The View from the Hermitage, Day 430

Starting with something positive, US coronavirus numbers are the lowest they have been in almost one year. Case numbers are down in all 50 states. Maryland's seven-day positivity rate is at its lowest level ever. California recorded just three deaths Tuesday, the lowest daily total since the pandemic began. It can't hurt that 48 percent of the US population has gotten at least one shot of vaccine, and 37.5 percent are fully vaccinated. It is looking more likely that a vaccine booster shot will be needed within the next year, but studies are still ongoing. 

The worldwide situation is not as positive as the US one. India just set a new record in deaths in one day, recording 4,529. The record broken was set in the US in January. Malaysia just recorded a new daily high in terms of new cases: 6,075. 

To date, over 1,500,017,337 doses of vaccine have been given in 210 countries or territories. Three-fifths of those have been given in just three countries: China, 421.9 million; the US, 274.4 million; and India, 184.4 million. China was experiencing some vaccine hesitancy until there was a fresh covid scare, leading to 100 million vaccinations in just nine days. One in every four doses distributed throughout Australia is sitting unused in clinics prompting calls for a "major campaign" against vaccine hesitancy. Meanwhile, Canada is on the verge of catching up to the US in terms of first doses given, but only four percent of the eligible population is fully vaccinated.

A backlash is rising in Australia against the possibility that the country may not fully open up until mid-2022. Australia currently has some of the strictest international travel restrictions in the world, possibly the main reason for their success in fighting covid. The travel restrictions have left many Australians "stranded" in other countries and unable to get home due to limits on the numbers of flights as well as the quarantine required of people entering the country, even citizens. The number of citizens allowed to travel outside the country is also limited. On the flip side, Tunisia has ended a one-week lockdown despite having the highest reported deaths per capita of any African country. 

Taiwan has raised its alert level to three. There is no lockdown, but masks are required to be worn outside of the home. Gatherings are limited to five indoors and ten outdoors. Public venues, sporting venues, and entertainment and recreation venues are closed. Shops and restaurants remain open with social distancing and customer registrations required. Level four restrictions would come after 14 consecutive days of over 100 cases and 50 percent of unknown origin. 

In Olympic news, Canada's most decorated show jumper has announced that he will not compete at the Tokyo Games. Besides being a cancer survivor, he notes that Canada will not be sending a full show-jumping team. In bordering-on-the-bizarre news, authorities in Belgium were looking for a heavily armed soldier with links to extreme right-wing groups and who had made threats against a virologist who backed the covid lockdowns.

Finally, The New York Times broke vaccine hesitancy down according to underlying reason. The numbers for Virginia came close to mirroring the national ones. Both Virginia and the nation had eight percent in the "watchful" category, waiting to see what happens. The numbers for cost-anxious (this includes the time getting the vaccine would take) were seven percent for Virginia and nine percent nationally. The numbers for distrusting the "system" were lower than I might have thought: three percent for Virginia and four percent nationally. At the extreme were the "covid skeptics" who do not believe there is a threat: 13 percent for Virginia and 14 percent nationally.

It's back to early voting tomorrow, my only day this week. I have learned that one of the election officials with whom I'll be working on June 8 is among the vaccine resistant. I'll be keeping my mask on all day and hoping to eat outside away from said person. 

The View from the Hermitage, Day 425

Some states and businesses are reconsidering their mask policies in the light of the CDC guidelines announced yesterday. Questions do remain about special needs of people with compromised immune systems or who have unvaccinated children. Remember that the CDC guidance applies to fully vaccinated people. So why did I today come across several reports of breakthrough cases of covid in fully vaccinated people. Eight members of the New York Yankees MLB franchise have tested positive for covid. All had been vaccinated with the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. There was one Yankee who not only had been vaccinated but also had survived a case of covid before he got vaccinated. And if you read the above and thought that the issue might be with the Johnson & Johnson vaccine being less effective than the mRNA vaccines, Singapore is announcing new restrictions after vaccinated airport workers became infected. Of the 28 infected workers, 19 had been fully vaccinated with either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine. 

The Tokyo Summer Olympic Games remain scheduled for July despite a doctors' union in Japan urging cancellation. This one may be going down to the wire, especially if the IOC President continues to decline visiting. 

It appears that just over one fourth of adults in the European Union are "unlikely" to get vaccinated. Slightly more of these are men than women, and the rate is higher in eastern European countries. Bulgaria appears to be the most resistant with 61 percent of adults saying they are very or rather unlikely to get vaccinated. France and Austria have the highest resistance rate in western Europe, with just over one third of adults in each expressing resistance. Those aged 35 to 49 are slightly more likely to express reluctance, along with people who are unemployed and have a long-term illness or disability. Full-time homemakers are also more hesitant. It is probably not surprising to learn that 40 percent of people who use social media as their primary news source are vaccine hesitant compare to 18 percent of people using more mainstream news sources. Vaccine hesitancy aside, the EU hopes to have 70 percent of people inoculated by the end of July. To date, 29.5 percent of the 450 million inhabitants have gotten at least one dose of vaccine. 

Denmark has started excavating decomposing mink bodies after issues arose with the possible pollution of drinking water. The excavated bodies will be incinerated. The minks were killed en masse in response to a concern that they had a variant form of covid that might be transmitted to humans. 

Interesting thought on pandemics from Joel Achenbach: they "start quickly and end slowly." Some people here in the US see the new guidance on masks as evidence that the pandemic is over, at least here. I don't buy it. The pandemic is not going to end in one country as opposed to another. That might have been possible in the days of sailing ships as the principal means of getting from one land mass to another, but I don't see it as possible today, unless we are willing to lock the doors at the border and keep them locked.

Here's a thought for the upcoming school year. Three quarters of people ages 18 to 29 say that vaccinations should be a requirement for campus or work in the fall, and 37 percent say they would refuse to go back in the fall if vaccinations are not required.