Case and hospitalization numbers are, for the most part, headed down. The seven-day average number of new cases dropped from about 151,000 on September 14 to about 106,000 on September 29. That's a 29 percent decrease according to the CDC. Still, there are seven states that saw at least a 14 percent increase over two weeks, according to The New York Times. That list includes Maine with a 29 percent increase and North Dakota with a 25 percent increase. The big winner (loser?), though, is Alaska which saw a 75 percent (that is not a typo) increase. At least two hospitals in the state are actively rationing care, treating one patient knowing that another one will die as a result.
I think I've mentioned before that covid seems to be on a two-month cycle of surging for two months then declining for two months. This pattern has occurred during different seasons of the year and even when human behavior is not changing in obvious ways. It appears globally and has been seen within different countries. We appear to be on the decline side of the pattern, which does not mean that another surge will follow. One reason for optimism that another surge is by no means definite is that 76 percent of Americans age 12 and over have gotten at least one dose of vaccine. Another reason for optimism that made me sit back and think for a bit is that half of Americans have probably had covid and therefore have some natural immunity. Half? Really?
In terms of another surge, the precautions people take or don't take over the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays will be crucial. The CDC recommends that people get vaccinated before holiday gatherings, wear masks, and celebrate virtually if possible. That is not what a lot of people want to hear, though, starting with the vaccination suggestion. While the threat of losing jobs has persuaded a large number of people to seek vaccination, most of the vaccine hesitancy factors remain in place. Right-wing and religious opposition and skepticism have not gone away and neither have concerns over the vaccines' safety. So let's try this argument in favor of vaccinations. Of the 700,000 Americans who have died of covid, almost 200,000 would likely have been saved had those people been vaccinated.
What are some of the talking heads saying? The director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Politics at the University of Minnesota offers, "Will the next surges be as big as this current one? It's not likely, but it's possible. When you have 70 million people left who have not been vaccinated, many of whom have not yet been infected, that's a lot of human wood for this coronavirus human forest fire to burn...people are feeling like this is the end, [but] we're vaccinating very few people for the first time. There will be more to come." An epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University feels that, as a country, we need to define what the "off ramps" are in terms of covid. If we don't do that, we won't know when the virus really has, at least for the most part, exited.
Kids here in the US are back in schools while teachers are fleeing in record numbers. If they're not quitting, they're retiring early. Teacher shortages were a problem even before the pandemic. Fort Worth, Texas had 314 vacancies at the beginning of this school year; it had 71 vacancies at the beginning of the 2019-20 school year. Teacher vacancies in Florida this year increased by over 67 percent compared to August 2020. Nationally, schools have seen over 200,000 reported cases of covid in schoolchildren in the last five weeks, mostly in areas that have no school mask mandate. I can see why teachers want to leave.
On the quickie front, Johnson & Johnson is seeking FDA authorization for booster shots of its vaccine. One of the National Basketball Association players facing not being able to play in home games has now been vaccinated. One incentive was that he would have lost the salary he's paid for that number of games. Finally, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation poll, 37 percent overall and 55 percent of Republicans believe immigrants and tourists are the major source of covid spread. I've heard the immigrant argument before. But tourists? We haven't been allowing tourists from Canada, Mexico, Europe, China, and probably s bunch of other nations, so how can they be the ones bringing covid with them?
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