The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 246 (746)

The CIA director has joined the ranks of aides or officials who have met with POTUS right before testing positive for the coronavirus. As with the others, the director was not a close contact as defined by the CDC. Somehow I do not find that particularly encouraging. 

A top official in Shanghai has admitted that they were not "sufficiently prepared" for the Omicron surge, an admission not at all normal for China. It's not clear what the aftereffects of this admission might be. 

The website covid.gov mentioned yesterday has four formal goals: to protect against and treat covid; to prepare for new variants; to avoid future shutdowns; and to help fight the virus abroad.

Daily vaccinations--both first and boosters--are at the lowest level since early 2021 at the start of the vaccination program. Speaking of vaccines, Taiwan has confirmed its first death linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine, and will pay $209,000 in damages to the family. Can you imagine what the dollar amount would be here? Actually, it would likely take years to resolve the issue here.

One reason that Omicron may be so transmissible is that it has the highest environmental stability among variants of concern. The average survival time on skin for the original virus was 8.6 hours. Alpha and Beta were 19.6 and 19.1 hours, respectively. Delta was 16.8 hours, and Omicron tops them all at 21.1 hours. Even so, a 15-second exposure to an alcohol-based hand sanitizer completely inactivated all the covid variants.

Lots of little points today. I plead the distraction of an uncomfortably swollen knee. I have no real idea what's going on, but I have an appointment in orthopedics on Tuesday to see if they know. In the meantime, I'll try to time things better tomorrow

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 245 (745)

So the expensive covid tests I mentioned in an earlier post are PCR tests, not the rapid at-home type. But even those may not seem cheap once you use up the eight (so far) free ones from the federal government. The four I just got for free from the feds would be about $9.00 each from our friends at Amazon. If you want to test the whole family before going to visit someone, things can add up rapidly.

Fifty-five percent of new covid cases in the US last week were the BA.2 (sub)variant. This means that it is now the dominant variant both here and around the world. Who knows what's coming next. Some scientists on the northern edge of the US are looking into that in a somewhat nerve-wracking way. They're crawling into the dens of hibernating bears--with someone holding their feet for quick extraction assistance--and taking nasal swabs. They're also  getting samples from moose, deer, and wolves, all in the name of looking into human-to-animal-to-human transmission of the coronavirus. 

The CDC has given its permissive recommendation to second booster shots. POTUS got one this afternoon. It's far from clear how necessary they might be. I'm going to do a bit of research, I think, before deciding one way or the other. Were I to decide to get one, there is a new government tool to help me find where I could get one. The website https://www.covid.gov/ went live this morning. It's billed as "Find COVID-19 guidance for your community" and begins with the ability to check the covid level in your county. Next up is "Your COVID-19 Toolkit" with information on masks, vaccines, treatment, and testing. Since many testing and vaccines sites operated by government agencies are closing, it's nice to have a place to go for alternatives. 

With testing and vaccine sites becoming scarcer, is it ant wonder that Americans are taking fewer precautions? Now, 44 percent say they usually wear a mask outside their home; this is down from two-thirds.Two months ago, about half said that they avoided others as much as possible; that's down to one-third now. Only 40 percent, down from 60 percent in January, say that they still avoid nonessential travel. People aged 60 and older are the most likely to be still taking those precautions. Skipping precautions is partly due to pandemic fatigue and partly due to the CDC's lessening the importance of those precautions. 

Hong Kong is running low on coffins, and daily cremations have more than doubled. How bad things are is illustrated by the fact that over 90 percent of the covid cases since the pandemic began have been in the past 30 days. So much for zero-covid at least in the days of Omicron and friends. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 244 (744)

The first coronavirus article on which my eyes alighted this morning was a discussion of post-covid psychosis. As if I weren't nervous enough already about what covid might do to a person. Psychosis? Yep. People who recover from covid are more likely to be diagnosed with depression or anxiety following recovery and are more susceptible to sleep problems and substance abuse. That actually makes a lot of sense to me. However, some people suddenly develop symptoms such as hallucinations or violent delusions. The causes of covid-related psychosis are not at all clear; there is, though, increasing evidence that the roots of the psychosis are biological and not situational. It might be due to inflammation or blood clots in the brain, and very preliminary research suggests that the virus itself may directly enter the brain. Psychosis can be caused by infections; herpes simplex is one example. The evidence that covid can directly affect brain cells is, so far, very weak. Covid-related psychosis certainly merits more study given that most cases are in people with no previous mental health issues. In some cases, the psychosis seems to resolve without treatment. There are no signs it can lead to a more permanent mental health condition such as schizophrenia.

The FDA has approved a second booster. Next up is consideration by the CDC that is expected to result in the "permissive recommendation" mentioned yesterday. I am thinking about whether I should get one. I had my original booster in mid-October, over five months ago. I am also 65 and have multiple risk factors. I have seen no current discussion of the possibility that getting too much vaccine can result in its being less effective. Related to this was a list I found of four strategies for minimizing covid's toll in the coming months. First up was boosters, and not just the second one. The vaccination rate for the first booster has been way too low. Second was to publicize better the drug Evusheld that may offer months of additional protection to people who are immunocompromised. Third was another drug, Paxlovid, the anti-viral treatment option from Pfizer. The recommendation was that someone in a high-risk group who got infected should look into Paxlovid without delay. Finally, masks. They are not required in many places any longer, but are still helpful in the right settings at the right times. And anyone personally anxious about covid, for whatever reason, can keep wearing a mask. Just because they are no longer required does not mean they are now prohibited. 

I am right now planning to attend and volunteer at my quilt guild's show the weekend after the coming one wearing a mask. I may be the only one there wearing one, which may make me look especially dorky. Easing into late middle age, I am trying to differentiate better between looking and feeling dorky or any other way. I am hoping that I can look dorky without feeling dorky. In a science fiction rendering, I could end up being the last person in the world to contract a dreaded plague, but then that might make all the plague sufferers want to hurt me. 

Some quickies. The US is currently reporting under 800 covid deaths per day, the lowest daily average since before Omicron in the fall. 

The police in London have levied 20 fines on people for attending social gatherings at 10 Downing Street in violation of covid lockdown restrictions. So far, the prime minister has not been fined. 

The budget proposal POTUS just put forward could increase the budget of the FDA by almost 34 percent. The aim is to be better prepared for another pandemic. 

Multiple businesses are making permanent cuts in business travel. One reason is to better foster collaboration and team building. Another is to reduce the company's carbon footprint. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 243 (743)

Not much today thanks to a three-hour lunch with my oldest Charlottesville friend (both in terms of the length of our friendship and her time on this earth) on which we barely touched the surface of the things we could have expounded on.

The FDA is expected to approve second booster shots for people over the age of 50 at a meeting next week. After that, the CDC will likely issue a "permissive recommendation." That means that while they will not officially recommend people over the age of 50 get second boosters, they will note that second boosters are available for people who want them. 

China's largest city, Shanghai, population 26 million, is about to undergo phased lockdown. The eastern half of the city will be locked down until Friday, during which time they hope to test everyone living there. The western side of the city will be locked down from Friday through Tuesday, again for testing purposes. Previous lockdowns have been open-ended; this one has end dates as well as start ones. 

No more free covid tests here in the US sad to say. One from Quest Diagnostics will now run $125; some other labs will be charging up to $195.

Finally, add the Israeli prime minister to the list of world leaders who have or have had covid. 

Not as much on the agenda for tomorrow, so if there's covid news out there, I'll find some to add here.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 242 (742)

In a survey by the Partnership for New York City, a business advocacy group, the biggest concerns expressed about returning to the office were personal safety and exposure to covid. The personal safety aspect may be more unique to New York City as there have been some well-publicized incidents there. As for exposure to covid, Hawaii yesterday became the last state to remove indoor masking requirements. They will also allow travelers from the continental US to enter without vaccination or negative test proof. Hawaii has one of the largest fully-vaccinated rates, 78 percent. 

