The View from the Hermitage, Day 350

Two weeks to go to the one-year mark! Champagne may be in order then. We do have a bottle left over from the election and impeachment. I'm getting more confident daily that I will not be hitting the two-year mark, though I have been wrong about various things as I've stumbled through the pandemic. I do hope I'm not wrong on this one. 

I read a report this morning that generated a huge "Du-uh." (The two syllables are intentional.) People are less likely to adhere to lockdown rules after they have been vaccinated. Given how many don't adhere to such rules before they are vaccinated, is it really surprising that another sizable group of people don't after a vaccination? I plan to wait at least the suggested two weeks after the final dose (or only if I happen to get the Johnson & Johnson vaccine) and then give careful thought to anything I change about the way I've been living the past now 50 weeks. I have a couple of close friends who have already gotten both shots, and I could see having a still somewhat distanced coffee or lunch with them one by one.

Nine percent of Americans have been fully vaccinated, which seems to me to be a very good start. In 2019, the WHO ranked vaccine hesitancy as one of the leading global health threats. I'm not counting on herd immunity until we get there, if we do. Unfortunately, I can see all too well a large enough number of people not getting vaccinated to perhaps get us to the edge of herd immunity but not over the top.

Looking for a book for The Professor, I came across something I had actually forgotten I had. We lived in the Netherlands from August 1989 to August 1990, while The Professor was one sabbatical at a nuclear physics lab in Amsterdam. I found the journal in which I jotted down quotes I found, wrote the odd quote of my own, and taped various articles I'd found, most of which came from The International Herald Tribune. The volume is dated 1990, and the quotes and articles are, for the most part, dated 1990. There are some dated 1989, though I obviously had saved those when they first appeared. My comment on January 4, 1990, seems oddly pertinent to being on day 350 of this pandemic blog:

It's not hard to write something every day if your standards are low enough.

Time to fix Mongolian beef, something I would not have made were it not for the pandemic.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 349

I read this morning that child mental health is a growing concern in Germany. One in three kids is suffering from pandemic-related anxiety or depression or is exhibiting psychosomatic symptoms such as headaches or stomach aches. Reading that took me back thirty years to when Son #1 was three and in preschool. The preceding summer of 1990 had seen Iraq under Saddam Hussein invade Kuwait. Early in 1991, what had begun in August as Operation Desert Shield became Operation Desert Storm with the start of offensive action by the US and allies. 

We have always let our kids watch, listen to, or read news reports. Even at the age of three, Son #1 knew that one country had invaded another country and our country was helping to defend the invaded country and, as Desert Storm began, to fight back to kick the invading country out. Several other parents took issue with the fact Son #1 had been briefing the other kids on troop movements, drawing a diagram to show them a flanking movement. No other kids even knew a "war" albeit a minor one was happening.

I wonder, even with the 20/20 hindsight, how we might have explained the pandemic to a three-year-old Son #1. The Professor said he had no idea, so I asked Son #1 what he thought about how to explain the pandemic to a three-year-old. He said that kids that young did have experience with illness. "You can't go to preschool today; you're running a fever." "You have a cold." Some illnesses are worse than others, and there are ways to protect yourself and others from those illnesses, such as wearing masks or not hugging. (He had two Japanese kids in his kindergarten class who did wear masks to school from time to time.) 

Of course, knowing Son #1 so well, he would have also taken in such things as spike proteins and mRNA vaccines and, yeah, it's a good thing his preschool would have closed down because I would have been in such trouble with the other parents. 

Once again, I am glad my children made it to adulthood and out on their own.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 348

The New York Times interviewed 21 scientists about the pandemic. All were optimistic that the worst is behind us and life may begin to seem normal this summer. At the same time, though, they were worried about people getting complacent. It seems that the greatest threat to getting back to normal is human behavior. As one biologist noted, the single biggest lesson he'd learned is that epidemiological modeling struggles with dependence on human behavior. In the long term, will the virus ever be behind us? Every expert said no, that the virus will continue to pop up in clusters but might develop into an infection similar to a common cold.

The number of new covid-19 cases is down 35 percent over the past two weeks. Deaths are down 16 percent, though there were still 3,210 deaths on Wednesday. Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch notes, "Taking the first  hint of a downward trend as a reason to reopen is how you get to even higher numbers." In that vein, the local university has loosened most of the restrictions they put in place following several days of too high case numbers. The new, more relaxed restrictions take effect immediately. I'm thinking there will be multiple frat parties tonight though behind closed doors as much as possible. Rhode Island offers an illustrative case. In late November, in response to higher case numbers, the state put limits on social gatherings and businesses. Eight days later, case numbers began to decline. On December 20, the November restrictions were lifted. Guess what. Eight days later, the downward trend reversed. After writing the above, I saw a report that the CDC director warned governors not to get impatient, saying, "Things are tenuous. Now is not the time to relax restrictions." It's gonna get interesting.

One complicating factor is that young people have been driving the spread of the virus, and most young people will not get vaccinated for months. Before variants were discovered, some scientists estimated that 1,000,000 Americans vaccinated daily would limit the magnitude of any fourth wave. The variants have changed that. The California variant in particular may be deadlier, more transmissible, and more resistant to vaccines. A scientist at the University of California San Francisco noted that "the devil is already here." The California variant has multiple mutations, including four that have not been seen in the other variants. Three of those four are changes to the spike protein, which can be particularly nasty. On the good side, though the California variant may be somewhat vaccine-resistant, it gives slightly better odds than the South African variant. 

People appear to be getting less resistant to being vaccinated. A recent survey showed 55 percent of adults had either gotten at least one vaccine shot or wanted to get one. This was up from 47 percent in mid-January and 34 percent in early December. Those percents won't get us even close to herd immunity, but they're trending in the right direction.

And some people, it appears, will go to great lengths to get vaccinated. The head of Canada's largest pension fund has resigned after traveling to Dubai for a dose of vaccine. He's still there actually, staying until he can get his second shot. It is not clear how he managed to get a shot there. He is a British citizen with no clear ties to the UAE. He said that there were reasons he went this route to get vaccinated, but he did not elaborate. 

Between Facebook and email lists, I am seeing more and more of my friends getting their first or second dose of vaccine. So far I have not encountered an anti-vaxxer in my not-so-large pool of friends and acquaintances. I'm not sure how I would react if someone did tell me they were declining to get vaccinated. They would have to tell me via phone, computer, or paper because those are the only ways in which I "see" other people right now. I can think of a couple of acquaintances who might decline to be vaccinated, but I am not going to ask them about it. None of them are local, so the chances I would run into them in person are slim.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 347

I can't say if Tiger Woods was the lead story this morning since CNN's New Day was already in progress when The Professor turned on the TV for background while he did some morning stretching. Woods was the above-the-fold highlight in the Sports section of this morning's Washington Post. Once the media rush over the accident and his injuries has cooled off, the PGA is going to be in trouble at least as far as its television audience goes. Go they will without Tiger Woods to watch. Ratings go down when he is not playing or otherwise involved in a tournament. My mom, for example, will watch any tournament in which Tiger is playing, but is pretty lackadaisical about any other tournament, though she is now developing an interest in a couple other golfers.

