The View from the Hermitage, Day 442

It's Memorial Day, and because I always encouraged my kids to find out things they asked me about, I found an answer to a question I had. Is the aim of Memorial Day to honor soldiers (I use "soldiers" in the broadest sense, to include sailors, Marines, pilots, etc.) who died in battle or to honor all deceased veterans? That question is not the correct one. "In battle" is too narrow a term, and "all deceased veterans" is too wide. The references I found mentioned remembering and honoring military personnel who died "while on duty" or "in the performance of their military duties." So the soldier did not have to die in battle, just while serving. 

Over 400 US colleges and universities have a fall vaccination mandate. At some schools, it applies to all students; at others, such as the University of Michigan, it only applies to students who will be living in dormitories. The American College Health Association recommended the mandates, which make sense from a public health perspective. A study undergoing peer review reported that reopening campuses last fall led to a rise in local infection rates in surrounding counties. Over half of the schools with student mandates are not requiring faculty and staff to be vaccinated. Employees have more rights than students; there are also legal challenges for employees that do not apply to students. There are states, including Texas and Florida, in which the governor has explicitly outlawed vaccination mandates. 

Continuing the Olympic Games saga, it seems that Japanese may be allowed to attend events if they have proof of vaccination or a negative covid test. A final decision will be made next month. As for the more than three quarters of the population that want the Games cancelled, Olympic officials predict that opposition to the Games will melt away as the July 23 opening nears.

The declining case rates in the US may be unrealistically optimistic for the unvaccinated half of the population. Adjusting for vaccinations, the case rate among unvaccinated people is 73 percent higher than the standard figures being publicized. The death rate among unvaccinated people is as high as the overall death rate was two months ago; the hospitalization rate is as high as three months ago. The current national case rate for unvaccinated residents is similar to the case rate for all residents on December 31, 2020. Covid is spreading as fast among unvaccinated people as it did during the winter surge. Maine, Colorado, Rhode Island, and Washington all have covid spikes among unvaccinated people that are about double the adjusted national rate. Data for Washington show that unvaccinated seniors are 11 times as likely to be hospitalized as seniors who got vaccinated. For people ages 45 to 64, the hospitalization rate for unvaccinated people is 18 times higher. 

It's Monday of the long weekend, so travelers are likely on their way home. In the fall, travel over a long weekend led to predictions and anxiety over the size of the surge to follow. Whether we see one after this long weekend may be a good indicator of the extent to which we can believe the pundits who report that we're on our way out of the coronavirus forest.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 441

Sixty-three weeks into the pandemic, it's shaping up to be something of a mask-less Memorial Day weekend. I'm not sure if that's a good thing or not. Medical types say that people who are fully vaccinated and basically healthy should feel protected, even without a mask. Those who have not yet been vaccinated including children are still at risk and should not yet doff their masks. The current seven-day average number of cases is 21,627, a 22 percent decrease from last week and inching toward the 10,000 Dr. Fauci said was needed to roll back restrictions. For some holiday healthy fun, New Jersey will be holding Shots at the Shore at various beach sites. Adults can choose between Moderna, Pfizer, or Johnson & Johnson vaccines, while 12- to 15-year-olds can have Pfizer.

To the south, the mayor of Miami Beach, Florida is offering a touch of reality to the holiday weekend, noting, "We're one of the few places open, but we're also a very attractive destination. So simply, too many people are coming ... The virus is still here. The volume of people that have been coming here is very unprecedented, and some who are coming are looking to sort of act out." He said that there will be lots of police at the beaches.

Also concerning Florida, hurricane season begins on Tuesday. People who make predictions are predicting 13 to 20 named storms, and we've already had one, Ana, which stayed out to sea. Six to 10 of the named storms could develop into hurricanes.

While vaccination incentives are increasing vaccination rates, the lottery incentives are cause for concern to some problem gamblers. Said one, "I am appreciative that the government is trying to do something promoting people getting vaccinated. At the same time, the are putting people in an awkward position ... One thing leads to another, and the next thing I know, I am in Atlantic City." Winning is not the incentive, but the feeling of taking a chance. Being entered unwillingly into a lottery has the potential of activating the same parts of the brain that respond to overt gambling. Some states have lists through which problem gamblers can make themselves ineligible to get lottery winnings; in most cases, the people on these lists are excluded from vaccination lotteries. Those not on such lists can usually get themselves removed from vaccination lotteries, but it might take some time to make a few phone calls. Recognizing the issue, Ohio requires that vaccinated people opt into the lotteries.

Some, perhaps all, of us have made various changes to our shopping during the pandemic. I'm buying more, a lot more, online not to mention buying different things such as in trying new brands. I have not though, been part of the spike in gun sales during the pandemic. (Disclaimer: I do own several guns but only shoot at pieces of paper tacked to sticks, and it's been several years since I've done even that.) The spike started early in the pandemic. In March 2020, federal background checks topped one million in a week for the first time since tracking started 23 years ago. In spring 2021, the number was up to 1.2 million. A fifth of the Americans who have bought guns during the pandemic are first-time buyers. They are also less likely to be white males. Half of the new buyers are women, while a fifth are Black and a fifth Hispanic. Gun owners in general are 63 percent male, 73 percent White, 10 percent Black, and 12 percent Hispanic. Right now, 39 percent of American households own guns, up from 32 percent in 2016. Think about the fact that the early days of the pandemic saw panic buying of guns, disinfectant, and toilet paper. 

Elsewhere, Italy recorded 44 deaths Sunday down from 83 on Saturday. Looking back further, the 44 on May 30 came after 72 on May 23, 93 on May 16, and 139 on May 9. The 44 is the lowest number of deaths since mid-October. Egypt is lifting restrictions while South Africa is starting new lockdown measures on Monday as a new surge starts there.

Records are dropping on Mt. Everest. A 75-year-old retired lawyer from Chicago has become the oldest American to summit. A 45-year-old former teacher from Hong Kong has become the fastest woman to summit, going from base camp to the summit in 25 hours, 50 minutes with only two brief stops. The previous record was 39 hours, 6 minutes. Most climbers spend several days in different camps on their way up. Finally, a 46-year-old Chinese man has become Asia's first and the world's third blind man to summit from Nepal. Call me an underachiever, but I really don't see the point of setting such records. Does it really benefit anyone? Couldn't the time and money be better used in some different undertaking?

The View from the Hermitage, Day 440

Remember the Idaho lieutenant governor who banned mask mandates while the governor was at a conference? As I expected, the governor returned and repealed the ban, calling it “an irresponsible, self-serving political stunt.” The governor noted that he opposes mask mandates because he thinks government should not tell people what to do, but he does not want to undermine separately elected officials. In case you were wondering how the two officials, both Republicans, could be in such disagreement, candidates for the two positions do not run as a ticket as in the presidential election. 

I think I mentioned a couple of days ago that the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission was looking into whether employers could require employees to be vaccinated and offer them rewards for getting vaccinated. The answers are affirmative in both cases. Employers can require employees to be vaccinated and can also offer incentives, including cash, to help persuade them to get that way.

When my mom got her covid vaccination, she said that pretty much all the residents at her assisted living facility were getting vaccinated, but only about a third of the staff were. About the same time, March, nearly half of frontline health care workers had not been vaccinated despite being in the first groups eligible for the vaccine. The problem persists. At a nursing home in Kentucky, an unvaccinated worker contracted covid and set off an outbreak that rose to 22 cases among residents and staff who had been fully vaccinated. One of the 22 died.

In Mexico, many doctors, dentists, and medical workers in private medicine would like to be vaccinated but can’t be. Even though more health workers have died in Mexico than any other Western hemisphere country, health workers are not high on the vaccine priority list. Teachers from both public and private schools are higher priority than private-sector physicians. “Teachers” includes bureaucrats in public education and support staff at universities. Even reporters and editors at school media outlets get vaccinated before doctors. According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, Mexico’s death toll exceeds 600,000, nearly triple the official figure, and the country has spent less than one percent of their Gross Domestic Product on their response to covid.

Melbourne is experiencing another outbreak; cases currently total 35. Four of those cases were linked to a food distribution driver. Midway through a four-day lockdown, they performed 56,624 test on Saturday and 47, 462 on Friday. Right now, there are over 15,000 primary and secondary contacts self-isolating. In the same hemisphere, Vietnam has warned of a new variant that spreads very quickly by air and is a combination of the India and UK variants. They’ve seen over 6,700 cases including 47 deaths, most of which have occurred since April.

Totally apart from the coronavirus, have you heard that Unidentified Flying Objects are now Unidentified Aerial Phenomena? Since UFO in QuiltLand stands for UnFinished Object, I’m open to suggestions on what UAP should stand for there.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 439

Getting international news out of the way first, Japan has extended the state of emergency in Tokyo and eight other prefectures until June 20 at the earliest. Opening ceremonies of the Olympics are set for July 23. Meanwhile, Japan's vaccine rollout is the slowest among industrialized nations with only 2.4 percent of people fully vaccinated. The government's schedule calls for only people over 65 to be fully vaccinated before the Games. In terms of the Chinese origins of the coronavirus, intelligence officials have supposedly told the White House that they have untapped evidence on covid origins. They just need more time for computer analysis of that evidence.

