The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 95 (595)

Happy Halloween! There are finally enough kids in our subdivision that they can go trick-or-treating here. A few families that don't want to respond to door-knocking are leaving candy in bowls or baskets at a designated spot. Since there's always a parent with the kids here, candy theft does not usually take place. Actually, I'd love it if someone took the whole bowl here; leftover candy is too tempting to have around the house. 

It seems that one in six New York City workers remains unvaccinated. This means that they will be put on unpaid leave tomorrow. This could result or already has resulted in some closed fire stations, fewer police and ambulances, and mounting trash. Departments have drafted ways to handle this; sanitation, for example, is having vaccinated workers working longer shifts to cover the loss in people-power. The fire and sanitation departments each have 23 percent of their workers unvaccinated; 16 percent of police are still unvaccinated. 

I think I mentioned a short while ago a statement in support of vaccination that included "Don't be an ass." That was from Fox News host Neil Cavuto, who has multiple sclerosis, had open-heart surgery, beat state 4 cancer, and then got covid. Probably not in response to Cavuto but to the national vaccine mandate, Fox News now requires all workers to be vaccinated or be tested daily. Caputo has been getting death threats, some not so subtle. One voicemail message: "I admire your remarkable strength through so much adversity, but let me give you some advice. Shut up and enjoy the fact you're not dead. For now." And another: "It's clear you've lost some weight with all this stuff. Good for you. But I'm not happy with less of you. I want 'none' of you. I want you gone. Dead. Caput. Fini. Get it? Now, take your two-bit advice, deep-six it and you."

I think this division that the coronavirus has brought is just as bad as the covid it also causes. I can't say I like the idea of vaccine mandates, but I do think we need them. If the front-line workers in New York Coty don't want to get vaccinated, don't make them but also don't let them stay on the front line, where the odds they might infect someone else are higher. And death threats should hold no part in it all. A comeback to "Don't be an ass" of "Don't be a sheep" or "Don't be a chicken" gets a message of disagreement across without threats.

US intelligence agencies are now saying that the coronavirus was not designed as a bioweapon, and most say it was not genetically engineered. How it initially started--animal-to-human transmission or lab accident--may never be known unless China is more forthright in providing information. 

I'll be putting on a clown wig and a mask with a clown nose attached for giving out candy. Anyone else in blogland dressing up to offer goodies?

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 94 (594)

Has the coronavirus sunk to new lows? Looking at The Guardian online this morning, the "Coronavirus" news was under the "Sports" news. There are days I do not look at The Guardian, but I've never seen the coronavirus section so low in the scroll. Maybe same old same old isn't interesting enough. 

The CDC will meet on Tuesday to discuss the Pfizer vaccine for children ages five through 11. The vials already being shipped have orange caps so they will be easy to distinguish from the adult strength vials. Both Pfizer and Moderna are testing vaccines for babies and preschoolers. That one is a bit harder for me than the five to 11 one. I'd need to see some statistics on how many babies and preschoolers catch covid and how bad those cases are. Preschoolers do group together in, where else, preschool, and both babies and preschoolers group together in day care settings. Still, as a parent, I'd have to give this one some serious thought.

A study looking at covid transmission within households found that a fully vaccinated contact has a 25 percent chance of catching covid from an infected household member. An unvaccinated contact has a 38 percent chance. But whether someone is fully vaccinated or unvaccinated makes little or no difference in how infectious they are to other people in the household. Early in the pandemic, there were reports and features on someone with covid living in the basement or attic and having no contact at all with the other members of the household. I don't see those any longer. I don't know if that's because people don't do that any longer or because it's old news and not worth reporting. Finally, the study suggested that vaccine-induced protection waned by about three months after someone's second shot, suggesting that boosters are a very good idea. 

The island nation of Tonga has reported its first case of covid, a traveler arriving from New Zealand. The traveler was fully vaccinated and tested negative for covid before leaving New Zealand. Tonga's isolation has served it well since its health system may not be able to handle an outbreak. Tonga has about 106,000 people, 31 percent of whom are fully vaccinated and 48 percent of whom have gotten at least one dose. 

Parosmia is a distorted sense of smell seen after covid and some other diseases. It can linger for as long as three years, at least after non-covid diseases. What smells are distorted varies from person to person. The scent something in distorted into rarely sounds pleasant. For some people, it might be the scent of coffee or chocolate that is distorted; for one particularly unlucky person, it was fresh air. I know someone who lost his sense of smell for certain things after a head injury. He can no longer smell chocolate, though its smell has not been replaced by any other odor. He also notes that it helped him loose a bit of weight.

Vaccination rates in New York City rose sharply as last night's midnight vaccination deadline loomed. The vaccination rate of sanitation workers rose from 67 percent to 76 percent; the rate for police rose from under 75 percent to 84 percent. Yesterday morning, 69 percent of the fire department  had been vaccinated; by evening that had risen to 77 percent. The department still expects about 20 percent of fire stations to have to close; five in Manhattan and the Bronx already have. And despite the increase for sanitation workers, some Brooklyn and Staten Island residents are reporting delays in trash pickup.

I wonder how many people are dressing as a spike protein for Halloween. Or perhaps that's dated this year after being overdone last year.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 93 (593)

Not too much new news on the coronavirus front, or am I just getting jaded? Russia and Eastern Europe are not in good places, and China has its own troubles. I'll get to those. First, though, the FDA officially approved the Pfizer vaccine for use in children ages five through 11. Kids will get one-third of the adult dose for two injections three weeks apart. It was not included in the report I read, but I assume the same two weeks will be needed for the vaccine to have its full effect. If children are vaccinated first thing, the vaccine will have had its full effect before the Christmas holidays; that will likely weaken any post-holiday winter surge. The CDC must now approve this; if it does, vaccinations could begin as soon as Wednesday. Pfizer will be shipping millions of doses this weekend to help get things started. As of this week, 8,300 children ages five through 11 have been hospitalized, and 170 have died. The national totals are 3.2 million hospitalizations and 740,00 deaths.

On Monday, England will stop requiring travelers to quarantine in government-designated hotels. It will also remove the last seven countries from its "red list," though every three weeks it will review whether countries should be added to this list. The seven countries being removed are Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Haiti, Panama, Peru, and Venezuela.

Over half of the new cases between October 18 and 23 were reported in Europe. The low vaccination rates in Eastern Europe are a large factor. The global number of cases is increasing for the first time in two months driven by the rise in Europe offsetting declines in other regions. Europe is currently seeing 29 cases per 100,000 people; the US is seeing 22. Within Europe, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are averaging over 100 new cases per 100,000 people. Cases in Germany have doubled since October 1. Britain is averaging 66 new cases per 100,000 people and has been seeing a persistently high positivity rate.

China is now the only country practicing the "zero covid" policy of trying to stamp out outbreaks as they occur. Aiding this policy have been exports keeping the economy going and the Communist government's tight grip on lockdowns and testing. Now, though, the economy is slowing and it's unclear just how long China can maintain its zero covid policy. The Winter Olympics are less than 100 days away. The Olympic bubble planned will be an extremely tight one. Leaving the bubble could result in immediate expulsion from the Games and the country. If you thought the bubble in Tokyo was impermeable, Beijing's will likely be stronger. 

 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 92 (592)

There is concern in India about a resurgence of covid given that 103.4 million people have failed to get a second dose of vaccine. Such "vaccine truancy" will greatly impact India's goal of vaccinating all adults by December 31. Explains a health worker, "We have seen this complacency with Tuberculosis patients. They start taking the drugs and after a few weeks, they feel better so they stop even though they have to take them for six months. It's a similar mentality with the vaccine. I'm sure they feel one dose is enough because no one is falling ill." Nationally, 77 percent of India's 944 million adults have gotten at least one dose of vaccine; 34 percent have gotten both.

In the continuing saga of Russia's outbreak, they continue to set the sort of records they shouldn't want to set. In 24 hours, they recorded 40,096 new cases and 1,159 deaths. Japan is offering boosters to anyone who has already received two doses. The UK's chief scientific advisor warns of "a pretty difficult winter" due to the high case numbers. The Ukranian Health Ministry set the goal of vaccinating as many people as possible in Morshyn, a town with a population of 6,000. Over a period of two months, they managed to vaccinate fully 72 percent of the residents. Right now, as covid surges elsewhere in Ukraine, no one is hospitalized in Morshyn, and 15 of the 19 current cases were in people who were not vaccinated. 