The World Health Organization's COVAX program has begun shipping vaccines to developing nations. Ghana yesterday received 600,000 Astra-Zeneca shots. Obviously this will not be enough even for everyone, but it is a start. Here's hoping the deliveries grow and proceed smoothly.

On the variant front, a not-yet-peer-reviewed paper calls the recently discovered California variant "a variant of concern warranting urgent follow-up investigation." The variant is not dominant in California, making up over half the cases in 44 counties. A variant discovered in New York also merits further investigation after claims that it might weaken vaccine effectiveness. We must not get complacent and forget that viruses are a formidable opponent.

An interesting age effect has been found in children infected by the coronavirus. Children ages 6 to 12 are more likely to get Multi-system Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C). Children under 6 or over 12 are more likely to get acute covid-19 without any MIS-C. I last had biology or health classes in high school, but I wonder with no foundation if it's a hormonal thing. So many other physical differences tied to age are, that it seems logical that could be the case here. 

I recently canceled our family membership in one of the local fitness centers. We had not been there since the pandemic kicked off in March 2020 but have been paying the membership fees to keep employees we knew there employed. Neither The Professor nor I will feel comfortable in a gym for some time (years?) to come, so I pulled the cancellation plug. This morning I read an article about covid transmission at gyms. Fitness center outbreaks in both Chicago and Honolulu have been linked to carelessness about masks and symptoms. One example, from Honolulu, is frighteningly illustrative. A 37-year-old fitness instructor ended up linked to 21 infections. Hours before his symptoms first appeared, he taught a spin class to 10 people. Neither he nor the students wore masks. All 10 were infected, and one had to be hospitalized. Among the 10 was a  46-year-old man who worked as a fitness instructor elsewhere. Twelve hours before he tested positive, he led several small kickboxing sessions with a total of 11 people. Ten of those people got covid-19, with one going to intensive care. It probably comes as no surprise that masks are now required while exercising. 

On the whole, though, numbers are tending better. In general, they're back to what they were before Thanksgiving and the multi-holiday surges. Only four states--Idaho, New Hampshire, Washington, and Wyoming--saw case increases in the past week. And probably because of masking, distancing, and hand-washing, this is turning out to be the lowest influenza season in 25 years. Thanks to a worse virus, our yearly viral visitor is getting stomped.

Finally, in the interest of health, it is now possible to get performance beer. Yes, beer with added electrolytes is now being marketed.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 346

What could knock the pandemic and politics off the front page? Tiger Woods. CNN's New Day this morning led with the Woods story in a feature that lasted a nontrivial amount of time. Perhaps it was their way of fighting pandemic fatigue or political overload. The accident was certainly a newsworthy event, but I think they may have overdone it a bit. I have to say that his career as a professional golfer may well be over. Yes, he came back from playing 18 holes on a broken leg (two stress fractures) as well as from various back issues, but this may be too much for him at age 45 or thereabouts to overcome. He does have mental strength going for him. He, as most athletes of his caliber, knows his body intimately and what it is capable of doing. Will he push himself too hard? Probably at least once, but that's to be expected. I wonder if it will be the lead story again tomorrow. 

The governor is relaxing some of the restrictions he imposed to deal with the post-holiday surges in covid case numbers. He's getting rid of the midnight to 5:00 am stay-at-home curfew and letting bars and restaurants sell alcohol until midnight, when they must close. Outdoor gatherings can now have up to 25 people; indoor gatherings will stay at 10. Outdoor venues can now have 1,000 people or 30 percent of the capacity, whichever is less. These are go into effect March 1 and will stay in effect for a month. If things have continued to improve, they'll be lessened even more. 

The FDA says that the Johnson & Johnson one-shot vaccine was safe and effective  in trials; the drug may be approved for use as early as next week. Its percent effectiveness is a bit lower than the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines currently being given, but it is 85 percent effective at preventing severe cases of covid-19. Perhaps just as important if not more, it can be stored under common refrigeration. It will not require a freezer of any kind. 

The local university is not having its usual week-long spring break; it is instead giving four single-day breaks spread throughout the semester. I know of several other universities doing the same. Still, there is concern over spring break and whether beaches could turn out to be super-spreaders. I would say that there is no wondering needed; if young people gather in the numbers they usually do, there will be super-spreading going on. Apart from spring break, there is concern that variants could lead to another surge in the coming weeks. We're not out of the covid woods yet and won't be for some time, especially not if don't start getting vaccines to developing countries. I don't even want to think about the US turning into a fortress to keep the unvaccinated masses at  bay. 

Other randomosities I found interesting. Someone is marketing a Ted Cruz pinata. (I'm sure someone can comment on how to type a n with a tilde.) The University of Michigan shut down a campus library for two days after discovering venomous Mediterranean recluse spiders in the basement. These spiders are cousins of the brown recluse spiders we have around here but even more reclusive. The university now says it over-reacted and closing the building was not necessary. The Perseverance rover's parachute contained a secret message written in binary code: Dare mighty things. A Czech free diver set a new record by swimming 266 feet under ice, holding his breath for 2 minutes and 42 seconds. He did this wearing only swim trunks and goggles. Since I know you're wondering, the water was 37F.

Finally, I found another pandemic recipe to add to the regular rotation. I made Oven-Roasted Asparagus last night to go with broiled salmon and rice. The link will take you to the recipe. If you like asparagus and are not allergic to garlic, you'll probably like this recipe. (It could easily be made without garlic.)

The View from the Hermitage, Day 345

It's a happy 36th anniversary for the Professor and me, and it's almost as warm as it was on the Saturday 36 years ago. We ended up having an outdoor wedding reception. The photos from the reception are puzzling. No jackets and lots of rolled-up sleeves. It then hits you that there is not one leaf on any tree and the grass is brown. The temperature in Dallas, Texas this afternoon is or was 75F, only 77F warmer than it was a week ago.

I just came in from a short walk with The Family Dog; I'm actually surprised that she wanted to turn around as soon as she did. The rain seems to have washed away the scent from her rodent hunting grounds, so she did not stop there this morning. She's raising her standards and next wants to catch one of the squirrels who taunt her daily.

Random pandemic happenings include Dr. Fauci commenting that "we've done worse that most any other country." That's likely something he wanted to say all along but had to wait until after January 20. England's chief medical officer says that covid will likely be a problem "for the next few winters." That's fine by me if the vaccines become as widespread as the flu ones are. Japan has responded to a rising suicide rate by naming a minister for loneliness. I'd love to see the job description for that as well as how they will evaluate the minister's success. Does the suicide rate have to go down to a certain point? 

Moving to Europe, covid has inspired 1,200 new German words. A team of three people at the Leibniz Institute for the German Language goes through media every year to find words that have come into use. This year's crop includes ones meaning or reflecting "tired of covid-19," "corona hairstyle," "corona angst," "envy of those vaccinated," "cuddle contact," and "distance beer." I've been trying to come up with new pandemic-inspired English words but so far have not thought of any. If you know of some, please leave them in the comments.

POTUS gave brief remarks last night in response to the country's passing the 500,000 deaths mark. He advised against becoming numb to the sorrow of covid. Have we already become numb? Is that why the local university in three weeks has recorded 70 more positive student cases than it did in the entire fall semester? Is pandemic fatigue numbing us? Do we just hang loose until vaccinations become widespread enough to start having a real effect? Do we just ignore the deaths that happen in the time that takes?

