The View from the Hermitage, Day 442

It's Memorial Day, and because I always encouraged my kids to find out things they asked me about, I found an answer to a question I had. Is the aim of Memorial Day to honor soldiers (I use "soldiers" in the broadest sense, to include sailors, Marines, pilots, etc.) who died in battle or to honor all deceased veterans? That question is not the correct one. "In battle" is too narrow a term, and "all deceased veterans" is too wide. The references I found mentioned remembering and honoring military personnel who died "while on duty" or "in the performance of their military duties." So the soldier did not have to die in battle, just while serving. 

Over 400 US colleges and universities have a fall vaccination mandate. At some schools, it applies to all students; at others, such as the University of Michigan, it only applies to students who will be living in dormitories. The American College Health Association recommended the mandates, which make sense from a public health perspective. A study undergoing peer review reported that reopening campuses last fall led to a rise in local infection rates in surrounding counties. Over half of the schools with student mandates are not requiring faculty and staff to be vaccinated. Employees have more rights than students; there are also legal challenges for employees that do not apply to students. There are states, including Texas and Florida, in which the governor has explicitly outlawed vaccination mandates. 

Continuing the Olympic Games saga, it seems that Japanese may be allowed to attend events if they have proof of vaccination or a negative covid test. A final decision will be made next month. As for the more than three quarters of the population that want the Games cancelled, Olympic officials predict that opposition to the Games will melt away as the July 23 opening nears.

The declining case rates in the US may be unrealistically optimistic for the unvaccinated half of the population. Adjusting for vaccinations, the case rate among unvaccinated people is 73 percent higher than the standard figures being publicized. The death rate among unvaccinated people is as high as the overall death rate was two months ago; the hospitalization rate is as high as three months ago. The current national case rate for unvaccinated residents is similar to the case rate for all residents on December 31, 2020. Covid is spreading as fast among unvaccinated people as it did during the winter surge. Maine, Colorado, Rhode Island, and Washington all have covid spikes among unvaccinated people that are about double the adjusted national rate. Data for Washington show that unvaccinated seniors are 11 times as likely to be hospitalized as seniors who got vaccinated. For people ages 45 to 64, the hospitalization rate for unvaccinated people is 18 times higher. 

It's Monday of the long weekend, so travelers are likely on their way home. In the fall, travel over a long weekend led to predictions and anxiety over the size of the surge to follow. Whether we see one after this long weekend may be a good indicator of the extent to which we can believe the pundits who report that we're on our way out of the coronavirus forest.