Looking at covid cases by state here in the US, only five states are showing any increases at all, and then only small ones: Maine, California, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. Three states are showing declines greater than 15 percent: New Hampshire, Kentucky, and Alaska. Per capita, Alaska tops the list followed by Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, and Idaho. Nationally, we're averaging 70,000 new cases daily, a 20 percent drop over the past two weeks. Deaths fell 15 percent in the same period. Are we there yet, Mom? No, and stop asking, I'm trying to drive here. 

A second In-N-Out restaurant has been closed in California for failing to verify the vaccination status or negative covid test result for those wishing to dine inside. Several other In-N-Outs have been issued warnings and fines. A statement from corporate headquarters justifies their practice as "we refuse to become the vaccination police for the government. It is unreasonable, invasive, and unsafe to force our restaurant associates to segregate customers into those who may be served and those who may not." The chain is owned by conservative Christians, and several of its executives donated to the Republican party and XPot's campaign.

In a Kaiser Family Foundation survey, only 27 percent of parents say they will get their child(ren) vaccinated as soon as vaccines are available. In other words, lots of kids will remain unvaccinated. In the survey, 43 percent of Americans said that they have more or less returned to normal pre-pandemic practices. I've been wondering just what that means. Going out to eat or drink indoors? Going to theaters? Shaking hands and/or hugging? Not wearing a mask unless masks are a legal requirement and then wearing them only under protest? Some of these seem more dangerous than others. Unfortunately, the danger is not limited to the person performing the behavior; other people will likely share at least a little of it. 

The The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 91 (591)

The blueberry pie is cooling while the apple pie bakes. I decided to go for a two-fer. The blueberries and three of the apples (honeycrisps) came from Whole Foods; three apples (ambrosia) came from My Brother's visit with two of his sisters-in-law yesterday. My Brother will take pieces of both to our mom tomorrow. This morning, our mom asked one of the staff to take some photos of the three of us. In all honesty, I can't remember the last time we took a group photo. In the tenor of the times, we did the first photo masked.

We also did some unmasked.

Having these taken was the highlight of the day and made me happy.

On the covid front, Russia and Eastern Europe continue to struggle to handle surges. Russia set another record for deaths in one day, 1,123, making the official-but-likely-undercounted death toll 233,898. There were 36,582 new cases. Poland had 8,361 new cases in one 24-hour period compared to the previous day's 6,265. Hungary just recorded 3,125 cases compared to 1,668 one week ago. The Czech Republic's cases almost doubled in one week, hitting 6,274. Finally, Bulgaria recorded 6,813 new cases in 24 hours. Such numbers are why the WHO's emergency committee says that the pandemic is "far from finished." Or as I like to put it, no one is safe until everyone is safe. 

Elsewhere internationally, New Zealanders stranded in Australia are going to new lengths in order to get home. Right now, the country is controlling the number of people who can enter the country, and anyone coming in must quarantine for 14 days. The new means of going home is sailing for 10 days across the Tasman Sea, a "notoriously perilous" body of water. The trip takes 10 days, which can be counted as part of the 14-day quarantine. They must also test negative for covid. The Facebook group Trans-Tasman Transits has been formed to help coordinate the process. 

Covid was the eighth leading cause of death for children ages five through 11 last year. Children are "at least as likely" to be infected as adults, but the infection in children is more likely to go unnoticed. How the childhood vaccination program will be is anyone's guess. Among other age ranges, the vaccine booster rate now exceeds the rate for first shots. The CDC has also suggested that some immunocompromised people may benefit from a fourth shot six months after their third. There are not guidelines for this yet, so people should consult their doctors. 

Some people with lasting covid symptoms are filing for disability, something complicated by the fact that the definition of "long covid" is far from clear. An example is a 31-year-old woman who had covid in April 2020. Since then, she sleeps 15 hours a day, has to stop in grocery aisles to catch her breath, and lapses in and out of consciousness at times. She has had all sorts of medical tests, with the results coming back normal every time. Another complication is that some people claiming to have long covid cannot produce results showing that they tested positive for covid at some time in the past. There is still so much about the coronavirus we do not know and, honestly, may never know. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 90 (590)

I'm posting later than usual. I did not feel like rushing this morning trying to research and write anything before I left at noonish for an afternoon of early voting. Four hours and almost 400 voters. Thank the gods for take-out because I was in no mood to come home and try to make something. Ribs and sides from a Latin restaurant were better than anything I could have come up with.

It appears that while I was working voting the FDA approved Pfizer shots for children ages five through 11. There was an email newsletter from the local health district this morning saying that they would start vaccinating children in a week or two. They were asking parents to complete a survey saying at what setting they would prefer to get their child vaccinated--school, doctor's office, clinic, etc.

More information is emerging about the Delta variant. While it was definitely more contagious than the previous forms, it was evidently not as more severe as had originally been feared. In late 2020 and early 2021, about 1.2 percent of positive cases resulted in death. The same percent during the Delta wave was 1.2. Delta may be a bit more severe, though, because hospitalizations and death rates have held steady even as vaccination rates have risen.

The average daily covid case number in the US is now 57 percent lower than the peak on September 1, with cases declining in every region. A CDC model predicts an additional 20 percent drop over the next three weeks. Covid is still the leading cause of death for older age groups. The main reason is that many older people are not vaccinated. According to the CDC, in late August, 24 of every 10,000 unvaccinated Americans ages 65 and older were hospitalized with covid symptoms. For those in the same age group who had been vaccinated, only 1.5 of every 10,000 people were hospitalized. 

The US remains one of the least vaccinated developed countries worldwide. The US also remains polarized on the vaccination issue. The percentage of adults without college degrees who are vaccinated is 67; 82 percent of college graduates are vaccinated. The vaccination rate for self-identified Republicans is 58 percent compared with 90 percent for self-identified Democrats. The New York Times attributes much of the polarization to a "triumph of misinformation." 

Right now, Europe is the only region in the world reporting increases in covid cases. One wonders what the coming winter will be like. Vaccination rates vary greatly across Europe. In some eastern areas, only 24 percent of people have been vaccinated. The vaccination rate among EU nations is 74.6 percent, while Belgium has an 85 percent rate. The CDC just moved Ukraine to its level-four-don't-go-there category. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 89 (589)

I thought I'd start today with a question, probably a rhetorical one, but certainly one I wonder about. At what point will "fully vaccinated" switch from being two doses of Moderna/Pfizer or one dose of Johnson & Johnson to being the previously stated doses plus a booster? It's similar to wondering when a percent of people vaccinated is given what is the denominator in that percent? Total population? Eligible population? Residents only? I prefer when that is specified which is not at all always.

The FDA is discussing whether vaccines are suitable for children between the ages of five and 11. According to Dr. Fauci if a vaccine for that age range is approved this week, they could start going into arms the first or second week of November which to my mind is as early as next week. The Pfizer vaccine is supposed to be 90.7 percent effective against symptomatic disease in children of that age range. If my kids were still that young, I'd have them in line as soon as I could get them there. That said, I know that there are many parents who plan to wait or who plan to sit this one out totally.

Meanwhile, China is getting ready to vaccinate children as young as three, and those vaccinations will be mandatory. Right now, 76 percent of the Chinese population is fully vaccinated, which means 1.07 billion people out of a total 1.4 billion people. China is still attempting to eliminate any cases that arise. The northwestern province of Gansu has been closed due to covid's appearance there. All the tourist sites have been closed, not a good thing when the province depends heavily on the income generated by tourism. Marathons scheduled for Beijing and Wuhan have been postponed. Particularly with the Olympics looming, China wants as little covid as possible come February.

About four percent of public school employees in New York City did not comply with the vaccine mandate, and at least 150 state police officers have left. If those police officers don't mind moving, Florida is offering $5,000 sign-on bonuses to police officers who leave other cities rather than get vaccinated. Most vaccine holdouts say that their opposition to the vaccines is rooted in fear or a deeply held personal conviction. Right now, 21 percent of eligible adults have not gotten any vaccine. If that percent holds, we may be kissing herd immunity of a desired level good-bye. 

Covid cases and deaths in the US have been declining since September. In early September, the average number of new cases was in the neighborhood of 160,000. On October 20, the average was down to 76,000, a 54 percent decrease. The seven-day average number of deaths also decreased, by 26 percent. An infectious diseases expert at Vanderbilt University says that with continued vaccination the US could move from pandemic to endemic in which the virus remains in the community much as influenza does. If this were to happen, people at higher risk due to age or underlying condition(s) may find themselves conducting personal risk assessments. For a sporting event, this might be viewing it in person in a crowd or on TV at home. Once the decision to attend has been made, there is the decision about wearing a mask. Says the expert, "People are exhausted by this. The complacency in society is totally understandable, and there are only so many times you can tell people: 'The virus doesn't care.'"