The Idaho state legislature has passed what has come to be known as the "Coronavirus Pause Act." The bill states that the decision to be vaccinated is "a very personal and individual one" and prohibits business from requiring vaccination for employment or service. 

Experts are worried about the lack of new federal funding for covid issues and programs. Funds for testing and treating uninsured patients expired last week. Money for booster shots and treatments may be gone by the end of the month. Finally, widespread domestic testing could end by June. Meanwhile, it is not known if the current covid wave in Europe is due to relaxed precautions, waning immunity, or the transmissibility of the BA.2 variant. It may not matter in terms of any coming wave here. The vaccination rates in Europe are somewhat higher than here, and feature especially higher booster rates in older adults. It boils down to the fact that even endemic viruses need to be managed which requires funding. The US currently spends billions to keep assorted viruses even modestly monitored and covid will only add to that toll.

Finally, the war in Ukraine has the potential for a public health disaster even apart from the coronavirus. The country has very high numbers of people with HIV and hepatitis C in addition to low vaccination rates for measles and polio. Overcrowded and unsanitary conditions are also breeding grounds for diseases such as cholera, other diarrheal diseases, pneumonia, and tuberculosis. Add the coronavirus to all those, and the picture gets even murkier. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 241 (741)

Gonna be a quickie today. Company's a-comin' and The Professor and I are battling CHAOS (Can't Have Anyone Over Syndrome). The only dinner prep left is to slice onions, a job I give gladly to The Professor since they bother him much less than they bother me. Cleaning and straightening up are underway. We will be ready.

The White House has advised giving people over the age of 50 the option of a fourth shot or second booster. Note that they said "option." This is by no means a requirement or even a recommendation. The FDA is expected to issue their own ruling on the issue this week, with the CDC's action coming after. Would I get one? Quite probably. It might even make me relaxed enough to ditch the mask from time to time, but I'm not promising anything. I did actually go out this week to get three pairs of jeans and four dolls at Goodwill. I needed the jeans; the dolls called out to me.

The FDA is restricting the use of one monoclonal antibody treatment in eight Northeastern states and two territories saying that it really is not effective against the BA.2 (sub)variant. This limits the treatments physicians can offer. 

The mayor of New York City said this week that unvaccinated professional athletes could compete within the city limits. Now, unions representing people who were required to be vaccinated or lose their job are upset over a waiver's being given to famous, rich people. I can see why, especially given that some of those non-athlete people were, in fact, fired.

White, high-income, highly-educated people are more likely to report using at-home tests. Who is least likely to use such a test? Unvaccinated people. You may have seen that one coming.  

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 240 (740)

Not a whole lot of covid news, so let's start with a great quote I found in an article written by someone who while suffering from covid was reading books he'd always thought he should read. The quote is from Gower in History (Gower is an area in Wales; the book is nonfiction) by Paul Ferris.

The unsettling thing about history is that we know what was going to happen to people next, and they did not. Our past was still their future.

"Our past was still their future." That applies so well to so many attempts at understanding history, what happened between then and now. It would not sound as profound, but on one level I want to change it to include the present. Our past was still their future, as is our present. If you need something to ponder in a boring meeting, try this.

Might we be offered fourth shots or a second booster soon? Some other countries are already implementing them. El Salvador has approved them for all Salvadorans and foreigners ages 12 and older. Australia is offering them to people over the age of 65, residents of nursing homes, and people with compromised immune systems. Germany is telling people over the age of 70 and those with pre-existing health conditions to get a fourth shot. I'm not sure it would make sense to offer a second booster here in the US. Our vaccination program barely exists any longer. Initial doses and boosters are at their lowest levels since December 2020, which is right about the time vaccinations started. Only 64.5 percent of Americans are fully vaccinated (two shots of an mRNA vaccine or one of Johnson & Johnson) and only 44 percent have gotten a (first) booster. 

Things are looking dire in China. Shanghai, the largest city, is reporting over 1,500 new cases daily. A nurse who worked at a hospital died of an asthma attach after finding the doors to the emergency department locked due to covid restrictions. There are no signs that the Chinese government is loosening the zero-covid policy. The director of the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission is telling the public to slow down their lives, cutting out outings and travel. In other words, stay home.

Will we know when our next surge might be coming? The jury is still out on that one. People are using home tests more and more and only reporting them if symptoms are bad enough that they seek treatment. The CDC is cutting the number of labs doing covid testing. The focus is changing from cases to hospitalizations which, given home tests, is not a bad idea, but hospitalizations are a lagging indicator. While we do have a wastewater surveillance program, it is more a patchwork than comprehensive program. Finally, government funding is running out for vaccines, treatments, and testing. We may not see the next surge until it has engulfed us. We'll see the car coming just as it hits us.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 239 (739)

As of this morning the unofficial number of covid cases in the US was 79,954,199. The unofficial number of covid deaths was 978,111. Both numbers are surely higher, possibly significantly higher. I sometimes have trouble wrapping my head around such huge numbers. I often fall back on the thought that when I was in elementary school, New York City was the largest city in the country, and its population was seven million. So at the very least 11 of my childhood New York Cities have had covid. As the number of deaths approaches one million, I remember that, again, in my childhood, being a millionaire was huge; few people attained that level of wealth. One million was a lot bigger then than it seems now. 

Ten large US airlines have asked POTUS to let the mask mandate for airports and on planes expire next month. The flight attendants' union agrees. (They're the ones who have to enforce it on a plane.) I found the list of airlines interesting: Alaska Airlines, American, Atlas Air Worldwide, Delta, FedEx Express, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, United, and UPS. As long as they don't mind if I keep wearing a mask, though I'm not at all sure when I'd think flying somewhere was worth the risk. 

Also on the mask front, schools with mandatory masking during the Delta surge had less in-school covid transmission than schools with optional or partial masking policies. With mandatory masking, there were 7.3 school cases for every 100 community-acquired cases. With optional or partial masking, there were 26.4 school cases for every 100 community-acquired cases. The study ended about the time Omicron started its surge.

Despite the abysmal vaccination rate, Africa's death toll from covid is so much lower than the death tolls in other parts of the world. Africa has certainly had its own covid spread. Two-thirds of the population in most sub-Saharan countries have antibodies. Since only 14 percent of the population is at all vaccinated, those antibodies can't be from vaccination. They have to be from infection. Reasons for the low death rate given that so many people seem to have had covid? The median age is 19. In sub-Saharan Africa, two-thirds of the people are under the age of 25, and only three percent are 65 or older. Older people may not have lived long enough to develop the underlying health conditions that can complicate covid. The overall climate is warm, and many activities take place outside. These last two factors did not, however, matter when it came to covid in India. Two possible explanations: Testing is relatively nonexistent in many places in Africa, and people are more likely to die at home with the cause of death never being reported.

The WHO says that the BA.2 form of covid is now the dominant version in the entire world. It seems that 86 percent of the cases reported to WHO between February 16 and March 17 were BA.2 rather than BA.1. Given what I just typed about testing being rare in many parts of Africa, I wonder from whence those reported cases came. Possibly not Africa.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 238 (738)

Hillary Clinton, former Senator, Secretary of State, and Presidential candidate; and Jen Psaki, press secretary to POTUS, have both tested positive for covid and are both experiencing mild symptoms. Psaki was about to leave for a NATO meeting with POTUS. She earlier had to drop from another international trip after a member of her family tested positive. A few days later, Psaki tested positive as well.

Moderna is requesting emergency use authorization for its vaccine to be given to children under the ago of six as well as to be given to children ages 12 to 17. Currently, Pfizer is the only vaccine available to children ages five and older. Moderna says that its vaccine is 44 percent effective in children ages six months to two years, and 37 percent effective in children ages two to five years.

