The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 310 (810)

Vaccinations could be available for children under the age of five by June 21. Authorization by the FDA ratified by the CDC is needed but expected to be forthcoming. Given the tepid response to vaccinations for children ages five through 11, I expect that some parents may be reluctant to vaccinate their even-younger children. The White House coronavirus response coordinator says he expects the "vast majority" of children will be vaccinated. I'm not sure I agree with him. I think parents will be more cautious about having a baby or toddler vaccinated than an older kid. It may take something such as an upcoming vacation or event to convince people to take the plunge. 

WHO expects covid deaths in Africa to fall sharply in 2022. They're forecasting 23,000 deaths in 2022 compared with an estimated 350,000 in 2021. Since the start of the pandemic, Africa has had 11.9 million confirmed cases, a number some say was likely 70 times higher given how many cases were probably never confirmed. WHO expects there to be over 166 million new infections this year.

Not-yet-peer-reviewed research suggests 98 percent of South Africa's population has some antibodies. It is likely that 87 percent had an infection. Eleven percent have antibodies suggesting vaccination rather than infection. The country has still been hit hard in the latest wave, the one in response to BA.4 and BA.5.

Shanghai for the most part reopened on Wednesday. Some streets were reportedly fenced in again within one day after a positive case walked through the neighborhood. Routine testing is required. Residents must show a negative test result every 72 hours. I have trouble imagining how that will play out. It would be an impossible undertaking here. I'm not sure an American city with a population of 100,000 could do it, and the population of Shanghai is over 25 million.

Finally, the WHO director general notes, "The sudden appearance of monkeypox in many countries at the same time suggests there may have been undetected transmission for some time." The genetic pattern of the current strain suggests sustained human-to-human transmission since at least 2017. WHO puts the current global public health risk as moderate. It could become high, though, if the virus establishes itself as a human pathogen rather than an animal one that occasionally infects humans.