The View from the Hermitage, Day 418

I always though, as you may have as well, that the pandemic case and death tolls were underestimates. But on what scale? A new analysis by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation suggests the true covid-19 death toll could be double the official count. Some countries only count deaths that take place in hospitals or in patients with confirmed cases. Some countries have a narrow definition or what they count as a covid-19 case. The IHME analysis suggests that the global death toll should be 6.9 million. Here's their "total" deaths versus reported deaths for the 10 countries leading the pack in terms of numbers of deaths. 

                           Total Deaths           Reported Deaths

 1. US                    905,289                    574,043

 2. India                 645,396                    221,181

 3. Mexico             617,217                    217,694

 4. Brazil               595,903                    408,680

 5. Russia             593,610                    109,334

 6. UK                   209,661                    150,519

 7. Italy                 175,832                    121,257

 8. Iran                  174,127                    72, 906

 9. Egypt               170,041                    13,529

10. South Africa   160,452                     54,390

We'll never really know how many people died from the now-not-so-novel coronavirus. We never really knew how many people died from the influenza pandemic a century ago. Looking at the numbers above, I wonder how much effect the larger numbers vs. the smaller ones would have on how we perceive the seriousness of the pandemic. Would people have viewed the mitigation measures more positively if presented with the numbers in the first column vs. the second?

India continues to rack up records, reporting 414,188 new cases on Friday. Brazil has now seen over 15 million total cases; in response, the government has ordered an extra 100 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine. Any prediction of the difference those doses might make should take into consideration what is happening in the Seychelles. It's the world's most vaccinated country, with more than 60 percent of the population fully vaccinated. It currently has its largest number of coronavirus cases per capita and is reinstating some of its earlier restrictions such as school closures and limited hours for shops and restaurants. It's seeing just over 100 new cases daily in a country with a total population under 100,000. 

Looking at a group of 1,068 active cases, about 65 percent were residents who were either completely unvaccinated or who had gotten only one dose. The Seychelles used both Sinopharm and the AstraZeneca vaccine, which appear to be less effective against symptomatic covid-19. The WHO estimated the efficacy of the Sinopharm vaccine at just over 78 percent for adults under 60, while US trials suggest 79 percent efficacy for the AstraZeneca vaccine. There is one more factor to consider: Increases came after tourists began to return beginning on March 15, with no quarantines nor vaccinations required, just a negative PCR test less than 72 hours before travel. (You know how I feel about tests--negative today does not mean tomorrow won't be positive.) Only 10 percent of the positive cases were found to be among tourists, though.

Some sources are saying that about 185 million Americans could be fully vaccinated by September, some 88 percent of the adult population. (I do not know how the researchers handled the vaccine-hesitant and vaccine-resistant.) It is not clear, though, if 88 percent will be enough and in time to fight predicted winter surges as variants become more prominent.

Other interesting but non-coronavirus-related snippets include that Wyoming, which produces 40 percent of the coal used nationally, is preparing to sue states that opt to power themselves with clean energy rather than Wyoming coal. A woman in California moved to a certain area for the "wealth of wildlife" there and now is dealing with 15 condors sitting around her house and deck doing what comes naturally to birds. There are only about 160 condors in California, so no harmful action can be taken to scare them away. And across the Pacific, a petition with the title "Cancel the Tokyo Olympics to protect our lives" gathered 200,000 signatures in two days.