Scientists are looking for a test to measure a person's current level of immunity to covid; this could help determine if someone needs another booster. The trouble is that not all antibodies can actively prevent infection. The current estimate is that 95 percent of Americans over the age of 15 have antibodies from vaccination or infection. Speaking of boosters, the US does not have enough money to buy a fourth dose of vaccine for all Americans. 

The WHO is warning that several European nations have eased or ended their covid restrictions too soon. Covid is now on the rise in 18 European countries. The head European official at WHO says these countries "are lifting these restrictions brutally, from too much to too few."

South Africa is lifting restrictions as the start of a "new era" in the fight against the coronavirus. Masks will no longer be required outdoors but will still be required in public indoor spaces including shops, offices, and public transportation. Venues that require proof of vaccination or a negative test result will be allowed to fun at 50 percent capacity. Venues that do not require such proof will be limited to 1,000 inside and 2,000 outside. The maximum capacity at funerals is being raised to 200 from the current limit of 100. Post-funeral gatherings will still be prohibited. For reference, only 30 percent of the population in South Africa is fully vaccinated. 

South Korea, meanwhile, is asking crematoriums and funeral homes to increase their capacities. There were 621,423 new cases last Thursday, the most in the world that day.

How about this line from The New York Times: "White House officials have said they are focusing on returning the United States to a place of prepandemic normalcy..."? Prepandemic normalcy? Really? I'm not sure I remember what that normal was. Standing shoulder-to-shoulder in a bar watching a sporting event? Air kisses on each cheek? Booking a spur-of-the-moment trip? Doing any or all of the above without thinking twice or batting an eye? I'm not sure I'll ever do things such as those without weighing whether they are worth a certain amount of risk. Nothing seems as safe today as it was before the pandemic. Nothing.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 237 (737)

I am my own worst enemy. We are having company over Saturday night, and I decided I needed to do something about the shelves over the desk in the kitchen. Three hours later, the shelves look a lot neater and more organized. The pile of stuff that I still need to sort through is not. Channeling an inner housewife is hard because I don't think I even have one. 

I asked The Professor and Son #1 this morning what the second-largest risk factor for dying from covid is after old age. Son #2 figured it was asthma which is what I would have thought had I not just read a fascinating article on schizophrenia's being that second-largest factor. At one point during the pandemic, people with schizophrenia were almost three times more likely to die from covid than were people in the general population. It looks as if the immune system might be playing a role which would mean that schizophrenia could be a whole-body disease rather than one limited to the brain. This discovery opens the door to being able to look at the relationship between the immune system and psychiatric illness by looking at the effects of a single virus at a single point in time. I'm hoping to find out more about this, having majored in psychology in what now seems like a past life.

How bad is the situation in Hong Kong? A month ago, the US covid death rate was 90 times as high as Hong Kong's. Yesterday, the cumulative US death toll was only three and a half times as high as Hong Kong's. 

New York City is preparing to end its school mask mandate for children under the age of five. That end is contingent upon cases remaining as low as they are now. Waiting until April will permit the study of the effect of unmasking on older children. Their mask mandate was stopped a few weeks ago.

Pfizer has agreed to sell up to four million doses of Paxlovid for use in 95 lower-income countries. Using it won't be a walk in the park, though, given the lack of testing and a shortage of healthcare workers who could prescribe the drug. The price has not been announced, but Pfizer says it will be a "nonprofit price." Last week, 35 countries signed up to produce Paxlovid to sell inexpensively. These doses will not, however, be available as soon as the ones from Pfizer.

Been drinking more during the pandemic? You aren't alone. In fact, the number of alcohol-related deaths in 2020 reflected a 25 percent increase over 2019. Between 2018 and 2019, there was a five percent increase. On a longer time scale, deaths in 2019 were up only 3.6 percent from 1999, 20 years earlier. Up for trying to be sober-curious? I thought not. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 236 (736)

Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas was admitted to a hospital Friday, news not made public until Sunday, with "flu-like symptoms." My first thought was, naturally, could those symptoms be covid rather than influenza? The Court knew I would be thinking this (along with millions of other curious people) and had a spokeswoman announce that Thomas's stay in a hospital is not covid-related.

Hong Kong appears to be stopping its zero-covid policy. It's not clear how well it was working given that researchers suggest that almost half the city may have had covid at some point. Residents stranded overseas will soon be able to return from nine countries that previously had worse covid situations than Hong Kong. Not allowing residents to return is evidently known as a "circuit breaker flight ban." Returnees will need a negative PCR test and must still quarantine for seven days, down from 14. To the north of Hong Kong, Shanghai Disneyland will be closed until further notice. 

As for lessening restrictions here in the US, Dr. Fauci says we are "clearly going in the right direction" on the pandemic. He cautions, though, that now is "no time at all to declare victory because this virus has fooled us before, and we really must be prepared for the possibility that we might get another variant and we don't want to be caught flatfooted on that." He also says that while retirement is tempting, he will not consider it until the pandemic is over. 

The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has been shown to remain durable and effective even in the Omicron surge. In fact, the CDC says that Johnson & Johnson had the lowest breakthrough infection rate of the three principal vaccines since December 25, 2021. Pfizer had the highest breakthrough infection rate, while Moderna was in the middle.

As long as there is covid, there will be long covid. Seven in 10 people reporting long covid say that they have concentration and memory problems. Many under-perform on cognitive tests. Of 181 participants in one study, 78 percent reported having difficulty concentration; 69 percent, brain fog; 68 percent, forgetfulness; and 60 percent, difficulty finding the right word when speaking. Researchers found a cluster of symptoms characterized by fatigue, chest pain, body, pain, headaches, and limb weakness to be predictive of cognitive symptoms and memory-test performance six months later. There are no ways known to prevent long covid. The best protection is to get vaccinated and, if you should get infected, start treatment as soon as possible.   

Ten pilots from JetBlue, American Airlines, and Southwest Airlines are suing the CDC over the federal transportation mask mandate. The suit alleges that masks are ineffective and "harmful to human health in at least 68 ways." I find that intriguing. At least 68 ways? I could not begin to think of that many health hazards brought on by masks. The only one I found cited in reports on the lawsuit was mask fatigue, "the lack of energy that accompanies and/or follows prolonged wearing of a mask." I can't imagine that a mask interferes with oxygen uptake enough to wear you out, but I've been wrong lots of times before. Maybe I should spend an entire day, save for ingesting nourishment, wearing a mask and see how tired I feel. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 235 (735)

Happy Vernal Equinox and the Arrival of Spring! My money is on Mother Nature's getting persnickety and hitting us with one more batch of freezing or frozen precipitation. Of course, her evil twin Lady Luck might side with us on this one.

The Professor has been noting each morning that the covid death counts for the US and some other countries (I think Canada is one) are no longer showing up on the site he checks every morning. (It may be Our World in Data, but I'm not sure). I was able to point out to him today that this is likely because we don't really have daily national numbers any longer. Seven states--Arizona, Hawaii, Kentucky, Nevada, Ohio, Oklahoma, and South Carolina--as well as the District of Columbia now report case, hospitalization, and death data on a weekly bases. Wyoming report such information twice weekly. One big factor is the number of home tests that come back positive but are never reported. "So the data is pretty wonky," summarizes a senior scholar at Johns Hopkins University's Center for Health Security.

I shared with The Professor an article summarizing the thoughts of three K-12 teachers on the return to in-person classes after almost two years away. Some of the issues they cite are things The Professor has noted about his classes of college freshmen who spent the years immediately preceding college in virtual learning. It's been a year of "survival and triage." There are students who have returned who skipped virtual classes entirely; one teacher likened them as having fallen into an abyss. Students are having more panic attacks and showing more anger. Students have less academic stamina; they take longer to do lessons and request more breaks. This has been a big issue for The Professor. 

Possibly because of their use of technology during virtual learning or even lockdowns, students rely more on technology, often in non-academic ways. Most students are not using their cell phones to take photographs of diagrams or bullet points written on the whiteboard. Absences are up this year, due in large part to covid or covid exposure, calling into question just what criteria should be met for promotion at the end of this year. Finally, schools are paying more for mental health services and tutoring than in past years, meaning there is less money to help meet other needs.