The CDC predicts covid cases will fall over the coming month due to vaccinations. To help, New York City plans to send buses to beaches and parks to vaccinate people. California is starting an incentive program called Vax for the Win. Ten residents who have had at least one shot will get $1.5 million each. Another 30 will get $50,000 each. And two million lucky residents will get $50 gift cards. Right now, 56 percent of California's population has gotten at least one dose, while 42 percent are fully vaccinated. 

Wisconsin offers a good example of vaccine issues. Its vaccine rates vary between urban and rural areas and different political, racial, or religious leanings. Forty-seven percent of Wisconsin residents have gotten at least one dose of vaccine, lower than Vermont's 70 percent but higher than Mississippi's 34 percent. While the vaccination rate for Republicans is going up, 20 percent still say that they definitely will not get vaccinated. Among Democrats, that percentage is four. In Wisconsin, the best predictor of vaccine skepticism is a belief that the 2020 election was stolen from XPot. The lowest vaccination rate among counties is 25 percent for Taylor County in north-central Wisconsin. There, XPot received 72 percent of the vote. In Clark Country, home to large Amish and Mennonite communities, 26 percent have gotten at least one dose. In Clark, XPot received 67 percent of the vote. Says the immunization director  there, "At some point we will have vaccinated everyone who wants the vaccine. I think we may be at that point in Clark County."

Interestingly, a rural county, Door County, has the highest rate in the state for full vaccination, 56 percent. Why? Door County is dependent upon tourism, giving some incentive. Also, though, before vaccines had even been delivered, medical center staff began hosting weekly Facebook Q&A sessions that got thousands of views. Besides the tourism angle, residents of Door County thus had more vaccine information than did many other rural counties. In a past post to this blog and if I remember the entity correctly, there was initial hesitancy about vaccinations among members of the Fire Department of New York City. Someone collected questions from the firefighters and had those questions answered by doctors. The hesitancy lessened, and the vaccination rate rose.

Idaho's governor is in Nashville, Tennessee for a meeting of the Republican Governors Association, so the lieutenant governor--who just happens to have recently announced her bid to become governor--banned mask mandates. Her order states that wearing masks has done "significant mental, social, and economic harm" and failed to serve a health or safety purpose. When the cat's away, the mice will play? I don't expect that the governor will return and overturn the order, but I can always hope.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 438

The picture continues to look brighter in the US, little by little. In the past week, Wyoming was the only state to show a 10 to 50 percent increase in the number of covid cases. States holding steady, with  the number of cases changing between -10 and 10 percent were Idaho, California, Arizona, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, and Virginia. All other state showed declines between 10 and 50 percent. The pace across the US fell by almost 20 percent over the last week, the fifth straight week of double digit declines. 

The worst covid hot spot in North America right now is Manitoba, Canada; covid is spreading faster there than anywhere else in Canada, the US, or Mexico. Currently, Manitoba is seeing 35 new cases per 100,000 of population, compared with seven per 100,000 in the US and two per 100,000 in Mexico. In between sit Alberta with 16 per 100,000 and Colorado with 15 per 100,000. Between May 1 and 19, indigenous and other nonwhite people accounted for 61 percent of Manitoba's cases even though they make up 37 percent of the province's population. People of Southeast Asian descent are the most disproportionately affected at 146 cases per 100,000. The province's premier says that the problem is not caused by too few restrictions but by people not complying with the restrictions that have existed.

Facebook has lifted its ban on posts that claim covid was man-made; the ban was put in place in February 2021. The ban was lifted "in light of ongoing investigations into the origin." Did covid come from the Wuhan Institute of Virology? The report of three staff falling ill is "uncorroborated evidence from a foreign source." This means that is was not obtained and has not yet been verified by a US intelligence agency. The initial claim was made during XPot's administration. Some questions that jump to mind include whether the symptoms suffered were from covid or from another ailment or virus such as influenza. And if the symptoms were from covid, was it related to the work in the lab or was it caught on the open market. The US has 18 intelligence agencies (that's certainly more than I thought); of those, two lean toward covid coming from animal to human transmission, and one leans more to the lab theory side. Needless to say, China is against any further investigation and says that the US is trying to stigmatize it.

Another short post, but it's been that kind of a week going in several different directions at the same time. Just one of those things...

The View from the Hermitage, Day 437

According to WHO, global covid cases dropped 14 percent last week, with the largest decreases happening in Europe. Overall case numbers and deaths are still high, though. We are by no means out of the woods yet, but hopefully we are now on the path. There are even two new studies out that suggest covid immunity may last a year or even a lifetime. They suggest that most people who were infected and later vaccinated may not need boosters.

Was that an optimistic comment I just made? I don't know. I did learn, however, how optimistic different groups are with respect to reopening. Specifically, men are more optimistic than women, parents are more optimistic than people without children, and the rich are more optimistic than the poor. The biggest dividing line on economic optimism is access to health care and health insurance. I have to admit that the fact that parents are more optimistic than people without children seems a wee bit counterintuitive to me. Perhaps it is wishful thinking that reopening will put children back in school, back at after-school or sports sessions, and give parents a bit of a break. As for men being more optimistic than women, 14 percent of mothers who stopped looking for work during the pandemic said that they did no to look after their family. A comparable percent for men? That would be three.

With only 58 days until the Opening Ceremonies, scientists warn that "canceling the games may be the safest option." Japan remains in a state of emergency with some 70,000 active cases and a mere five percent of the population vaccinated. The IOC does have a plan; unfortunately, it relies on unsuccessful mitigation measures such as temperature checks and contact tracing apps. Not to mention that: (1) No safety guidance has been given in terms of the risks associated with outdoor and indoor activities. (2) Athletes and support personnel have to bring their own masks. (3) Little detail has been provided on testing frequency and hotel isolation as well as limited contact tracing. (4) Athletes contracting covid will have limited insurance coverage. 

One of the major Japanese newspapers is also calling for Olympic cancellation, warning that the Games are a threat to public health and will place additional strain on the country's health service. This paper is one of several Japanese media organizations listed as official Tokyo 2020 sponsors who have called for the Games to be cancelled. Additionally, a prominent economist warns that the economic loss from cancellation would be small compared to the cost of the emergency measures needed if the Games turn out to be super-spreader events. 

POTUS is calling for a new or continued investigation into the origins of the coronavirus, and he would like the report ready in 90 days. I can't imagine that the Chinese will be especially cooperative, which means we will likely never know with any degree of certainty just how the spread started. I can see the value in knowing, though, in terms of avoiding or lessening the chances of another such pandemic. Were it to be determined with a reasonable degree of certainty that the virus was released deliberately or accidentally from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, what would the next step be? A slap on the knuckles and advisement not to let it happen again? Or would we simply use the knowledge to help guard against future viral releases?

I broke down over the weekend and ordered drapes for the dining room. They arrived today, and I think the color is just right. I still need to get the sort of rod that is needed, but I'm optimistic these will work. Don't ask how many other windows need new drapes or curtains. I don't need any more reminders than I get every time I see the unmatched colors of the old window coverings that we put up to serve as insulation through the winter.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 436

Half of US adults are now fully vaccinated against the coronavirus. Including people under the age of 18 drops the percent to 39. People under 24 are especially lagging in vaccinations. They may be at lower risk of dying from covid but could still face long-term effects. At least 10,000 vaccinated people were infected with covid through the end of April, but the CDC no longer investigates mild cases. They only look into cases that result in hospitalization or death. 

How much do you trust people to be honest about their vaccination status? As expected, that varies. Eighty-eight percent of people surveyed would trust the responses of family or friends, while 71 percent would trust the responses of coworkers. For people one meets but who are outside the immediate social circle, the trust percentage drops to 38. Thirty-one percent of people surveyed would trust the vaccine-resistant. (I have to interject here that I would not at all trust someone I knew to be vaccine-resistant but who said they had been vaccinated. I'd need to see their CDC vaccination card.) People dining indoors or at a bar or nightclub and people attending outdoor sporting events of concerts would be trusted by 25 percent of people surveyed, virtually identical to the 24 percent  who would trust people at an airport. To be a good data scientist, I should report that there was a 3.2 percent margin of error.

In something of a call center reversal, desperate patients in India are turning to doctors in the US. Many of the connections are made through the American Association of Physicians of Indian Origin. The US doctors cannot write prescriptions but can offer guidance on how to use steroids or other medications Indian patients can get on their own in India. They can also offer guidance on how to interpret symptoms and lab results. Nineteen countries including Nepal, Iran, and South Africa are most at risk of running out of oxygen. Nepal, for example, now needs more than 100 times as much oxygen as it did in March. The US State Department's Level 4 travel warning for Japan--"Do not travel to Japan due to covid-19"--is somewhat moot. Right now, Japan has closed its borders to all but citizens and residents. The unknown "they" say that this warning will not complicate preparation for the Olympics that most of Japan wants nothing to do with. 

Finally, today is the first anniversary of the death of George Floyd. Has there been much change, real or imagined? How many officer-involved shootings have happened in the 12 months since Mr. Floyd died? Do Black lives matter more now than they did a year ago? I don't think such questions can easily be answered, especially out of context. I'm not sure what would have to happen to convince me.

