Monday, October 11, 2021

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 75 (575)

We're but three weeks away from Halloween and trick-or-treating. Will it be safe this year? Dr. Fauci thinks so, noting, "I think that particularly if you're vaccinated, you can get out there." This seems a bit off-center since children under 12--the mass of trick-or-treaters--are unvaccinated. Even were the FDA to approve doses for kids ages five to 11 right now, kids could not get fully vaccinated before Halloween if they follow the same two doses some weeks apart followed by two weeks of letting the vaccine do its thing that adults have followed.

Dr. Fauci went on to mention the holidays that follow Halloween. "It's a good time to reflect on why it's important to get vaccinated. But go out there and enjoy Halloween as well as the other holidays that will be coming up...we have to be careful that we don't prematurely declare victory." He did caution against indoor Halloween parties. The US seven-day average number of new cases dropped to 93,814 on Sunday. Dr. Fauci would still like to see fewer than 10,000 per day. Some experts would like to see airlines institute vaccine requirements before holiday travel takes place. A winter surge is definitely not out of the question.

Merck has asked the FDA for emergency use authorization for molnupiravir as a treatment for covid. It is the first antiviral pill treatment proposed for covid and is said to be "relatively inexpensive." Note the "relatively" there; treatment would cost about $700 per patient. That's one-third the price of monoclonal antibody treatments, though. The US government has placed an advance order for enough pills for 1.7 million Americans. Australia, Malaysia. Singapore, and South Korea have also placed advance orders.

The FDA will also be discussing Moderna and Johnson & Johnson boosters this week, Moderna on Thursday and Johnson& Johnson on Friday. They will also hear a presentation on Friday on the effectiveness of mixing different brands of vaccines. Meanwhile, Pfizer will fully vaccinate all eligible people in Toledo, Brazil to monitor a "real-life scenario" of how long Pfizer immunity lasts. It's a big week on the vaccine front.

A French study of 22.6 million people over the age of 50 suggests that vaccinated people are nine times less at risk of being hospitalized or dying from covid than unvaccinated people. Similar findings have been reported in the US, UK, and Israel. Hong Kong says it will only loosen restrictions if vaccination rates rise. Currently, all incoming travelers including residents returning from abroad must quarantine for 21 days. 

Sydney, Australia is starting to reopen after over 100 days of lockdown. They had said reopening could begin when over 70 percent of the New South Wales population had been fully vaccinated, and that percent is now at 73.5. Over 90 percent have gotten at least one dose. For now hairdressers, gyms, cafes, and bars may reopen. Additional restrictions will be removed when 80 percent full vaccination is reached. Right now, New South Wales just reported 496 new cases in 24 hours and eight deaths. The powers that be are cautioning that those rates will rise as Sydney reopens. The current covid surge has yet to peak in Melbourne.


 

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