The state legislature in Idaho has approved the "Coronavirus Pause Act." The governor is expected to sign the act into law. Under the new law, businesses cannot turn away unvaccinated people. Vaccines cannot be required for employment unless required by federal law; think healthcare here. Local entities including school districts cannot impose vaccination mandates. 

Finally, we should not be distracted by other diseases not yet contained. Five southeastern African countries are beginning a polio vaccination campaign in reaction to an outbreak's having been declared in Malawi last month. Polio is now endemic in only two countries--Pakistan and Afghanistan. We do not want it to spread any further. 

 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 234 (734)

So many distractions this morning. Reddit's live feed of what is going on in Ukraine and Russia. A few online human interest articles from the war. Finally, having finally seen the movie Dunkirk, there was some delving into what was real, based on real, exaggerated, or just plain made up. Interestingly, there was not that much of just plain made up stuff. The movie's producer and director went to great lengths to be as historically accurate as possible while still telling one heck of a story.

Following up on yesterday's post, My Brother commented via email that he had seen the same report I had on how different political leanings influenced how great a risk people thought covid is. On the liberal side, "very liberal" people thought covid a greater risk than did "liberal" people, and "liberal" people thought covid a greater risk than did "slightly liberal." The trend on the conservative side did not match or mirror the one on the liberal side. There, "very conservative" people saw covid as a greater risk than did "conservative" or "slightly conservative" people. The group that thought the risk was the lowest was the middle one, plain old "conservative." This middle group is no longer a bridge between the two extremes. Further, one might expect to see the "very conservative" group view the risk of covid as the least of the three groups, not the greatest. Is it that the "very conservative" people might also be the most senior citizens, who are most at risk should they get infected? Is one group better-read scientifically than the others? Comments?

Since I opened with survey data, here's another puzzling one. In July 2020, 11 percent of people surveyed said that "they would have no return to pre-Covid activities." They would stay in more, maintain more distance from others, etc. In February 2022, 13 percent of people surveyed said the same thing. They have no intention of ending pandemic behaviors but will continue to avoid settings such as elevators, mass transit, and indoor dining at restaurants. One scientist notes that having that percent of the population voluntarily withdraw from most social interaction would be as if millions of people just disappeared. 

The Los Angeles Unified School District, the second largest in the country, is lifting its indoor mask requirement for students and staff. Masks are still allowed but no longer a must-do. New York City's school system, the largest in the country, stopped requiring masks on March 7. Nationwide, 92 percent of schools have dropped mask mandates. It should be noted that the CDC and the American Academy of Pediatrics still recommend masking in school settings. 

BA.2 now accounts for 30 percent of new cases in New York City, and 23 percent, nationally. How worried should we be? Well, a medical epidemiologist noted that "It's very unusual to see a surge followed by another surge in rapid succession, it's almost always a sign of some kind of immune evasion ... There are more unanswered questions about this than any previous variant."

When they make the movie Covid fifty years after the fact, I wonder how historically accurate it will be. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 233 (733)

Yesterday, I drove to Richmond and back to retrieve my now-working-wonderfully sewing machine. I stopped at rest areas while going and again while returning. I wore a mask on both stops as well as when I went into the store to retrieve my machine. In all three cases, I was the only person around who was wearing a mask. In the case of the store, an indoor establishment, no one seemed to notice or care that I was wearing a mask. At the rest stops, I got some pretty strange looks. Besides walking near people I didn't know, I was going into a small place that could well have several more people in it. Why take chances?

China is looking into slowly ending its zero-tolerance approach toward covid, as some there suggest coexisting with the virus. There may be problems with this. Besides the lower efficacy of the Chinese vaccines, the zero-covid approach has left most people with no natural immunity acquired from having been infected. Hong Kong is facing a similar snag as it passes the one million mark in cases since the pandemic began. Besides the million cases, there have been over 5,000 deaths. Besides the lack of natural immunity, Hong Kong is hampered by its dense population and a very low vaccination rate for the elderly.

Speaking of zero-covid, Samoa just recorded its first locally transmitted case. The other cases have all had a known path of transmission; the new case does not. They are going into a two-day national lockdown, banning public gatherings, and closing their borders. Islands do have their advantages. Just look at Nauru and Tuvalu, two South Pacific islands that have had no cases of covid.

Government types in Washington, DC have to be a little spooked given the number of covid cases identified there this week. The list includes the Irish prime minister, who may have been in town for St. Patrick's Day; former POTUS Obama; current "second gentleman" Douglas Emhoff; and at least nine Democratic representatives who had been at a party conference together. If POTUS and VPOTUS (is that what the Vice President is called?) weren't being tested daily, they probably are now.

All through the pandemic, we've seen a split between Democrats and Republicans, liberals and conservatives, on the danger of covid and how it should be mitigated. It turns out the there are some distinct differences of opinion within those liberal and conservative groups. For example, 47 percent of the people who consider themselves "very liberal" say that the coronavirus still poses a great risk both to adults and children. Of people who consider themselves "slightly liberal," only 18 percent see covid as still a danger to adults while only 15 percent see it as a danger to children. Since I do still believe the coronavirus is a great risk, I guess I should think about just how liberal I might be. 

Finally, for the fifth year in a row, Finland has been named the world's happiest country followed by Denmark and Iceland. There's just something about Nordic countries. Maybe it helps to be happy when facing the polar night through the winter.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 232 (732)

Today I drove more--both time- and distance-wise--than I have in over two years, and three-fourths of it was in a downpour. I retrieved my sewing machine from Richmond, about 60-some miles one-way. I did not realize just how tired the drive would leave me. I dislike driving in the rain to begin with, and the forecast looked as if the rain was going to stop soon after I left. It did not. My eyes are almost glazing over here. I spent some time before the drive helping My Mom e-file her 2021 taxes. Lunch in the middle of all that was cookies, which may explain my fatigue more than the drive.

Until tomorrow ... 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 231 (731)

I've mentioned before my respect for Eric Topol previously of the Cleveland Clinic and now at Scripps. How do you think I felt when I read this opening line from a column by Topol published in today's Guardian: "When it comes to Covid, the United States specializes in denialism." First, we denied that the novel coronavirus could transmit from human to human. Then we denied that the virus was airborne. Finally, we denied that boosters were needed longer than we should have. 

Global cases seemed to bottom out in early March but are now rising again. The UK and Europe have seen five covid surges; each time, a surge in the US follows a few weeks later. Case rates are rising in over half of the EU nations. What happens across the pond doesn't stay over the pond. The UK and Europe are now seeing a sixth surge, and we don't seem to be all that concerned. I also follow a local emergency medicine doctor, and his take is, "Well folks, I think we’re going to have an issue here with the #BA2variant. I’ve been watching the trends in Europe and some early signs that cases are rising here."

The BA.2 variant (some call it a subvariant) seems to go in a cycle of being touted then pooh-poohed. We might want to keep a sharp eye on it as it currently accounts for over 30 percent of our new cases. Maybe if it had its own Greek letter, we would take it more seriously. We seem to know that it is more transmissible that Omicron, but I've heard both sides to the question of whether it is more serious. 

In terms of rising numbers of cases, Dr. Fauci says his counterparts in the UK cute three factors. First, BA.2 is, as mentioned, more transmissible. Second, society is reopening and people are mingling indoors without wearing masks. Finally, immunity is waning. Pfizer has asked the FDA to authorize a second booster for people over the age of 65. I've read different opinions on just how necessary that booster would be. In the US, 65 percent of people over the age of 65 have gotten the initial two vaccinations and a third, booster one. In many European and Asian countries, that percent is over 90. 

