The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 238 (738)

Hillary Clinton, former Senator, Secretary of State, and Presidential candidate; and Jen Psaki, press secretary to POTUS, have both tested positive for covid and are both experiencing mild symptoms. Psaki was about to leave for a NATO meeting with POTUS. She earlier had to drop from another international trip after a member of her family tested positive. A few days later, Psaki tested positive as well.

Moderna is requesting emergency use authorization for its vaccine to be given to children under the ago of six as well as to be given to children ages 12 to 17. Currently, Pfizer is the only vaccine available to children ages five and older. Moderna says that its vaccine is 44 percent effective in children ages six months to two years, and 37 percent effective in children ages two to five years.

Scientists are looking for a test to measure a person's current level of immunity to covid; this could help determine if someone needs another booster. The trouble is that not all antibodies can actively prevent infection. The current estimate is that 95 percent of Americans over the age of 15 have antibodies from vaccination or infection. Speaking of boosters, the US does not have enough money to buy a fourth dose of vaccine for all Americans. 

The WHO is warning that several European nations have eased or ended their covid restrictions too soon. Covid is now on the rise in 18 European countries. The head European official at WHO says these countries "are lifting these restrictions brutally, from too much to too few."

South Africa is lifting restrictions as the start of a "new era" in the fight against the coronavirus. Masks will no longer be required outdoors but will still be required in public indoor spaces including shops, offices, and public transportation. Venues that require proof of vaccination or a negative test result will be allowed to fun at 50 percent capacity. Venues that do not require such proof will be limited to 1,000 inside and 2,000 outside. The maximum capacity at funerals is being raised to 200 from the current limit of 100. Post-funeral gatherings will still be prohibited. For reference, only 30 percent of the population in South Africa is fully vaccinated. 

South Korea, meanwhile, is asking crematoriums and funeral homes to increase their capacities. There were 621,423 new cases last Thursday, the most in the world that day.

How about this line from The New York Times: "White House officials have said they are focusing on returning the United States to a place of prepandemic normalcy..."? Prepandemic normalcy? Really? I'm not sure I remember what that normal was. Standing shoulder-to-shoulder in a bar watching a sporting event? Air kisses on each cheek? Booking a spur-of-the-moment trip? Doing any or all of the above without thinking twice or batting an eye? I'm not sure I'll ever do things such as those without weighing whether they are worth a certain amount of risk. Nothing seems as safe today as it was before the pandemic. Nothing.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 222 (722)

Eric Topol is a physician and scientist whom I've followed on Twitter during much of the pandemic. I first heard of him when he was a cardiologist at the Cleveland Clinic. He's now at the Scripps Research Institute. He recently started a series of articles under the title Ground Truths. His latest, "The Epidemic of Covid Complacency," is pretty compelling. You should be able to get to it without subscribing, though I'm glad I subscribed and hear when new articles appear. There is no cost to subscribe.

The organizers of the convoys now descended upon the nation's capital are threatening a week of traffic disruptions. Their loose collection of demands includes an end to all pandemic-related restrictions. Given the speed with which localities and states are loosening or removing restrictions, it's not clear to me just how meaningful this demand is. The plan is for vehicles to fill all the traffic lanes of the Capital Beltway and drive at the minimum legal speed twice daily. The drivers are mostly white, middle-aged men. One of the organizers explained yesterday, "We're not anti-vaxxers. We're not. We just want freedom, freedom. We want to choose. We just want the choice. So tomorrow is a basically a show of just how big we are and how serious we are."

In terms of pandemic restrictions, the CDC reports that over 90 percent of the US is now at low or medium risk, meaning requirements for masks and other precautions can be loosened. Still, only 65 percent of Americans are fully vaccinated. Some physicians and public health officials are worried people as well as public leaders will think the pandemic is over. These experts caution that we need to prepare for another variant which could be more transmissible. They advise that we continue investing in masks, tests, ventilation, vaccination, wastewater monitoring, and other response measures. Above all, we need to expect the unexpected and not prepare for the best-case scenario. 

China is facing its biggest covid outbreak since the early days of the pandemic. There were over 800 new cases over the weekend, almost as many as there were in the previous week. Cases in 17 of 31 provinces are really testing the nation's zero covid policy. The policy has changed somewhat from trying to lock down entire cities to locking down residential districts or work sectors. People coming in from Hong Kong, which is battling its own surge, are being required to quarantine for two weeks. 