Not a long post, but life is getting in the way. The new prescriptions glasses I got last week have never felt right, beyond the normal period of time getting used to new lenses. I'll see another optometrist on Friday to see whether their take on the prescription agrees with the first optometrist. There were no surprises at today's physical. I shall be looking into the shingles vaccine and have appointments in July for a bone density scan and a pneumonia vaccination. Growing older can be so inconvenient.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 435

A US intelligence report says that several researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology fell ill in November 2019 and were hospitalized. The lab director calls the report "a complete lie." Needless to say, this is only adding to the confusion over the source of the novel coronavirus. When asked if he was confident covid developed naturally Dr. Fauci said, "No, I am not convinced about that ... I think we should continue to investigate what went on in China..." It's not clear we will ever know with certainty where the virus originated.

At least 25 states plus the District of Columbia have now fully vaccinated half of their adult residents. Almost half the US population has gotten at least one dose. As a result, the US is recording some of the lowest covid data points in about a year. States have been offering incentives such as lotteries or free tuition for those getting vaccinated. Businesses have also started offering vaccination incentives to employees. Those offering monetary incentives may run into trouble, though, even though the amount offered is generally lower than $500. The US Equal Employment Opportunity Commission says there is no clear standard for how large a reward can be without violating federal diversity, anti-discrimination, and privacy laws. 

Asia continues to fight coronavirus surges. Vietnam and Singapore were praised for containing the virus a year ago but are now racing to contain clusters and start lockdown measures. Singapore's surge comes despite 25 percent of the population's being fully vaccinated. Health officials blame the Indian variant for the surge. They say that the speed of the spread is frightening; one report mentioned seeing four generations of spread within a period of 10 days. Vietnam has seen over 2,000 new cases since late April, or almost 40 percent of the 5,119 cumulative infections. 

The Tokyo Olympics saga continues. An official of the IOC insists that "sacrifices" must be made to ensure the Games happen. Who should make those sacrifices and in what form were not specified, but the Japanese media expect that it will be the Japanese people. That the IOC has booked blocks of rooms in four of the more expensive hotels in Tokyo has not gone unnoticed. Unless the IOC backs down or Japan steps up, seven or eight weeks from now will find 80,000 to 100,000 people from 200 countries arriving during what might still be a state of emergency. The US State Department today issued a Stage 4 advisory, saying that Americans should not go to Japan. I wonder what the US Olympic people think about that.

Robert Reich, Democratic activist and former US Secretary of Labor, wrote a column on eight lessons to be learned from the pandemic. Here, without some of the details, they are. (1) Workers are always essential; they deserve far better than they've been getting. (2) Health care is a basic right, and everyone should be insured. (3) Conspiracy theories can be deadly. (4) The stock market is not the economy; stock prices rising does not automatically mean the economy is improving. (5) Wages are too low to get by on; a higher minimum wage is needed. (6) Remote work is now baked into the economy. (7) Billionaires aren't the answer; taxes must be raised on the top. (8) Government can be the solution, and may need to be again.

A not-yet-peer-reviewed article reports that dogs can detect covid in under a second with 94.3 percent sensitivity. The study used clothing from infected people and included both asymptomatic people and people with low viral loads. Dogs already are used to detect cancers and monitor blood sugar. It takes about eight weeks to train a dog to a specific odor. They really are our best friends, not that I ever had any doubt about that.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 434

Day 434 is 62 weeks in. Last night we hosted the first non-family members we've had in our house for longer than that. All fully vaccinated, we sat around the table mask-less, catching up on the far too long since we'd last been together. There are more friends we want to catch up with, but not on too fast a schedule. It takes time for an introvert to start re-engaging with the world.

The National Basketball Association opens the door to comparing two years of the pandemic. The NBA is just starting playoffs. Last year, the playoffs were done in a bubble with no ill effects. This year, there is no bubble nor are there mandatory vaccinations, and the League eased mitigation rules two months ago. Quarantines are no longer mandatory after exposure, and vaccinated players no longer have to get tested on off days. Dining is allowed in outdoor restaurants, and friends and families can visit fully vaccinated players without checking in with the team. For teams meeting an 85 percent threshold, no masks are required at practice facilities. In-person team meetings and meals on team flights are also permitted. What the virus might hold in store for this year's playoffs is yet to be seen but cause for concern.

Despite the players being young, strong athletes, some have had worrisome lingering effects of their bouts with covid. Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics just scored 50 points in a play-in game but needs to use an inhaler before games because of fatigue and breathing difficulties. Tatum had covid in January 2021. Another Celtic, Evan Fournier, had covid in April. He reports that his vision and depth perception are still diminished. He compared the way bright light bothers his eyes now to how it feels after a concussion. Milwaukee Buck Jrue Holiday needed three or four weeks to to restore conditioning after spending two weeks at home recovering. All players testing positive have extensive cardiac exams before being allowed to return to play.

On the global scale, concern is building about a new wave in Gaza. The only lab functioning there did 547 tests on Thursday and Friday, 202 of which were positive. Less than four percent of the populations is fully or partly vaccinated, compared with 60 percent in Israel. Complicating matters, Israeli bombing has damaged some hospitals and clinics. Remember when XPot said that the number of covid cases was so high only because we were doing more testing? Turkey has the fifth highest number of covid-19 cases in the world yet just stepped down from a three-week-long "full" lockdown. The health minister said that the case numbers had dropped by 72 percent, a drop doctors say was statistically impossible. The docs suggest that the large drop instead showed a "huge reduction" in testing. I guess XPot may have been right all along.

Rhode Island has become the eighth state to administer at least one coronavirus shot to 70 percent of its adult population, joining Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Vermont. Vaccinations in the Northeast lead the country while those in the South lag. Vaccinations are also lagging in many US prisons, jails, and detention centers. Nationally, 61 percent of people over the age of 18 have gotten at least one dose of vaccine. That percent goes down to 40 for federal prisoners. Fifty percent of inmates in state prisons have gotten at least one dose, while the percent drops to 20 for immigrants in detention centers. 

Over 400 colleges and universities are now requiring vaccines of students returning in the fall. Only eight percent of those institutions are in states that voted for XPot. The number grew Friday when Indiana University and its satellite campuses became rare outliers in a red state. Indiana has the highest number of schools requiring vaccines, 14, of any red state. There are 15 states in which no single college or university has a vaccine requirement. These include Oklahoma, Nebraska, Kansas, Mississippi, and Alabama.

And so it goes...

The View from the Hermitage, Day 433

We're having some fully vaccinated friends over for dinner tonight, the first non-family types to cross the threshold since February or March 2020. We have had a couple of other friends out on the porch, but this time--gasp--we'll be indoors. This is a short post since I need to get helping The Professor on some of the cleaning up and putting away. 

Virginia now has the sixth lowest covid infection rate in the US. The number of cases has been cut nearly in half over the past two weeks. The seven-day case average was 422 Friday. The last time the average was that low was April 2020. The state is now giving thought to incentives that might draw the vaccine-hesitant in. They've ruled out lotteries. I think it would be nice if they included some chance for those of us who got vaccinated early to win something. Why reward waiting?

From this morning's news quickies: NONUPLETS: Nine premature newborns that a 25-year-old Malian woman gave birth to are being closely monitored in a Moroccan clinic, with medical staff working around the clock to stabilize their health. Halima Cisse gave birth to the nonuplets--five girls and four boys--this month in Morocco.

I feel for her. I really do.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 432

The average daily rate of US vaccinations is down almost 50 percent from the April peak. The lowest per capita vaccine rates can be found in Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas, Wyoming, Idaho, Georgia, and Tennessee. That the states named are on the list does not surprise me; I would have predicted most of them if asked. Concern is growing now that summer could bring clusters of new outbreaks. New York and Maryland are joining Ohio in holding vaccine lotteries as incentives for vaccinations. The vaccination rate in Ohio has gone up since the lottery incentive was added, so I expect it will work elsewhere as well. And getting vaccinated may help people get dates; several dating apps have added a vaccinated badge to profiles. The White House thinks this is a good idea, by the way, though what goes up on a profile is there on an honor system.

Remember how yoga in Alabama schools might turn kids into Hindus? Yoga has now been approved and Alabama conservatives are not at all happy. They did manage to get the use of the words "namaste" and "om" banned. I can only smile and shake my head slowly in response to this last note. Will the words by themselves turn kids into Hindus?

India now has recorded over 26 million cases. The daily numbers have gone down slightly, though. It seems that covid in India now comes with an increased chance of getting mucormycosis otherwise known as "black fungus." This is a rare, fatal infection. Over 7,200 people in India have been reported as having it, and 219 have died. The increased risk of contracting the condition could be due to an overuse of steroids to treat the covid. Diabetes may also play a role; India has the second highest rate of diabetes in the world. So far, five Indian states have declared epidemics of mucormycosis, and more are expected to follow.

The International Olympic Committee vice president in charge of preparations has said that the Olympics will go on even if Tokyo is under a state of emergency noting, "Provided that we can protect the Japanese public, the most important thing is giving athletes a chance to compete." Could someone explain to me, please, how bringing in thousands of people from all around the world will not endanger the Japanese public?

WHO says that covid deaths could be double or triple the "official" reported numbers. The current official number is 3.4 million, while WHO says it could be six to eight million from the virus or related causes. WHO estimates that the 1.8 official death reports from 2020 could really have been three million. Just another thing about the novel coronavirus that we will never know for sure.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 431

Did you ever think that business would be the most trusted institution in the world? Guess what! It now is. Trust in business rose during the pandemic when it became apparent that governments would not develop and distribute vaccines alone. Trust in government is at an all-time low globally based on polling in 14 countries. People said business outperformed government on every issue measured: covid, job creation, health care, education, disinformation, climate, and addressing systemic inequalities. Some 80 percent of employees expect their companies to act on issues such as vaccine hesitancy, climate change, automation, misinformation, and racism. 