I do not know if this will put his job in jeopardy, but Fox News host Neil Cavuto, who is immunocompromised, is on record as saying, "My God, stop the politics. Life is too short to be an ass. Life is way too short to be ignorant of the promise of something that is helping people worldwide. Stop the deaths, stop the suffering, please get vaccinated, please."

Always be yourself, unless you can be a Viking. Then always be a Viking. Just don't be an ass.  

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 88 (588)

Taking a day off doesn't change some things. Russia is still setting covid records with 37,678 new cases in one day along with 1,075 deaths. The official death toll is now 229,528 though the government statistical agency Rosstat says the death toll may actually be over 400,000. Moscow will shut non-essential services between October 28 and November 7; there will be a nationwide paid week off starting on October 30. The Russian-made vaccine Sputnik V has not yet been approved by either the EU or WHO; only 36 percent of Russians are now fully vaccinated. 

Things are grim in Romania, with covid killing one person every five minutes this month. (The Professor asked when all the Romanians will have died at this rate.) The death rate is now higher than that in the US or UK during their worst surges. Emergency beds and morgues are both running at full capacity. Scientists in Cape Town, South Africa are attempting to reverse-engineer the Moderna vaccine, a move backed by WHO. A biotechnologist involved in the effort explains, "We are doing this for Africa at this moment, and that drives us. We can no longer rely on these big superpowers to come in and save us." Only 0.7 percent of vaccines have gone to low-income countries; nearly half have gone to wealthy countries. Starting Friday, when 80 percent of people in Australia's state of Victoria are expected to be fully vaccinated, people will be free to travel throughout the state and masks will no longer be required outdoors.  

A member of the UK's Joint Committee of Vaccination and Immunisation is warning against complacency as hospitalizations and deaths rise in the UK. The biggest risk is among unvaccinated people including young adults. Vaccinations won't be enough to keep the spread of covid under control. What I called Delta-Squared and some others call Delta-Plus or AY.4.2 has been designated a "variant under investigation" in the UK as cases involving it rise. 

And now for something completely different not to mention light-hearted. The Salt Lake health department looked at covid vaccination rates depending on Zodiac sign. Leo led the list with 70 percent of Leos vaccinated. Scorpio held up the bottom with 46 percent of Scorpios vaccinated. However, those percentages depend on two numbers, the number of people of each Zodiac sign who are vaccinated and the number of people in each sign in the county overall. A table of how common each Zodiac sign is in America is a near-exact inverse of the Salt Lake vaccination one. A Salt Lake health department spokesperson reported, "Obviously, it's not super scientific because we are talking astrology. We did the math really quickly ... We thought, we can use this to continue the conversation around vaccination, when there's so much message fatigue on the topic. People are tired of hearing about it. So [we said] let's put a new spin on it. ... I want to thank the Leos and congratulate them for being at the top; they always knew they belonged to be there. They deserve to be there, and they're proving it. But I also don't want the Leos to rest on their laurels: 70% is not 100%. To the Scorpios, I really want to tell them that their key to being in control and continuing their dominance of sort of the dark side of the Zodiac is in being able to be out and influential, and vaccination is the key to that influence." 

Finally, most experts say that the US has gone through five waves of covid so far. There is cautious optimism about this winter. There might be a small bump, though there could be a larger one if people radically change their behavior or a new variant surfaces. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 87 (587)

Taking a break day. This morning I'll be taking My Brother to visit our mom, followed by an afternoon working early voting, followed by an evening visit from Son #2 and DiL=. Busy day. Talk to you tomorrow.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 86 (586)

Another day on which it has not been easy to find a wealth of coronavirus news, though there is some on the vaccine, mandate, and vaccine mandate fronts. Police unions nationwide continue to fight vaccine mandates despite the fact that in the period January 2020 to October 2021, covid killed more police officers, 483, than did gunfights, 101. A labor professor notes that the law favors the employer but predicts that lawsuits of police union versus city will likely end up in the Supreme Court. 

The local university has announced that in accordance with POTUS's order last month all employees must be vaccinated by December 8. The Professor has not reported seeing or hearing of any vaccine-hesitancy among his faculty colleagues, but he's sure there is some out there. As for The Professor, he made an appointment for this morning in order to get the Moderna booster approved yesterday by the CDC. When he got to the health department office, a staff member told him that they knew it had been approved, but until they got the all-holy make-it-so memo from higher up they could not administer it. So he has an appointment for same-time same-place tomorrow morning. Son #1 got his booster yesterday. I'll ask Son #2 and DiL= about their boosters tomorrow when they come for dinner with my brother who will be arriving later today.

Moscow is reacting to Russia's latest covid surge. The city is going under lockdown for at least 10 days. In my personal favorite mitigation measure, the mayor has ordered unvaccinated citizens over the age of 60 to stay home for four months. Huh? You! There! You're staying at home for four months; that's months, not weeks. I wonder how many of those over-60s don't have family to help them shop, get medicines, and complete other essential tasks. 

WHO estimates that between 80,000 and 180,000 healthcare workers may have been killed by covid between January 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021. I wonder it they are including suicides in that count. I wonder because in the early days of the pandemic, an New York City physician who came from here committed suicide. Her family said that she'd been overwhelmed by the pandemic to the point of just plain giving up.

I can't end this post on suicide, but I can end it with some comments on the end of lockdown in Melbourne, Australia. That end was described by one resident as, "The plan is to drink all day." Another resident described it as "Today I'm just going to visit people, catch up, drink, eat, be merry, have fun...Everyone's just happy. Everyone's positive, everyone's got a smile on their face."

May you have a smile on your face this weekend.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 85 (585)

I'm working the late shift of early voting today meaning I won't be home until 7:30ish. And since we're going to be short-handed, I may spend six straight hours staring at a monitor as I check voters in. That means I'll be more ready to go to bed when I get home than I'll be to write something.

As we've noted before, New York City now mandates workers' vaccination with no option for regular testing. At least 46,000 city workers, including police officers and firefighters, have yet to be vaccinated. Those who get their first dose at city-run vaccination centers between now and October 29 will get an extra $500 in their paychecks. This makes me wonder if any of those 46,000 were holding out for the proper incentive, which $500 might just be. It's almost a reward for delaying. 

We're moving closer every day to vaccinating children between the ages of five and 11. The plan is to vaccinate children in smaller settings than the mass clinics used by adults. Smaller settings include such places as pediatricians' offices or grocery/drug stores. The number of parents saying that they have concerns about vaccinating such young children has risen over the last few months. In a recent poll, 25 percent said that they were "extremely unlikely" to get their children vaccinated, and another nine percent were "somewhat unlikely." Major concerns are how new the vaccines are, whether they have been tested enough in young children, whether they actually work, and whether there are immediate side effects or long-term health issues as children grow. 

Would I take my under-11 kids to be vaccinated? I would, probably so quickly that I would lose out on any future incentive offered to parents who wait. How does $500 per child sound?

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 84 (584)

I am or should be embarrassed to report that yesterday's Chromebook (still unnamed) mouse problems were because the mouse had been set to be used by a southpaw. The only real times I have used my left hand instead of my right have been when my right arm or hand has been out of action. Think right rotator cuff repair, or right trigger finger repair. My fingers and toes are crossed that I don't have to add right thumb repair to that list. 

On the Eastern European front, things are not improving in Russia. They set a new record with 1,028 new cases in 24 hours. The overall death toll is now at 226,353. The Russian cabinet has suggested a non-working week, and Moscow city is urging businesses to let at least a third of their workers work remotely. A steep rise continues in Poland with over 5,000 new daily cases for the first time since May. Most were in an eastern province with one of the lowest vaccination rates in the country. New cases in the Czech Republic went above 3,000 for the first time since April. Ukraine has the lowest vaccination rate in Europe; only 15 percent of the population is fully vaccinated. 

There is good news and bad news on the variant front. The good news is that it so far is not classified as a variant of concern. The bad news is that the Delta variant has mutated. The Professor has proposed calling this new variant Delta-Squared, but I don't expect the global health powers will even learn of his idea let alone implement it. I'm going to call it that here, though, so there is a clear distinction between the original Delta variant and its own variant. Delta-Squared is estimated to have caused six percent of cases in Britain in the week of September 27. It could be slightly more transmissible than Delta, but that's not at all clear yet. Delta-Squared remains rare outside of Britain but has been seen in small numbers in Denmark and the US. There has also been a case in Israel, an 11-year-old boy trying to enter the country at Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv.

