The Associated Press Morning Wire new summary I found in my inbox each morning today included no coronavirus news. I'm not sure if that it a good thing or a bad thing. Are we getting desensitized to it? Do we not follow it too closely any longer because it's same old same old?
As for same old same old, not quite. The seven-day average number of covid cases peaked on September 1 at just over 160,000. That number has since fallen by 40 percent. Hospitalizations are down 30 percent. Deaths are down 13 percent since September 20. Is this part of the two-month covid cycle that has yet to be explained? A University of Minnesota epidemiologist explains, "We are still in the cave ages in terms of understanding how viruses emerge, how they spread, how they start and stop, how they do what they do." In other words, it's okay to say that we don't know what is happening and what will happen. We do know that people for the most part move indoors when the winter cold sets in; this suggests that the next few months will be critical in trying to keep the virus in check.
WHO has issued a clinical case definition of "long covid." Symptoms appear within three months of infection, last for at least two months, and can not be explained by any other diagnosis. That's pretty general, I know, but the range of long covid symptoms or conditions that I've seen is pretty broad. Making the list of symptoms more specific could quite possibly miss something or some things.
A data journalist (I've never heard of that career) and an economics student have developed something called the World Mortality Dataset that has become the basis of estimates of covid mortality by publications such as the Economist and Financial Times. Using this index, the Economist suggests that the real covid death toll is 16 million rather than the previously reported 4.8 million. This would make it much worse than we think but nowhere near as bad as 1918's flue pandemic that claimed 75 million lives. The 16 million figure would likely be higher if that dataset were not missing most African and many Asian countries including some with sizeable populations.
I've been thinking about the approval of some covid vaccine(s) for children between the ages of five and 11. How vaccine hesitant are parents going to be when it comes to their children? Will the fact that younger children are still developing in so many ways make parents more cautious? Will they worry that the vaccine might affect puberty? I know that teenagers are still developing and growing in so many ways, but figure that parents will be a bit more protective of younger children. It will be interesting to see how vaccine eligibility for such children goes.
If covid cases and hospitalizations stay stable or decline, San Francisco will relax some of its covid restrictions. In indoor settings such as offices, gyms, fitness centers, religious gatherings, and college classes, people will be able to remove their masks if everyone there has been vaccinated, with those vaccinations verified. The employer or host must provide proper ventilation and ensure that no children under the age of 12 are present. Indoor mask mandates would remain in place for more other public settings including retail businesses and common areas such as elevators, lobbies, and restrooms.
As I read through news updates, I realize that I am not at all reporting or opining on the many economic matters related to covid. Perhaps I should have taken an economics class somewhere along my educational journey. So much of what I read make some sense, but not usually complete enough that I feel comfortable addressing it.
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Parents reluctant to get their younger children vaccinated for other diseases will be reluctant to get this one too. Since it works largely on how the body approaches viruses with spikes, I'm not sure it could do any long-term damage otherwise, but I'm not a medical professional, so don't take my word for it.
As for economic impact, many people don't see how everything has been affected by shortages (production, delivery, workers) and look for a scapegoat.
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