Booster vaccine shots could be on the way. The Pfizer CEO says the data he has seen suggest a booster be given somewhere between eight and 12 months after the first two shots. The Modern CEO suggests boosters in September starting with people at the highest risk. 

Looking at weekly covid numbers, Mississippi and the District of Columbia were the only state units showing covid increases between 10 and 50 percent. Covid in Nebraska was decreasing by more than 50 percent. All other states were steady or showing decreases between 10 and 50 percent. The US averaged about 30,000 cases daily over the past week. Dr. Fauci previously said that restrictions could be safely relaxed when the average cases hit 10,000 daily. For once should we hope that Dr. Fauci was at least a little in error?

A not-yet-peer-reviewed study suggests that the school reopening plan in Texas may have contributed to thousands of covid cases and hundreds of deaths. Estimated cases and deaths in the two months following school reopening are 43,000 cases and 800 deaths. The virus was said to be running rampany in Texas at the time. It is also not clear whether schools used proper mitigation strategies consistently. 

A new hot spot is rising in Argentina. In early March, the daily case count was about 5,000; this week, it is 35,000. Besides relaxed restrictions, the country has a low vaccination rate. Contributing to the increases is the presence of both the Brazilian and British variants. Deaths at the start of March averaged 112 daily; Tuesday there were 744 deaths. Argentina is now third in daily cases behind India and Brazil and forth in deaths after India, Brazil, and the US. Relative to population, Argentina now has the highest number of covid deaths per day in the world with 16.46 deaths per million on Tuesday. Brazil reported 11.82 deaths per million. Some experts are predicting a total catastrophe within 10 days.

The local university has announced that covid vaccinations will be required for students and faculty for the coming fall with information submitted to the university by July 1. They are also studying which jobs that have been being done remotely need to move back to the physical campus. Domestic and international travel will once again be permitted with come conditions. Back to normal come fall? Probably not totally, and it's not clear how long it will last. We can always hope.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 430

Starting with something positive, US coronavirus numbers are the lowest they have been in almost one year. Case numbers are down in all 50 states. Maryland's seven-day positivity rate is at its lowest level ever. California recorded just three deaths Tuesday, the lowest daily total since the pandemic began. It can't hurt that 48 percent of the US population has gotten at least one shot of vaccine, and 37.5 percent are fully vaccinated. It is looking more likely that a vaccine booster shot will be needed within the next year, but studies are still ongoing. 

The worldwide situation is not as positive as the US one. India just set a new record in deaths in one day, recording 4,529. The record broken was set in the US in January. Malaysia just recorded a new daily high in terms of new cases: 6,075. 

To date, over 1,500,017,337 doses of vaccine have been given in 210 countries or territories. Three-fifths of those have been given in just three countries: China, 421.9 million; the US, 274.4 million; and India, 184.4 million. China was experiencing some vaccine hesitancy until there was a fresh covid scare, leading to 100 million vaccinations in just nine days. One in every four doses distributed throughout Australia is sitting unused in clinics prompting calls for a "major campaign" against vaccine hesitancy. Meanwhile, Canada is on the verge of catching up to the US in terms of first doses given, but only four percent of the eligible population is fully vaccinated.

A backlash is rising in Australia against the possibility that the country may not fully open up until mid-2022. Australia currently has some of the strictest international travel restrictions in the world, possibly the main reason for their success in fighting covid. The travel restrictions have left many Australians "stranded" in other countries and unable to get home due to limits on the numbers of flights as well as the quarantine required of people entering the country, even citizens. The number of citizens allowed to travel outside the country is also limited. On the flip side, Tunisia has ended a one-week lockdown despite having the highest reported deaths per capita of any African country. 

Taiwan has raised its alert level to three. There is no lockdown, but masks are required to be worn outside of the home. Gatherings are limited to five indoors and ten outdoors. Public venues, sporting venues, and entertainment and recreation venues are closed. Shops and restaurants remain open with social distancing and customer registrations required. Level four restrictions would come after 14 consecutive days of over 100 cases and 50 percent of unknown origin. 

In Olympic news, Canada's most decorated show jumper has announced that he will not compete at the Tokyo Games. Besides being a cancer survivor, he notes that Canada will not be sending a full show-jumping team. In bordering-on-the-bizarre news, authorities in Belgium were looking for a heavily armed soldier with links to extreme right-wing groups and who had made threats against a virologist who backed the covid lockdowns.

Finally, The New York Times broke vaccine hesitancy down according to underlying reason. The numbers for Virginia came close to mirroring the national ones. Both Virginia and the nation had eight percent in the "watchful" category, waiting to see what happens. The numbers for cost-anxious (this includes the time getting the vaccine would take) were seven percent for Virginia and nine percent nationally. The numbers for distrusting the "system" were lower than I might have thought: three percent for Virginia and four percent nationally. At the extreme were the "covid skeptics" who do not believe there is a threat: 13 percent for Virginia and 14 percent nationally.

It's back to early voting tomorrow, my only day this week. I have learned that one of the election officials with whom I'll be working on June 8 is among the vaccine resistant. I'll be keeping my mask on all day and hoping to eat outside away from said person. 

The View from the Hermitage, Day 429

The weather is always a safe subject, so let's start there. That by no means signifies that this post will be at all unsafe; it just jumped to mind as an opening line. I keep the weather app on my iPhone set for five places: where I live (Charlottesville, Virginia), where my brother lives (Bangor, Maine), where my brother-in-law lives (Tisdale, Saskatchewan), where Son #2 and DiL= live (Richmond, Virginia), and where their cabin is (Ruther Glen, Virginia). Imagine my surprise last night when, looking for what our overnight low temperature would be, I discovered that it was in the 80sF in Tisdale, Saskatchewan. It's 88F there now even as I type this. But don't get used to it too much, Tisdalians. There's a 50 percent chance of snow on Friday.

The CDC's new mask guidelines rely on an honor system. The local university has a very famous one that often does not work as intended. The mayor of Kansas City, Missouri says that the honor system isn't working there either. Localities can, however, keep local mask mandates even in the wake of a state's stopping theirs. Maryland has ended its statewide mask mandate, but Baltimore City is keeping their local one in place until at least 65 percent of the adult residents have gotten at least one shot of vaccine. As Dr. Fauci clarifies it, the guidance is "not a mandate to take masks off."

POTUS is taking a bit of heat over whether the donation of 80 million doses of vaccine to developing countries is enough. Some 11 billion doses will be needed to vaccinate 70 percent of the global population, but so far only 1.7 billion have been produced. If booster shots are needed, 11 billion won't be enough. Covax will soon finish delivering 65 million doses but should have delivered at least 170 million by now. The fact that the US has a glut of vaccine along with the problem of convincing vaccine-hesitant or -resistant people to get it is not seen in our favor. There are some who argue that along with donating doses of vaccine, the US needs to work on a plan to scale up production world-wide. The US cannot produce those 11 billion doses on its own. 

Storing some of that vaccine got a boost easier. The Pfizer vaccine has been through to require a storage temperature between -70 and -80C until a "few days" before use. For those few days, it can be stored in a standard medical refrigerator. The European Medicines Agency now says that the Pfizer vaccine can be stored in a standard medical refrigerator for five days to one month, at a temperature of 2 to 8C. This makes it much more practical to use is a wider variety of settings. 

The local paper used to have a sports columnist who would often start a section of his column with "Scatter-shooting around the ACC..." Well, scatter-shooting around the world, India just set a new record for deaths in one day, 4,329. Germany has put the residents of two tower blocks in Western Germany in quarantine after discovery of the Indian variant there. In the first week of April, Nepal was counting fewer than 200 covid-19 cases daily. The daily averages for the past week are 183 deaths and 8,600 new cases. European countries are continuing to reopen at various paces, but the growing presence of the Indian variant in the UK could throw a monkey wrench into those plans. Finally, Japanese opposition to the Olympics is now at 83 percent. A top medical group, the Tokyo Medical Practitioners Association, also wants the Games cancelled.

I may have to start adding a political thread or two. I almost miss the absurdity of the XPot days. The news is certainly not as entertaining as it was in the fall. I don't think I want to get back to discussing the January 6 Capitol insurrection. Discussing the Party of XPot's treatment of Liz Cheney might double my blood pressure medicine, though I am seeing my doc for a physical next week. Matt Gaetz? That does get pretty bizarre, and the mainstream media so far has stayed away from the possibility that the young Cuban-American man living with Gaetz might be his son from a relationship with an underage young woman. I think I'll give that topic some thought. 

The View from the Hermitage, Day 428

Another take on the fully-vaccinated-then-no-mask deal at the family level. If all members of the family or household are fully vaccinated, you "can comfortably resume pre-pandemic activities." There are certain situations, however, in which you should still wear a mask. Almost vaccinated means that there is at least one person who is not yet fully vaccinated. In this case, masks should be worn indoors or in close conversation. Discretionary trips to indoor spaces should be avoided. For families with children young enough not to be eligible yet, it's a risk assessment situation. If you feel you have had no exposure that could be transmitted to the unvaccinated, a mask may not be needed. Finally, the great unwashed, er, unvaccinated can be divided into the 15 percent who say they need more info before being vaccinated, the 6 percent who say they will get vaccinated only if required to do so by a job or other entity, and the 13 percent who say they will never get vaccinated no way no how. Those people make up 34 percent of the 40 percent currently unvaccinated. 

