The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 31 (531)

Yesterday's blog post had nothing to do with it, but spectators going to the US Open tennis tournament and over the age of 12 will now have to prove they have gotten at least one dose of vaccine. There is still no mask mandate. The mayor's office initially said that only spectators in the stands would need proof of vaccination. The US Tennis Association extended that to apply to anyone coming onto the grounds of the tennis center. I don't think anyone in the NYC mayor's office or the USTA reads this blog, so I cannot take credit for what seems to me a very good decision. Now if they would only add a mask mandate given that people will be sitting shoulder to shoulder.

A large British study found that people infected with the Delta variant are twice as likely to be hospitalized than people infected with the Alpha strain. The analysis was of over 40,000 infections in England. The results add to the evidence that Delta may cause more severe illness. Fewer than two percent of the cases were in fully vaccinated people, so no conclusions were made on the difference in vaccination status. 

A Florida court okayed school mask mandates there. Parents had argued that the state constitution requires keeping schoolchildren safe and secure and that masks accomplish that in this pandemic. More kids are hospitalized in Florida right now than at any other point. 

Ida is expected to hit Louisiana as a Category 4 hurricane tomorrow. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina came to shore 16 years ago tomorrow as a Category 3 hurricane. Louisiana hospitals are preparing as best they can; there is not time to transfer patients in inland hospitals that would not in any case have room for them. There is no planning scenario for a Category 4 hurricane hitting while hospitals are full. This week, Louisiana recorded its highest ever single-day death toll, 139.

The father of a Texas anti-vaxxer currently being moved from an ICU to a hospice also had covid. The father still thinks the vaccines should not be mandated but said, "Personally for me, I'm not so hesitant about the vaccinations now. I've stared down that barrel and quite honestly, it scared the hell out of me."

Declassified portions of the Wuhan report say that US intelligence agencies have not been able to determine if the coronavirus came as a result of an accidental leak from a lab or emerged naturally. Five intelligence communities say the cause was "natural exposure to an infected animal through an animal infected with it or close progenitor virus." Another agency says, with moderate confidence, that the source was a "laboratory-associated incident" that  most likely involved "experimentation, animal handling, or sampling by Wuhan Institute of Virology." All agencies agree that the virus is unlikely to have been created as any kind of biological weapon. They also do not believe Chinese officials knew about the coronavirus at the time of the outbreak.

Two quick one-liners that  might be interesting. POTUS is suggesting that vaccine booster shots should perhaps be given earlier than at eight months after the second shot. Also, half of 12- to 17 -ear-olds have gotten at least one dose of the Pfizer vaccine. That's the only vaccine currently approved for teenagers, though Moderna has applied for such approval in Canada.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 390

The pandemic has wreaked havoc with travel and tourism. As a result, there are cities that will pay you to come be a tourist. Payment is typically in the form of "money" that can be spent at local businesses, though one city, Santa Maria Valley, California, is giving out straight $100 Visa gift cards. Redmond, Washington, home of Microsoft, offers $100 in Geek Out Gold that can be spent within Redmond. In similar fashion, Glenwood Springs, Colorado offers $100 in Glenwood Gold, again spendable with the city. That alone would not motivate me to fly across the country, but if someplace more local were offering such a deal, I'd at least think about it. 

Forecasters are predicting another overactive hurricane season, with 17 named storms, four of which will be major as defined by Category 3 or higher. And just for yucks, here are the 21 basic names for this year's storms. Numbers 22 and over will get names from a supplemental list. The 21: Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Elsa, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Julian, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam Teresa, Victor, Wanda.

The Norwegian prime minister has been fined for breaking coronavirus rules when she organized a family birthday party for 13 people when the limit on such gatherings was 10. She was fined 20,000 Norwegian kroner or $2345.83 in US dollars. 

The Brazil variant has now been identified in at least 15 countries in the Americas. There are actually two Brazil variants, P1 and P2. P1 is the more problematic. It has three mutations to the spike protein rather than the one that P2 has. It is P1 that is capable of re-infecting people who had had covid and thought they had natural immunity. March was Brazil's deadliest month since the pandemic began, and the variants are a large part of that.

Mississippi yesterday had 73,000 slots open for coronavirus vaccinations, but can't get enough people to sign up to fill all the slots. Right now, 25 percent of Mississippians have gotten at least one dose compared to the national 33 percent. Other Southern states such as Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, and Georgia show similarly low vaccination rates. For Mississippi, demographics are a big part of the problem. It is a reliably Republican state, and Republicans are more apt to be vaccine hesitant or resistant. It also has a large Black community, and Blacks nationwide have been slower to get vaccinated than whites. One Mississippi statistic that jumped out at me was that 55 percent of college-educated Republican women under the age of 49 will not get vaccinated. I have to wonder just what courses their colleges required, especially science and history ones.  

There has been a large drop in the number of doses of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine delivered this week. Last week, 1.9 million doses were distributed; this week, only 700,000. The federal government divided doses between states based on each state's adult population. For example, California received 572,700 doses last week but will get only 67,600 this week. Perhaps more troubling, the European Medicines Agency is looking into the Johnson & Johnson vaccine after reports it was linked to blood clots. First, AstraZeneca, and now Johnson & Johnson. I must admit that it makes me glad I got the Pfizer vaccine.