The UK has had the highest rate of daily covid cases and deaths per million people in Western Europe. There were 223 deaths on Tuesday, the highest daily figure since March. Governmental talking heads and health experts have been debating what action or actions should be taken in response. Across the globe, it is likely that vaccinations will become compulsory for most Western Australia workers by the end of this year. 

Some US schools are trying a test-to-stay approach in which students who may have been exposed to covid may continue to attend school as long as they test negative daily. The CDC calls it a "promising practice" and is working on evaluating the strategy's effectiveness. 

The American Academy of Pediatrics, the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, and the Children's Hospital Association have declared a national emergency in child and adolescent mental health due to prolonged isolation, uncertainty, and grief. During the pandemic, emergency room visits for young people with mental health emergencies rose by 24 percent for ages five through 11 and by 31 percent for ages 12 through 17. The emergency room visits identified as potentially the result of a suicide attempt were up over 50 percent in early 2021 compared to the same time in 2019 among young women ages 11 through 17. The president of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry says, "We are caring for young people with soaring rates of depression, anxiety, trauma, loneliness, and suicidality that will have lasting impacts on them, their families, their communities, and all our futures. We cannot sit idly by."

In Chicago, 21 police officers have been placed on leave without pay for failing to follow the city's vaccine mandate. The Washington State Patrol reports that 127 officers, some six percent of the total workforce, have left, 74 commissioned officers and 53 civilian workers. At least 150 members of the State Police Association of Massachusetts have resigned or intend to. More than a little related to law enforcement, the Homeland Security Secretary has tested positive for covid. He was fully vaccinated and so far has only mild congestion. He was "near" POTUS at an outdoor event Saturday. The depressed pessimist in my thinks that XPot (the eX-Potus) got through his case of covid but what if POTUS were to get covid and not get through. Can you imagine the mileage XPot would try to get out of such a situation? I don't want to.

As tidbits, Supreme Court Justice Stephen Bryer rejected a request from health care workers in Maine who wanted the court to block the state's vaccine mandate based on their religious objections. And an In-N-Out (it's a burger joint) in San Francisco was temporarily shut down on October 14 because they were not checking patrons for proof of vaccination. The In-N-Out has since reopened but only for takeout. In-N-Out's corporate headquarters has said that they should not be acting as vaccine police for the city. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 83 (583)

The new as-yet-unnamed Chromebook laptop is pretty sweet so far. There are a few things I still need to figure out, but they are things with no pressure. I can read the screen easily and no longer must contend with an itty-bitty keyboard and a bouncing cursor. Life is good so far.

Early voting was busy this afternoon. People are taking this election very seriously, which is good. I do wonder, though, whether there will be noticeably fewer people voting on election day because so many voted early. 

There is a new covid vaccine, the French-made Valneva, showing promise. It uses inactivated Sars-CoV-2 virus and can be stored in a refrigerator. It gives rise to T-cells able to respond not only to the coronavirus spike protein but also to two other key proteins. 

Here's a quick international rundown. Schools and hospitality venues in Latvia are being closed, and a curfew has been put in place. Russia saw a new record on daily cases--34,325--along with 998 deaths. St. Petersburg has started taking anti-virus measures, while Moscow has not. The UK had close to 50,000 cases in one day, the highest since July 17 and a 16 percent rise over the previous week. Tuesday in New Zealand saw the most new cases of the pandemic, 94, most of them in Auckland. A "Vaxathon" event on Saturday saw 130,000 people vaccinated, over two percent of the population. New Zealand has a goal of fully vaccinating 90 percent of residents. Currently 67 percent are fully vaccinated while 85 percent have gotten at least one shot. Australia has passed the US in terms of the percent of the population having gotten at least one dose of vaccine, 72 percent compared with 66 percent. Both countries have fully vaccinated about 57 percent of their population; Israel has fully vaccinated 63 percent of its population. Finally, where are the highest vaccination rates? Try tiny Pacific island nations such as Palau, the Cook Islands, Niue, and Nauru.

According to the CDC, the US has exported more vaccine doses than it has administered, with 494,655,075 doses exported and 408,797,942 doses administered; 10.7 million people have gotten booster shots. In Chicago, 4,500 police are at risk of being put on leave without pay. A private school in Miami previously asked teachers not to get vaccinated and told them not to return if they did. The school is now asking parents who get their children vaccinated to keep them home for 30 days after each vaccination, boosters included. 

In one of my personal favorite coronavirus incidents, Washington State University has fired its head football coach and four of his assistants for not following a state mandate that all state employees get vaccinated. The Washington mandate is one of the country's strictest; there is no option to substitute testing for vaccination. And get this: the head football coach was the state's highest-paid employee, not the university's, but the state's. I personally find that distasteful.

The FDA is planning to allow Americans to get different vaccines as boosters than they originally got. It seems that a Johnson & Johnson booster following an initial dose of Johnson & Johnson results in a four-fold increase in antibody levels. A Moderna booster results in a 76-fold increase. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 82 (582)

From a dearth of coronavirus news yesterday to more than I can reasonably read today. Be careful what you wish for, I guess. Wishing for the new laptop hasn't brought mail delivery yet, so I'll once again tackle the mini-keyboard and jumping cursor.

Seattle, Washington is preparing to fire hundreds of police officers who refused to get vaccinated. This means that detectives may be putting their case loads on hold to answer 911 calls. Interestingly, as far as police not wanting to be vaccinated goes, covid was/is the largest cause of death for law enforcement officers in both 2020 and 2021. A former police chief and now an adjunct professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice explains that police "are a little more skeptical" and "are not used to being told what to do." This last point intrigues me. Is there not a chain of command within the department? Milwaukee has reached an agreement that unvaccinated police wear masks on duty except when eating and drinking at a safe distance from others. The police union calls this a "penalty." The issue of law enforcement vaccination is not limited to the US. In Victoria, Australia, 43 police staff have been "stood down" and are using accrued leave. They face losing their jobs if they do not get vaccinated.

On Saturday, Russia had over 1,000 deaths for the first time since the start of the pandemic, a situation described as "near critical." Vaccinations are at a standstill, with 55 percent of Russians saying that they are not afraid of getting covid. In one poll, two-thirds of respondents reported believing that the coronavirus was a human-generated bioweapon.

Random intriguing factoid: Superman's motto "Truth, Justice and the American Way" is out; the motto "Truth, Justice and a Better Tomorrow" is in. Not quite as catchy but definitely more global.

Tokyo's mid-August covid peak was nearly 6,000 new cases daily. That wasn't that long ago, but the count of new cases daily is now routinely below 100, the lowest it has been in the last 11 months. Japan never did have lockdowns though they did declare states of emergency; it's not clear how well these were enforced. One factor helping keep cases down is that wearing masks is something the Japanese are used to doing. There was also bad weather in late August that kept people at home.

The current US average is around 85,000 new cases per day, down by over 8,000 from last week. Deaths are also down. Will we avoid a seasonal spike as cold weather sets in? That's not clear, but low vaccination rates will not help. Concern has also been expressed that boosters are going to widen the gap between vaccinated Americans and vaccine-hesitant Americans. Many counties in the northernmost reaches of the US are already seeing cases rise as temperatures drop. The top five states in terms of new daily cases per capita are Alaska, with 125 cases per 100,000 residents followed by Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, and Idaho, all with at least 67 cases per 100,000 residents. The states with the fastest rising caseloads are Vermont, Colorado, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Minnesota. Minnesota has seen a 12 percent climb in two weeks.

Besides its human casualties, covid is also making the public health system a casualty, the aftereffects  of which could last for years. The New York Times reviewed hundreds of health departments in all 50 states. The verdict? Local public health is less equipped to confront a new pandemic than it was at the start of 2020. The loss of personnel has been significant. Many quit or retired because of burnout, abuse, or having been threatened. Over 500 top health officials have left their jobs in the past 19 months. Legislatures have approved over 100 new laws that limit state and local health powers. Hundreds more laws are under consideration. Governors, lawmakers, and county officials are bring given more power to undo health decisions. Large segments of the public have turned against agencies. Finally, billions of dollars have been geared toward stemming the current emergency rather than building toward the next emergency.