It appears that people who wish to remain masked are becoming targets of public ire similar to the negative reception that some unmasked people got during the past year. Some mask-wearers plan to continue wearing masks for the next year or even longer. They've come to be called perma-maskers, and many say that having had covid or seen a family member or friend with covid makes them feel vulnerable when un-masked. Apart from infection, some women say they enjoy not having to wear makeup that would be hidden by a mask, praising how masks have simplified their lives.  

All but one of the 36 Indian states have imposed coronavirus restrictions. Experts advise a 10- to 15-day "pause" in activities, something the central government is resisting. There is actually some question about the whereabouts of the Indian central government, though. The General Secretary of India's national student union has filed a missing person's complaint against Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In line with this, Outlook magazine's cover announces "Missing. Name: Government of India. Age: 7 Years."

National surges in Southeast Asia continue. Taiwan has begun limiting the size of gatherings in Taipei. In 2020, with a national population of 24 million people, Taiwan reported under 1,000 cases, zero leaks from quarantine, and a death toll of 12. They passed 253 days without one single local case. Now is a different story. Local case numbers for the last four days went from 29 on Friday to 180 on Saturday to 206 on Sunday to 333 on Monday. Part of the surge came about due to flight crews from China Airlines staying in an airport hotel offering both quarantining and Taiwanese flight enthusiasts there as part of a promotion. Three recent mass travel events also contributed to the surge: Mother's Day, a weekend of high school entrance exams, and university students moving home when remote learning replaced in-person learning. Malaysia just reported its highest daily death toll, 45. They have the third highest number of infections in Southeast Asia after Indonesia and the Philippines. Finally, Singapore is cancelling the "bubble" they were about to make with Hong Kong as of May 26. The bubble was originally set to begin in November 2020 but was suspended then due to a surge in Hong Kong. 

POTUS has announced that the US will send 20 million doses of vaccine to "countries struggling against the pandemic." These doses of Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson will be in addition to the 60 million doses of AstraZeneca that will be donated once that vaccine is cleared by the FDA. In a throwback to the America First XPot days, POTUS said that the 80 million doses from the US would be the most from any country, by five times. America First lives on!

In terms of the racial disparities in covid identification and treatment, Dr, Fauci, speaking virtually at Emory University's graduation, noted that "Covid-19 has shone a bright light on our society's failings." He continued, "...the undeniable effects of racism" have worsened the pandemic for minorities. Correcting these societal wrongs will not come easy but will likely take decades.

And going back to Asia, the percentage of Japanese opposed to hosting the Olympics is up to 80, less than 10 weeks before the Games are scheduled to start. I'm having trouble wrapping my head around the idea that the Japanese government really wants the Games to go on. 

The View from the Hermitage, Day 427

Another Sunday, another week. I'm up to 61 of those weeks now. News of the pandemic becomes more sparse, especially on the domestic front. The CDC continues to clarify its guidance on mask-wearing. They've specified that schools should continue to use masks for the rest of the 2020-21 school year. Not every 12- to 15-year old who is going to be vaccinated will have been vaccinated by then. It's likely that kids under 12 won't get a shot at a shot until fall at the earliest. The nurses' union, meanwhile, has come out against the latest mask guidance. They're still on the front lines of the pandemic, after all. 

The CDC said its mask decision was based on two factors, the first being that vaccinated people don't transmit the virus should they get a breakthrough infection. Second, the shots are (so far) effective against the existing variants. The CDC is so sure on the first factor that they will stop monitoring breakthrough infections among people who've been vaccinated unless they lead to hospitalization or death. 

Remember Italy's troubles in the pandemic's opening days? The Italian daily death toll just fell below 100 for the first time since October. This week, there were 93 deaths, down from 139 a week ago. There were 5,753 new cases, down from 8,289. Western Europe seems to be heading down the same road as the US. Meanwhile in India, there are now bodies buried in shallow sand graves along riverbanks to go along with the bodies floating in the water. The cost of cremations has tripled. 

The WHO has reported that the second year of the pandemic will be deadlier than the first. Since February 29, 2020, there have been over 163 million cases reported and over 3,375,000 deaths. How the (or a) third year might look, no one is saying. One article I read this morning said it is likely that Australia will keep tight travel restrictions in place "well into 2022." Planning for a third year now will likely yield better outcomes than waiting until the last minute might.

WHO is urging wealthy countries to rethink plans to vaccinate children and instead send vaccines to poorer countries. I don't think that argument will gain much support here since the rate of vaccination is a big factor in getting masks off of faces. Plus, more vaccine may be needed for adults here. The Pfizer CEO has said that a third shot is likely. The head of Germany's independent vaccine advisory panel says it's likely all German citizens will need another vaccination next year.

There was more pandemic news, but much of it went into more detail than I was willing to try to summarize. It's the weekend after all. I hope you've had a good one.

 

The View from the Hermitage, Day 426

The split screen of the coronavirus continues. Some countries are doing just fine and possibly dandy while others are going down the tubes. The CDC tells us that masks are no longer needed by those fully vaccinated against covid-19, with case, hospitalization, and even death numbers going in the right direction. Canada is planning its own gradual reopening. Restrictions are being lifted in the UK. On May 25, Russia will restart air travel with Iceland, Malta, Mexico, Portugal, and Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, the conditions in India and Brazil are no better. India is fueling covid spread in South Asia, while Brazil is fueling covid spread in Latin America. Vietnam has seen a steady rise in cases since April. Japan is broadening the area under a state of emergency.  

The CDC's latest advice on mask-wearing--that fully vaccinated people don't need to--is causing its own split screen. Some states are modifying their mask mandates to match the CDC's suggestions, while localities within those states may want to continue to require masks. At the level of individual businesses, Walmart and Sam's Club, Costco, Publix, Starbucks, Trader Joe's, Hershey Park, Universal Studios, and some sites in the Disney universe will no longer require masks. Target and CVS lead the way in saying that they will continue to require patrons to wear masks. Personally, I plan to continue to wear a mask when out in public. If someone wants to assume I have not been vaccinated, that's on them. If someone challenges my mask-wearing even though I have been vaccinated, I will point out that my wearing a mask protects them more than it protects me. 

Before the CDC updated its mask guidance, there was a survey of 723 epidemiologists on when and how they think the US can return to some sense of normality. There was general agreement that the pandemic will not be over until children as well as adults can be vaccinated. When asked when they think we will be very or somewhat likely to be able to do certain things, 85 percent thought we will be able to gather outdoors on July 4. In terms of the fall, 86 percent think schools will reopen fully.  And 90 percent think we will be able to gather indoors for the winter holidays. They spoke to the importance of vaccinations when asked which measurement they feel in most important in helping determine the resumption of pre-pandemic activities. Fifty-nine percent cited vaccination rates compared to the 24 percent citing the number of new cases per day. Seven percent cited the number of hospitalizations, while only one percent cited the number of deaths per day. "Something else" was the choice of nine percent. 

The epidemiologists were also asked which one thing they most feared could stall progress in ending the pandemic. Again, vaccinations jumped to the front with 38 percent citing vaccine hesitancy as the factor that could most delay exiting the pandemic. New variants was the factor cited by 24 percent, while 22 percent cited the politicization of public health. Eleven percent cited returning to pre-pandemic behaviors too soon, while four percent chose "something else." Over 80 percent of the epidemiologists said that people should continue to wear masks when indoors with strangers or outdoors with crowds for and least another year. And there are pre-pandemic behaviors we should never return to. University of Nevada, Las Vegas epidemiologist Brian Labus noted, "I cannot believe that we used to celebrate birthdays by eating a cake that someone has blown all over."

Only 0.3 percent of vaccine doses given globally have been to the 29 poorest countries, home to nine percent of the world's population. While 11 billions shots will be needed to vaccinate 70 percent of the world's population, only 1.7 billion have been manufactured so far. There are examples of vaccine goodwill, though. Lithuania is sharing the vaccines it has with its Eastern European neighbors including Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova. As might be expected given the size of the respective outbreaks, neither India nor Brazil is vaccinating quickly enough. A population health and geography professor at Harvard noted that "every even in India is a super-spreader event." That's hard to argue with. 

On the Mt. Everest front, China has cancelled Everest climbs from Tibet, citing the danger of covid brought to the summit by climbers from Nepal. Some companies, though, are cancelling their climbs from Nepal. An Austrian company is pulling out saying that some teams had been partying together at base camp, ignoring basic precautions. Nepal's tourism department said the situation at base camp was not that severe, but what else would you expect a tourism department to say?

I found two four-leaf clovers this morning, only the second time I have found any. Now to see if I'm twice as lucky.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 425

Some states and businesses are reconsidering their mask policies in the light of the CDC guidelines announced yesterday. Questions do remain about special needs of people with compromised immune systems or who have unvaccinated children. Remember that the CDC guidance applies to fully vaccinated people. So why did I today come across several reports of breakthrough cases of covid in fully vaccinated people. Eight members of the New York Yankees MLB franchise have tested positive for covid. All had been vaccinated with the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. There was one Yankee who not only had been vaccinated but also had survived a case of covid before he got vaccinated. And if you read the above and thought that the issue might be with the Johnson & Johnson vaccine being less effective than the mRNA vaccines, Singapore is announcing new restrictions after vaccinated airport workers became infected. Of the 28 infected workers, 19 had been fully vaccinated with either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine. 

