The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 342 (842)

Covid was the third leading cause of death in the US in 2020 and 2021, accounting for one of every eight lives lost. Heart disease topped the list followed by cancer. I wonder what 2022's list will look like.

Here's another reason to get vaccinated. A study is out claiming that long covid was less likely to occur in healthcare workers who'd gotten two or three mRNA shots compared with unvaccinated workers. The prevalence of long covid was 41.8 percent for unvaccinated workers, 27.4 percent for workers who had gotten two doses of vaccine, and 16 percent for workers who had gotten three. A physician at Washington University in St. Louis who was not involved in the study notes, "Everyone is at risk. The more optimal strategy is to avoid infection or reinfection in the first place." He says that studying long covid "should be a national priority."

An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research-SCAN Foundation survey conducted in mid-May reported 12 percent of 1,001 respondents as saying their lives were the same as they'd been before the pandemic. Another 54 percent reported their lives as being somewhat the same, while 34 percent said their lives were not the same as before. Fifty-one percent of the respondents said they considered vaccines as essential for them. Related to vaccination, 39 percent felt that things won't go back to the way they were until nearly all people are vaccinated. (Yeah, that's gonna take a while.) Half viewed the availability of effective treatments as essential for participating in public life. When it came to masks, 22 percent of respondents said that wearing masks in indoor public places was essential to going back to pre-pandemic life.

A study published Wednesday said that an experimental drug called sabizabulin developed to fight cancer cut the risk of death for patients hospitalized with covid. The company making the drug has applied for emergency use authorization. Some scientists have criticized the study for its small sample size: 134 patients who got the drug and 70 who got a placebo. Of the placebo patients, 45.1 percent died, compared to 20.2 percent of patients who received the drug, yielding a 55.2 percent reduction in the risk of death. 

About six percent of Bhutan's gross domestic product comes from tourism revenue. As the country reopens, that tourism is going to cost about twice as much. Before the pandemic, tourists had to be affiliated with a tour, with a fee of $250 per day covering accommodations, meals, guides, and a government tourism fee. Starting in September, the government fee will be $200 paid directly to the government and all other costs will be the responsibility of the tourist. The aim is to rebrand Bhutan as "an exclusive destination" for "discerning tourists."

The physician who gained noteriety pushing hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for covid died last week. No, he did not die of covid, but of lung cancer.

Finally, Dr. Fauci figures that covid is his last pandemic. The 81-year-old is said to still work more than 12 hours daily, seven days per week. In retirement, he plans to teach and to write a story of covid as well as a memoir of his early life. He also wants to encourage young people to enter civil service. I hope he lives long enough to enjoy his retirement; he certainly won't be idle.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 448

There was a thought-provoking article in The Washington Post's Outlook section this morning presenting evidence that the coronavirus did not originate man-made from the virology lab in Wuhan. You can read it at https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/virus-origins-nature-lab/2021/06/03/dd50eb62-c4a9-11eb-93f5-ee9558eecf4b_story.html. Son #1 reminded me, though, that the virus could be one being studied at the Wuhan Lab that was released accidentally. One point in the article is that the coronavirus had some flaws that would not have been there had it been engineered to do harm. I don't want to think about what the last 18 months would have been like had the virus been intentionally strengthened.

There is some question of how well the covid vaccines work for people with immune deficiencies. It's estimated that there are some six million people taking immuno-suppresants that could interfere with the vaccine. The results are mixed, though. One study, on patients taking certain drugs to treat ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease, showed "robust antibody responses" to both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. A second study, though, found that 46 percent of transplant recipients had no antibody responses after two doses of either vaccine. A third study concerned patients with conditions such as lupus, psoriasis, and inflammatory bowel disease treated with two types of drugs--glucocorticoids and B-cell depleting agents. Both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were impaired in terms of producing an immune response. Finally, two patients followed the Pfizer vaccine with the Johnson & Johnson one. One had a positive result as antibody levels rose; the other had no response. 

XPot spoke last night at a GOP convention in North Carolina and was introduced as "our president." As expected, his punching bag was Anthony Fauci. He called Dr. Fauci "not a great doctor but a great promoter" adding "but he's been wrong on almost every issue and he was wrong on Wuhan and the lab also." XPot also called on China to pay $10 trillion in reparations for having released the virus.