New York City public schools are mask-optional as of today for all students ages five and older. Four-year-olds in preschool and kindergarten must still wear masks. One problem is that vaccination rates are not consistent across schools and districts. Teachers are not thrilled with the program and want to make sure that in-school and take-home testing continues. I liked the description offered by a fifth grader: "It feels like Covid is kind of over, even though it is not. It feels like everyone just kind of gave up on it." Out of the mouths of babes?

An article in Nature suggests that covid may cause greater loss of grey matter and tissue damage in the brain than naturally occurs. The general implications are not clear; the study was done on people between the ages of 51 and 81. It seems that the shrinkage and tissue damage is primarily in brain areas related to smell. That would be consistent with the number of covid sufferers who report that the sense of smell they lost while having covid never completely returned.

Last but certainly not least, the global death toll is said to have passed six million. That would be the clearly undercounted global death toll. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 211 (711)

As more and more places relax the restrictions put in place to get us through the pandemic, it is good to keep in mind that the end of the pandemic is going to require some adjustment. There really will be a "new" normal. A lot of things will end up being the same as they were in 2019, but a lot of things won't. WHO described the end of the 2009 swine flu pandemic as the "post-pandemic period." There were signs of post-traumatic growth. People grew through adversity and learned to be more resilient. There was, and I can see this one happening again now, a deeper appreciation for everyday things.

The pandemic has expanded our vocabulary of psychological terms. For example, "cave syndrome" refers to the fear of going out among the unvaccinated. I'd rather just stay here in my cave, thank you very much. The "coronaphobic" carries an intense fear of catching the virus. "Covid stress syndrome" refers to the higher levels of general anxiety and depression due to the pandemic; the Covid Stress Scales can be used to assess the level. 

WHO is deliberating on what rules might govern the next pandemic with a target of May 2024. Let's hope we don't need those rules before then. On a much shorter time scale, the CDC is expected to announce new guidance tomorrow including on masks. It's predicted that the CDC will adjust the way it assesses "community levels of disease." Mitigation measures would be proposed tailored to the level of disease in each individual county. 

Around the world, Iceland will lift all remaining restrictions tomorrow including lifting all border measures with no additional restrictions for unvaccinated travelers. Hong Kong is evoking emergency powers to permit doctors and nurses from mainland China to practice in Hong Kong. Anti-vaccine protests in New Zealand continue; acts of protest include tailing the prime minister's van as she visited a preschool. Japan will ease border controls next month. International travelers showing proof of full vaccination will be allowed into the country and will face a shorter quarantine period. WHO is opening a hub in South Korea to train countries to make their own mRNA vaccines. Last but certainly not least, South African data suggests that BA.2 is capable of causing more severe disease than BA.1 Omicron. 

The results of a couple of new polls may or may not be surprising. A Yahoo News/YouGov poll had 46 percent of respondents saying that Americans should "learn to live with" the pandemic "and get back to normal." At the same time, 43 percent think that "we need to do more to vaccinate, wear masks, and test." In a Monmouth University poll, 70 percent agreed with the statement that "it's time we accept Covid is here to stay and we just need to get on with our lives." We will need to learn to live with covid eventually and get back to whatever normal might be. I'm just not sure I, personally, am ready right now. If I were, I would be at a quilt show in Hampton, Virginia, helping a friend run her vendor's booth.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 145 (645)

As European countries put new restrictions in place or tighten the ones already in effect, we in the US are doing very little in terms of trying to slow the pace of Omicron. New York City will announce this week whether they will hold or cancel next week's New Year's Eve celebration in Times Square. The fact that they have noted that it will be outside and allow entry only to vaccinated people leads me to believe it will still be held. Some local governments and private institutions have been putting in place pandemic measures that feel like last year, but it may well be too little even if it's at the right time. Several governors, including one currently testing positive for covid, have said they have no intention of putting restrictions in place again. 

So just how bad are things here? Last week saw a 17 percent increase in covid cases and a nine percent increase in deaths. Descriptors bandied about include "viral blizzard," "winter of severe illness and death," and "extraordinary." Fifty million Americans remain unvaccinated, and it's not at all clear if many or most of those ever will get vaccinated. New cases in New York City are up 60 percent over two weeks. Washington, DC is seeing three times as many new cases daily as at the start of December. POTUS will address the nation tomorrow night. According to his press secretary, he "will announce new steps the Administration is taking to help communities in need of assistance, while also issuing a stark warning of what the winter will look like for Americans that choose to remain unvaccinated."