I wrestled mightily with Son #2's quilt repair today until I had to take a break or break down. I think more about that than the pandemic some days. I remind myself that the quilt is very special to him and that the repairs matter more than they esthetics. It is not an heirloom to be kept and passed on, but a lovey to keep and wear out a second time. It will be there tomorrow when I hope to be in a calmer, better mood. 

Let's close on the note that Peloton has brought out a "cheaper" treadmill. How does Peloton define "cheaper"? It only costs $2,500.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 344

We've hit the magic half million deaths from covid-19. Given that we are surely under-counting cases and deaths, we really hit the mark some time ago, but I'll stick to what is known. This morning's Washington Post offered three ways in which to visualize just how large 500,000 is. I like the one showing how large a monument analogous to that for Vietnam War deaths would be; to see it, you have to scroll past 61 of the 9,804 tour buses it would take to hold 500,000 tourists. It is also thought-provoking to consider how quickly we got to this milestone. We hit the 100,000 mark in May 2020 and the 200,000 mark in September 2020. Then things sped up with 300,000 reached in December 2020; 4,000, in January 2021; and 500,000 just one month later or now. If cases were not slowing down to the extent they are, I'd propose a family pool on when we will hit 1,000,000 deaths. (We're actually doing one on when the first student at the local university dies from covid-19.)

There was a column in this morning's Guardian asking a reader to consider life as it was a year ago and then reflect on what he or she missed. It was a harder exercise than I thought it would be. Some things that immediately jumped to mind as being missed, when given thought, dropped off the list or became more specific. "Coffee or a meal with friends" became "coffee or a meal with (insert names here)." I do miss seeing my mom on a regular basis. I think about her a lot and wonder how she's doing and how that fits with how she tells me she's doing. I do miss travel. I miss the ability to take a winter holiday far enough north to see the aurora, or a trip to Maine to see my brother and good friends, or a grand adventure to somewhere The Professor and I have never been. I miss the ability to call for a medical appointment I can keep; my last foray into the world of medicine was a mammogram on March 17, 2020. I do miss regular hair appointments and the occasional pedicure. I was getting manicures as well pre-pandemic, but I can't say I've missed those. Maybe that's an average number of things missed; I don't know how many things other people say they have missed. 

At the juncture of psychology and politics are the results of a Cambridge University study published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B reporting that people with extremist attitudes tend to view the world in black and white and struggle with complex tasks that require intricate mental steps. They are also not good at regulating emotion, acting more impulsively and seeking out "emotionally evocative experiences." Finally, participants prone to dogmatism actually have problems with processing evidence even at a perceptual level. The black and white versus shades of grey difference makes sense to me. I'm still thinking about the part about regulating emotion. I know some pretty liberal (for lack of a better word to be the opposite of extremist) who seem to seek out "emotionally evocative experiences." And I need a bit more detail about what it means to process evidence at a perceptual level. 

Finally, and totally not related to anything else in this post, a shipment of breakfast cereal being shipped from South America to Hong Kong was seized after the discovery that the sugar coating on the cereal was not sugar but cocaine. The article listed some other creative ways in which cocaine has been transported including under wigs or under the habits of fake nuns, in hollowed out pineapples, and my personal favorite, in fake buttocks. Of course, since thinking that I have been unable to un-think of the Sir Mix-a-Lot song "Baby Got Back." I hope I have not just given you my earworm.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 343

I am closing in on the one-year mark here at the start of the 49th week. I naively never thought I'd be at this a whole year down the road. My conception of time may never revert to what it was. I talk about things happening in or awaiting some year down the road, but it's without any feeling for how long in the future that might be. Time has morphed from something point-to-point to something more like a cloud. Somewhere out there is an event, but it's floating around. Dr. Fauci said today that we may still need to wear masks in 2022, and 2022 did not seem like "next year" or only 10 months away. It's another cloud sitting somewhere out there.

As an update to yesterday's adventures in rodent hunting, The Family Dog has, on every walk since, stopped at yesterday's bush in search of another small rodent. She also checks out the spot on the other side of the road at which she dispatched yesterday's catch. It will be interesting to see how long this lasts. I wonder if snow or rain will play with the scents enough that she decides stopping is no longer worth it. 

Total covid-19 cases globally are now over 110,000,000; deaths are approaching 2,500,000. In the neighborhood of 205,000,000 people have received at least one dose of vaccine. Vaccine rollout in the US is one of the best in the world. Twelve percent of the population has gotten at least the first dose. Other countries with higher percentages are Israel, Seychelles, the UAE, the UK, and Bahrain. We might want to start thinking about helping the 130 countries that have yet to receive any vaccine for their citizens. If we want to reach global herd immunity, all the countries arriving there at the same time would be helpful.  

They're called "long haulers" here in the US, individuals whose covid-19 symptoms linger for months or longer. The condition more generally is called "long covid" and its ongoing symptoms are very similar to those experienced by survivors of Ebola and chikungunya, a virus spread by mosquitos. Those symptoms include joint pain and failure, cognitive problems including migraines, and fatigue. Inflammation is suspected as part of the cause, though what causes the inflammation is not clear. The immune system can be finicky, helping to heal us even unless it decides we are the problem and attacks the person and not the ailment. 

Study is being given to the "boredom economy" created by pandemic lockdowns, how we are coping with what one source called our "collective sense of ennui." Should we still be employed and immune to financial issues, we have been investing in such things and activities as bread-making, gardening, home improvement, and jigsaw puzzles. We have also invested in alcohol; sales have soared during the pandemic, something to which I can personally attest. Interestingly, the long-term and more intense boredom could lead both individuals and businesses to become more creative. We think differently when we have more time to think. 

Besides its significant effect on the K-12 education kids are getting, the pandemic has also significanly altered the college selection and admission process. More and more colleges and universities, including the Ivy League and other "prestigious" schools, are not currently requiring standardized test scores as part of an application. Such schools are seeing surges in applications. Cornell University received 17,000 more applications than usual. Applications to Penn State are up 11 percent; for Harvard, 42 percent; and for Colgate University, 103 percent. Students are more willing to take a chance on admission if they don't have to submit test scores. On the flip side, though, smaller and/or less recognizable schools are losing students and their tuition dollars, leading some to cut programs, or people, or even close.

I'm going to have to give some thought to our "collective sense of ennui." What have I changed to cope with pandemic boredom? Or am I just doing more of the same I did in the pre-covid days? I wonder...

The View from the Hermitage, Day 342

Son #1 informed me that the picture below and the accompanying story should be the headline item in today's blog post. Because I've been busy accomplishing things all day today, it will actually be the only thing in today's blog post. 