As the US begins to return to normality, hotels and concerts are selling out, rental cars and rental homes are being booked more often and for longer periods, and visits to museums and events are soaring. Also soaring are the prices of goods for which there is a shortage. At the same time, many restaurants and bars can't hire enough staff. Said the owner of a McDonald's franchise, "You've got a lot of people with a lot of money, and they're out there shopping. And then, on the flip side, we're scrambling for help." In terms of any full return to normality, a WHO official says that eradicating covid-19 is not a "reasonable target" and that people will have to learn how to live with it. "The virus isn't going away any time soon, there will be variants emerging."   

The covid numbers coming out of Italy continue to improve. On Saturday, there were 57 deaths, 2,436 new cases, 5,193 hospitalizations, and 788 people in the ICU. Sunday, there were 51 deaths, 2,274 new cases, 4,963 hospitalizations, and 774 people in the ICU. Numbers in India are also improving albeit slowly. India reported 114,460 new cases Sunday, the lowest in 60 days. The area around New Delhi, the capital, will ease restrictions starting Monday. At the same time, though, officials say they are preparing for a third wave.

Preparing for a third, or fourth, wave is not unreasonable, especially in Africa where only about three percent of 1.2 billion people have gotten even one dose of vaccine. WHO said last week that eight countries had seen cases surge 30 percent or more in the previous seven days. Normality will take longer than a lot of people think, because no one is safe until everyone is safe.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 424

Eid Mubarak! I don't know if any of my Muslim friends read this blog, but I'm thinking of them. I have no idea what the month of Ramadan feels like, mentally or physically. I do know, though, what a celebration Eid brings.

I didn't get too many notes taken this afternoon, so I'm not sure how long this post will be. The view here at home in the US is rosy. All 50 states are holding steady or declining in terms of the number of new cases. New cases declined last week in 37 states. Deaths are at their lowest level since July, around 600 per day. Hospitalization rates are also falling. Probably at least in part due to this, the CDC announced that fully vaccinated people no longer need to wear masks or physically distance, indoors or out, under most circumstances, even in crowds. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky took that a step further, and this is the part I have the largest problem with. She said, "If you are fully vaccinated, you are protected, and you can start doing the things that you stopped doing because of the pandemic." We're back to where we were two years ago? Really? I'm not sure I'm okay with that statement. The pandemic is dead; long live whatever the opposite of "pandemic" is? Will the vaccine-hesitant or vaccine-resistant folks respond appropriately to the "if you are fully vaccinated" condition? My bet is that they won't, and given there is still much to learn about how long vaccine-induced immunity lasts, how the vaccines handle the existing--and future--variants, I'm not sure I want to risk my life on people who don't seem to give a rat's ass about others. 

Moving right along before I let the wine do more pontificating, travel is becoming more popular. The top 10 domestic locations right now are New York, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Dallas, Miami, Chicago, Charleston, Denver, San Francisco, and Phoenix. The top international destinations are Sydney, Melbourne, London, Dubai, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Paris. I have one friend I would love to visit here in the Continental 48. I might be willing to consider that domestic trip, but all those large cities? They don't seem worth my perceived risk. International will be out for much longer. There's just too much uncertainty about what might happen there. 

The Professor has taken two short trips to Mumbai, India, and has no desire to return. India is not a place I have any special desire to visit, especially now. Two states and the territory of Delhi have suspended vaccinations for people ages 18 to 44 due to a shortage of vaccine. The daily new case and death numbers are not declining. It's going to be quite a while before they can start doing the things they stopped doing because of the pandemic, if they ever really can.

The situation in Papua New Guinea is interesting. The prime minister just got the first dose of vaccine given in the entire country, noting that he was the "guinea pig" and if he died, no one else needed to get vaccinated. Evidently, there are so many conspiracy theories running rampant even encouraged by doctors. Some 62 percent of Facebook posts about vaccines in the region make unsubstantiated claims including that the vaccine will help the government track personal data, is counter to the foundations of Christianity, and will negatively impact female fertility. That vaccine doses might expire before they can be given is a nontrivial concern there. It is worth noting that the prime minister's two brothers got vaccinated along with him noting that "a Papua New Guinean will stand by his brother, if it means to die with his brother, he will." That's family for you.