My fingers are crossed that I will not be fighting a midget laptop tomorrow. The new one has arrived; I shall now attempt to get it set up.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 81 (581)

Slow weekend for coronavirus news, at least for news that spoke to me. I wish I thought that was because things are so improved, but that doesn't appear to be the case. Maybe next week ... yeah, right.

The UK on Sunday reported the highest jump in new cases since July with 45,140. The past seven days have seen a total of 300,081 new cases, a 15.1 percent increase over the previous week. This was the fifth consecutive day with over 40,000 new cases. There were 57 deaths of people within 28 days of  positive covid test. The seven-day total was 852, an 8.5 percent increase. The UK is not the only place seeing numbers rise. Russia just reported its largest daily number of cases, more than 70 percent higher than a month ago. There were 34,303 new cases on Sunday compared to 20,174 on September 19. Only 29 percent of the Russian population is fully vaccinated. While some regions have some restrictions in place, life goes on as normal in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and a lot of other cities. 

The AFP (Agence France-Presse) news agency reports an overall death toll of at least 4,891,684 covid deaths since December 2019 and at least 240,314,450 cases. If those numbers sound huge, the WHO claims the overall death toll could be two to three times higher based on excess mortality. The worst-affected country? What else, the US of A with at least 724,153 deaths and at least 44,916,462 cases. The next four countries in descending order are Brazil, India, Mexico, and Russia. There is some disagreement over Russia's case and death numbers that could place it above Mexico, but what's one place when talking about numbers as large as these?

I'm hoping for more news tomorrow to welcome the new addition to the computing family.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 80 (580)

Australia is on a roll with vaccinations. A few months ago, it had the lowest fully vaccinated population in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. By the end of last week, it had risen eight places. Canberra, Australia's capital, is on the way to being the most vaccinated city in the world. Ninety-eight percent of people over the age of 12 have gotten at least one dose of vaccine; 75.9 percent are fully vaccinated. Nationally, 83.2 percent of Australians over the age of 16 have gotten at least one dose of vaccine while 64.4 percent are fully vaccinated. While some states are beginning to reopen, Western Australia and Queensland remain essentially closed. For comparison, the percents of the population fully vaccinated for the top 10 countries in the OECD are

86.38 -- Portugal (as of Oct. 11)  

80.92 -- Iceland (as of Oct 14)

79.21 -- Spain (as of Oct 14)

75.59 -- Denmark (as of Oct 14)

74.66 -- Chile (as of Oct 14)

74.66 -- Ireland (as of Oct 13)

72.98 -- Belgium (as of Oct 14)

72.63 -- Canada (as of Oct 15)

69.79 -- Italy (as of Oct 15)

67.79 -- Norway (as of Oct 14)

The next three weeks here in the US will see discussion of vaccinating children ages five to 11, and how those vaccination programs should be set up. It is likely that special doses will be prepared and packaged and will be the only ones used for this age group. Pfizer has proposed a two-dose series of vaccine that is one-third the strength of that given to children ages 12 and up. One-third of parents of children ages five to 11 say that they would get their children vaccinated "right away."

November 8 is the magic date for travelers who want to enter the US. This will include Canadians who received doses of different vaccines. Mixing types of vaccines is still under study in the US.

Finally, might we be nearing the end of the pandemic? Experts say that there could be a small increase in cases later in the fall or winter. People will spend more time indoors and will be traveling for holidays. It is unlikely that the coronavirus will be eradicated in the next several years and perhaps not in the next several decades. While coronaviruses do not change as much from year to year as influenzq does, mutations or variants are the big unknown.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 79 (579)

Back to the teeny-weeny keyboard. The new laptop, a Chromebook I will use for any and most if not all web things, arrives on Monday. In the meantime, I'll try not to swear loudly enough for you to hear me.

I got a cortisone injection in my arthritic right thumb this morning. I got there early, so there was time for a bit of a chat with my hand doc. (Doesn't everyone have a hand dog they've seen countless times over the last almost-20 years?) She told me of the troubles they had had with fully vaccinated staff members--nurses, therapists, etc.--being out with breakthrough infections. She got Moderna and said she hoped to be first in line whenever boosters are finally available. I again find it sad that the US only counts breakthrough infections as happening at all unless they result in hospitalization or death. I guess having to isolate oneself and miss work or other obligations isn't worth noting in terms of its impact on the world.

Russia promised to export roughly one billion doses of its Sputnik V vaccine but so far has only distributed about 4.8 percent. According to a Virginia Commonwealth University professor specializing in global heath, Russia was for a while the "only game in town." Now, the window of opportunity "to really stake a claim as the savior" in the pandemic is gone. Complicating matters is that, unlike other vaccines, the first and second shots of Sputnik V are different and not interchangeable. Sputnik V is a viral vector vaccine that uses a harmless virus to carry genetic material that will stimulate the immune system. Working with biological ingredients means there are lots of places in the manufacturing process at which things could go wrong. WHO and the European Medicines Agency have yet to approve Sputnik V.

The FDA advisory panel is recommending a second shot of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine at least two months after the first shot. Consideration may also be given to allowing the use of Pfizer or Moderna as a booster. A University of Pennsylvania immunologist holds that "At the end of the day, folks having the Johnson & Johnson should probably get an mRNA booster." No other country has yet recommended a Johnson & Johnson booster.

Italy is setting a high bar on vaccine mandates. Workers will have to show proof of vaccination, a negative rapid swab test, or recent recovery from covid before returning to offices, schools, hospitals, or anywhere else. Workers unable to produce any of these will be placed on unpaid leave and could face fines of up to $1,760. Italy was the first democracy to quarantine towns and apply national lockdowns; it is also the first to do something this drastic. Over 80 percent of people over the age of 12 have been fully vaccinated. The government says that the measure is already helping. Over 500,000 previously unvaccinated people have gotten vaccinated since the policy was announced, more than had been expected. 

Chicago's largest police union issued a directive for officers to ignore the city-wide mandate to report their vaccination status. The city is treating it as an illegal strike; the governor has offered to send in the National Guard if too many police stop working. The city's mandate requires city employees who remain unvaccinated and refuse semiweekly testing to be placed on unpaid leave unless they have been granted medical or religious exemptions.

New Zealand is using some interesting strategies to try to get the last 20 percent of its eligible population vaccinated. People getting vaccinated can enter an Air New Zealand jumbo jet through the first class door and get vaccinated in the arm of their choosing. They then move to economy class for snacks and in-flight entertainment if desired and pass the 30-minute post-vaccine observation period. The plane stays on the ground. Papatoetoe supermarket is giving one hot roast chicken per shot. KFC is offering a family-sized bucket of KFC or a boxful of "popcorn chicken" nuggets. Finally, vaccination buses are waiting outside some McDonald's drive-through lanes.

Finally, a bit of positive news. Enrollment in bachelor's, master's, and doctoral programs in nursing in the US increased 5.6 percent in 2020 while nurses retire or leave citing burnout as the cause. The University of Michigan got about 1,800 applications for 150 slots compared with about 1,200 the year before. Young people are seeing the global emergency as both a challenge and an opportunity.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 78 (578)

Today' s post will be very short. My newest--three years old--laptop is acting up again so I'm back to the wee bitty keyboard on the travel laptop, not the most pleasant place to type. I'm also working early voting until 7:00 pm today and won't feel like writing/typing when I get home.

An FDA advisory panel will vote today on whether a booster shot of the Moderna vaccine should be added. It is not at all clear that they will say it is. Moderna appears to be keeping antibody levels up longer than Pfizer. Tomorrow the panel will vote on a possible second shot or booster for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. They will also discuss but not vote on whether Pfizer boosters should be extended to people not in high-risk groups.

Should the advisory panel recommend boosters, the FDA will decide whether to follow that recommendation. A CDC advisory panel and the CDC itself would also need to approve any recommendation. Don't write the director out either. In the cases of the Pfizer booster, the CDC director overrode the agency's recommendation and added front-line people to the list of those eligible for boosters.

And so the pandemic continues.....

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 77 (577)

I've been boostered! I got my third dose of Pfizer today, six months to the day after my second one. I even got a new vaccination card given that I did what they recommended at the time and laminated my original one. Some of the other people there were clearly getting boosters, but there were a few that may have been getting first or second doses. At least I hope they were.

The US will open its land borders to fully vaccinated people in November. Borders have been closed for about 19 months. It's hard to believe they've been closed for that long. I would not have thought it possible, but then I did not anticipate a pandemic such as the current one. Air travel restrictions will also be lifted in early November also for fully vaccinated people. Carry that vaccination card with pride!