Not too long ago, the news was that the majority of new cases were in people who had not yet been vaccinated. Reports out of Denmark are that most of the people infected there are fully vaccinated. As for the severity of a case of Omicron, data from Imperial College London found no evidence that Omicron is less severe than Delta based on the proportion of people seeking hospital care after they have been infected. I'll be looking for more detail on that study given how important the results would be. 

Mild or severe illness aside, there are three signs of hope. First, anti-viral drugs are becoming available. These reduce the amount of virus produced in the body and lessen that chance patients will need hospital treatment. Second, cases in South Africa appear to have peaked while early signs are that deaths could be lower than in earlier waves. The caveat is that many South Africans have infection-induced immunity in addition to that induced by vaccines. Finally, Omicron appears much more efficient than Delta in reproducing in bronchial tubes in the upper respiratory tract, where it can be more easily coughed out onto other people. However, it appears far less efficient in spreading to the lungs where it poses the greatest danger to an infected person.

And on a "you have to be kidding, right?" note, this year's flu shot seems to have been poorly matched to the flu strains circulating this season. I'll have a respiratory disease, bartender; make it a double. 

It's clear that we won't be putting in place anything like the restrictions being put in place in Europe. I read that hospitals will be filled to a greater capacity than they were in the spring of 2020. Is it pandemic fatigue that makes people today not see the value in inconvenient-for-a-short-while measures most people accepted at the outset? The less people do to help slow the spread of variants such as Omicron or to help block the development of even more such variants, the longer we may very well be only wishing we could be home for Christmas.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 61 (561)

Not the day I imagined, but it could have been much worse. My schedule's being thrown off course at least gave me the time to make bread. Bagels are coming tomorrow, but possibly not until after breakfast. This way, The Professor can have toast with his fried eggs should that be his breakfast choice. He's even been known to eat toast for dessert.

The US says it has more than 40 million doses of vaccine and is confident there will be enough for adult boosters and young children's first and second shots. Pfizer is just days away from asking for emergency use authorization for its vaccine in children ages five to 11. Let's hope they get it, because nearly 26 percent of covid cases nationwide are reported to be  in children. Over 70 million Americans are still not vaccinated. Low vaccination rates mean that many places are discarding expired doses. Doses unfortunately do not come in single-use sizes, and the vaccines only remain usable for six to 12 hours once a vial is opened. Moderna comes in vials holding 11 to 15 doses; Pfizer vials hold up to six doses; and Johnson & Johnson vials hold five doses. 

Tens of thousands of New York health care workers defied the state's vaccine mandate and were not vaccinated by today. The US Equal Employment Opportunity Commission says that vaccine mandates are legally allowed. What is being contested in two separate lawsuits is the state's refusal to allow religious exemptions. The governor has said that she will call up the National Guard or bring health workers in from Ireland or the Philippines should staffing help be needed. 

Sydney, Australia plans to start to lift covid restrictions in early October if milestones are met in vaccination rates. Should 70 percent of the state's population over the age of 16 be vaccinated by October 11, people will be able to attend weddings, funerals, and small gatherings as well as visit a hairdresser. Should 80 percent be vaccinated by late October, residents will be able to attend larger events and (I absolutely love what comes next) drink standing up in restaurants and bars. Unvaccinated people will still be barred from all these activities but will be able to go to church. More Australians stranded overseas will be able to return as well. By December 1, most venues will reopen, masks will no longer be required indoors, and restrictions on unvaccinated residents will be lifted. Melbourne is set to start to lift its restrictions October 26 when 70 percent of residents over the age of 16 are expected to be fully vaccinated. Nationwide, Australia currently has 41 percent of residents fully vaccinated and 63 percent having had at least one dose.

Nepal is joining the countries discussed in recent days as lifting or lessening restrictions. It began offering visas last week to foreigners landing at the airport in Kathmandu. Vaccinated tourists and those with negative PCR tests will no longer have to quarantine.

A Walmart employee in Louisiana reports that if he asks people to put on a mask or socially distance and they tell the manager, he has to "get coached." Get "coached" too many times, and he could be fired. When asked, a Walmart spokesperson did not dispute this. "Getting coached" fits in well with viewing the current times as something out of a dystopian novel.