Back to scanning slides and strolling Memory Lane. As for the Lane, here's me in 1976, at the top of Mt. Katahdin in the state of Maine. I'm not sure I could do the hike/climb to the top now at age 64, but it was no problem for the 20-year-old me.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 373

Hurricane season is coming, and the season-to-be has a change in store. No longer will the "extra" hurricanes that occur after the name beginning with Z bear Greek letters as names. Only two years, one of which was 2020, have required the use of Greek letters, but future years going past Z will use names from a supplemental list. Why? There are three reasons. First, too much emphasis on the name can mean less on the potential impact of the storm. Second, Greek letters cause confusion when translated to other languages. Finally, several letters that occur in succession sound very similar. Can you say "zeta, eta, theta" three times in rapid succession? Several names have been retired, including Dorian, Laura, Eta, and Iota. Yes, Eta and Iota wouldn't have been back no matter their intensity.

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases has raised questions about the efficacy of the AstraZeneca virus. An independent panel of experts helping oversee the trial said that AstraZeneca essentially cherry-picked the data that would  be most favorable, overlooking the most recent and most complete data. AstraZeneca noted that the data were interim results but appeared to be "consistent" with more recent data, but said that it would reissue further results within two days. AstraZeneca is the vaccine that the US promised to Mexico and Canada; interestingly, the deal was considered a loan. It is not clear how those loans might be repaid. 

The past month has seen changes in some behaviors as vaccinations have increased. Comparing February 19-22 with March 19-22, more people are going out to eat; in February, 33 percent reported they had, while March was up to 45 percent. The percentage of respondents saying they had visited friends or relatives rose from 39 percent in February to 48 percent in March. The number of people saying they had stayed home and avoided other people fell from 74 percent in February to 67 percent in March. Finally, 11 percent of respondents in February reported that their emotional well-being had improved compared with 17 percent in March.

So, people appear to be letting their guard down as more people are vaccinated, but--you knew there had to be a "but" in there, didn't you--it's the unvaccinated people who are returning to activities outside the home. Fifty-two percent of unvaccinated Americans reported seeing friends and relatives outside the home in the past week, compared with 41 percent of those Americans who had been vaccinated. That's a bit of a disconnect there. 

The effects of living under lockdown have, of course, been studied from several angles. For example, people aged 50 and older tend to be coping better with pandemic stress, independent of income or education. A study coming out of the University of British Columbia reports that older ages were associated with less concern about the threat of covid, better emotional well-being, and more daily positive events. Another study reports that Americans living under lockdown have gained about two pounds per month. Forty-two percent reported an undesired pandemic weight gain; the median gain was 15 pounds. Another 18 percent reported a median gain of 12 pounds. I may offset one of those people gaining weight given that I've lost 16 pounds over the past year. I'd like to lose a bit more, but am quite satisfied with the 16 pounds. It puts me at the weight I was at before two shoulder and one knee surgeries slowed or stopped my ability to work out at the same level.

In non-lockdown poll results, Republicans and Democrats were asked if they thought various things were a "critical threat to the vital interests" of the US. The results for cyber-terrorism and North Korea's nuclear weapons had the two political parties virtually equal. The results for cyber-terrorism were 81 percent of Republicans and 82 percent of Democrats. For North Korea, 77 percent of Republicans and 76 percent of Democrats. The results for the economic power of China were 78 percent of Republicans seeing it as a critical threat compared with 52 percent of Democrats. Results for the military power of Russia were in an opposite direction. Thirty-nine percent of Republicans saw that as a critical threat compared with 49 percent of Democrats. 

Last but not least, Harvard University is expecting a "full return" to campus for the 2021-22 school year. They do plan to spread students out more in terms of campus lodging, but are looking at in-person classes. All classes have been virtual this academic year.

 

The View from the Hermitage, Day 205

Where to begin? Well, writing this is distracting me from looking at curtains online. I finally measured some of the windows. The impetus was that the husband was talking about putting up the ones we used to have on each window. The problems with that include that the colors no longer match the rugs, the accent walls, and the general scheme I'm aiming at (Did I just make it sound as if I know what I'm doing?) and that once something is up there, it removes the pressure to find something that works. I'm hoping I can find something online because I really don't want to do in-person retail shopping and expose myself to the world. 

HWSNBN went back to the White House last evening. When he arrived, he went up the steps to the balcony overlooking the south lawn, removed his mask, gave a two-thumbs-up, then entered into a room in which all the people that could be seen were maskless. After that, he had them re-film it because he wanted it to look a bit different when used, probably for campaign purposes. Older son sent me a link to a Twitter feed in which someone had zoomed in to catch HWSNBN's face after he removed the mask. Said footage resides here. It certainly looks to me as if HWSNBN is having some trouble breathing. As one of the doctors said, he's not out of the woods yet.

The aspect of it all that had me looking down and shaking my head was that HWSNBN's campaign is now saying that HWSNBN's bout of covid-19, his personal experience, makes him more qualified to deal with the pandemic than Joe Biden. In other words, not following the public health guidelines is a good thing, and anyone who does follow them is not to be trusted. We should also not let covid-19 "dominate" our lives, because he feels better than he has in 20 years. Can you say, "Steroids are your friends?"

Hurricane Delta (I now have a "Delta Dawn" ear worm) is growing rapidly just south of the Gulf of Mexico. It appeared to go from tropical storm to Cat 4 hurricane in a matter of hours. This is the earliest we've had that many storms; climate change, you know. It's also unusual for nine or 10 of those storms to land on the US. I must admit that if I'd lived in New Orleans, I'd have moved elsewhere by now. 

I just saw a headline that HWSNBN is breaking off negotiations with Democrats over a second stimulus package. That does not hurt us personally, but it will hurt far, far too many people. But they don't need to worry as long as they don't let covid-19 dominate their lives.