Expanding from people over the age of 65 to everyone, the US as a nation is doing a dismal job with vaccinations. We rank 65th in the world in terms of the percent of population being "fully" vaccinated with two doses; 64 percent have gotten those. We rank 70th in terms of three shots, one being a booster; only 29 percent have gotten all three. The argument is being made that so few people over the age of 65 would get the second booster that it wouldn't really do much good. I'd get another booster if they offered me one. 

On the world stage, the war in Ukraine continues. There was an earthquake of magnitude 7.3 off the coast of Japan, after which tsunami warnings were posted. And on a smaller scale, we are evidently looking at the appearance of Asian jumping earthworms that, unlike non-jumping earthworms, hurt the soil's ability to retain water. Oh, yeah, we aren't out of the pandemic woods yet either.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 230 (730)

Beware the Ides of March ... or perhaps the Ideas of March? This is the final post of this blog's second year. Tomorrow is two years from my initial post on Monday, March 16, 2020. Did I think then I'd still be doing this every day two years later? It never crossed my mind how long I might be doing this. If it had, I might have gotten discouraged early on and quit. It has not been all pandemic all the time; many of the 2020 posts concerned the presidential election as well as the pandemic. That split attention has been absent of late. If I were to start posting about the war in Ukraine--the other big thing that weighs on my mind these days--it would not be pretty. I cry when I get angry, and just don't get me started on it now. 

So, back to the pandemic. I found a great term in reference to vaccines for children: the "Goldilocks dose." It's strong enough to offer lasting protection but not so strong that it causes worrisome side effects such as fevers. Even children, no, especially children should be able to grasp the meaning of that.

Even with the pandemic, there are people who never seem to have gotten covid even in two full years. Throwing out that they may have had an asymptomatic case and never known it, their lack of infection might be due to being vigilant about vaccines, masking, and distancing. They may also have remained totally isolated which is to say more isolated than I've kept myself. That would be pretty darn isolated. Though many cases are caught within one's own household, household transmission is not a given. Living and breathing the same air together does not guarantee transmission of any germ. Finally, just as some people seem preternaturally unlucky, some people are just plain lucky.

Covid cases are surging in the Asia-Pacific region. The region is seeing some of the world's steepest spikes. South Korea and Vietnam see new records daily in terms of number of cases. China has locked down 37 million people as Hong Kong and Taiwan also try a "zero covid" approach. The Chinese lockdowns will further disrupt the global supply chain. Still, there are some signs of a return to something resembling normal. Australia has reopened to vaccinated tourists and is about to lift its two-year ban on cruise ships. Some Australian states are loosening masking requirements and no longer tracing contacts. Japan is considering removing the quarantine requirements for foreign business people and students. Elsewhere, the UK is ending its remaining international travel restrictions this week. One aim is to offer "greater freedom in time for Easter." Iceland and Ireland are also dropping border requirements. 

Here at home, the number of people who "think Covid is little or no risk" is up, and interest in masking is down. In a recent poll, 64 percent of respondents want all restrictions lifted, though three in four do say that they'd put masks back on if infections increased. Health-wise, 83 percent think that their physical health is good, and 84 percent think that their emotional well-being is good. These are the highest responses for both questions since May 2020.

Finally--and this ties to the situation in Ukraine--Pfizer is stopping all clinical trials going on in Russia and donating all the profits from activities in Russia to Ukraine. While I understand Western aversion to what would amount to World War III should boots go to ground or planes go to airspace, I am sickened by what the Russians are doing and fear that no case for war crimes will ever be made. Even with case and conviction, I don't think the responsible person(s) will ever be made to pay. As for Ukraine's comedian turned president, I like something I read on Axios this morning: When life gives you shit, shine! He certainly has. Slava Ukraini!

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 229 (729)

Happy Pi Day!! Unfortunately, 1:59 slipped right by as I was baking, so I missed 3.14159. Oh well. I'll live. 

President Obama reports testing positive for covid. He tested himself in response to a scratchy throat Friday night. He's fully vaccinated and boostered, so here's hoping his case stays a mild one. So far, Michelle has tested negative.

A 136-page "road map" for moving from the current crisis to the "next normal" has recommended that a Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics become part of the CDC. We really need something to help us. In November 2019, the US ranked first among 195 countries in pandemic preparedness. Even so, the US has had failures that include politicization, lack of trust, individualization of health, and widespread inequality. That list has one key reason totally unrelated to public health--lack of trust. Recent research looked at infection and fatality rates in 177 countries looking for connections to democracy, universal health care, hospital capacity, quality of healthcare, and economic inequality. No connection was found between any of those factors and outcomes. The only factor that seemed to matter was trust, in leaders and in one another. While trust does play a critical role, other improvements are still needed in data collection and sharing, vaccines and treatments, improved ventilation, and high quality masking during respiratory outbreaks. It would be helpful, as the next pandemic dawns, to be able to contain outbreaks closer to their source. 

Pfizer is collecting data on a second booster. The Netherlands is offering people who received one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine followed by one booster of an mRNA vaccine a second dose of mRNA vaccine. The stated aim is to help travelers meet the restrictions of more countries. 

China has locked down the province of Jilin with a population of 24 million people. People cannot move around and very definitely cannot leave. The system of "closed management" includes three rounds of testing; people are permitted to leave home for those. Multiple officials in the province are being fired or punished. I have no details on what that "punishment" might entail.

Something positive about the coronavirus! The public health measures put in place to stop the spread of covid also stopped the spread of dengue virus. The decline in dengue started in April 2020. The estimate is that there were 720,000 fewer cases of dengue in the first year of the pandemic due to restrictions on movement. School closures also played a role. Influenza cases were also down in the winter of 2020-2021. I have not read if they were down as much in the winter about to end.

Beware the Ides of March!

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 228 (728)

Were it not for the two articles I read this morning on a BA.2.2 variant and a recombinant variant for now called AY.4/BA.1, likely to be redesignated as XD in the near future, I might agree that the novel coronavirus we worried so much about two years ago really is on its last steps to endemicity. In taking notes for each day's entries, one of the online sources I check is The Guardian. It's out there before the daily digest emails from the AP, New York Times, CNN, etc. arrive in my inbox. This morning, I looked at a couple of articles on the war in Ukraine and a general human interest item or two on my way, I thought, to the section of articles under the heading "Coronavirus." Section after section passed, and I arrived at the site's end never having found a Coronavirus section. The New York Times is cutting to three weekly coronavirus emails, and we'll see if The Guardian's section is back tomorrow.

China certainly is not seeing the end or even any lapsing of the coronavirus. There were 1,100 new cases Friday; 1,524 on Saturday; and 3,122 on Sunday. A week ago there were just a couple hundred each day. Not too far away, cases in South Korea increased 104 percent over the past two weeks. Right in the middle of the most recent week, the presidential election took place. It was a close one, but I have yet to hear if it will or even can be contested. Both countries have extremely high vaccination rates.

Oregon and Washington both have among the lowest total cases and deaths per capita. They are also both lifting statewide mask mandates. Masks will continue to be required in nursing homes, hospitals, taxis, and public buses. School districts will be allowed to set their own rules. Here, local schools may no longer mandate students wear masks; that decision is left to parents. Kids can, though, once they get to school, remove the masks they are still required to wear on the bus. There are no in-school mask police. The local school board will discuss staff and visitor masking--which are still required--at an upcoming meeting. 

The recombinant vaccine mentioned above has also been called Deltamicron or Deltacron. It was originally thought that people with this were suffering simultaneously from Delta and Omicron, though simultaneous infections are a rarity. Now, it is thought that someone did get both, and when the two viruses invaded the same cell, they reproduced into the new variant, a hybrid that then started to spread on its own. We'll have to see how this progresses.