Uneven access to vaccines and health care is increasing the gap between rich and poor nations. Wealthy nations give booster shots while 96 percent of people in low-income countries await an initial vaccination. The International Monetary Fund's chief economist explains, "Recent developments have made it abundantly clear that we are all in this together and the pandemic is not over anywhere until it is over everywhere." That sounds about right to me. 

China is giving third shots to elderly and high-risk groups including front-line professions such as  medical workers, immunocompromised people, people ages 60 and older, and travelers going to high-risk countries. The goal is fully vaccinating 80 percent of the population by the end of the year. I do not think I've seen a goal set here since the 70 percent by July 4 one tanked. I would not know where to begin on a goal except possibly to start from the idea that things will get worse again before they get too much better.

Minnesota is dealing with a covid surge; all counties there are at high risk for community transmission according to the CDC. New daily cases are up by 29 percent in the last two weeks, and hospitalizations are up by 17 percent. The daily case average on Monday was 2,932, the highest it has been in 2021. The daily case average bottomed out during the summer at 81, quite the difference from today. Ninety-six percent of the ICU beds in the state are in use, as are 93 percent of the non-ICU beds. All the hospitalized covid patients are unvaccinated; 59 percent of the state's population is fully vaccinated compared with the national average of 56 percent. Says the CEO of one of the state's largest medical systems, "Every element of our health system is incredibly stressed." 

Alaska was rationing health care not too long ago and is still struggling. Anchorage just approved a mask mandate following vigorous debate and demonstrations; everyone must wear a mask or face covering in public indoor spaces with limited exceptions for younger children and for religious or medical reasons. Some opponents of the mandate wore stars of David to the city council meeting to liken mask requirements to the persecution of Jews n the Holocaust. Don't get me started on how offensive I find this.

American Airlines and Southwest Airlines say that they will not comply with Texas's governor's executive ordering banning vaccine mandates. They say that they will continue to follow the federal mandate.They are not the only businesses feeling that way. The Greater Houston Partnership, a business group that includes such companies as ExxonMobil, Chevron, and JP Morgan Chase, also opposes the governor's order noting that it "does not support Texas businesses' ability and duty to create a safe work place."

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 76 (576)

Once again the Associated Press Morning Wire email contained no coronavirus news. And the only coronavirus news in CNN's 5 Things email was under the heading "Texas." The news there could have legitimately been listed under the state or the virus, but because there was other state news given, "Texas" was probably more appropriate. What happened in Texas related to the coronavirus? How about the governor's issuing an executive order prohibiting any entity, including a private business, from enforcing vaccine mandates. He also wants the state legislature to make this into a law. Now, my question is whether the law would be specific to coronavirus vaccine mandates or to all vaccine mandates including those of children entering school. I raise this question because the governor said that "...vaccines are strongly encouraged for those eligible to receive one, but must always be voluntary for Texans." Meanwhile, the death toll in Texas is nearing 70,000. I think that makes it about 10 percent of the nationwide death toll.

Dr. Fauci continues to remark that vaccines are crucial, with about one-fourth of the eligible US population still not vaccinated. In fact, more boosters are being given currently than first doses. Countries worldwide are instituting some form of vaccine mandates almost daily. They're just not good enough for Texas, I guess.

The question has been raised of whether an unvaccinated child is more at risk from covid than a vaccinated 70-year-old. Seattle releases some of the most detailed covid death data in the country. In those data it appears that the risks for unvaccinated children are roughly the same as for vaccinated people in their 50s. Data from England suggest that children under 12 appear to be at less risk than vaccinated people in the 40s. In other words, in terms of risk reduction, vaccinations are more valuable for older adults than they are for younger adults.

What does this say about requiring vaccinations for children? Most American parents of small children are between the ages of 25 and 39; only 55 percent of this group are vaccinated themselves. Three different polls yield similar results. The first reported that over half of parents of children between the ages of 3 and 11 said that they were unlikely to get them vaccinated. A second reported that only 26 percent of parents would vaccinate children between the ages of five and 11 "right away." Finally, the third reported that over 40 percent of parents of elementary- and middle-school-aged children would definitely not get them vaccinated unless it were required by school of for other activities. 

In biological terms, coronaviruses are relatively stable; they mutate, for example, more slowly than influenza. In terms of mutations, there are three things you don't want to see: the virus's becoming more transmissible, better at evading an immune response, or becoming more virulent. The Alpha variant was 50 percent more infectious that the original coronavirus; the Delta variant is 50 percent more infectious than the Alpha variant. However, covid vaccines are more effective than flu vaccines may ever have been. The author of "The End of Epidemics," a global health expert holds that the future "depends much more on what humans do than on what the virus does."

Look at the last bit again. The future depends on what we do, not on any variants the coronavirus throws at us. We are in charge, in other words. I repeated early on that we were fucked by the virus. It might be better at this point to say that we can fuck this up all on our own. We don't need any help form the virus. It's all on us.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 75 (575)

We're but three weeks away from Halloween and trick-or-treating. Will it be safe this year? Dr. Fauci thinks so, noting, "I think that particularly if you're vaccinated, you can get out there." This seems a bit off-center since children under 12--the mass of trick-or-treaters--are unvaccinated. Even were the FDA to approve doses for kids ages five to 11 right now, kids could not get fully vaccinated before Halloween if they follow the same two doses some weeks apart followed by two weeks of letting the vaccine do its thing that adults have followed.

Dr. Fauci went on to mention the holidays that follow Halloween. "It's a good time to reflect on why it's important to get vaccinated. But go out there and enjoy Halloween as well as the other holidays that will be coming up...we have to be careful that we don't prematurely declare victory." He did caution against indoor Halloween parties. The US seven-day average number of new cases dropped to 93,814 on Sunday. Dr. Fauci would still like to see fewer than 10,000 per day. Some experts would like to see airlines institute vaccine requirements before holiday travel takes place. A winter surge is definitely not out of the question.

Merck has asked the FDA for emergency use authorization for molnupiravir as a treatment for covid. It is the first antiviral pill treatment proposed for covid and is said to be "relatively inexpensive." Note the "relatively" there; treatment would cost about $700 per patient. That's one-third the price of monoclonal antibody treatments, though. The US government has placed an advance order for enough pills for 1.7 million Americans. Australia, Malaysia. Singapore, and South Korea have also placed advance orders.

The FDA will also be discussing Moderna and Johnson & Johnson boosters this week, Moderna on Thursday and Johnson& Johnson on Friday. They will also hear a presentation on Friday on the effectiveness of mixing different brands of vaccines. Meanwhile, Pfizer will fully vaccinate all eligible people in Toledo, Brazil to monitor a "real-life scenario" of how long Pfizer immunity lasts. It's a big week on the vaccine front.

A French study of 22.6 million people over the age of 50 suggests that vaccinated people are nine times less at risk of being hospitalized or dying from covid than unvaccinated people. Similar findings have been reported in the US, UK, and Israel. Hong Kong says it will only loosen restrictions if vaccination rates rise. Currently, all incoming travelers including residents returning from abroad must quarantine for 21 days. 

Sydney, Australia is starting to reopen after over 100 days of lockdown. They had said reopening could begin when over 70 percent of the New South Wales population had been fully vaccinated, and that percent is now at 73.5. Over 90 percent have gotten at least one dose. For now hairdressers, gyms, cafes, and bars may reopen. Additional restrictions will be removed when 80 percent full vaccination is reached. Right now, New South Wales just reported 496 new cases in 24 hours and eight deaths. The powers that be are cautioning that those rates will rise as Sydney reopens. The current covid surge has yet to peak in Melbourne.

 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 74 (574)

 It's not going to be a long post today. Son #2 came from Richmond to give me a weaving lesson, and I spent the afternoon with him what else weaving. Now, thanks to the laptop from Hell's being from Hell, I'm using a small burner laptop we got for our 2017 trip to Peru,with the emphasis on small. Anyway...

Speaking of something like our 2017 trip to Peru, international travel these days is not for the faint of heart. Which vaccines are approved for which countries and how likely are those to change while you're traveling? The UK, EU, and Shengen countries accept the four vaccines approved by the European Medicines Agency--AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson. The UK and many EU countries do not recognize the Chinese Sinopharm and Sinovac vaccines despite their being approved by the WHO. The US is still considering which vaccines to accept when it reopens to fully vaccinated travelers in November.  The FDA so far says that vaccines approved by the WHO would be accepted--Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca, AstraZeneca made in India, Sinopharm, and Sinovac. One concern is that we could end up with a two-tier system. People vaccinated with the most effective vaccines will be able to travel freely while people in developing countries won't be able to if they have gotten a "lesser" vaccine.

