The View from the Hermitage, Day 145

It was somewhat shocking to see that there were 2,015 new covid-19 cases in Virginia reported yesterday. That was 400 more than the previous high of 1,615 on May 26. It turned out to be a reporting error; some cases that should have been reported on Wednesday and Thursday instead all got lumped in on Friday. Of course, spreading those cases out over three days instead of one doesn't change the seven-day rolling average of 1,142 new cases. The highest rolling average to date is 1,195, meaning that counts are not going in the "right" direction. As HWSNBN put it, "It is what it is."

Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore has announced that it is changing its in-person/virtual hybrid model for the first semester to a virtual only one. They are encouraging students with off-campus housing to stay at home and not come back to Baltimore at all. That makes sense on one level, but I would not want to pay several months of rent for an apartment I wasn't occupying. And if you manage to get out of the lease, what if classes are back in-person in the spring semester? There are no easy answers there, I guess. The university is also refunding 10 percent of the fall tuition students have paid. Part of me says that that's not enough of a refund, but then there are other universities that are not refunding anything. I don't think the local university would refund tuition, though they might refund some amounts for room and board.

The lead editorial in yesterday's Washington Post argued that we need to strengthen mitigation measures and stop talking about "going back to school" and other reopening strategies. It ended by noting that we could conceivably hit a year from now with no vaccine and the virus still running amok. If that happened, what would we, in the summer of 2021, wish we had done in the summer of 2020. Whatever we decide that might be, why aren't we doing it now? It's an interesting thought experiment. Of course, my first thought is that if HWSNBN is reelected, we may bottom out long before the summer.

I have seen the question raised online of whether HWSNBN will announce that a vaccine is ready in October 2020. An October surprise to help him wrap up another term? A large number of people say they will not take any vaccine that is developed, meaning that we likely won't progress to herd immunity. Personally, I would not get any vaccine touted by HWSNBN. I'd want the Anthony Fauci Seal of Approval on whatever vaccine I might take. My immediate thought of a vaccine that HWSNBN might put out there was to wonder if it could be a compound of hydroxychloroquine and bleach or hydroxychloroquine and Lysol disinfectant spray. 

The possibility of challenge trials may be increasing as a time-saving alternative or companion to the typical Phase 3 trial. Older son has volunteered to be a subject in such a trial. Were he to be selected, I would be maternally proud of him as well as scared as crap. There's a certain amount of risk in any sort of clinical trials, but that risk increases significantly for challenge trials. If they help get a successful vaccine more quickly, such trials might be worthwhile. Another decision I'm glad I don't have to make.

Yesterday's excitement was a late afternoon tornado warning. We were, as usual, ignoring it. Then the wind picked up in a strange way. I can't really say how it was strange, but it did not seem to be blowing as it usually does. The husband yelled from upstairs to get to the basement storeroom, the farthest away from any glass that might shatter or walls that might be ripped apart. I grabbed the family dog; the husband grabbed the family cat, and for the first time ever, we sheltered in place until the weather alert on my phone showed the coast as being cleared. There was no tornado near us, but other parts of the county did see some. There were plenty of downed trees across roads, not that we drove out to see any.

Another weekend looms. Today is the second anniversary of the family dog's Gotcha Day. The celebration proper will be tomorrow and will include a fresh marrow bone and some new toys from Outward Hound. May a good time be had by all.