When Son #1 and I took The Family Dog (shown above) on her post-breakfast walk, she decided to get a little hunting in. We were on our way back from the road to which we usually walk her when something in a bush beside the road caught her attention. She sniffed and pounced and sniffed and pounced again. Eventually, a rather large mouse or perhaps a small rat scurried out and tried to cross the road. The Family Dog gave chase, caught it right as it reached the other side of the road, and quickly dispatched it with a chomp to its spine. She then sat and looked at us somewhat proudly. She was a wee bit protective of the body for a few minutes but eventually let us pick it up and carry it home for a photo op. It is now in the freezer in the garage awaiting the day when I get one or both of The Sons here to do a taxidermy session with me. I have a book that gives instructions for taxidermying a mouse. Son #2 gave me all the tools I need for my birthday or Mother's Day and said he and Son #1 would do it with me using the frozen rats he gets for his snakes.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 341

Ted Cruz went to Cancun with his family while his neighbors in Texas lacked power, water, and a very basic quality of life. When he saw the bad press his trip had engendered, he went back to Texas several days early. The explanation he gave should lead to more bad press. Since school had been cancelled, his daughters decided they wanted to go to Cancun with friends. As their dad, he figured he should take them down there. I gather that his wife is on the board of Goldman Sachs or another Wall Street firm, making the cost of this escapade a non-factor. I wonder how many of the folks who voted for him could just pop off to a resort at the drop of a school day. 

At the same time, there are three governors in how water over matters related to the novel coronavirus. Andrew Cuomo of New York continues to wade through the controversy over covid-19 nursing home deaths and how they were counted or reported. I'm not sure if that's better or worse than Ron Desantis of Florida who allowed a popup vaccination site that served affluent zip codes. And in California, we have Gavin Newsom, who attended a party at a fancy restaurant while his restrictive stay-at-home orders were still in effect. Just to be fair about this, Cuomo and Newsom are Democrats, while Desantis is a Republican. So is Ted Cruz, so I guess the parties are tied at "Really? Come on! Really?" behavior.

Of course, the question of haves and have nots applies to countries as well as individuals. Ten countries have given 75 percent of the world's available covid vaccine supply. At the same time, over 130 countries have yet to get their first doses. I read a series of posts today on one of the local nextdoor groups that started with someone complaining about vaccine availability. One of the people responding said that she, too, had been upset until it made her realize that she was and always had been a "have." She had a good family, education, opportunities that many other people did not. The fact that she is finally experiencing being a "have not" had been enlightening. She would transform back into a "have" after being vaccinated but so many other people would continue to be "have nots." Philosophical food for thought there.

While I'm on the topic of vaccine availability, two women in Florida, ages 34 and 44, dressed as elderly women to get vaccinated. Their disguises worked for the first shot, but not for the second. No mention was given of whether they were given the shot anyway or if they were going to have to wait. I would have made them wait., but not so long that the first vaccine was wasted by the second's not coming soo enough after.

A couple of interesting items I saw while trolling the news this morning. Dolly Parton declined the offer to put a statue of her in the Tennessee capitol. Tim Tebow is retiring from professional baseball. And promotions for two female generals in the Army were delayed over fears that Xpot would bypass them effectively ending their military careers. Recommendations for their promotions are not going to the White House. Better late than never, and a sign that the Secretary of Defense and the Secretary of the Army had some sense even as they served under Xpot. Finally, six US Capitol Police officers have been suspended with pay and 29 others are under investigation over their actions in the January 6 insurrection.

I could have made Son #2 a new quilt in the time and frustration it is taking to repair his decades-old one. But the extent of the repairs I am making is evidence of how much has has loved this quilt for those decades. This was one of the first quilts I made after taking a class from the adult education division of the local school system. I knew nothing about anything quilt-related then and did not purchase the highest quality fabric. One in particular starts to tear and disappear if I look at it wrong. I am going to have to add some new, similar fabric to fix some pieces of that fabric. I can't wait to see his reaction when he gets it back as a birthday present.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 340

Remember the number of new student covid cases that had not been posted yesterday by the local university? It was eventually posted and was almost twice the 117 recorded the day before. There were 229 new student cases on Tuesday and another 168 yesterday. The kids are knocking it out of the park this semester! It seems that someone in the administration told the fraternities that they could have in-person rush if they followed the mitigation measures in effect at that time. Judging by comments and photos posted on the UVA subreddit, it was damn the mitigation and full party ahead. 

The CDC announced that life expectancy in the US dropped one year during the first half of 2020. The last drop this large was in WWII. Perhaps more disturbing, life expectancy for Hispanics dropped two years, while that for Black Americans dropped three years. 2020 was the deadliest year in US history. For the first time, more there were more than 3 million deaths. 

The oh-so-weird weather is wreaking havoc with vaccine distribution in the US, but we are still better off than the 130 countries that, according to the UN, have yet to get one single dose. The herd immunity we want is not just for our own US, and for the developing world to get the vaccination percent that gives them herd immunity, they need to start getting vaccine ... now. It does us no good to say that every American who wants a vaccination can get one by the end of summer if developing countries are only then starting their vaccination programs. Scientists are working on it, but right now we do not know for sure how long the period of immunity is for either vaccine being given in the US. If our immunity is wearing off and no boosters have been developed, whether all countries have been or are getting vaccinated becomes even more important. 

For the first time since early November, the US is averaging fewer than 100,000 new covid cases per day. Only three states--North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska--have new case rates that are increasing. Rates are steady in New Hampshire, New York, New Jersey, and Puerto Rico. New case rates in every other state are falling. How the variants growing in prevalence will impact these rates isn't clear yet. The UK variant is supposedly doubling ever day, which is not a good thing if we want to keep the case rates going down. 

The Professor is strongly considering getting up at midnight and seeing if he can snag a vaccination appointment at CVS. He admits to being nervous whenever he goes out knowing that he could be somehow exposed. If he does not or can not get one of the drugstore shots, he's likely waiting another six to eight weeks with me. If the drugstores move to my priority group, I might be able to get something sooner, but I'm not getting my hopes up.

Texas remains at the mercy of Mother Nature, while we were somewhat spared here. We had about an inch of snow overnight that was covered with sleet during the morning. Fortunately, we never got the freezing rain that would have coated surfaces with ice. There may be more snow or sleet coming overnight, but the forecast for tomorrow has it well above freezing. Climate change. It's not for wimps.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 339

The weather forecast is ominous. The last advisory I read predicted 3 to 8 inches of snow and sleet alone with .2 to .4 inches of ice. The advisory runs from 9:00 tonight to 1:00 am Friday. Personally, I'm hoping for more snow and as little ice as possible. I'm not a big fan of slip slidin' away. Mother Nature, though, doesn't always see things as I do, so I fully expect tomorrow won't be pretty.

Remember Sweden at the start of the pandemic? They went without mitigation measures hoping for her immunity within their borders. It seems that they started gradual limits in November and are now preparing to close gyms, restaurants, and hair salons. This, as we start to open up even further here. I'm thinking they're on a more correct path than we are right now. Yes, the numbers are getting better here, but that doesn't mean we should stop being careful.

The UK is starting a human challenge study using 90 healthy volunteers 18 to 30 years old. The goal is to establish the smallest amount of virus needed to cause infection, look at the immune response, and see how the virus can be passed from person to person. They'll use the original virus not any of the variants currently in the news. I give those who volunteer for the study major props for being willing to be infected with the virus everyone else is so actively trying to avoid. As for the variants, the CDC has said they could lead to a rapid rise in the number of cases, predicting that deaths could reach 559,000 by March 13. Currently, we're at somewhere over 488,000. 