The governor gave a briefing this afternoon. The best line was his advice to unvaccinated Virginians: Think how you want your obituary to read.

And that seems like a good place to end today's post.  

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 59 (559)

South Africa's state-owned rail company is going to run a "vaccine train" to get vaccines to people in outlying areas, small towns, and poorer regions.  Only 14 percent of South Africans are fully vaccinated. The train will spend three months traveling through the Eastern Cape province spending two weeks of time in each of seven different stations. The train can carry up to 108,000 doses and has nine coaches including accommodation coaches, kitchen and dining areas, a vaccination area, and consulting rooms. 

El Salvador will be giving boosters to people over the age of 60, frontline health staff, teachers, military, police, firefighters, and people with pre-existing health problems. Panama, Ecuador, and Chile are also giving boosters to at-risk populations. Israel continues to offer boosters to anyone over the age of 12.

Meanwhile, other areas are lifting or loosening restrictions. The Netherlands has had social distancing measures in effect for 18 months; people had to stay 1.5 meters away from each other. This has now been replaced with a health pass plan. Everyone over the age of 13 must show a health pass to enter bars, cafes, restaurants, and cultural venues including theaters. They must show full vaccination, a recent negative test, or a recent recover y from covid. The health minister said the pass requirement would be "as temporary as possible." Norway also no longer requires social distancing. Nightclubs can reopen and restaurants can return to capacity. Nepal will restart issuing tourist visas for vaccinated travelers. Tunisia is lifting a nightly curfew that has been in pace for over a year. 

Is loosening or ending restrictions a good idea? Possibly, but consider the case of the Canadian province of Alberta. Alberta dropped covid restrictions in June and even publicized the slogan "Best Summer Ever, Alberta 2021." Since then, the premier has twice re-imposed different restrictions and has appointed a new health minister. The province is flying patients to hospitals thousands of miles away because there is not room to treat them in Alberta. The nationwide rate for full vaccination in Canada is 69.7 percent. The rate in Alberta is 61.9 percent. It's not the lowest rate in the country, though; that belongs to Saskatchewan.

Finally, I found reference to a country, Peru, that jumped on the ivermectin bandwagon in May 2020, even including it in treatment guidelines. Some evanagelical groups touted it as being equivalent to vaccine. I'm actually surprised it took so long for the idea to travel north to the US, especially given the power of the interwebs.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 491

Consider yourselves warned that today is Monday and on the coming Sunday we will retire to Son #2's cabin for eight days with no wifi and only intermittent cell coverage. I expect that I will do what I did last year and write a daily post while there then post them all when I get back here. Day 500 will happen while we're there, probably with champagne to toast.

Today is being called Freedom Day in Britain as covid restrictions stop, and the prime minister is in quarantine after being exposed to the health minister who has tested positive for covid. Covid case numbers continue to surge, hitting level seen during the January surge. Death and hospitalizations are not up, though, ... or, as Son #2 would add ... yet. The prime minister is in quarantine for 10 days as part of the National Health Service's test, trace, and isolate program, a cell phone app that pings users who have been in close contact with someone who tested positive. The prime minister initially said that he would take part in a pilot program that would let him avoid quarantine, but angry public backlash changed his mind. He said that it is time to move away from government restrictions and to an era of personal responsibility, and that the easing of restrictions was "irreversible." That said, there are already rumors about new restrictions to be put into effect in the fall. Frighteningly, at least to me, the chief scientific adviser has said that 60 percent of covid hospital admissions had received two doses of vaccine. At least in the US, I think they are only counting a case in a fully vaccinated person as a breakthrough infection if the person requires hospitalization.

Singapore saw 163 new covid cases on Monday, the largest daily number since August 2020. One hundred six of the cases were linked to the Jurong Fishery Port while 19 were linked to karaoke bars. The health minister says that the two clusters are linked and that the numbers are likely to rise in the coming days. At least their vaccination campaign is moving faster than most of the other Asian ones with 47 percent of the residents fully vaccinated. Singapore's population is almost six million, and there have been 63,000 cases and 36 deaths.