As for international travel, The Professor and I are thinking 2023 ... maybe ... with all things being subject to change at a moment's notice. Who knows, I may take along this annoyingly small laptop on one more great adventure.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 73 (573)

More quickies than substance today, but sometimes the quickies are more interesting. The Los Angeles County Sheriff has said not for the first time that he will defy the county order to have staff members all be vaccinated. He says so many deputies would leave that the office could no longer fulfill their obligations. 

Covid deaths in Brazil have gone over the 600,000 mark. The fourth health minister since the pandemic began compares mask mandates to birth control, saying, "Why would I pass a law to force people to use condoms? Don't even think of it." Will the death toll continue to rise? That could happen since Rio de Janeiro plans to hold a huge New Year's Eve party on Copacabana Beach.

Since the onset of the pandemic, the world has seen an estimated 76 million extra cases of anxiety and 53 million extra cases of major depressive disorder than would have otherwise been expected. Women and young people appear to be more likely to be affected than men or older people. One reason cited is that the pandemic has in general been harder on women financially.

Russia just set a new daily death record with 968 deaths in one 24-hour period. They also recorded 29,362 new cases in one day. At the same time, Russians are flocking to Serbia to get Western-made vaccines that have been approved by the WHO. The WHO is still reviewing the Sputnik V vaccine in light of issues at a production plant. Russians need WHO-approved vaccines to enter most other countries.

Singapore will be offering quarantine-free travel to vaccinated US travelers. At the same time, though, there were 3,590 new cases in Singapore on Friday, the most ever in one day. All the same, Singapore, I don't think I'll be visiting.

A scientist in the UK warns that high school students there could get herd immunity through infection rather than vaccination, if access to vaccine centers is not increased. 

Finally a little bit of depth. Health systems in Colorado and Washington are removing unvaccinated patients from transplant lists. Transplant recipients who catch covid have a 20 to 30 percent fatality rate; the rate for the rest of the population is 1.3 percent. Organ transplant patients who are vaccinated before getting the transplant are 80 percent less likely to get covid. Also, in a new twist, vaccinated patients may also be considered for organs from covid-positive donors. Personally, I don't think I'd like to get an organ from a covid-positive donor. Some people are vaccine hesitant. Count me as transplant hesitant.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 72 (572)

The Associated Press Morning Wire new summary I found in my inbox each morning today included no coronavirus news. I'm not sure if that it a good thing or a bad thing. Are we getting desensitized to it? Do we not follow it too closely any longer because it's same old same old? 

As for same old same old, not quite. The seven-day average number of covid cases peaked on September 1 at just over 160,000. That number has since fallen by 40 percent. Hospitalizations are down 30 percent. Deaths are down 13 percent since September 20. Is this part of the two-month covid cycle that has yet to be explained? A University of Minnesota epidemiologist explains, "We are still in the cave ages in terms of understanding how viruses emerge, how they spread, how they start and stop, how they do what they do." In other words, it's okay to say that we don't know what is happening and what will happen. We do know that people for the most part move indoors when the winter cold sets in; this suggests that the next few months will be critical in trying to keep the virus in check.

WHO has issued a clinical case definition of "long covid." Symptoms appear within three months of infection, last for at least two months, and can not be explained by any other diagnosis. That's pretty general, I know, but the range of long covid symptoms or conditions that I've seen is pretty broad. Making the list of symptoms more specific could quite possibly miss something or some things. 

A data journalist (I've never heard of that career) and an economics student have developed something called the World Mortality Dataset that has become the basis of estimates of covid mortality by publications such as the Economist and Financial Times. Using this index, the Economist suggests that the real covid death toll is 16 million rather than the previously reported 4.8 million. This would make it much worse than we think but nowhere near as bad as 1918's flue pandemic that claimed 75 million lives. The 16 million figure would likely be higher if that dataset were not missing most African and many Asian countries including some with sizeable populations. 

I've been thinking about the approval of some covid vaccine(s) for children between the ages of five and 11. How vaccine hesitant are parents going to be when it comes to their children? Will the fact that younger children are still developing in so many ways make parents more cautious? Will they worry that the vaccine might affect puberty? I know that teenagers are still developing and growing in so many ways, but figure that parents will be a bit more protective of younger children. It will be interesting to see how vaccine eligibility for such children goes.

If covid cases and hospitalizations stay stable or decline, San Francisco will relax some of its covid restrictions. In indoor settings such as offices, gyms, fitness centers, religious gatherings, and college classes, people will be able to remove their masks if everyone there has been vaccinated, with those vaccinations verified. The employer or host must provide proper ventilation and ensure that no children under the age of 12 are present. Indoor mask mandates would remain in place for more other public settings including retail businesses and common areas such as elevators, lobbies, and restrooms. 

As I read through news updates, I realize that I am not at all reporting or opining on the many economic matters related to covid. Perhaps I should have taken an economics class somewhere along my educational journey. So much of what I read make some sense, but not usually complete enough that I feel comfortable addressing it.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 71 (571)

I'm working a late (until 7:00 pm) shift of voting today and would prefer not to be writing after that, so here goes. Let's start with vaccines. As of September, 41.5 percent of the world's population had received at least one dose of a vaccine, but only 1.9 percent of people in low-income countries had. The creator of the Oxford vaccine warns that the "ever evolving" virus "continues to circulate unchecked," and no country in the world is truly safe. Some experts are unhappy that the new emphasis on boosters and child doses is detracting from getting the whole world vaccinated. 

As for boosters, more Americans are currently getting boosters than are getting first-time vaccinations. Vaccine hesitancy and opposition to mask or vaccine mandates are roiling local governments and hurting the nation's overall recovery. The issue of vaccine mandates is not going to get any better should the FDA authorize pediatric doses of vaccine, opening the door to a new class of at-school mandates. Pfizer has formally asked for approval of their vaccine for children ages five to 11. A meeting on the subject is tentatively scheduled for October 26 meaning that the ruling could come between Halloween and Thanksgiving. Pfizer's proposal is that children get one-third of the adult dose, something that would require diluting the vaccine or using different vials or syringes. 

Twenty medical centers in Alaska are now rationing care. One in 84 Alaskans was diagnosed with covid in the last week of September, and Monday's report was 2,290 cases and one death in three days. Hospitals are looking for beds in other states; some patients have been medevaced to Seattle. Alaska is the largest state geographically and is geographically larger than the next three largest state combined. Those states would be California, Montana, and Texas. Because of this enormity, Alaskans travel on average 150 miles each way for medical care. 

North Korea has started to accept medical supplies from WHO. No cases of covid have been reported, though, and the country has turned down several offers of vaccines. WHO is sending health kits, medicines, and other supplies that would help at primary care centers. France will start charging unvaccinated people between $25 and $50 for a covid test. Tests will remain free for vaccinated people and minors as will tests ordered by a physician. The hope is that this will increase vaccination rates. Germany is implementing a similar system.

Here's a final thought to ponder. Covid has already killed more people in 2021 than it did in 2020. Let's not think we're out of the woods just yet.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 70 (570)

This morning I made an appointment to get my covid booster shot next week, six months after my second dose. The local health department has set up a vaccination center in an empty storefront at the local indoor mall. Going out there to get the shot will let me see just how dead the mall has become. I remember, way back in my grad student days, when the mall opened, and the office staff of the psychology department spent their lunch hours checking it out. A hot commodity then that is looking now at a very uncertain future. 

There is exciting medical news not connected with the coronavirus. The WHO has approved the first malaria vaccine. Malaria is one of the oldest and deadliest infectious diseases. It kills about 500,000 people annually, nearly all of them in sub-Saharan Africa and more than half of them children. I've taken two trips that put me squarely in malaria zones (Cambodia and the Amazon), and anti-malarials were one of the first things I investigated on the planning end of the trips. The people who live in malaria zones can't exactly live on anti-malarials, making a vaccine truly valuable.

As for children and covid, children under the age of 18 are 22 percent of the American population but account for 27 percent of covid cases. The CDC says that 645 children have died from covid. That's a very small part of the total death toll, but the loss of entire lives not lived. What might those children have accomplished had they reached adulthood? The FDA is currently reviewing trial test results for children between the ages of five and 11. They're also considering whether a second, booster, shot of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine might be needed.