Vaccinations are still hard to come by in many spots. People locally are complaining in not-very-quiet voices about both the state health department's registration system as well as the system CVS drug stores are using for people to make appointments to get vaccinated. They're still not doing my group, the one with underlying conditions. Massachusetts is currently requiring two underlying  conditions for vaccination. It's like extra credit in school!

POTUS said in a town hall meeting last night that he hopes the nation could return to normal by "next Christmas." The article I read did not define "next" as being 2021 or 2022. I would think of Christmas 2021 as being "this Christmas" with 2022 being "next." Either way, I wonder what normal will mean as we emerge from the pandemic. Handshakes are probably gone for good. I'm not sure about hugs, though I expect if we do still hug, we'll save them for people with whom we are particularly close. There are probably quite a few men who prefer the no-necktie look and feel. Will we pack into a sold-out movie showing and sit shoulder-to-shoulder with a stranger? What about a sports event? A wedding? A funeral? Will restaurants ever get back the capacity they've relinquished? Will people feel comfortable sitting with other people at the next table or in the next booth. 

The local university recorded 117 positive cases on Monday. I'm not sure quite how they did it, but they ascertained that the large number of cases came from people letting their guard down in terms of mitigation. They got too close to each other, or let their mask slip down from their nose, or did some other bad thing. As a result, they shut things down about as tight as they can without sending everyone home as they did last spring. No in-person gatherings on or off campus. In-person classes will continue but with added measures to keep students separated. Kids who live on campus can only leave their dorm rooms for class, meals, exercise, or picking something up at a library. Those will be open only for p8ick-ups. Gyms are closed. If things improve over the next 10 days, they'll relax theses measures. And surprise, surprise, they did not do the 4:00 pm update giving the number of new cases found yesterday. Inquiring minds, well, my mind wants to know.....

The View from the Hermitage, Day 338

I won't be writing a long post today. I just spent too much time setting up an account in the local university's fitness program, doing the health assessment, and making an appointment to talk to a fitness person. The account and assessment got me $110, and the fitness chat will get me another $25. Once I figure out how to report it, I can get $25 for the flue shot I had in September. I don't recall just how many years I've done this, but I've earned the maximum $500 every year. Although I've retired from working at the local university, I can do the fitness program as the spouse of an employee.

England has put in a quarantine program for people entering from countries deemed high-risk for covid-19. Yesterday I found the list; I'd been wondering if the US made the list. I was a bit surprised to see that we did not despite how bad our numbers were for quite a while. Most of the countries seemed to be form South American or Africa. Given that the quarantine will set  you back almost $2,000, I'd do what a friend suggested and go from the high-risk country to a low-risk one and then enter from that one. I wonder if they have a reporting mechanism in place to guard against that.

The weather continues to wreak havoc here. Dallas, Texas should not be seeing temperatures in single-digit Fahrenheit. The houses there are not equipped for such weather. We've escaped so far, though the forecast for tomorrow night through Friday contains words such as "five inches of snow" and "quarter inch of ice." We may be equipped to handle those, but it by no means means we want to. Thanks to the pandemic, though, I have no need to drive anywhere. 

Here's hoping things are warmer down south tomorrow.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 337

How to take someone's mind off the pandemic or politics? Try Arctic cold as far south as the southern tip of Texas. The governor has issued a disaster declaration for the entire state. There is snow in Houston and Galveston. They know how to deal with a hurricane down there; I'm not so sure about a polar vortex. It's not just Texas either. Today one could travel from the Rio Grande on the southern border to the St. Lawrence on the northern and never leave a winter storm watch or warning. Actually, maybe some political hot air would help turn things around. 

And there's always the distraction of Ebola. There are now three confirmed Ebola deaths in Guinea, the first in five years. Four more people are confirmed to have it. All seven attended the funeral of a nurse who had it. The bad news? These cases are in no way related to the ones in the Congo.

The US has currently had over 27.5 million covid-19 cases and recorded over 484,000 deaths. However, both Friday and Saturday saw fewer than 100,000 new cases. The daily average case count in December was 200,000, and several days in January saw more than 250,000. Various reasons have been offered for the drop in case numbers. Vaccinations are easier to find, more people are following at least some mitigation measures, the virus may be following a seasonal pattern, and, frankly, new cases may be going undetected. The caveats are that the numbers, while better, are still now good; the number of cases of the variant forms are increasing; and some states may be reopening things too quickly.  

The CDC has issued new guidelines for reopening K-12 schools to very mixed reviews. The American Federation of Teachers supports the guidelines, though a number of individual teachers do not. Somewhat surprisingly, there are parents who feel the guidelines are too strict. The CDC views teacher vaccinations as a strategy but not a requirement. The guidelines put no emphasis on improved ventilation systems, something many school districts cannot afford to put in. 

Once again, I try to place myself as a parent in the mix and see how I might feel. It doesn't help that The Sons did various virtual distance education classes and in most cases enjoyed them more than they did in-person classes. Son #2 might have missed the social aspect of school, but Son #1 would have preferred to work at home on his own. Neither son liked the group projects so popular in k-12 schools; they usually felt that they did the bouk of the work if not all of it. Given all that, I probably would be in the stay-virtual-as-long-as-you-can group.

Dr. Fauci mentioned in an interview that he did fear he could get covid attending so many meetings at the White House, location of multiple super-spreader events. He said he did not fixate on it, but it was usually in the back of his mind. He had not heard, nor had I, of the new term "fauci-ing" someone, or cutting off a relationship if you don't think the other person is taking the pandemic seriously. You won't wear a mask and you want to be close to me; prepare to be fauci-ed!

The View from the Hermitage, Day 336

The view out the dining room window of the Hermitage is a wee bit different from what was there yesterday or even this morning. There's less snow. Tree branches have shed the ice that weighed them down this morning. One icicle still lives on the eave outside the basement sun room and appears to be hanging on for dear life. A monotonous dripping announces that what was frozen on the roof is melting rhythmically. I expect tomorrow will show even larger changes. 

The more things change, the more they stay the same here in my week 48 of the pandemic. Xpot is still Xpot and has beaten the rap one more time. The novel coronavirus stays novel; the UK variant has been found locally. Countries do what they think best. Germans has tightened its borders, banning travel from some Czech regions. New Zealand has locked down Auckland while three cases in one family are investigated. One of the cases worked in the laundry department of an airline catering company. Here in the US, most things are still left up to the states. There may be a national mask mandate governing interstate travel, but individual states can follow that but have no other mask regulations. Montana just dropped its mask mandate; the governor told Montanans to be vigilant. How the heck can you be vigilant against something you cannot see or feel until it's too late.

An investigator on the World Health Organization team investigating the start of the coronavirus says that China refused to hand over key data, leading a US national security adviser to say he had "deep concerns" about the initial findings. The WHO investigator said that the team requested raw patient data but was given only a summary. The importance of the raw data stems from the fact that only half of the 174 initial cases had exposure to the Wuhan wet market where China says the virus was initially detected. 