Canada's vaccination rate is now higher than the US rate. According to the stats in that article, 49 percent of Canadians are fully vaccinated, and 70 percent have gotten at least one dose. The same percents for the US were given as 48 percent full and 55.5 percent with at least one dose. In the EU, 43 percent are fully vaccinated while 55.7 percent have gotten at least one dose. Canada certainly looks like the winner to me. 

News flash! The Olympics have not yet been cancelled or postponed, though 33 staff members or contractors who are Japanese residents working on the Games have tested positive, as has a teenage alternate on the US women's gymnastics team. I'd been wondering what would happen to a team when a member or members tested positive. Athletes who are close contacts of someone who tests positive, such as a teammate, will be allowed to compete if they test negative within six hours of competition. I'm waiting to see if a team will be unable to field enough players to compete. The International Olympic Committee's sports director notes that "there is no such thing as zero risk" and that the Olympic Village would be a "covid-safe environment but not covid free." Speaking of the Olympic Village, there is video of a male gymnast jumping on one of the cardboard beds to show just how strong it is. As for intimacy, the playbook outlining safety measures advises athletes to "avoid unnecessary forms of physical contact such as hugs, high-fives, and handshakes." Over the weekend, 87 percent of Japanese surveyed were worried about Japan's hosting the Games. And Toyota, one of the prime corporate sponsors,, has said that it will not run any Olympic-themed ads during the Games. 

To complicate K-12 school in the fall, the American Academy of Pediatrics recommends that all children over the age of two wear masks when returning to school regardless of their vaccination status. I know parents who are worried that a vaccine might not be available for their children under the age of 12 until early 2022. I wonder what they'll think of this wrinkle.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 457

The novel coronavirus may have arrived in the US much earlier than thought. A new analysis of 24,000 blood samples taken from Americans in early 2020 suggests that the virus was here in December 2019 even if it did not become widespread until February 2020. The antibodies present after a bout of covid-19 can be detected as early as two weeks after infection. Blood samples from nine study participants, five from Illinois and one each from Massachusetts, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin suggested infection earlier than any case ever recorded in the US. One of the subjects from Illinois appears to have been infected as early as Christmas Eve 2019. The study is by no means definitive; it is possible that the antibodies were in reaction to another coronavirus. It is interesting to note that these nine cases did not come from either New York City or Seattle, the places in which covid was initially found. 

New York has lifted most virus rules after 70 percent of the population have gotten at least one dose of vaccine. Governor Cuomo says that this makes possible a "return to life as we know it." Federal restrictions such as masks on public transportation remain in effect. Some 899 people in New York City were evidently vaccinated with expired Pfizer; they have been informed to return for a "real" dose. Vermont has lifted all remaining covid restrictions as it becomes the first state to have at least partially vaccinated 80 percent of its residents. Individual businesses or municipalities can still implement their own rules and, as with New York, federal rules remain in effect. Bringing up the rear in terms of vaccination rates are Mississippi with 35 percent and Alabama and Louisiana with 37 percent each. The champion in the vaccination race is the South Pacific island of Palau where 96 percent of the population has been fully vaccinated. We will get that high a vaccination rate only in our wildest dreams.

The US death toll passed 600,000 sometime around lunchtime today. The US continues to have one of the worst per capita death rates, eclipsed only by Peru, Brazil, Argentina, and Colombia. Vaccination could be a top priority for years to come. 

April's Kumbh Mela festival in India is widely believed to be responsible for the Indian covid surge. Now it appears that some of the private agencies responsible for testing pilgrims forged at least 100,000 out of 400,000 results. The investigation began when a man in a neighboring state received negative test results even though he had never left his home state nor had he been tested for any reason. 

One quarter of almost 2 million covid patients have been found to have new issues. This includes people who had mild or asymptomatic covid. The new issues arise a month or more after infection. The most common new problems are pain, including in nerves and muscles; breathing difficulties; high cholesterol; malaise and fatigue; and high blood pressure. Other issues include intestinal symptoms; migraines; skin problems; heart abnormalities; sleep disorders; and mental health issues such as anxiety and depression. These issues arise in people of all ages, including children. Nearly half of all hospitalized covid patients experience subsequent medical issues, along with 27 percent with mild or moderate symptoms and 19 percent of asymptomatic patients. 