So far the exodus of Ukrainian refugees has not resulted in super-spreading covid or any other disease, but it likely will eventually. The relatively low Ukrainian vaccination rate--barely a third of the population--will not help. In the meantime, though, a Ukrainian physician notes that, "People are not frightened about covid any more. People are frightened of the war." As would I, were I to be Ukrainian.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 227 (727)

Since March 2, 2020, the New York Times has been issuing a daily coronavirus briefing. At the time the briefing began, there had been only 100 cases in the US, but over 90,000 globally. Of those, 80,000 were in China. Most of the 3,000 deaths had also been in China. The CDC was advising avoiding all nonessential travel to Italy, China, Iran, South Korea, and Japan. This morning's email announced that the briefing would be moving to a Monday-Wednesday-Friday schedule unless there is "big virus news you need to know about" and that this was part of moving to the "next phase of the pandemic." I was reminded of the Virginia governor's pandemic press conferences that started being held on every weekday, then Monday-Wednesday-Friday, then Tuesday-Thursday, then as needed. The times, they are a-changin'.

Two mayors have been fired in northeastern China, and Shanghai has closed its school system and moved to online instruction. China is moving from a "zero covid" mindset to a "dynamic zero" strategy. Under the new strategy, local outbreaks are tolerated with local officials depended on to control the current outbreak and curtail new cases. The two mayors who were fired obviously did not do this well enough. There are currently cases in 21 of China's 30 provinces.

Queen Elizabeth will skip next week's Commonwealth Day ceremony. That would have been her first major public event in weeks. She did have her first post-covid, in-person meeting this week, with Canada's Justin Trudeau. Prince Charles will represent the Queen at the ceremony, accompanied by his wife. The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge (aka William and Kate) will also attend. 

A new checklist of what we know about the BA.2 subvariant suggests it may not be as critical as some thought. What we know includes that it is not really new but has been around at least as long as the BA.1 Omicron variant has. BA.2 does seem to be easier to catch, but it does not seem to be more severe than the original Omicron. BA.2 is not surging in the US and likely will not surge here. Finally, its "stealth" identity is outdated. It can now be identified relatively easily. I want to believe all that, but I'm still waiting for the next covid shoe to drop.

Hong Kong has one of the world's highest fatality rates right now. With morgues full, bodies have been bagged and left in wards with live patients. There is no room at the inn. I am not at all sure how I would feel knowing that the beds next to me were occupied by dead rather than alive bodies. On the other hand, were I sick enough to be in the hospital, I might not be aware enough to realize that. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 226 (726)

Happy Second Anniversary, Novel Coronavirus Pandemic! The traditional second anniversary gift is cotton. The modern one is, interestingly, china. Some sources say that WHO was slow to declare the pandemic. WHO counters that it declared the pandemic because so many countries were not taking seriously its earlier declaration of a public health emergency. On the day WHO declared the pandemic, there were over 120,000 cases in 114 countries, and there had been around 4,300 deaths globally. There were 1,263 cases identified in the US, along with 37 deaths. On the second anniversary, the "official" death toll is six million; looking at "excess deaths," though, suggests that 18 million is a better estimate.

As for an end to the pandemic, WHO has not specified any target thresholds. Pandemics generally don't end uniformly but end region by region. Considering past pandemics does reveal some recurring themes. A pandemic does not end suddenly; the end is a process not a product, and can take more time than might be thought. As Omicron lessens in the Western world, cases are still going up in areas of Asia. There is not just one end. The medical end occurs as the disease recedes. The end to a government's preventive measures marks the political end. Finally, there is a social or psychological end, marking when people move on from the pandemic's effect on them and their habits. 

WHO may have been slow to declare the pandemic's start, but it now cautions that many countries are treating the pandemic as over and letting down their guard too soon. As one public health expert put it, "This virus has fooled us every time." Still, only two percent of Americans now live in counties where the CDC still recommends universal indoor masking. Will there be a new variant to change that statistic? Quite possibly. Will we see it coming? We should hope so. I have drawn back from the matter-of-fact statement that we're fucked, which is not to say we can't take a step backwards. 

Let's leave the last word from the same official who declared the start two years ago, the WHO director:

 "The pandemic is far from over, and it will not be over anywhere until it's over everywhere."

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 225 (725)

California is somewhat formally moving from pandemicity to endemicity as state mandates are lifted or loosened. A legislative movement is underway to add covid to the list of vaccines required for children to enter school.  Coupled with this is a movement to close the personal belief exemption for covid vaccination. It sounds as if it would stay in place for other vaccinations such as measles.

In terms of California's move, covid does appear to be slowing its onslaught. Cases per 100,000 people over the past two weeks rose in only two states, Washington and Connecticut, and the largest rise, in Washington, was only five. The biggest decline was Kentucky's forty. West Virginia, Maine, and New Hampshire also saw significant drops. Probably more telling, daily deaths fell by 24 percent in the past two weeks. Death is even more of a lagging measurement than hospitalization, so a drop in deaths is possibly one of the truest signs the Omicron surge is ending. I'm trying not to think about the BA.2 variant as I type that. 

The TSA is extending the mask mandate for airplanes and other public transportation through April 18. The mandate applies both to public transportation and to public transportation hubs such as airports or bus stations. The CDC is consulting with other federal agencies about how long to keep this mask mandate in effect. Meanwhile, Ontario is dropping its universal mask mandate as of March 21, though authorities emphasize that this does not mean the risk is gone. 

Omicron is still peaking in parts of East and Southeast Asia. Hong Kong has the highest fatality rate in the world right now. Lots of countries are loosening their entrance requirements and seeking to welcome the tourists they have not seen for two years.

I did not emerge into the real, peopled world last night, passing on the quilting guild chapter meeting The Professor thought I should attend. Not having slept well the night before, I ended up sleeping all the way home from sewing-machine-dropoff and lunch in Richmond and still felt too tired to venture out. I have never liked driving at night--my eyeglasses don't fix my double vision as well in the dark as they do in the daylight--and did not want to drive in the dark while exhausted. As for venturing out, I did to work with early voting for two elections and two election days, so those should count for something. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 224 (724)

Hawaii has become the final state to drop its face-covering mandate. The mask mandate there ends as of March 25.

How's that for today's post? The Professor and I are headed to Richmond to drop Xena the Warrior Bernina off at a sewing machine mechanic for repairs to the bobbin assembly. Then we'll go to Son #2's house for take-out lunch. By the time we get home, The Family Dog will need attention as might a few other home thingies. I'll be back tomorrow, gods willin' and the creek don't rise.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 223 (723)

Today is International Women's Day, a day I did not know existed until 2009 when we arrived in Vietnam just in time for it. I had no idea why random people were handing me flowers. Perhaps at that point it had yet to touch on American culture. The US, sadly but not surprisingly, ranks 20th on The Economist's list of the Best Places to Be a Working Woman. The UK ranks 17th, while Canada comes in at 10th. Again not surprisingly, four of the top five countries are Norse. Sweden leads the list followed by Iceland, Finland, Norway, and Portugal.

Since I led with rankings, I might as well follow up with some covid rankings. California leads the 50 states in the number of covid deaths, 82,026; Vermont brings up the bottom with 546. Recognizing that the population of California versus that of Vermont makes those numbers somewhat irrelevant, deaths per 100,000 people is a better scale. Mississippi leads that list with 391; Vermont again brings up the bottom with 87. From states to countries, Peru leads the list of deaths per 100,000 people with 641.71: New Zealand rests at the bottom with 1.08. The US sits at 17th with 282.85. Vaccinations by country? We could certainly do better there. The world average is 54 percent fully vaccinated. Portugal is the most vaccinated with 91.46 percent fully vaccinated. The US ranks 21st with 65.59 percent. I don't think we'd be competitive if it were a competition. 

The risk of covid to kids is now about the same as the risk of influenza. We have no problem telling parents to get their children flu shots; why can't we treat covid the same way? Florida is on the verge of recommending that healthy children not be vaccinated against covid. The new state surgeon general has "expressed skepticism about the vaccines' effectiveness." What should I expect in a state in which the governor hosts a 90-minute discussion on "The Curtain Close on Covid Theater"? Hawaii is now the only state not lifting a statewide indoor mask mandate. Only a third of US school districts still require masks. 