I finally remembered today to ask my mom if the sense of smell she lost during her October bout with covid-19 had ever returned. She said it had not. People in the hall still know when she's snacking on microwave popcorn, but she says she smells nothing. Now I need to remember to ask her if losing her sense of smell has made things taste different. I told her that at least she is not a restaurant critic. I read of one such person who could no longer do his or her job having lost both a sense of smell and a sense of taste. 

I could depress myself by commenting on the impeachment verdict and other things political, but I now have evidence that I have been paying too much attention to political news. A crossword clue this morning was "______ King of Maine." I moved my pen to fill it in, but "Angus" was too short. Okay. What could it be. Several minutes later, I got the letter T from a cross clue and realized the King of the clue was Stephen, not Angus. The Professor said that the same thing had happened to him. I will endeavor to get back to more popular culture than political culture. 

One more snow and ice photo. I love the patterns that branches can make. 

The View from the Hermitage, Day 335

The impeachment vote was held a wee bit ago. Needless to say, Xpot was acquitted. The most positive comment that comes to mind is that at least a seventh Republican saw the light and turned from the dark side. I'm sure that Xpot is no longer screaming at his television but is instead gloating and planning his comeback. I just hope that the comeback does not include revenge, suggesting to his "followers" that those who were not with him are against him and should be punished. I would not put that past him at all. I expect there will soon be a pro-Xpot rally, perhaps even on President's Day. As if catching covid-19 is not scary enough, we now have a lunatic with potentially violent followers to fear.

So let's see how scared I can be from the coronavirus notes I wrote while not thinking about the pending impeachment vote. Some health people are cautioning that unless the first-world, developed countries get with the program of ensuring that all nations get the vaccines in "a fast and fair manner," it could be years before the coronavirus is under control at a global level. "Vaccine nationalism" will only prolong the pandemic. Moderna, for example, has given no doses to COVAX, the global vaccine effort, nor have they made any deals to provide vaccine to low-income nations.

While we here in the US have vaccine, many logistical hurdles remain in terms of getting it into people's arms. Not getting our act together will most likely mean that many Americans who want to be vaccinated will still not be vaccinated by the end of the summer. And what percent of people refuse to be vaccinated is still not known with any degree of certainty, but it is likely large enough to make herd immunity difficult if not impossible to achieve. 

My mom got her second vaccine injection on Thursday. She felt more physical effects from the second shot than she did from the first. Another friend who just got her second shot said the same thing. I guess the second dose ups the number of antibodies to a point where more or stronger effects can be felt. Maybe in a few months I'll be able to comment first-hand. Every now and again when I read articles or hear about people complaining about how difficult it is to make vaccination appointments or how the system must be broken because they haven't heard anything after registering, I wonder if my sitting back and saying I'll get an appointment when someone says it's my turn makes me stranger than I may already be. The Professor has said that he doesn't want to get vaccinated until K-12 teachers or child-care workers or other more-essential workers have been vaccinated. While working from home is by no means ideal, it lets him limit his potential exposure and, by extension, mine. 

It's after 5:00 pm here which means I can investigate the alcohol options available without resorting to the "somewhere in the world it is after 5:00 pm" copout. I'm thinking that watching the news tonight would be a bad thing.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 334

I just went out to go up to the mailbox and retrieve the Valentine present I'd ordered for The Professor. The air had a brisk, wintry tang to it. It felt so good, almost like a soothing cool lotion rubbed on my cheeks. It erased some of the stress of the day trying to help The Professor with some computer issues he's been having. Since it didn't erase all the stress, I'm not going to write about the pandemic or impeachment or other worldly matters. I'm just going to put in some photos taken so far in 2021 and possibly comment on some of them. My blog. My rules.

  

I actually took this shot on New Year's Day when I was thinking I should try to do what I did one year and post a photo a day. Given that no photos were ever posted here or on Instagram, you can see how far that idea went. A naked, leafless tree is a recurring quilt idea that, like the photo a day, hasn't really gone anywhere. 

I took these two shots on the morning walk with Son #1 and The Family Dog. The pine trees make me think I'm in Narnia, and they are helpfully or not pointing in the direction they think I should take. I won't say whether I took their advice.

Some freezing or frozen precipitation is in the forecast for tonight, though I can't say that the air out there smells like incoming precipitation. It is nice to have winter for a couple of days. Once The Sons were no longer in school and my duty to drive was reduced, winter got a lot more welcome. That said, we're coming up on the 8th anniversary of what got me the Mother of the Year award for 2013. I need to figure out the exact date and recount that as the day's post. 

Finally, Lauren owes me big time. Lauren who? Hell if I know. All I know is that I found a voicemail on my cell phone intended for someone named Lauren. It was not just any message either, but the offer of a job. The call originated in New Jersey. I returned the call and explained that I was not Lauren though I had gotten a message intended for her. The man whom I had called was very apologetic and also appreciative of the fact that I had taken the time to clear up the situation. I told him to have a nice weekend and said good-bye. As for his being appreciative, wouldn't  anyone have done that? Or am I just that naive?

The View from the Hermitage, Day 333

I did turn on the impeachment trial coverage today. It's disheartening to hear the announcers talking about Republican Senators who are not paying attention. They said that one was looking at a map of Asia and writing in the country names. Really?!? I had teachers who would have thrown an eraser (remember the days of chalkboards?) at that guy and hit him in the head. I did learn a new word, though: prebut. It's rebutting before what you want to rebut is introduced. Prebut. I like that. 

It is probably not surprising, but Americans' perception of the risk of contracting covid-19 is the lowest it has been since October. When asked how they would view the risk of returning to pre-pandemic behavior right now, 9 percent said there would be no risk while 25 percent said the risk would be small. The people least likely to see covid-19 as a risk were (no surprise here) ages 18-29 (58 percent) and (again no surprise) Republicans (49 percent). On the flip side, though, 76 percent of those who had been vaccinated still saw covid-19 as a risk. 

Speaking of vaccinations, Dr. Fauci says that by April we could be at "open season" for vaccinations. Anyone who wants to be vaccinated can then be vaccinated. I hope he's correct, but I'm not that optimistic. I did see "fully vaccinated" defined as having had both shots with at least two weeks having passed since the second shot. At the same time, I saw guidance that one should assume protection may start to wear off after three months. 

Covid case numbers are declining or holding steady in all 50 states but the national numbers are not what could be considered "good." More states are loosening restrictions, something that may not be a good idea. Germany is extending its lockdown despite a drop in the number of cases. The British government is said to have plans to introduce mandatory quarantine and prison sentences for travelers who lie on entry forms. I have to say that this sounds pretty drastic and I'll believe it when I see or hear more details about it.

Psychiatrists are warning of a "tsunami" of eating disorders. The isolation of lockdown has people feeling out of control. Food becomes something that can be controlled, something that can compensate for the lack of control felt in other life things. Since reading this, I've been trying to figure out whether I'm just repressing a sense of no control or if I'm just coping with it really well. Does it matter that I've said not entirely jokingly that my 2020 began in May 2019 when my mom started having health problems? Only about a month after we got her squared away in assisted living in January 2020 the pandemic reared its ugly head. I did stick to my guns about leaving my job, but still it took over a year to actually end being on call. Have I just accepted that there's not as much control in my life given everything that's happened in the last almost-two years? I'll have to give that some thought.