Finally, American Express will allow most employees to work from home for up to two days a week--usually Monday and Friday--permanently. Employees who worked full-time from home before the pandemic can keep doing so. Employees whose jobs cannot be done effectively from home will have to return to the office full-time.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 398

Remember that line from the movie Jaws, the one about needing a bigger boat. Life can be like that sometimes. Like today, when the only slide organization task remaining was sorting and organizing the digital photos, something I decided to do after one play-it-safe trip to the garage to make sure I'd brought all the slides inside. 

Yeah. Right. The task I set for myself today was repairing the disorganization that happened when one of the tray-style boxes got opened while upside-down. I've done that. I've also alerted The Professor that the Girl Scout cookie box labeled "SLIDES TO SORT" contains only slides he shot before we met. They're in little cardboard boxes and do not appear to have been labeled. I told him that I'd scan them to a dedicated memory card which I would then give to him to do with as he pleased. I told him I'd put them into sleeves as I scanned them and have ordered more sleeves to take care of that.

The global death toll from covid has passed three million; this is not an occurrence worthy of celebration. We here in the US have done our share of getting the number that high. We just hit 566,224 deaths out of 31,575,640 cases. On the better side, 22 percent of the US population is fully vaccinated. 

Interestingly, the least vaccinated US counties share a commonality: The residents voted for XPot. Willingness to get vaccinated and actual vaccination rates are lower on average in counties that voted for XPot in November 2020. One county in Wyoming asked the state to stop sending them first doses of vaccine because their freezer was stuffed to capacity. A county in Iowa told people who had volunteered to administer vaccine shots to stay home; they would not be needed. And a county in Pennsylvania got 1,000 doses ready for a drive-through clinic, and only 300 people showed up. Vaccine hesitancy is highest in rural counties with lower income levels and college graduation rates. The vaccine gap is smaller in wealthier counties that voted for XPot, but the partisan gap between vaccine-positive and vaccine-hesitant people holds even after accounting for income, race, age, population density, and the county's covid infection and death rates. 

Covid rates in Canada are edging close to those here in the US. Vaccination rates in Canada, however, lag behind those here. Despite Canada's having enough doses to vaccinate each citizen 10 times, the vaccination rate is nowhere near high enough for them to vaccinate their way out of trouble. They must instead keep people from interacting. Ontario is trying a new lockdown. Police have the power to stop drivers or pedestrians and ask for their address and reason for being outside. Fines up to $600 US can be assessed for failure to comply. Check points have been established on the borders with Manitoba to the west and Quebec to the east; there are no check points (yet) on the border with the US. Restrictions have been placed on playgrounds, camping, and outdoor sports. These restrictions make sense to me as models show that if the current growth in cases were to continue, there would be more than 15,000 new cases per day by June. 

I can't say we're doing great here, though. New cases have risen eight percent from the mean two weeks as states have eased restrictions. We're averaging over 70,000 new cases each day. At least 21 states have seen at least 1 10 percent increase in the number of daily positive cases. At least deaths due to covid are down 12 percent. We're going full-steam on vaccinations at least for those who want them. I just wish we could keep enough restrictions in place to help the vaccines do their job. 

A little humor with which to end. Yoga is banned in public schools in Alabama because Christian groups claim yoga can leave you injured, psychotic, and a Hindu. I don't make this stuff up, I assure you.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 294

A bit of background to yesterday's news that I found the errant kindle. I had to work my way through several horizontal layers of boxes in the basement to get to a box labeled "kitchen desk." Since that was the usual location of my kindle when it was not in use, I was optimistic I might find it there, and, indeed, I did. I also found my Amazon fire tablet that can act as a kindle as can my iPhone. Since I broke down and bought a refurbished replacement kindle, I am sufficiently kindled for the rest of this pandemic not to mention the next.

We're 42 weeks along our wayward path through the pandemic. We're also at (I-17) days and counting or just 17 days from Uncle Joe's inauguration. First, though, we have to get through Wednesday's Congressional certification of the results of the Electoral College votes. Most years this is a fairly ceremonial thing, and many members of Congress don't bother to attend. This year will be quite different. Republican Senators are lining up behind Ted Cruz getting ready to challenge the results of at least some states along with some 140 of their counterparts in the House of Representatives. From  what I read of the procedure to be followed, it sounds as if challenges can be made to each state as its results are presented. Once a state is challenged, the Senate moves back to their chamber, after which each house has two hours in which to debate the challenge at which point they reconvene in the House chamber. Even if there are only challenges lodged against Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Florida, and Nevada, it could well take into the wee hours of the next morning for things to be wrapped up. Everything I've read claims that there is no way Uncle Joe's election will not be certified. I just hope I don't have to stay up to find out.

