The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 319 (819)

I'm ba-a-ack! I almost feel normal today. Unfortunately, the seven pounds of water weight I lost is probably going to be back before I know it. I at least felt up to going on a walk with the dog this morning., It wasn't a long walk given that it was raining, but what distance we did walk felt okay.

So, in the days before I went on sick leave, I reported something about the death rate from Covid now being higher for white Americans than for Black Americans. It really is as shown by plotting Covid deaths over time by race/ethnicity. That's all well and good until one considers Simpson's Paradox, something I don't remember learning anything about in the various stat classes I took. Simpson's Paradox concerns how "statistical association between two variables in a population emerges, disappears, and reverses when the population is divided into subpopulations." One very important risk factor not addressed in the comparison of death rate by subpopulations is age, the strongest known risk factor for dying of covid. White Americans are far more likely to outlive Black or Hispanic Americans, suggesting that age should be considered in addition to race/ethnicity.

The source I read worked with covid death data from 2022. These data are provisional due to the length of time it takes to process death certificates. Before adjusting for age, per capita covid deaths for white Americans were 43 per 100,000; for Black Americans, 37 per 100,000. In other words, the numbers support what was shown in the earlier plot. After adjusting for age, however, those per capita deaths became 31 per 100,000 for white Americans and 40 per 100,000 for Black Americans. The gap is narrowing, though, and deaths among white Americans have increased faster over the last three years. 

The CDC has added four countries to its Level 3 travel warning (over 100 deaths per 100,000 residents over the past 28 days): Guyana, Mongolia, Namibia, and St. Kitts and Nevis. Most European countries remain at Level 3. Two countries were moved from Level 3 to Level 2 (50-100 cases per 100,000 residents over the past 28 days). I haven't felt a desire to travel by air, though I'm warming to car travel as we did the past two summers. 

It's felt good to feel better today. I hope the improvement continues.