The Tokyo Summer Olympic Games remain scheduled for July despite a doctors' union in Japan urging cancellation. This one may be going down to the wire, especially if the IOC President continues to decline visiting. 

It appears that just over one fourth of adults in the European Union are "unlikely" to get vaccinated. Slightly more of these are men than women, and the rate is higher in eastern European countries. Bulgaria appears to be the most resistant with 61 percent of adults saying they are very or rather unlikely to get vaccinated. France and Austria have the highest resistance rate in western Europe, with just over one third of adults in each expressing resistance. Those aged 35 to 49 are slightly more likely to express reluctance, along with people who are unemployed and have a long-term illness or disability. Full-time homemakers are also more hesitant. It is probably not surprising to learn that 40 percent of people who use social media as their primary news source are vaccine hesitant compare to 18 percent of people using more mainstream news sources. Vaccine hesitancy aside, the EU hopes to have 70 percent of people inoculated by the end of July. To date, 29.5 percent of the 450 million inhabitants have gotten at least one dose of vaccine. 

Denmark has started excavating decomposing mink bodies after issues arose with the possible pollution of drinking water. The excavated bodies will be incinerated. The minks were killed en masse in response to a concern that they had a variant form of covid that might be transmitted to humans. 

Interesting thought on pandemics from Joel Achenbach: they "start quickly and end slowly." Some people here in the US see the new guidance on masks as evidence that the pandemic is over, at least here. I don't buy it. The pandemic is not going to end in one country as opposed to another. That might have been possible in the days of sailing ships as the principal means of getting from one land mass to another, but I don't see it as possible today, unless we are willing to lock the doors at the border and keep them locked.

Here's a thought for the upcoming school year. Three quarters of people ages 18 to 29 say that vaccinations should be a requirement for campus or work in the fall, and 37 percent say they would refuse to go back in the fall if vaccinations are not required. 

The View from the Hermitage, Day 424

Eid Mubarak! I don't know if any of my Muslim friends read this blog, but I'm thinking of them. I have no idea what the month of Ramadan feels like, mentally or physically. I do know, though, what a celebration Eid brings.

I didn't get too many notes taken this afternoon, so I'm not sure how long this post will be. The view here at home in the US is rosy. All 50 states are holding steady or declining in terms of the number of new cases. New cases declined last week in 37 states. Deaths are at their lowest level since July, around 600 per day. Hospitalization rates are also falling. Probably at least in part due to this, the CDC announced that fully vaccinated people no longer need to wear masks or physically distance, indoors or out, under most circumstances, even in crowds. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky took that a step further, and this is the part I have the largest problem with. She said, "If you are fully vaccinated, you are protected, and you can start doing the things that you stopped doing because of the pandemic." We're back to where we were two years ago? Really? I'm not sure I'm okay with that statement. The pandemic is dead; long live whatever the opposite of "pandemic" is? Will the vaccine-hesitant or vaccine-resistant folks respond appropriately to the "if you are fully vaccinated" condition? My bet is that they won't, and given there is still much to learn about how long vaccine-induced immunity lasts, how the vaccines handle the existing--and future--variants, I'm not sure I want to risk my life on people who don't seem to give a rat's ass about others. 

Moving right along before I let the wine do more pontificating, travel is becoming more popular. The top 10 domestic locations right now are New York, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Dallas, Miami, Chicago, Charleston, Denver, San Francisco, and Phoenix. The top international destinations are Sydney, Melbourne, London, Dubai, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Paris. I have one friend I would love to visit here in the Continental 48. I might be willing to consider that domestic trip, but all those large cities? They don't seem worth my perceived risk. International will be out for much longer. There's just too much uncertainty about what might happen there. 

The Professor has taken two short trips to Mumbai, India, and has no desire to return. India is not a place I have any special desire to visit, especially now. Two states and the territory of Delhi have suspended vaccinations for people ages 18 to 44 due to a shortage of vaccine. The daily new case and death numbers are not declining. It's going to be quite a while before they can start doing the things they stopped doing because of the pandemic, if they ever really can.

The situation in Papua New Guinea is interesting. The prime minister just got the first dose of vaccine given in the entire country, noting that he was the "guinea pig" and if he died, no one else needed to get vaccinated. Evidently, there are so many conspiracy theories running rampant even encouraged by doctors. Some 62 percent of Facebook posts about vaccines in the region make unsubstantiated claims including that the vaccine will help the government track personal data, is counter to the foundations of Christianity, and will negatively impact female fertility. That vaccine doses might expire before they can be given is a nontrivial concern there. It is worth noting that the prime minister's two brothers got vaccinated along with him noting that "a Papua New Guinean will stand by his brother, if it means to die with his brother, he will." That's family for you.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 423

I really had to work to find interesting coronavirus news on the sites I visit daily. At least the number of pages for today in my now fourth paper journal seemed smaller than usual. I saw my mom today for the first time in about 14 months. She looked good. Her once-grey hair is now almost totally white. It looks good on her. I've always said that I hope my blonde hair turns white instead of grey. After seeing Mom, I was scheduled to work another afternoon of early voting. When I showed up along with the woman who is chief at my precinct, there were seven people set to work, which is about two too many given the small number of early voters coming right now. Since neither of us is working early voting for the money (there is at least one person doing so), we saved the county our afternoon pay and split. 

In terms of the Pfizer vaccine being approved for kids between the ages of 12 and 15, almost one fourth of new covid cases right now are in kids. That seems a pretty good argument for getting going on those immunizations. Several leaders here in Virginia are calling for school-based clinics to give the Pfizer shots. They will have to hurry, though, if they want to give the second shot before the end of the school year. One argument for school-based clinics is that requiring a permission slip from parents would relieve parents from taking their children somewhere to be vaccinated outside of school hours. When Son #2 was transitioning from elementary to middle school, the Health Department came to the school to give some required vaccination. I don't remember which one, though, and since I passed his immunization record on to him, I can't look at that to see. 

Covid deaths in the US are at their lowest level in 10 months. The number of deaths in some states has dropped into single digits more than once. Some states have even reported no deaths on several days. I hope that trend continues. I know that the warmer weather is getting more people outside more often, and that certainly helps, though the crowds at sporting events and graduations may paint a different picture. Fingers crossed that things such as cases and deaths continue to decline. 

India, on the other hand, is not seeing any real improvement. At least 90 more bodies were found washed up in a river used by rural residents for drinking and cooking. The 4,205 deaths Tuesday was a new record; the death toll has now climbed over 250,000. More than 860 medical personnel have died, 116 of them in less than one month. The Indian "variant of global concern" has now been identified in almost 50 countries worldwide. 

The WHO has released a report on the pandemic that they commissioned from an independent panel. Surprise, but the pandemic was preventable, with "weak links at every point in the chain." Preparation was inconsistent and underfunded, and the WHO was underpowered, making "global political leadership ... absent." The initial reports coming out of China in December 2019 should have been heeded. The lack of strong initial leadership made February 2020 "lost" in terms of the pandemic's progression. Looking ahead, the report recommends that high-income countries with enough vaccines ordered for their own needs should commit to providing at least one billion doses to Covax by September 1. The G7 should provide 60 percent of the $19 billion needed for vaccines, therapeutics, tests, and strengthening health systems. The remaining 40 percent should come from the G20 and other high-income countries. 

And the word on my computer from hell is, well, that it is behaving like a computer from hell in terms of the shop's being able to get everything backed up. On that cheery note, I do think I'll go fold laundry.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 422

An up-and-down day. Up in terms of getting what was supposed to be a June 1 appointment about the arthritis in my right thumb moved to this afternoon. The injection was done with help from a real-time x-ray, which I could see along with the physician assistant. There is definitely no gap between the bone at the base of my thumb and the bone in the body of my hand, but the PA said it was not the worst she's seen. It was interesting when, as part of the injection, she pulled on the thumb to create a gap between the two bones. I made it almost two years between cortisone injections in some part of my body. I had the more recent one in June 2019, into my right wrist. 

A second up is that the three-year warranty on Twiggy, my newest laptop, doesn't run out until September. As for the down, I took Twiggy to a local computer shop last Monday to see about the camera that wasn't working. The camera was apparently the tip of the iceberg. I was still there when they were checking the camera and other things started going haywire. They're now trying to clone the system and copy all the "data" so that I can contact the vendor (Lenovo) and send it in. They folks here say it does not seem at all repairable, and I should expect to get a new computer in return. That's why they're trying to clone the system, so that I won't have to rebuild things from the ground up. I thank the deities for the cloud storage in which I'd backed up pretty much everything stored on the laptop itself.

As for the covid front, the FDA has said that the Pfizer vaccine is okay to give to kids between 12 and 15 years old. There's an up and down to that news as well. The up is that the kids in that age range who get vaccinated will count toward that mythical goal of herd immunity. The down is that parents are currently split evenly on whether they will let their kids be vaccinated. There are some 17 million kids in that age range, and the medical folks note that a "different level of sensitivity" will be needed when dealing with their parents. State, counties, and school districts are already working on plans to offer vaccines at schools as well as at pediatricians' offices, day camps, parks, and beaches. The hope with pediatricians' offices is that the docs there are experienced at discussing vaccination issues with parents as well as with making vaccinations as pain-free as possible. In terms of schools, the issue is that the end of the school year is imminent. One was around this might be what Columbus, Ohio is planning--a mobile vaccination unit similar to an ice cream truck.