It's snowing again, leading off what could be five days of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and wintry mix. I didn't realize how last year's non-winter (we had less than two inches of snow spread out over the whole season) bummed me out. It does help that I have no reason or desire to drive anywhere. I love watching the snow fall, and I love walking in it. The snow is slowly building up on the branches of the dogwood tree outside the dining room window, and I love watching the change from brown to white branches. It's calming. 

As I've been typing, the House impeachment managers have rested their case, opening the door for Xpot's attorneys to being their defense tomorrow. The CNN talking heads said the final vote might even be taken on Saturday. I don't think he'll be convicted, but I might consider it a win if more than six Republicans vote for conviction. I do have champagne ready should that  happen. 

 

The View from the Hermitage, Day 332

The novel coronavirus cannot compete with Xpot's impeachment trial on the news front. Only an unbelievably good or bad aspect of the virus could compete with coverage of the trial. I suppose that's warranted. We've had pandemics before, but we've never had a second impeachment trial nor have we ever had an impeachment trial for someone no longer in office. Once again, I have watched no news coverage during the day and will rely on the nightly news for the high points. I instead have been wrestling with a quilt repair, but that's another story. 

On the news front but not related to either pandemic or impeachment is that breakdancing will be a sport in the 2024 Paris Olympic Games. Breakdancing. Really. Here, I revert to Michael Wilbon (former sports columnist for The Washington Post) for guidance as to what is a competitive "sport." Are you competing directly with another person? Is there an objective standard such as time against which each competitor is measured? Then it's a sport. I believe that gymnasts and figure skaters are tremendously physically fit, but gymnastics and figure skating are not sports.

In terms of the Olympics, the Tokyo ones that is, the director of Australian tennis says that a more rigorous coronavirus plan is needed. He's basing this on what has been required to get the Australian Open up and running. One of his suggestions is to lengthen the games to allow for longer quarantine periods with athletes training at their own accommodations rather than together at Olympic facilities. Another factor in terms of the Olympics in Tokyo is that Japan's general population of people ages 16 to 59 will likely not be getting covid vaccines until July, the month is which the games are scheduled to be held. Will the world accept the Olympic Games without spectators? Your guess is as good as mine. 

Moving to Europe, Europe's oldest living person, a nun, has survived covid-19 days before her 117th birthday. She was asymptomatic even. In case anyone is wondering, she is the world's second oldest living person.

The CDC has issued new mask advice. A tightly fitting surgical mask or layering a cloth mask over a surgical mask can reduce transmission of covid-19 by up to 96.5 percent if (you knew there had to be a condition, right?) both people are wearing them. Other covid highlights include that half of US deaths have come since November 1, 2020. Experts are advising that a dip in new case rates does not mean that restrictions should be reset totally. Once spring arrives and people are doing more outdoor activities might be a better time to relax things. Starting Friday, Philadelphia will allow restaurants to increase indoor dining from 25 percent of capacity to 50 percent if they pass an air test. First, they must have HVAC or a standalone ventilation unit that is fully operational and that ventilates the entire dining area. The room's air must be replaced at least 15 times per hour. I did not look into exactly how this would be measured.

As for the quilt repair mentioned at the outset, when The Sons were little, 4 to 6 years old, I made each of them a trip around the world tied quilt that emerged from my first ever quilting class. They kept these quilts on their beds year after year. About seven or eight years ago, Son #1 asked if I could repair his quilt; there were holes or tears from just how well it had been loved. I said I would do it, having absolutely no idea how to do that. I actually took the quilt to a meeting of one of the guild chapters to which I belonged thinking it might be a way to get to know some of the people better, asking for advice. That plan bombed. The main suggestion was to make a new quilt, this offered after asking why I would even think of trying to repair this one, even after hearing how long my son had had the quilt and how much he valued it. I ended up winging it and actually did a not-too-bad job. 

Then Son #2 asked me to repair his quilt. Son #1 was okay with my adding some new fabric patches to cover the holes; I was surprised at how closely I could match 20-plus year old fabric at Joann's. I repaired it as if the three worn layers were one, then put down new batting and backing and machine-quilted all the ditches. Son #2, on the other hand, has asked me to replace as little fabric as possible. He does not want new batting because he does not want it to be any warmer than it already is. His quilt also has more wear and tear then the first one. I won't say how long I've had the quilt sitting awaiting repair. I will just say that it occurred to me that getting the quilt done would be a great birthday present. This gives me until April 2. I have already determined that it's getting new backing. I will not add a new batting layer, but there's no way I can do a reasonable job if the original backing has to be visible. 

The punchline is that Son #1 says his quilt has a few more rips and worn spots, so can I fix his again once I'm done with Son #2's. Momming really is a lifelong experience.  

The View from the Hermitage, Day 331

Xpot's second impeachment trial has started. While I have yet to watch any of it, I heard that a videotape of some of the insurrection including the noose intended for Vice President Pence was one of the first things shown.  Watching a summary shown on a network's nightly news show is probably a better use of my time than watching it as it happens live.

Moving to the novel coronavirus front, a researcher from the World Health Organization says that it is unlikely that the virus escaped from a Chinese lab. I call that good news in that directing pent-up pandemic anger toward a bat or some other animal is safer to the world than potentially going to war against another nation. 

Some researchers here are warning that we could see a surge in deaths from the covid variants given how far behind we are in tracking them. We currently rank 54rd in the world for covid-19 genetic sequencing despite having one of the most well-developed genomic infrastructures in the world. The CDC did not begin reviewing samples from states until November 2020 and currently received only 750 per week for sequencing. Variant B117 aka the British variant appears to be 50 percent more transmissible and could result in a summer surge if the vaccines end up being less effective against it.

A recent survey included the question "When do you anticipate returning to normal levels of attending in-person gatherings?" I found the results quite interesting. For the total US sample surveyed, 28 percent said that they already are attending in-person gatherings. The responses by political party did not surprise me: 42 percent of Republicans are already attending such gatherings compared to 10 percent of Democrats. Education didn't seem to affect current attendance, though the two groups were high school or less (28 percent) versus bachelor's degree or higher (27 percent). 

I am disheartened that just over one-fourth of all respondents are already attending in-person gatherings. I concede that they may be doing so masked and distanced, but I don't really believe that's the case. That so many Republicans are already gathering in groups is surprising only in that I would not have been surprised to see a higher number. I've read several reports in which doctors or epidemiologists say that things are opening up too soon, and we'll see the effects down the road. I wonder if we'll be able to distinguish between the Super Bowl surge and the Valentine's one or if they'll basically run together. 

One of the local drugstores is starting covid vaccinations on Friday. The appointment system will go live sometime tomorrow. To get an appointment, you must already be registered with the local health district and over the age of 65. This means that The Professor could try getting an appointment; he's not sure it's worth the hassle of the every-man-for-himself appointment process. I don't think I'd try getting an appointment in a scrum. The system of the district's sending you an email with instructions to follow seems much easier even if it means waiting longer. It's not as if I have in-person gatherings I want or need to attend. 