The Gallup folks just announced that The Lame Duck was 2020's "most admired man." Michelle Obama was the "most admired woman" for the third year in a row. How some people can admire The Lame Duck is beyond me. I could see him getting distinction for being the most newsworthy man, but admired? Puh-lease. Somewhat related, The Duck is said to be angry that no fashion magazine put Melania  on its cover during her four years as first lady. 

The numbers of covid-19 cases and deaths continue to rise. The total number of cases a day or two ago was 20,427,780, 2,574,049 of them in the preceding two weeks. Can 30 million be that far away? The 32,518 covid-19 deaths in the last two weeks contributed bigly to the 350,186 total deaths. It will be a while until we hit 400,000 deaths, but that number is on the horizon. 

This morning's Guardian laid out just what the UK's "Tier 4" restrictions are. Nonessential shops, hairdressers, and leisure or entertainment venues are closed. No travel with the exception of education, childcare, or exercise. One may also travel to work if it is not possible to work from home. Households cannot mix, but one person can meet one other person outdoors in a public place. Support bubbles and childcare are exempt from this restriction. Clinically extremely vulnerable people should not go to work and should limit the time spent outside the home. Finally, residents must not stay away overnight, and cannot travel abroad. I cannot imagine the reaction to those restrictions here in the US of A. It might help but only a wee bit in the US that nowhere in those restrictions is there mention of wearing masks. Perhaps it's assumed that masks will be work outside the home. 

As the owner and occasional wearer of an inflatable, air-powered tyrannosaurus rex costume, I wish the following item were funny rather than sobering. A hospital in California say that a staff member wearing an inflatable, air-powered costume for a short time on Christmas Day may have sickened about four dozen other staffers. Such costumes have now been banned. There was no mention of what type of costume it was, though I'm hoping it might have been Santa Claus rather than a rex.

I don't know if my final item qualifies as "funny" as much as it is just plain "unusual." A small item on page A2 of this morning's Washington Post reported that a vessel carrying 20 people had disappeared between Bimini in the Bahamas and Lake Worth. I'm assuming that Lake Worth is in Florida, but either way the vessel vanished in the area known as the Bermuda Triangle. I had not thought about the Bermuda Triangle in years. The triangle is some 500,000 square miles of ocean between Bermuda, Miami, and Puerto Rico. Many vessels go into the Triangle and are never heard from again. One school of thought is that this is because there is so much air traffic over and boat traffic in the Triangle that of course a large number of disappearances is to be expected. The other school of thought has unknown forces at work. I said I had not thought of the Bermuda Triangle in years. I wonder if that is because there is less attention paid to such anomalies now or if the attention is there and I am not paying it.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 270

First, the good news. The Professor's covid-19 test came up negative! Needless to say, we were both very pleased. I did not jump up and down but only because he yelled the news to me as I was trying to fall asleep. We are staying apart for a couple more days just in case and to meet CDC guidance.

So The Lame Duck wanted to Make America Great Again. Usually "great" would mean the best (remember the "America First" inaugural address?) or first place. The other day, The Duck said things were going "incredibly." Was he celebrating that the US has 20 percent of the world's covid-19 deaths. We certainly don't have 20 percent of the world's population living here. As for how many deaths that 20 percent might be, it's probably going to hit 300,000 in the next week. Over 3,000 people died from covid-19 here yesterday. New cases? Yeah, we're doing our best to lead there as well. We had over 222,000 new cases yesterday. The total number of cases is around 15.5 million. Do I hear 16? Give it two days, three is we're lucky.

Virginia numbers continue to rise. We're seeing nearly 3,800 new cases per day here, and the percent positivity continues to climb. It's at 11 percent now. The governor had a briefing this afternoon. After briefly discussing the rising numbers, he announced the state's new or revised measures to deal with the increases, not that they really will deal with the increases. I think I mentioned yesterday the 10:00 pm to 5:00 am curfew in North Carolina. As of 12:01 am Monday, Virginia will have a midnight to 5:00 am curfew, with the only travel allowed being to or from work. That might mean something in terms of students at the local university, but they've all gone home and won't reappear until February 1, 2021.