Erie County, New York, home to Buffalo, is offering a similar inducement for adults. The "shot and a chaser" promotion offers a free beer mug plus a coupon for a free beer when someone over 21 gets a Moderna shot. A second free beer comes with the second shot.

Yesterday, I noted that the Prime Minister of Japan was passing the question of whether to stage the Olympics off to the President of the International Olympic Committee. That would be the same IOC President who has cancelled a planned visit to Tokyo due to the coronavirus surge in progress there. It's potentially too dangerous for him but not for thousands of athletes, coaches, support personnel, media, and Japanese volunteers needed to stage the Games? Go figure. 

The effects of the covid situation in India will impact the global economy. Indian ships and waterways are critical for worldwide supply chains. India also normally produces over 60 percent of all vaccines globally but is now only dealing with domestic needs. (And I can't blame them for that, not even one little bit.) While covid cases in Delhi and Mumbai may be levelling off, rural areas are being hit even harder. Nearly 200 patients have died recently due to a lack of oxygen. Families are also being hit hard by cremation costs' rising from $27 to around $200, too much for most rural families. Besides India, cases and deaths are rising throughout the region, including Cambodia, Malaysia, and Thailand. Neplay is so short of oxygen cannisters that it's asking Everest climbers to bring back the empties they usually discard en route. About 3,500 cannisters have been used so far.

An Axios survey done May 7 to 10 asked whether proof of covid vaccination should be required for certain events. Here are the results for "yes" responses.

     International air travel                    64%

     Domestic air travel                         63

     Vacation (hotel, resort, cruise)       61

     Sporting event                                57

     Salons, barbers, spas                      49

     Indoor restaurant dining                 49

     Non-grocery retail                          44

For the first time since the start of the pandemic, fewer than half of Americans (43 percent) saw returning to "normal" pre-pandemic lives as risky. It was not clear if the going out to eat was indoors or out, but 54  percent of Americans say they have gone out to eat. Finally, Democrats are still much more likely than Republicans to say that they're wearing masks. 

The View from the Hermitage, Day 421

Yesterday, I mentioned the pandemic around the world being like something watched on a split screen. The vaccination picture here in the US is starting to seem like that, too. I read in one source that over half of US adults have gotten at least one dose of vaccine, and this is good. In another source I read that only 34 percent of the US population is fully vaccinated, and this is not good. It's not clear to me if we're winning or losing. The seven-day average number of new cases in the US has decreased by about 80 percent since the January 2021 peak, and that definitely is good. 

More and more experts are saying it is unlikely the US will ever achieve the herd immunity once touted as the end-all and be-all. We could end up with regional herd immunity, during which communities or states could impose short-term restrictions accordingly. I do not see that ending well. Someone doesn't want to wear a mask in a restaurant, so they do a quick road trip 40 or 50 miles to another city that does not have such a mask mandate. Right now, the vaccination rollout is in a race against the covid variants. Can enough people be vaccinated that variants have fewer opportunities to develop? If not, the covid rate could go back up again. In the immediate future, summer may contribute to a situational herd immunity because of increased ultraviolet light, but we all know from Game of Thrones that winter is coming. 

The situation in India remains much the same, not at all good. The WHO has classified the Indian B.1.617 variant a "variant of global concern." Dozens of bodies are now washing up on the banks of the Ganges River. They are believed to be bodies of covid victims for whom there was no crematory space. US physicians and healthcare workers have created a Doctors in Diaspora group to connect with healthcare providers and patients in India. More and more Indian medical experts are condemning the Indian government's response and calling for nationwide restrictions. Some estimates point to India's suffering more than one million deaths by August; the current death toll is approaching 250,000. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington has a model that suggests the real death toll is currently at 642,000. And frequent talking head Dr. Ashish K. Jha, dean of Brown University's School of Public Health says it is likely that between two and five million people are infected every day and that the "true" daily death toll is closer to 25,000. He says these calculations are based on the number of cremations taking place. 

The situation in India continues to spill over to its neighbors. Cases in Nepal are up by 1,200 percent over the past several weeks, and the percent positivity remains at 47. The shortage of oxygen has reached critical levels. Oxygen manufacturers claim they told the government a month ago that shortages were imminent if a second covid wave started, but the government took no action. China, meanwhile, is setting up a "separation line" on the summit of Mt. Everest to prevent or at least slow the spread of infection from climbers summiting from Nepal. 

Coronavirus continues to surge in Japan. Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga says that it is up to the International Olympic Committee whether to hold or cancel the Tokyo Games in July. In Romania, vaccinations are being offered at Bran Castle, said to be the inspiration for Count Dracula. Along with a vaccination comes a free trip to the "torture chamber." One young woman in Tuscany got more vaccinated than she bargained for and was mistakenly immunized with a whole vial of the Pfizer vaccine, that is, six regular doses. She was kept under medical supervision for 24 hours and will be followed up regularly. She reported a headache and fatigue but noted that she was "still alive."

Continuing the to mask or not to mask debate, Dr. Fauci suggests that people used to wearing masks now may opt to wear them during seasonal spikes in viruses such as influenza. The flu count has been well under normal this year, in large part due to the mitigation measures imposed due to covid. Masks do get a lot of support in some settings, though. Retail workers say they no longer have to keep a neutral face when dealing with unfriendly customers. Masks are also great for people with social anxiety. A Los Angeles screenwriter says a mask gives "emotional freedom" and that "it's almost like taking away the male gaze. There's freedom in taking that power back."

The US Social Security Administration has released its 2020 list of the most popular baby names. There isn't much change from 2019. The top 10 male names, in descending order, are Liam, Noah, Oliver, Elijah, William, James, Benjamin, Lucas, Henry, and Alexander. For females, the top 10 are Olivia, Emma, Ava, Charlotte, Sophia, Amelia, Isabella, Mia, Evelyn, and Harper. You can see the popularity of your or anyone else's name at https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/. The Professor, The Sons, and my DiL= all have names that rated to some extent in the last 20 years. My name? "Jean is not in the top 1,000 names for any year of birth beginning with 2000." I can take that in two ways, and for now choose the way that makes me more of a unique individual.

Fallout from the work-from-home nature of the coronavirus has revealed some interesting migration changes for software and IT workers. The following areas are gaining such workers: Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, Houston, Dallas-Ft. Worth, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Atlanta, and Denver. The following areas are losing them: Chicago; Austin; Washington, DC-Baltimore; Boston; Seattle; New York City; and the San Francisco Bay Area. Being able to work remotely does have the benefit of meaning one can work from wherever one wants to live.  

 

The View from the Hermitage, Day 420

Sixty weeks in means things are getting better in some places and going to hell in a handbasket in others. I'm  a bit more optimistic than I was a while back. We may not be totally fucked, but I don't think we'll ever get back to the pre-pandemic normal. For example, to mask or not to mask? That is a question. The CDC now says that fully vaccinated people do not need to wear a mask outdoors. But how do I know if the person who just passed me on the street while sneezing was even partially vaccinated? No, we will not be wearing badges or pins or some external notice of our vaccination statuses. Masks are strongly connected to one's political affiliation. Democrats are twice as likely to say they always wear masks when the leave their house than are Republicans. In mid-April, 74 percent of fully vaccinated respondents said that they always wear masks outside their homes; this is now down to 63 percent.

I haven't done serious martial arts since my first shoulder repair in 2014 but have recently started going to an informal karate and kendo outdoor workout in a local park. The people there whose vaccination status I know are all fully vaccinated yet almost all wear masks. The one person who puts on a mask only when a 13-year-old participant is there is an emergency room nurse. Perhaps wearing a mask all day every workday makes her want to not wear one whenever she can. I would think, though, that she of all people would take even more care with such a basic mitigation measure. Fully vaccinated or not, I would not want to be doing some kind of workout, even outside, unmasked. I wonder how long it might take that feeling to pass. 

Some states are declining the vaccine doses the federal government has allotted for them. Nationally, covid immunizations are down by 20 percent from the previous week. Even Dr. Fauci has abandoned what he calls "this mystical level of herd immunity." Wisconsin wanted only eight percent of their vaccine allotment for the coming week. Kansas and Illinois wanted only nine percent of theirs. One fourth of the adults in Wyoming will "definitely not" or "probably not" get vaccinated. Twenty percent of adults in Montana, North Dakota, Kentucky, and Ohio said the same thing. States are getting creative in how they persuade people to get vaccinated. West Virginia has been offering $100 savings bonds to people between 16 and 35. I do like Detroit's inducement, something I'm calling the bounty hunter model. People get $50 for every city resident they sign up and then deliver for a shot. I can see all sorts of things happening with this. One friend signs up another, and they split the $50. Of course, if one of those people would not otherwise have gotten vaccinated, they the system works. 

India accounted for nearly half of global infections and one fourth of global deaths reported in the last week. Dr. Fauci is calling on vaccine manufacturers to scale up production to get more doses to India. I do not expect that vaccine hesitancy will be a problem there. 

This has not been a long post, but it is, after all, Mother's Day. As I've been writing this, I've been answering assorted questions from The Professor as he works on the cake he insisted on making as dessert for the chicken dish he put together yesterday and will cook tonight, in about an hour. Son #1 will join us for dinner. We may regale each other with tales from motherhood as I have lived it. Being asked by one of Son #2's high school teachers what I did to him. Driving the same Son from Wyoming to here through what the Weather Channel called Winter Storm Q when I was, hands down, the biggest driving-in-snow weenie in the family. I got the 2013 Mother of the Year Award for that one, given to me on Mother's Day 2014. There was also the year The Sons made me the possum gun. 