Overall, US covid cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are falling. There are still causes for concern, though. Most of the deaths were in unvaccinated people, and around 68 million eligible Americans remain unvaccinated. A University of Washington epidemiologist and former CDC scientist notes, "We're not out of danger. This virus is too opportunistic and has taught us one lesson after another." That last sentence makes it seem as if the virus is a conscious entity plotting against us, perhaps an alien invader from another planet. I only hope that we remember what we have learned from this viral entity and perhaps deal better with a new, different one in the future. 

Will there be another winter surge? I would like to think that we've learned enough about vaccinations and mitigation measures such as masking that holiday gatherings are not the superspreader events many of them were a year ago. I would also like to think that my glasses are clear plastic and not a bit rose-colored. Last year, the surge to our north in the wake of Canada's Thanksgiving foretold what we were hit by. Canadian Thanksgiving is this coming Monday; the next couple of weeks may be truly telling.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 69 (569)

I'm working early voting this afternoon, so this is a morning post. Remember the CDC holiday guidance I wrote about yesterday? By the end of the day, it had been removed from the CDC website and replaced with a message saying that guidance would be coming. Dr. Fauci evidently was criticized for saying in a Sunday interview that it was too early to tell if there should be in-person Christmas gatherings. He was lambasted as wanting to cancel Christmas. He later backed down what he had said and noted that he would be having a Christmas gathering this year. Personally, it is too early to tell what people should do for the Christmas and New Years holidays. We're talking three months out. A lot can happen in three months, as we've been reminded more than once during the pandemic.

New Zealand will phase out its "elimination strategy" in favor of a model taking vaccination rates into account. Vaccines give more options for controlling spread and preventing hospitalizations. Strict lockdowns will end once 90 percent of the eligible population is fully vaccinated. Right now, just over 46 percent of the eligible population ages 12 and over is fully vaccinated, though 76 percent have had at least one dose. They have a ways to go to get to 90. 

Our neighbor to the north has some worrisome provinces. In Manitoba, the seven-day average of new cases increased over 50 percent in the last two weeks. The percent positivity and number of hospitalizations are also rising. New restrictions on business capacity and the size of both indoor and outdoor gatherings are coming. To the west, Alberta counted more covid cases in September than in any previous month. 

The results of a new survey suggest that covid has caused most US teachers to update their classroom style. Some 71 percent say that they will blend old and new styles tried during the pandemic; only 23 percent said that they would revert to the way they taught before the pandemic. Five percent said that they would change everything about the way they taught. In terms of communication, 56 percent say they are now more confident about collaborating with colleagues while 52 percent said they were more confident communicating with families. Finally, half say that they are more confident using technology to engage students. I'm actually a bit surprised that only half feel that way. I would have expected more would be more confident given the amount of technology they  learned to use for virtual or hybrid schooling. 

New York City's vaccine mandate for its schools went into effect yesterday. With 99 percent of principals and 96 percent of teachers having had at least one dose, I'd say it was pretty successful. Threats continue to produce more results than bribes.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 68 (568)

Case and hospitalization numbers are, for the most part, headed down. The seven-day average number of new cases dropped from about 151,000 on September 14 to about 106,000 on September 29. That's a 29 percent decrease according to the CDC. Still, there are seven states that saw at least a 14 percent increase over two weeks, according to The New York Times. That list includes Maine with a 29 percent increase and North Dakota with a 25 percent increase. The big winner (loser?), though, is Alaska which saw a 75 percent (that is not a typo) increase. At least two hospitals in the state are actively rationing care, treating one patient knowing that another one will die as a result. 

I think I've mentioned before that covid seems to be on a two-month cycle of surging for two months then declining for two months. This pattern has occurred during different seasons of the year and even when human behavior is not changing in obvious ways. It appears globally and has been seen within different countries. We appear to be on the decline side of the pattern, which does not mean that another surge will follow. One reason for optimism that another surge is by no means definite is that 76 percent of Americans age 12 and over have gotten at least one dose of vaccine. Another reason for optimism that made me sit back and think for a bit is that half of Americans have probably had covid and therefore have some natural immunity. Half? Really?

In terms of another surge, the precautions people take or don't take over the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays will be crucial. The CDC recommends that people get vaccinated before holiday gatherings, wear masks, and celebrate virtually if possible. That is not what a lot of people want to hear, though, starting with the vaccination suggestion. While the threat of losing jobs has persuaded a large number of people to seek vaccination, most of the vaccine hesitancy factors remain in place. Right-wing and religious opposition and skepticism have not gone away and neither have concerns over the vaccines' safety. So let's try this argument in favor of vaccinations. Of the 700,000 Americans who have died of covid, almost 200,000 would likely have been saved had those people been vaccinated. 

What are some of the talking heads saying? The director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Politics at the University of Minnesota offers, "Will the next surges be as big as this current one? It's not likely, but it's possible. When you have 70 million people left who have not been vaccinated, many of whom have not yet been infected, that's a lot of human wood for this coronavirus human forest fire to burn...people are feeling like this is the end, [but] we're vaccinating very few people for the first time. There will be more to come." An epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University feels that, as a country, we need to define what the "off ramps" are in terms of covid. If we don't do that, we won't know when the virus really has, at least for the most part, exited.

Kids here in the US are back in schools while teachers are fleeing in record numbers. If they're not quitting, they're retiring early. Teacher shortages were a problem even before the pandemic. Fort Worth, Texas had 314 vacancies at the beginning of this school year; it had 71 vacancies at the beginning of the 2019-20 school year. Teacher vacancies in Florida this year increased by over 67 percent compared to August 2020. Nationally, schools have seen over 200,000 reported cases of covid in schoolchildren in the last five weeks, mostly in areas that have no school mask mandate. I can see why teachers want to leave.

On the quickie front, Johnson & Johnson is seeking FDA authorization for booster shots of its vaccine. One of the National Basketball Association players facing not being able to play in home games has now been vaccinated. One incentive was that he would have lost the salary he's paid for that number of games. Finally, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation poll, 37 percent overall and 55 percent of Republicans believe immigrants and tourists are the major source of covid spread. I've heard the immigrant argument before. But tourists? We haven't been allowing tourists from Canada, Mexico, Europe, China, and probably s bunch of other nations, so how can they be the ones bringing covid with them?

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 67 (567)

Oh joy, it appears that the newer variants of the coronavirus are better at traveling through the air than the original versions were. Masks may become even more important both in how often we wear them and of what material they're made. It makes me shake my head even more at the people who won't get vaccinated. 

At least the vaccine mandates put in place by some businesses are working. People don't want to lose jobs and will for that reason get themselves vaccinated. I use to talk about parenting in terms of when a parent could start using the tools of threats and bribes. It seems that the threat of losing one's job works better than the bribe of a lottery ticket.

And tomorrow I get to dive into more details again. I can't say I've missed that, but I have felt a wee bit out of touch.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 66 (566)

Covid note for today: The US is approaching 700,000 deaths from covid, a number that is certainly under-counted. There were 675,000 deaths counted in the 1981-19 influenza pandemic, another number that was likely under-counted. The five million covid deaths globally are likely under-counted as well. Would we really want to know how under-counted all the numbers are and were? I truly don't know. 

I was not the only person at the Fall Fiber Festival wearing a mask. Fewer than half the people there were masked, but I'll take what I can get in that regard.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 65 (565)

This is the weekend of the Fall Fiber Festival here. I spent today setting up the shop in which I will be working. Tomorrow and Sunday, I work. When I started this annual gig, the boss told me I could get paid in money or merch. I chose the merch. I hope not to totally ignore this blog. I'm going to try to include something, even a little thing, covid-related teach day, but other than those little things, I'm going to be recovering each evening from the day just spent. 

Today's little covid-related thing is that today I met one of the festival's organizers who, in her day job, is a nurse. Specifically, she tends to the people who have left the ICU but may not leave the hospital for several months. I learned that a covid patient's lungs are so shot that they spend a lot of time lying on their stomach to reduce the strain on their lungs. Three months is not an unreasonable time once a patient leaves the ICU before they leave the hospital.

I also learned that I will not be the only person there tomorrow wearing a mask. A bit of my faith in the human race has been restored. 

Have a good weekend. If you're in the neighborhood of Orange, Virginia, the Fall Fiber Festival is at Montpelier, the estate of James Madison.