The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 309 (809)

A not-yet-peer-reviewed survey in New York City suggests that covid cases could be undercounted by a factor of 30. The authors suggest that undercounting could be even worse elsewhere given that New York likely has better access to testing than many other places. There may be a disadvantage to getting tested. A positive test can mean staying home from work or school. This presents something of a "don't ask. don't tell" situation. The survey also showed over half the covid patients did not know about Paxlovid. Those who did and who got it tended to be younger and with better access to resources, in other words, probably not the people who most needed it. 

Cases have surged in South Africa over recent months even as data showed 98 percent of the people had some antibodies from vaccination, infection, or both. The prevalent virus forms, BA.4 and BA.5, suggest that the virus is becoming better at reinfection.This means that outbreaks will keep happening or, in the words of an infectious disease specialist, "The virus will continue to evolve so that it can continue to spread in the population. It doesn't end. This virus is with us for the rest of time."

The virus appears to be losing ground in North Korea, though. There have been, officially, only 70 deaths. That makes the fatality rate 0.002 percent, the lowest in the world. Given that deaths peaked while cases were still rising, there may be a problem with the numbers. One reason may be that local officials are not reporting data so as to avoid punishment. WHO has tried multiple times to send vaccines and other assistance but no offers have been accepted. That imports from China doubled from March to April suggests assistance is coming from the Chinese. North Korea bought masks for the first time from January to April 2022. 

Cadaver-sniffing dogs, explosive-sniffing dogs, and now covid-sniffing dogs who may be able to detect covid more effectively than PCR tests. In one study, dogs detected 97 percent of the symptomatic cases and nearly 100 percent of the asymptomatic ones. It seems that while dogs are more sensitive to positive cases, PCR tests are better at detecting negative ones. In two of the dogs' false positives, the patient had another coronavirus respiratory illness. Finally, while PCR tests can take days to yield results, a dog can process 20 samples in 15 seconds. Has covid testing gone to the dogs?