The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 226 (726)

Happy Second Anniversary, Novel Coronavirus Pandemic! The traditional second anniversary gift is cotton. The modern one is, interestingly, china. Some sources say that WHO was slow to declare the pandemic. WHO counters that it declared the pandemic because so many countries were not taking seriously its earlier declaration of a public health emergency. On the day WHO declared the pandemic, there were over 120,000 cases in 114 countries, and there had been around 4,300 deaths globally. There were 1,263 cases identified in the US, along with 37 deaths. On the second anniversary, the "official" death toll is six million; looking at "excess deaths," though, suggests that 18 million is a better estimate.

As for an end to the pandemic, WHO has not specified any target thresholds. Pandemics generally don't end uniformly but end region by region. Considering past pandemics does reveal some recurring themes. A pandemic does not end suddenly; the end is a process not a product, and can take more time than might be thought. As Omicron lessens in the Western world, cases are still going up in areas of Asia. There is not just one end. The medical end occurs as the disease recedes. The end to a government's preventive measures marks the political end. Finally, there is a social or psychological end, marking when people move on from the pandemic's effect on them and their habits. 

WHO may have been slow to declare the pandemic's start, but it now cautions that many countries are treating the pandemic as over and letting down their guard too soon. As one public health expert put it, "This virus has fooled us every time." Still, only two percent of Americans now live in counties where the CDC still recommends universal indoor masking. Will there be a new variant to change that statistic? Quite possibly. Will we see it coming? We should hope so. I have drawn back from the matter-of-fact statement that we're fucked, which is not to say we can't take a step backwards. 

Let's leave the last word from the same official who declared the start two years ago, the WHO director:

 "The pandemic is far from over, and it will not be over anywhere until it's over everywhere."