A professor of preventive medicine and health policy at Vanderbilt University notes five distinct peaks in the US beginning with April 2020 as the pandemic began to take hold. A second peak occurred in August 2020 with a third in January 2021 after the winter holidays. There was a Delta peak in September 2021 followed by an Omicron one in January 2022. The professor notes that the on again-off again nature of the pandemic "has led to a lot of the confusion and grumpiness." You gotta love someone mentioning grumpiness in that way. I'm still pondering whether the introvert I am would be more or less grumpy had the pandemic not given me a perfect excuse to cocoon for an extended period of time. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 222 (722)

Eric Topol is a physician and scientist whom I've followed on Twitter during much of the pandemic. I first heard of him when he was a cardiologist at the Cleveland Clinic. He's now at the Scripps Research Institute. He recently started a series of articles under the title Ground Truths. His latest, "The Epidemic of Covid Complacency," is pretty compelling. You should be able to get to it without subscribing, though I'm glad I subscribed and hear when new articles appear. There is no cost to subscribe.

The organizers of the convoys now descended upon the nation's capital are threatening a week of traffic disruptions. Their loose collection of demands includes an end to all pandemic-related restrictions. Given the speed with which localities and states are loosening or removing restrictions, it's not clear to me just how meaningful this demand is. The plan is for vehicles to fill all the traffic lanes of the Capital Beltway and drive at the minimum legal speed twice daily. The drivers are mostly white, middle-aged men. One of the organizers explained yesterday, "We're not anti-vaxxers. We're not. We just want freedom, freedom. We want to choose. We just want the choice. So tomorrow is a basically a show of just how big we are and how serious we are."

In terms of pandemic restrictions, the CDC reports that over 90 percent of the US is now at low or medium risk, meaning requirements for masks and other precautions can be loosened. Still, only 65 percent of Americans are fully vaccinated. Some physicians and public health officials are worried people as well as public leaders will think the pandemic is over. These experts caution that we need to prepare for another variant which could be more transmissible. They advise that we continue investing in masks, tests, ventilation, vaccination, wastewater monitoring, and other response measures. Above all, we need to expect the unexpected and not prepare for the best-case scenario. 

China is facing its biggest covid outbreak since the early days of the pandemic. There were over 800 new cases over the weekend, almost as many as there were in the previous week. Cases in 17 of 31 provinces are really testing the nation's zero covid policy. The policy has changed somewhat from trying to lock down entire cities to locking down residential districts or work sectors. People coming in from Hong Kong, which is battling its own surge, are being required to quarantine for two weeks. 

New York City public schools are mask-optional as of today for all students ages five and older. Four-year-olds in preschool and kindergarten must still wear masks. One problem is that vaccination rates are not consistent across schools and districts. Teachers are not thrilled with the program and want to make sure that in-school and take-home testing continues. I liked the description offered by a fifth grader: "It feels like Covid is kind of over, even though it is not. It feels like everyone just kind of gave up on it." Out of the mouths of babes?

An article in Nature suggests that covid may cause greater loss of grey matter and tissue damage in the brain than naturally occurs. The general implications are not clear; the study was done on people between the ages of 51 and 81. It seems that the shrinkage and tissue damage is primarily in brain areas related to smell. That would be consistent with the number of covid sufferers who report that the sense of smell they lost while having covid never completely returned.

Last but certainly not least, the global death toll is said to have passed six million. That would be the clearly undercounted global death toll. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 221 (721)

The UK has seen a large rise in long-term illnesses since the pandemic began. Among the causes are long covid, breathing difficulties, and mental-health problems. Some 14.2 million people aged 16 to 64 said that they had had a health condition lasting 12 months or more in 2021, up 1.2 million from the year before. This suggests that the "average" level of health could be decreasing. 

The vehicle convoys--the truck convoy has expanded to include recreational vehicles and cars as well as trucks--are gathering in Hagerstown, Maryland, about 70 miles northwest of the District of Columbia. It is not clear what their plans are after at least one rally at the Hagerstown Speedway. The head of the DC Homeland Security and Emergency Management Agency says that the convoys have said that they will stay out of the District. It's not clear if that is true; one source did say a group might be heading to the Capital Beltway.

The mayor of Boise, Idaho says that she has faced "real and grave" threats including protesters with torches and pitchforks outside her home over her support of covid restrictions. She said that some other city officials had resigned due to the threats. She now has a protective details and has changed her routines including canceling her morning trail runs. Health regulations have been especially divisive in Idaho, not surprising considering only 53 percent of residents are fully vaccinated.

You may have seen photos of Vladimir Putin meeting with people. Putin sits at one end of a massively long table, and the other person sits at the other end. The Federal Protective Service has maintained a virus-free bubble in which Putin stays, protection far stronger than most other world leaders have maintained. At Putin's residence and the Kremlin, all visitors must pass through disinfectant tunnels to enter. All world leaders visiting with Putin must quarantine for two weeks or tests negative on a PCR test. Some world leaders have refused the PCR test if Russian doctors conduct it; they don't want the Russians to have the sample of their DNA that a PCR test would provide. 

In a small online poll of 1,250 Americans in February, 56 percent reported having medical debt. Thirty percent of the group with medical debt said that it was from covid treatment. Such treatment was typically provided free of charge in the early days of the pandemic, but no longer is. 

Finally, Spain is dropping many of its covid restrictions and telling people to act responsibly. I still wrestle with how many people will be and just how responsible they will be. It's on them, though. I can only really control my own behavior on this front.  

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 220 (720)

Pandemic news, well, new pandemic news, was hard to come by this morning. As you might expect, the focus is on Ukraine and its defense against Russian aggression. The Professor has a couple of coworkers who are Russian. One has made it quite clear that he supports Putin's undertaking. Fortunately, these are not people with whom The Professor interacts on a daily basis. 

We are nearing the second anniversary of WHO's official pronouncement of a pandemic on March 11, 2020. Those two years sometimes seem to have flown by, while other times they seem to have taken forever. I wonder whether WHO will offer some official announcement when it decides the pandemic has passed. On to current news...

Covid hospitalizations in the US are at about the lowest point of the past year. The US currently averages 55,701 new cases daily; 41,014 covid patients are in hospitals, a 23 percent drop from last week. That is about one-fourth of the mid-January peak and lower than it's been for most of the last year. Love it or leave it, it's easy to see why restrictions are being loosened or disappearing. 

The covid numbers in Hong Kong are surging probably more than our numbers are dropping. The healthcare system is on the verge of breaking down; beds have been moved outdoors because there is no room inside. Whatever number is reported, it is likely to be a significant undercount. People are not reporting positive tests to avoid being placed in government isolation facilities. For the week ending on March 3, Hong Kong reported more deaths per million than any other country or territory. A major problem is that though 78 percent of the population ages 12 and older are fully vaccinated, only 48 percent of people ages 70 and older are. At the start of this year, only 25 percent of people over the age of 80 had been vaccinated.

Three truck convoys should be arriving in Washington, DC this weekend. The "People's Convoy" from California should arrive today. The "American Freedom Convoy" from the Midwest should arrive on Monday. Somewhere in between is a convoy that started in the Northeast. I have not read what their plans may include, things such as blocking the streets leading to the Capitol or White House. I wonder if they have thought about simply blocking traffic around the Beltway. It's hard to imagine just how much trouble that might cause.

 The Professor and I could not resist watching Contagion last night. The virus there seemed to have a much more rapid onset and progression. Some of the mob-like scenes seemed over-the-top, but then my view of what was going on in Italy or New York City in the pandemic's first days was whatever the news media provided. The movie seemed to totally bypass any clinical testing and approval of vaccines. To say more would be a spoiler. It wasn't a bad movie. It definitely made me think about what this has been like for the scientific first-responders, the epidemiologists and virologists under pressure to provide answers immediately if not before. I think we'll look for something a little more lighthearted if we decide tonight is another movie night.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 219 (719)

Just a few quickies this morning. The afternoon is getting full, and the evening is movie time (on Netflix) with The Professor.

