Wednesday, April 15, 2020

The View from the Hermitage, Day 31

He Who Shall Not Be Named has conceded that his black magic is not absolute. He still wants the country opened up as soon as possible, but somewhat realizes he can't hold his breath and get what he wants. I can't imagine that governors don't want things to improve economically, but if that comes at the cost of having to shut everything down a second time, it's not what they want to do.

CNN had information about when the shelter-in-place order runs out in each state that has one. I will admit that I did not read through all 50, but of the thirty or so I did read, Virginia's order lasts the longest. We are also the only state that I know for sure has a physician as governor. I can't imagine that those two facts are not related.

Some reports are suggesting that it may be 2022 before a vaccine is available. I try to imagine if there is a way to open things up economically while still mitigating the virus as much as possible. Certain places or situations do not seem compatible with six feet of distance between people even if six feet may not be enough space. Would it work for family groups or groups of people living together to go to a movie with each group sitting six feet (or some defined distance) apart? I chuckle that my immediate thought after typing that sentence was that masks and eating popcorn really don't go well together. Opening eating establishments to on-premises meals with sufficiently separated tables isn't going to fly in small establishments. And with separated tables, the number of servers or even cooks needed would not be what it used to be. Some staff would be re-hired, but not all. More people would be needed than are for take-out and/or delivery, but still not a full contingent.

Those conjectures assume that people would be interested in going back out to eat or for entertainment. If catching covid-19 were still a non-zero possibility, I don't think I'd be all that interested in going out. That said, I go to very, very few movies and can't remember the last time I went out to hear live music. Eating out is nice, but could be satisfied with take-out or delivery. We haven't done either since we entered the Hermitage. While there are nights when I really don't feel like cooking, we haven't been tempted to go out to pick anything up.

The above discussion also ignores altogether how to reopen schools or public meetings and keep in place the measures needed to ward off the virus. Class sizes would have to be prohibitively small to keep students six feet apart, and there would be no way to keep them six feet apart as they move from one class to another. I know that some private schools here are offering what amounts to "real" classes online, but I don't think that's how the public schools are handling things. The sons did a fair amount of distance learning in middle and high school to meet their academic needs. Those worked well, but the courses were designed for online delivery to highly motivated students who could work well independently.

And that's enough scattered thinking for today.

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