Being a mother, at least to those two knuckleheads, has been one hell of a trip. 

The View from the Hermitage, Day 419

The pandemic is becoming something like a program shown on a split screen. Infections and deaths are falling in the world's richest nations while rising in the poorest. WHO says there were more cases reported in the last two weeks than in the entire first six months of the pandemic, with South Asia being hit the hardest. I wonder if Africa will be next. For comparison, here's the percent rise in new cases over seven weeks.

105%     Nepal

  82        Sri Lanka

  69        Maldives

  32        Costa Rica

  26        Honduras

  15        Malaysia

  11        Egypt

  10        India 

 -10        US

 -12        UK

 -12        Argentina

 -16        Italy

 -27        France

 -32        Australia

 -51        Israel

Argentina is a bit of an odd duck in that despite the fact that cases are falling, the country still registered 26,320 new cases on May 6.

The campaign to vaccinate the world continues but is not going well. The virus is spreading more rapidly than ever, and the longer it spreads, the more chances it will have to mutate. India is no longer providing vaccines to Covax; it is having trouble making enough for its own use. More scientists now say that the goal should not be herd immunity but to make the novel coronavirus more like its relatives that cause the common cold. Initial common cold infections give partial immunity so that subsequent infections become milder. This seems a more reachable goal than herd immunity.

On Saturday, India set another new record, this one for the 4,187 deaths reported. The founder of a volunteer organization that runs cremation grounds in eastern New Delhi said that they used to get six to eight bodies each day. Now, they are getting around 100 each day. By 8:30 one morning, he had already gotten 22 calls about picking up bodies. 

Cases from India continue to spill over to neighboring countries. Nepal reported over 9,100 cases Friday compared to a daily average of fewer than 100 only one month ago. Ascents of Mt. Everest have begun in earnest after 12 Sherpa guides finished affixing rope to the summit. In the process the team's leader, Kami Rita Sherpa, set a record for the most times summitting Everest--25.

New York City wants to park vaccination vans at tourist sites such as Times Square, the Statue of Liberty, and the Brooklyn Bridge with the aim of vaccinating tourists who did not get vaccinated at home before traveling to New York City. Mayor Bill de Blasio tweeted, "New York City is open for business, one shot at a time." For those not seeking vaccination  because of a fear of needles, the following advice has been offered: (1) Seek professional help. Note: This covers matters other than a fear of needles. (2) Tell whoever is giving the vaccination about your fear before you get the shot. They may be able to reassure you and will hopefully also make it as painless as possible. (3) Distract yourself. Got some music on your phone, or a soothing video? Think of the cruise you'll be able to take. (4) Focus on the benefits. Overcoming your fear benefits not just yourself, not just your family, but everyone. You've read it here before but no one is safe until everyone is safe.

Finally, want, as do several families I can think of, to get back to cruising? If you're on a Norwegian Cruise Lines voyage, you may not be sailing out of Florida. Norwegian wants to require that all passengers and crew members be fully vaccinated, and Florida will prohibit businesses from requiring that patrons be vaccinated. Don't let that fear of needles keep you off the water!

The View from the Hermitage, Day 418

I always though, as you may have as well, that the pandemic case and death tolls were underestimates. But on what scale? A new analysis by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation suggests the true covid-19 death toll could be double the official count. Some countries only count deaths that take place in hospitals or in patients with confirmed cases. Some countries have a narrow definition or what they count as a covid-19 case. The IHME analysis suggests that the global death toll should be 6.9 million. Here's their "total" deaths versus reported deaths for the 10 countries leading the pack in terms of numbers of deaths. 

                           Total Deaths           Reported Deaths

 1. US                    905,289                    574,043

 2. India                 645,396                    221,181

 3. Mexico             617,217                    217,694

 4. Brazil               595,903                    408,680

 5. Russia             593,610                    109,334

 6. UK                   209,661                    150,519

 7. Italy                 175,832                    121,257

 8. Iran                  174,127                    72, 906

 9. Egypt               170,041                    13,529

10. South Africa   160,452                     54,390

We'll never really know how many people died from the now-not-so-novel coronavirus. We never really knew how many people died from the influenza pandemic a century ago. Looking at the numbers above, I wonder how much effect the larger numbers vs. the smaller ones would have on how we perceive the seriousness of the pandemic. Would people have viewed the mitigation measures more positively if presented with the numbers in the first column vs. the second?

India continues to rack up records, reporting 414,188 new cases on Friday. Brazil has now seen over 15 million total cases; in response, the government has ordered an extra 100 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine. Any prediction of the difference those doses might make should take into consideration what is happening in the Seychelles. It's the world's most vaccinated country, with more than 60 percent of the population fully vaccinated. It currently has its largest number of coronavirus cases per capita and is reinstating some of its earlier restrictions such as school closures and limited hours for shops and restaurants. It's seeing just over 100 new cases daily in a country with a total population under 100,000. 

Looking at a group of 1,068 active cases, about 65 percent were residents who were either completely unvaccinated or who had gotten only one dose. The Seychelles used both Sinopharm and the AstraZeneca vaccine, which appear to be less effective against symptomatic covid-19. The WHO estimated the efficacy of the Sinopharm vaccine at just over 78 percent for adults under 60, while US trials suggest 79 percent efficacy for the AstraZeneca vaccine. There is one more factor to consider: Increases came after tourists began to return beginning on March 15, with no quarantines nor vaccinations required, just a negative PCR test less than 72 hours before travel. (You know how I feel about tests--negative today does not mean tomorrow won't be positive.) Only 10 percent of the positive cases were found to be among tourists, though.

Some sources are saying that about 185 million Americans could be fully vaccinated by September, some 88 percent of the adult population. (I do not know how the researchers handled the vaccine-hesitant and vaccine-resistant.) It is not clear, though, if 88 percent will be enough and in time to fight predicted winter surges as variants become more prominent.

Other interesting but non-coronavirus-related snippets include that Wyoming, which produces 40 percent of the coal used nationally, is preparing to sue states that opt to power themselves with clean energy rather than Wyoming coal. A woman in California moved to a certain area for the "wealth of wildlife" there and now is dealing with 15 condors sitting around her house and deck doing what comes naturally to birds. There are only about 160 condors in California, so no harmful action can be taken to scare them away. And across the Pacific, a petition with the title "Cancel the Tokyo Olympics to protect our lives" gathered 200,000 signatures in two days. 

The View from the Hermitage, Day 417

Are we there yet? Covid-19 cases in the US are at the lowest levels in seven months. Death and serious illnesses are also down. Granted, there are still states in which cases are increasing. Montana, Wyoming, New Mexico, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Hawaii are showing increases of 10 to 50 percent; all other states are holding steady or showing decreases. It may not help that many parents have said that they will not let their children be vaccinated. 

To our north, Alberta has the worst covid rate in North America with an active case rate of 534 per 100,000, more than double the national average and one of the worst in the world. Outdoor gatherings are limited to 10 people. The premier says the reason they are at such a critical stage is because too many people were ignoring the restrictions in place. Unfortunately, many residents still believe the virus is a hoax or a government conspiracy. Some hospitals have plans in place to ration care if needed. Joe Vipond, an emergency room doctor in Calgary, describes the current situation: "The science was clear from the beginning. If we didn't aim for 'covid zero' and if we started to relax our restrictions in the face of variants, this is where we would end up. It was always a fool's errand to try and vaccinate our way out of a third wave. It's just not mathematically possible ... no system in the world ... can out-expand the exponential growth of covid. Are we in trouble? Absolutely."

The situation in Nepal is worsening. Cases are skyrocketing to the extent that experts fear an outbreak similar to the one in India. The highest daily case toll yet was just recorded, 9,070. Perhaps more ominous, the positivity is 47 percent. In India, vaccinations are declining as cases continue to increase. Thursday, 410,000 cases were recorded in one 24-hour period. There were 3,980 deaths, the highest recorded in any country except the US. As I've noted before, experts say that the actual totals of cases and deaths are much higher. 

On the vaccine front, a study coming out of Israel showed that one shot of the Pfizer vaccine offered 58 percent protection against infection; 76 percent, against hospitalization; and 77 percent, against death. Two shots offered 95 percent protection against all three. In other words, two shots are way. way better than one. 

The International Olympic Committee will collaborate with Pfizer to get Olympic athletes vaccinated without jumping any priority queues in their home countries. There will be strict rules for those athletes at the Games. They will be tested regularly and not allowed to visit restaurants or bars. Athletes can arrive in Japan no earlier that five days before the Games, and must leave within two days of competing. I wonder what attendance at the closing ceremonies will be when most of the athletes may have already left. If they can come five days before the Games and not five days before they compete, then there will at least be a full house for the opening ceremonies.

As cities and states move toward reopening, so are some businesses. Google has announced that all employees can continue to work remotely until September. They will then be given three options. They can return to their pre-pandemic office and revert to their pre-pandemic schedule. They can relocate to a Google office in a different city. Finally, they can work from anywhere if their role allows it. 

Finally, on the early voting front, six people came in to vote this afternoon. Had we had one more, we would have tied the number of voters in the morning.