The View from the Hermitage, Day 426

The split screen of the coronavirus continues. Some countries are doing just fine and possibly dandy while others are going down the tubes. The CDC tells us that masks are no longer needed by those fully vaccinated against covid-19, with case, hospitalization, and even death numbers going in the right direction. Canada is planning its own gradual reopening. Restrictions are being lifted in the UK. On May 25, Russia will restart air travel with Iceland, Malta, Mexico, Portugal, and Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, the conditions in India and Brazil are no better. India is fueling covid spread in South Asia, while Brazil is fueling covid spread in Latin America. Vietnam has seen a steady rise in cases since April. Japan is broadening the area under a state of emergency.  

The CDC's latest advice on mask-wearing--that fully vaccinated people don't need to--is causing its own split screen. Some states are modifying their mask mandates to match the CDC's suggestions, while localities within those states may want to continue to require masks. At the level of individual businesses, Walmart and Sam's Club, Costco, Publix, Starbucks, Trader Joe's, Hershey Park, Universal Studios, and some sites in the Disney universe will no longer require masks. Target and CVS lead the way in saying that they will continue to require patrons to wear masks. Personally, I plan to continue to wear a mask when out in public. If someone wants to assume I have not been vaccinated, that's on them. If someone challenges my mask-wearing even though I have been vaccinated, I will point out that my wearing a mask protects them more than it protects me. 

Before the CDC updated its mask guidance, there was a survey of 723 epidemiologists on when and how they think the US can return to some sense of normality. There was general agreement that the pandemic will not be over until children as well as adults can be vaccinated. When asked when they think we will be very or somewhat likely to be able to do certain things, 85 percent thought we will be able to gather outdoors on July 4. In terms of the fall, 86 percent think schools will reopen fully.  And 90 percent think we will be able to gather indoors for the winter holidays. They spoke to the importance of vaccinations when asked which measurement they feel in most important in helping determine the resumption of pre-pandemic activities. Fifty-nine percent cited vaccination rates compared to the 24 percent citing the number of new cases per day. Seven percent cited the number of hospitalizations, while only one percent cited the number of deaths per day. "Something else" was the choice of nine percent. 

The epidemiologists were also asked which one thing they most feared could stall progress in ending the pandemic. Again, vaccinations jumped to the front with 38 percent citing vaccine hesitancy as the factor that could most delay exiting the pandemic. New variants was the factor cited by 24 percent, while 22 percent cited the politicization of public health. Eleven percent cited returning to pre-pandemic behaviors too soon, while four percent chose "something else." Over 80 percent of the epidemiologists said that people should continue to wear masks when indoors with strangers or outdoors with crowds for and least another year. And there are pre-pandemic behaviors we should never return to. University of Nevada, Las Vegas epidemiologist Brian Labus noted, "I cannot believe that we used to celebrate birthdays by eating a cake that someone has blown all over."

Only 0.3 percent of vaccine doses given globally have been to the 29 poorest countries, home to nine percent of the world's population. While 11 billions shots will be needed to vaccinate 70 percent of the world's population, only 1.7 billion have been manufactured so far. There are examples of vaccine goodwill, though. Lithuania is sharing the vaccines it has with its Eastern European neighbors including Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova. As might be expected given the size of the respective outbreaks, neither India nor Brazil is vaccinating quickly enough. A population health and geography professor at Harvard noted that "every even in India is a super-spreader event." That's hard to argue with. 

On the Mt. Everest front, China has cancelled Everest climbs from Tibet, citing the danger of covid brought to the summit by climbers from Nepal. Some companies, though, are cancelling their climbs from Nepal. An Austrian company is pulling out saying that some teams had been partying together at base camp, ignoring basic precautions. Nepal's tourism department said the situation at base camp was not that severe, but what else would you expect a tourism department to say?

I found two four-leaf clovers this morning, only the second time I have found any. Now to see if I'm twice as lucky.