they have fully or mostly returned to pre-coronavirus activities. In an Economist-YouGov poll, 52 percent of Americans say they support mask mandates for indoor spaces. In an Associated Press-NORC poll, half of Americans support mask mandates when people are around others outside their homes. Fewer than three in 10 oppose such mandates. In the same poll, 38 percent say that restrictions should end, while 58 percent believe some measures should remain in place to control the spread of the virus. 

A CDC analysis of blood samples suggests that 140 million Americans have had covid, about double the number usually cited. There are 14 states in which half of people carry covid antibodies in their blood. Wisconsin leads the list at 56 percent. The others, in descending order, are Iowa, Illinois, Ohio, Wyoming, Texas, Indiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee, and Louisiana, followed by Georgia with 50 percent. New York came close, at 49 percent. 

Finally, a preprint from Canadian researchers reports the first case of deer-to-human covid transmission. The variant involved was said to have a "new and highly divergent lineage." It had 76 consensus mutations including 37 previously associated with non-human animal hosts, 23 of which were not previously reported in deer. The claim of deer-to-human transmission is based on identifying a "epidemiologically-linked" human case from the same geographic region and sampling period.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 373

Hurricane season is coming, and the season-to-be has a change in store. No longer will the "extra" hurricanes that occur after the name beginning with Z bear Greek letters as names. Only two years, one of which was 2020, have required the use of Greek letters, but future years going past Z will use names from a supplemental list. Why? There are three reasons. First, too much emphasis on the name can mean less on the potential impact of the storm. Second, Greek letters cause confusion when translated to other languages. Finally, several letters that occur in succession sound very similar. Can you say "zeta, eta, theta" three times in rapid succession? Several names have been retired, including Dorian, Laura, Eta, and Iota. Yes, Eta and Iota wouldn't have been back no matter their intensity.

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases has raised questions about the efficacy of the AstraZeneca virus. An independent panel of experts helping oversee the trial said that AstraZeneca essentially cherry-picked the data that would  be most favorable, overlooking the most recent and most complete data. AstraZeneca noted that the data were interim results but appeared to be "consistent" with more recent data, but said that it would reissue further results within two days. AstraZeneca is the vaccine that the US promised to Mexico and Canada; interestingly, the deal was considered a loan. It is not clear how those loans might be repaid. 

The past month has seen changes in some behaviors as vaccinations have increased. Comparing February 19-22 with March 19-22, more people are going out to eat; in February, 33 percent reported they had, while March was up to 45 percent. The percentage of respondents saying they had visited friends or relatives rose from 39 percent in February to 48 percent in March. The number of people saying they had stayed home and avoided other people fell from 74 percent in February to 67 percent in March. Finally, 11 percent of respondents in February reported that their emotional well-being had improved compared with 17 percent in March.

So, people appear to be letting their guard down as more people are vaccinated, but--you knew there had to be a "but" in there, didn't you--it's the unvaccinated people who are returning to activities outside the home. Fifty-two percent of unvaccinated Americans reported seeing friends and relatives outside the home in the past week, compared with 41 percent of those Americans who had been vaccinated. That's a bit of a disconnect there. 

The effects of living under lockdown have, of course, been studied from several angles. For example, people aged 50 and older tend to be coping better with pandemic stress, independent of income or education. A study coming out of the University of British Columbia reports that older ages were associated with less concern about the threat of covid, better emotional well-being, and more daily positive events. Another study reports that Americans living under lockdown have gained about two pounds per month. Forty-two percent reported an undesired pandemic weight gain; the median gain was 15 pounds. Another 18 percent reported a median gain of 12 pounds. I may offset one of those people gaining weight given that I've lost 16 pounds over the past year. I'd like to lose a bit more, but am quite satisfied with the 16 pounds. It puts me at the weight I was at before two shoulder and one knee surgeries slowed or stopped my ability to work out at the same level.

In non-lockdown poll results, Republicans and Democrats were asked if they thought various things were a "critical threat to the vital interests" of the US. The results for cyber-terrorism and North Korea's nuclear weapons had the two political parties virtually equal. The results for cyber-terrorism were 81 percent of Republicans and 82 percent of Democrats. For North Korea, 77 percent of Republicans and 76 percent of Democrats. The results for the economic power of China were 78 percent of Republicans seeing it as a critical threat compared with 52 percent of Democrats. Results for the military power of Russia were in an opposite direction. Thirty-nine percent of Republicans saw that as a critical threat compared with 49 percent of Democrats. 

Last but not least, Harvard University is expecting a "full return" to campus for the 2021-22 school year. They do plan to spread students out more in terms of campus lodging, but are looking at in-person classes. All classes have been virtual this academic year.