Thursday, May 6, 2021

The View from the Hermitage, Day 417

Are we there yet? Covid-19 cases in the US are at the lowest levels in seven months. Death and serious illnesses are also down. Granted, there are still states in which cases are increasing. Montana, Wyoming, New Mexico, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Hawaii are showing increases of 10 to 50 percent; all other states are holding steady or showing decreases. It may not help that many parents have said that they will not let their children be vaccinated. 

To our north, Alberta has the worst covid rate in North America with an active case rate of 534 per 100,000, more than double the national average and one of the worst in the world. Outdoor gatherings are limited to 10 people. The premier says the reason they are at such a critical stage is because too many people were ignoring the restrictions in place. Unfortunately, many residents still believe the virus is a hoax or a government conspiracy. Some hospitals have plans in place to ration care if needed. Joe Vipond, an emergency room doctor in Calgary, describes the current situation: "The science was clear from the beginning. If we didn't aim for 'covid zero' and if we started to relax our restrictions in the face of variants, this is where we would end up. It was always a fool's errand to try and vaccinate our way out of a third wave. It's just not mathematically possible ... no system in the world ... can out-expand the exponential growth of covid. Are we in trouble? Absolutely."

The situation in Nepal is worsening. Cases are skyrocketing to the extent that experts fear an outbreak similar to the one in India. The highest daily case toll yet was just recorded, 9,070. Perhaps more ominous, the positivity is 47 percent. In India, vaccinations are declining as cases continue to increase. Thursday, 410,000 cases were recorded in one 24-hour period. There were 3,980 deaths, the highest recorded in any country except the US. As I've noted before, experts say that the actual totals of cases and deaths are much higher. 

On the vaccine front, a study coming out of Israel showed that one shot of the Pfizer vaccine offered 58 percent protection against infection; 76 percent, against hospitalization; and 77 percent, against death. Two shots offered 95 percent protection against all three. In other words, two shots are way. way better than one. 

The International Olympic Committee will collaborate with Pfizer to get Olympic athletes vaccinated without jumping any priority queues in their home countries. There will be strict rules for those athletes at the Games. They will be tested regularly and not allowed to visit restaurants or bars. Athletes can arrive in Japan no earlier that five days before the Games, and must leave within two days of competing. I wonder what attendance at the closing ceremonies will be when most of the athletes may have already left. If they can come five days before the Games and not five days before they compete, then there will at least be a full house for the opening ceremonies.

As cities and states move toward reopening, so are some businesses. Google has announced that all employees can continue to work remotely until September. They will then be given three options. They can return to their pre-pandemic office and revert to their pre-pandemic schedule. They can relocate to a Google office in a different city. Finally, they can work from anywhere if their role allows it. 

Finally, on the early voting front, six people came in to vote this afternoon. Had we had one more, we would have tied the number of voters in the morning.

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