Baricitinib (don't you just love all those i letters?), an anti-inflammatory drug taken for rheumatoid arthritis, can reduce death from severe covid by about one fifth, according to the Randomised Evaluation of Covid-19 Therapy (Recovery). When other drugs are added, the risk of death could go down by over 50 percent. As with much pandemic news, this has not yet been peer-reviewed.

There has been a significant drop in the amount of covid misinformation on social media in the last week. Attention has shifted to Ukraine. It seems that some anti-vaccine proponents are moving to support Russia. I find this interesting. A lot of anti-vaccine proponents say that vaccination is too controlled by the federal government. They should go see how controlled things are in Russia.

New York City prepares to stop requiring masks in schools. It can be argued that masks seem less important in light of the Ukraine situation; however, there is concern on how dropping masks may affect people who are immunocompromised. 

Two of Hong Kong's largest consumer retail chains are rationing some food and drug items to curb panic buying. If you need an ambulance in Hong Kong, you might have a long wait. Delays of one day are common; the record wait so far is one day, 15 hours. A third of ambulance workers either have tested positive or have been in close contact with a covid sufferer.

Los Angeles County (the city of Los Angeles is a separate entity) is lifting almost all indoor mask and vaccine verification requirements. Large indoor events will still require proof of vaccination or a negative test. Individual businesses can opt to keep requirements in place.

So far, there's been no real discussion of the possibility that the mass exodus from Ukraine could carry with it multiple super-spreader events. The countries absorbing the evacuees have enough on their plates without adding covid spread. Still, it's something to keep in mind.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 218 (718)

Some participants in covid "challenge trials" never got covid despite being exposed in various ways or even having the virus placed directly inside their nostrils. Some did report minor symptoms, but their viral levels never got high enough to trigger a detectable level of antibodies, T-cells, or other defenses. One theory as to why this happened is that these people may maintain "memory T-cells" from previous infection by another coronavirus. There is also some evidence that having had the H1N1 strain of influenza might provide partial protection against covid. Finally, there could be a genetic component as there is with Malaria and norovirus.

It does not surprise me that the pandemic has hit women with more serious social and economic impact than men. In terms of loss of work as of September 2021, 25 percent of those affected were women compared with 20 percent men. Females were also more apt to drop out of school or to report an increase in gender-based violence. The pandemic has not created new inequities between genders, but it has exacerbated existing ones. 

About one in every four Americans is unvaccinated. I find this fact hard to grasp when the global rate of full vaccination is now up to 56 percent and will at some point pass the US rate. I don't think that the rest of the world has serious vaccine mandates; are those people just more trusting in science or in their governments? I wonder.

One of my state's two Senators, Tim Kaine, has announced he has long covid two years after his initial infection. He said his nerves feel as if he'd had five cups of coffee. He is pushing for more research on long covid, as discussed in The Covid National Preparedness Plan put out by the White House yesterday. That plan carries a commitment to efforts to "detect, prevent, and treat long covid." Specific proposals include an interagency research plan and "centers of excellence" to provide care.

The Surgeon General has requested major tech platforms provide information about the scale of misinformation on social networks, search engines, crowd-sourced platforms, e-commerce platforms, and instant messaging systems. He also wants to know "exactly how many users saw or may have been exposed to instances of Covid-19 misinformation" and aggregate data on the demographics of those exposed. The Surgeon General says that "this is about protecting the nation's health." The data coming in from every tech platform sounds overwhelming to me, but I guess that's why the government has data scientists.

One of the pandemic's longest border closures has ended. Western Australia is now allowing entry from both within and outside of Australia. The border closure served them well. Until the Omicron surge, they had registered only 11 deaths. One of my friends in Perth hopes to be seeing her son soon. Living in Melbourne, he was unable to come home to visit; I'm not sure if she could have visited him and been able to return to WA.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 217 (717)

The war in Ukraine did not bump the coronavirus from POTUS's State of the Union address last night, though covid might otherwise have gotten more attention. POTUS said that the country is "moving forward safely, back to more normal routines" and that "covid-19 need no longer control our lives." He said we must stay on guard so as to be ready if a new variant arises. He specifically used the word "if" almost as if doing so made "when" not likely. I differ with him on that one. There will be new variants probably sooner rather than later. They may not be as deadly or transmissible as Delta or Omicron, but they will be out there.

The glut of undistributed covid tests should get smaller. Starting next week, families can request more free tests--four per household--from covidtest.gov. POTUS also announced a "Test & Treat" program in which someone who tests positive at a drugstore can immediately obtain, free of charge, antiviral treatment pills. I guess you could test at home and, if positive, go to a drugstore for another test and then get the treatment.

The CDC no longer recommends universal case investigation and contact tracing for anything but cases in high-risk settings. Home testing with no required notification of positive results makes it hard to run a formal program. I would like to think that someone who tests positive would do some contact notification on their own, but that may be presumptuous.

Hawaii is moving to loosen restrictions, though an indoor mask mandate will remain in effect. Testing and quarantine requirements have ended as has the requirement that state and county employees show proof of vaccination or negative test results. 

For the men out there, it seems that the coronavirus invades cells in the penis and testicles of rhesus macaques. This may help explain why 10 to 20 percent of covid patients report "male genital tract dysfunction" otherwise known as erectile dysfunction. The paper has not yet been peer-reviewed, and the study was based on only three monkeys; still, it might be worth investigating further.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 216 (716)

Lots of poll results today but first there's news I don't think many parents wanted to hear or read. It appears that the Pfizer vaccine is far less effective in five- through 11-year-old children than in older children. While it still offers protection against hospitalization, it appears to offer almost no protection against infection even just a month after vaccination. This may be due to the fact that the dosage is but one-third of the dose adults and teenagers get. In support of this, for the two weeks ending January 30, there was 67 percent effectiveness in 12-year-old children versus 11 percent effectiveness in 11-year-old children. Given that biological differences would be minor here argues that the problem is a dosage one. Giving younger children the higher, teenage dosage may not be an option. The higher dosage may cause too many fevers, a side effect particularly dangerous in young children. I know parents who home-schooled their children planning to send them back to classrooms once vaccinations of younger kids started. I don't want to think how they're feeling right now.

According to an Axios/Ipsos poll, only 35 percent of people think the current administration has done a good job restarting the economy and supporting small businesses. While 58 percent think that the administration did an excellent or good job on supporting vaccine development and delivery, only 43 percent trust the current administration to provide accurate information on the virus. This is down from 54 percent a year ago.

In a Washington Post-ABC poll, 60 percent of Americans say that some restrictions should remain in place. A majority, 64 percent, think that the virus is only "somewhat under control" or "not at all under control." Even so, most say that they have fully or mostly returned to pre-coronavirus activities. In an Economist-YouGov poll, 52 percent of Americans say they support mask mandates for indoor spaces. In an Associated Press-NORC poll, half of Americans support mask mandates when people are around others outside their homes. Fewer than three in 10 oppose such mandates. In the same poll, 38 percent say that restrictions should end, while 58 percent believe some measures should remain in place to control the spread of the virus. 

A CDC analysis of blood samples suggests that 140 million Americans have had covid, about double the number usually cited. There are 14 states in which half of people carry covid antibodies in their blood. Wisconsin leads the list at 56 percent. The others, in descending order, are Iowa, Illinois, Ohio, Wyoming, Texas, Indiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee, and Louisiana, followed by Georgia with 50 percent. New York came close, at 49 percent. 

Finally, a preprint from Canadian researchers reports the first case of deer-to-human covid transmission. The variant involved was said to have a "new and highly divergent lineage." It had 76 consensus mutations including 37 previously associated with non-human animal hosts, 23 of which were not previously reported in deer. The claim of deer-to-human transmission is based on identifying a "epidemiologically-linked" human case from the same geographic region and sampling period.