The View from the Hermitage, Day 373

Hurricane season is coming, and the season-to-be has a change in store. No longer will the "extra" hurricanes that occur after the name beginning with Z bear Greek letters as names. Only two years, one of which was 2020, have required the use of Greek letters, but future years going past Z will use names from a supplemental list. Why? There are three reasons. First, too much emphasis on the name can mean less on the potential impact of the storm. Second, Greek letters cause confusion when translated to other languages. Finally, several letters that occur in succession sound very similar. Can you say "zeta, eta, theta" three times in rapid succession? Several names have been retired, including Dorian, Laura, Eta, and Iota. Yes, Eta and Iota wouldn't have been back no matter their intensity.

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases has raised questions about the efficacy of the AstraZeneca virus. An independent panel of experts helping oversee the trial said that AstraZeneca essentially cherry-picked the data that would  be most favorable, overlooking the most recent and most complete data. AstraZeneca noted that the data were interim results but appeared to be "consistent" with more recent data, but said that it would reissue further results within two days. AstraZeneca is the vaccine that the US promised to Mexico and Canada; interestingly, the deal was considered a loan. It is not clear how those loans might be repaid. 

The past month has seen changes in some behaviors as vaccinations have increased. Comparing February 19-22 with March 19-22, more people are going out to eat; in February, 33 percent reported they had, while March was up to 45 percent. The percentage of respondents saying they had visited friends or relatives rose from 39 percent in February to 48 percent in March. The number of people saying they had stayed home and avoided other people fell from 74 percent in February to 67 percent in March. Finally, 11 percent of respondents in February reported that their emotional well-being had improved compared with 17 percent in March.

So, people appear to be letting their guard down as more people are vaccinated, but--you knew there had to be a "but" in there, didn't you--it's the unvaccinated people who are returning to activities outside the home. Fifty-two percent of unvaccinated Americans reported seeing friends and relatives outside the home in the past week, compared with 41 percent of those Americans who had been vaccinated. That's a bit of a disconnect there. 

The effects of living under lockdown have, of course, been studied from several angles. For example, people aged 50 and older tend to be coping better with pandemic stress, independent of income or education. A study coming out of the University of British Columbia reports that older ages were associated with less concern about the threat of covid, better emotional well-being, and more daily positive events. Another study reports that Americans living under lockdown have gained about two pounds per month. Forty-two percent reported an undesired pandemic weight gain; the median gain was 15 pounds. Another 18 percent reported a median gain of 12 pounds. I may offset one of those people gaining weight given that I've lost 16 pounds over the past year. I'd like to lose a bit more, but am quite satisfied with the 16 pounds. It puts me at the weight I was at before two shoulder and one knee surgeries slowed or stopped my ability to work out at the same level.

In non-lockdown poll results, Republicans and Democrats were asked if they thought various things were a "critical threat to the vital interests" of the US. The results for cyber-terrorism and North Korea's nuclear weapons had the two political parties virtually equal. The results for cyber-terrorism were 81 percent of Republicans and 82 percent of Democrats. For North Korea, 77 percent of Republicans and 76 percent of Democrats. The results for the economic power of China were 78 percent of Republicans seeing it as a critical threat compared with 52 percent of Democrats. Results for the military power of Russia were in an opposite direction. Thirty-nine percent of Republicans saw that as a critical threat compared with 49 percent of Democrats. 

Last but not least, Harvard University is expecting a "full return" to campus for the 2021-22 school year. They do plan to spread students out more in terms of campus lodging, but are looking at in-person classes. All classes have been virtual this academic year.