One year ago today, the WHO declared the outbreak of a novel coronavirus to be a pandemic. One year ago today, the US confirmed 1,000 cases of the coronavirus. The earliest models of the virus predicted 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in the US, numbers people in large part did not believe possible. Today, we remain in a pandemic; there is no question about it. Today, the number of cases in the US is nearing 30 million. Today, there have been just under 530,000 deaths. What a difference a year can make. Today, 25 percent of the adult population has gotten at least one shot of vaccine, and one in three Americans knows someone who died from covid-19.
George Stephanopoulos interviewed Dr. Fauci this morning about the one-year anniversary of the official start of the pandemic. Dr. Fauci said that he can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Vaccinations will be critical to getting to that light. He cautioned that public health measures need to be continued, and pulled back only gradually and prudently. He said that the importance of vaccinations needs to be communicated to vaccine-hesitant people. In conclusion, he noted that one year ago this morning he had said, "Things are gonna get much worse before they get better" without realizing just how bad things were going to get. On the Today show, he said he would not have thought there would be so many deaths.
A year ago, Seattle, Washington was one of the first cities drawn into the pandemic and had more covid-19 deaths than anywhere else in the US. Today Seattle's deaths per capita figure is lower than any of the other 20 largest metropolitan areas. How have they done so well? One key factor, perhaps the key factor, is that very early on, politicians and public health experts came together to present a united front to the public. In no small part due to that unity, the public largely complied with the restrictions imposed. Those restrictions through the last year were, all told, among the most stringent in the country. Other factors at play included that Amazon and Microsoft very early on sent employees home to work and that the University of Washington was the first large college campus to move to remote learning.
How much would have the numbers of the last year changed had the national and some state politicians presented a united front with the public health experts. What if science had not been seen as an enemy? Would deaths have stayed in the 100,000 to 240,000 range forecast a year ago? Would we have recorded 30 million cases? Hindsight is always 20-20. and we can't go back and change things now, so those questions quickly become rhetorical ones.
NBC News last night urged people to check their cameras or phones to see the last photo they took before the pandemic was declared. They were, it appeared, thinking it would be something that stopped happening during the pandemic such as a party or sporting event. What can I say? on March 11, 2020, I for some reason was walking around our indoor mall and took one photo.
I do not remember what specific business had this notice on the door, as several had something similar. I also remember that several businesses were cutting their hours, not opening until noon rather than 10:00 a.m and closing at 6:00 pm rather than 8:00 or 9:00 pm. Later that same week, I got my last haircut. Because it was same old same old, I did not take a selfie. I also had my last pedicure, but did not think to photograph whatever color my toes were.
I don't recall that if it really registered with me what changes a pandemic might bring. That started a few days later, on the weekend. The Sons went to run in a 50-mile race not sure if it would even be held. It was, but The Sons agreed that it should not have been. On the Sunday of that weekend, we were supposed to have lunch with friends and go to a play being put on my a local theater company. When the play was cancelled, we cancelled the lunch. That we would be at this for a while must have registered with me then because that was the first day of this blog. I don't recall how long the blog would end up being, but I thought a pandemic was something that I'd like to remember, for better or worse. And some days have been better, while others have been worse.; through both, it's been a hell of a ride.
2 comments:
I had a day zero for numbering purposes but practically it started for me at the end of February when I came back from seeing Terri and Gilly in London. I stopped going to my groups the week before they closed because I didn't think it was safe. It was a gradually increasing threat rather than a sudden shock. I still remember the footage from Italy and thinking that it couldn't happen here and look how wrong I was with that.
Saturday Mar 7th, 2020, was when we went to the birthday party for G'son #2 (it had been delayed partly because we were away in Feb) in NJ, and I think the week after was the last midweek Nana visit; the Friday morning yoga class was the last in-person class held. Then everything got crazy.
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