Masks will be required for everybody even indoors. The police aren't going to break your door down and give you a ticket for not wearing a mask, but everyone in a grocery or department store must be wearing a mask. Masks are required outdoors if it is not possible to stay more than six feet apart. Since I don't go out, I have no idea what percent of people now might be wearing or not wearing masks in public. I do see news photos showing people walking together not wearing masks. If they actually enforce that, it might do a bit of good. 

Social gatherings were limited to 25 people before Thanksgiving. As of Monday, that limit will be 10. While this might mean something if an office is planning a holiday lunch for 20 at a local restaurant, the same 20 people could go to a party at someone's house with no chance of being "caught." It's nice in theory, but I'm not sure how much it will help in practice. And religious institutions are exempt from these limits.

Finally, they've changed crowd size rules for "recreational sports." I'm assuming that the "recreational" means things such as kids' soccer or intramural softball. The limits will be 25 people per "field" for sports held indoors. For outdoor sports, the limit will be two people per participant. The governor suggested that basketball games be played on a playground instead of in a gym; depending on the sport, more spectators might be possible outdoors as opposed to indoors. 

When I emailed Son #1 about the governor's actions, I told him I did not know whether these probably-won't-do-anything changes made me angry or sad. I seem to be alternating between the two lately. Angry that so many people are putting the lives of other people in danger, but at the same time sad that so many people are dying. It does not have to be this way. I read yesterday that half of Americans said they would not get vaccinated against covid-19. Again, I'm angry that half of Americans are idiots--I should not say that, but it is what popped into my head. More politely, I'm angry that the half of Americans who won't get vaccinated will prevent the development of any herd immunity. And, again, I'm sad that so many families will lose beloved members and probably not have the opportunity to say goodbye before they go. 

The View from the Hermitage, Day 192

On this morning's walk, I thought about how the news has changed during the last six months. When I started daily blogging 192 days ago, the novel coronavirus was often the only topic on the front page of The Washington Post. It sometimes seemed to be the only topic covered on the NBC Nightly News (the network whose news we watch since it immediately follows the local news we watch). As that wore off, we read or watched about George Floyd, then Breonna Taylor, sequeing into Black Lives Matter in all-the-news all-the-time mode. The Western wildfires might have been the only news of the day, but there's an election about to happen. I expect we won't hear much about anything else for the next month or two. We might have distractions in terms of the sports happening or not, but those won't be on the front page or on the nightly national news. 

Dr. Fauci was asked about places we should not be going right now. He cited restaurants, bars, and gyms. I might have thought airplanes would be on the list, but they probably rank lower because a much smaller percentage of people will travel by air than want to eat out. I would not want to go to a movie theater right now, and it seems a whole lot of people feel the same way. I wonder if the coronavirus along with the growing popularity of streaming videos will permanently alter theater attendance. I don't think any of our mutual funds contain studio or theater stocks.

On the home front, yet another first-year dorm at the local university has students testing positive for covid-19. Last night, the university put up on social media (but did not send out via email) the president announcing tightened restrictions to start at 9:00 am this morning. The maximum group size has gone from 50 to 5 for indoor or outdoor activities. Students are encouraged (I don't know how they would require this) not to leave town nor have visitors from out of town. These will be in effect for at least two weeks. The comment I haven't figured out was that some students have already been put on interim suspension due to violations of covid-19 mitigation measures. What the hell is an "interim" suspension? How can you suspend someone temporarily? Is it keeping them from attending class for long enough that they will fail all their courses? Is it temporary in that it's for one semester only as opposed to being expelled forever and ever amen? If I learn what they mean or figure it out on my own, I'll let you know.

The university president said in his remarks that what has happened so far is what they expected would happen, that none of what has happened has surprised them. So did they know they were going to have to resort to more restrictive measures three or four weeks in? If so, why did they just not put them in effect at the outset and possibly keep the number of positive cases lower? And why post only on social media? I expect that kept a lot of faculty from learning about it until after it had gone into effect this morning.

Finally, the overall university numbers look good--emphasis on "look." They only include tests done at the university, which is likely why the positive tests that came out of the athletics department have not yet been added. They may very well have been done by an outside lab contracted by athletics. I see the exclusion of all non-university tests as a major flaw in what is being shown. The numbers given do not provide an accurate representation of covid-19 at the university.

I wonder if the local news tonight will include how the first day of the new restrictions went....