I do, though, have dinner with The Professor to attend, and I'm making corn chowder tonight.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 330

Last night's Super Bowl as a football game was disappointing. The ads were also not of the same caliber as those in years past. We only watched the first half before following The Family Dog to bed. I watched a couple of the ads we missed, such as Bruce Springsteen's Jeep ad, online this morning and found nothing to get excited about. I've never been a Tom Brady fan, but I did appreciate reading that in September 2014, six years and five Super Bowls ago, he said, "When I suck, I'll retire. But I don't plan on sucking for a long time."

As for the pie and the chili, both were great. I asked The Professor if the pie (which does taste very much like a cookie) "needed" the cream cheese crust I wrestled with. He said it did, that it would not have tasted the same on a plain pastry crust. The chili was good last night and again for lunch today. Son #1 took a container of it with him this morning and texted me later to tell me it was delicious. The chili recipe can be found here. I don't want to run wild violating copyright protection, but I might be willing to scan the pie and crust recipes and send them to a couple of close friends. 

In news of viruses other than the novel coronavirus one, the Democratic Republic of the Congo had an Ebola case surface. The woman presenting with Ebola was married to a man who survived Ebola a couple of years ago. It turns out that the Ebola virus can live in semen and eye tissue for over three years. It gives new meaning to the term "safe sex."

The good news is that Covid-19 rates in the US are declining. There were just over 87,000 new cases yesterday, the first day since early November with fewer than 100,000 new cases. Deaths are not declining, unfortunately, and the total case number for the US is now over 27,000,000. In 44 states, new case rates are declining, while that are flat in the other six states. The lowest new case rates are in Hawaii, North Dakota, and Washington State; the highest are in South Carolina, Arkansas, and Oklahoma.

The bad news is that the above declines may not last. The variants, particularly that from the UK, are becoming more prevalent and could bring on a new wave of cases. There is also a nontrivial probability of seeing a post-Super-Bowl surge. Thousands danced, maskless, in the streets of downtown Tampa following last night's game. There were also likely to have been crowded indoor gatherings in other cities. 

While Virginia is treating high-risk conditions on the honor system, New York State is requiring that people document whatever underlying conditions they have that put them at higher risk should they get covid-19. Documentation can be in the form of a doctor's letter, other medical information, or some form of signed certification. While it would be a hassle, though not difficult, to get such documentation from my doctor, it may be a better way to handle things. Given the anxiety some people are showing about when they could get vaccinated, I can see someone claiming to have something they don't really have just to get vaccinated sooner than they otherwise would be able to. 

Something I never would have thought of as a result of the pandemic is an increased demand for services from organizations in Israel that help ultra-Orthodox who have left the fold transition to modern Israeli society. The reasons cited for the increased exiting the fold are that the pandemic has caused a breakdown of supervision and routine, an increase in internet use, and more time for questioning and self discovery.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 329

Day 329 ... Week 47 ... Year 1? While I fully expect not to have been vaccinated once let alone twice by the one-year mark for this blog, I hope like hell I'm not still going strong this far into a second year. I do know that I won't be jumping right back out into the world even after a second dose of vaccine. I cannot, for example, envision eating out in a restaurant. I can envision going back to working as an officer of election if enough time has passed after the second shot that I feel it's had its full effect. 

Mother Nature, however, may have other ideas. South Africa has halted the rollout of the AstraZeneca covid vaccine because it has shown minimal efficacy against what's here being called the South Africa variant. Fortunately, the vaccines in use here in the US appear to work against what is called the British variant--the more contagious possibly more deadly variant--because the prevalence of that variant appears to be doubling every week and a half. 

I have been told that since The Professor and I have registered with the State Health Department as well as the regional health district folks, we'll get an email telling us when it's our turn to get vaccinated and how to make an appointment. This obviously varies from state to state and, possibly, locality to locality. I read this morning how some other countries are notifying people that it's their turn for the vaccine. Britain is apparently using a letter or phone call, while Israel is relying on text messaging. Notification in Germany varies from state to state, while India is using neighborhood lists. 

As schools locally move to increase in-person K-12 instruction, there may be a new controversy brewing. Some districts appear to be hiring "classroom monitors," to, what else, monitor classrooms in which students will sit at desks for the same virtual instruction they would get at home. They would not be going to school to be in a classroom with a teacher present and teaching. They would just be following on a screen in a classroom rather than on a screen at home.

The Super Bowl, the climax of the season, is this evening. Noteworthy is that the game was scheduled for February 7, 2021, before the pandemic happened. The National Football League, unlike the other professional sports leagues, had no games canceled due to covid. Some were delayed, but all were played. Perhaps more noteworthy is that the season did not happen in a bubble. There may have been a couple of games that were not played in the stadium they had been scheduled for due to local regulations, but only a couple. What the NFL did that other sports leagues did not do or did not do as well was to stress the public health side of the pandemic: distancing, testing, contact tracing, isolation. and so forth. League officials expected there to be cases of covid; the goal was to minimize the spread of those cases. 

The surprise to me was that there was never a case of the virus being transmitted across the line of scrimmage despite large, sweaty, huffing and puffing men crouching nose to nose. There was no transmission even in cases in which players tested positive for covid after having played in a game. The league used genetic sequencing to verify that such a player did not transmit whatever viral strain he had to someone else on the field at the same time. 

Moving on to the Capitol insurrection, researchers at the University of Chicago have been analyzing the backgrounds of the people arrested so far. The average age of arrestees is 40. Almost 90 percent have no known links to militant groups. Forty percent own their own business or work in white-collar jobs. They have one common denominator. They all support Xpot. He is the reason they were where they were on January 6. Having watched video of Xpot's remarks to the crowd that day, I view those remarks as incendiary when delivered to one's supporters. Will enough Republican Senators agree with me? Not bloody likely.

We had snow again today. I left my phone at home when we walked The Family Dog, but I took a shot of the dogwood tree out back through the dining room window.

When we reached the other cul-de-sac, the flakes were large and fluffy. Standing still, looking straight up at them as they fell was magical. I had not realized how much I missed a good snowfall. Now, eight or so hours later, most of the snow has melted. It was wonderful while it lasted, but it didn't last long enough.

I found a recipe for Oatmeal Raisin Pie in the book Son #2 gave me for Christmas, Pie Academy. It seemed like something that might go with the Instant Pot chili I'll be trying to make after I post this. The Professor's favorite cookies are oatmeal raisin, and the description of his pie was that the top was like a huge cookie. The Flaky Cream Cheese Pie Dough used for the crust was a bitch to make since I don't have a food processor. I made two batches, one using my stand mixer and the other using an immersion blender. I ended up using the immersion  blender dough. I don't know how it tastes yet, but I do know I'd never enter a pie using it in a county fair because getting it to look as good as it doesn't in the picture below was not easy.

Here's hoping I don't struggle as much with the Instant Pot chili as I did with the Flake Cream Cheese Pie Dough crust. And here's hoping both the chili and the pie are tasty.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 328

I think I'll stick with news on the lighter side today. I'm not mentally ready to give deep thought to viruses or politics except to note that POTUS has said that Xpot should not get the daily intelligence briefings due to his "erratic behavior." That's probably putting it politely.

I learned that there exists something called the Forbes Pigment Collection at the Harvard Art Museums. It houses over 2,500 pigments. I learned this in the summary of an article on a new blue pigment, the first discovered in some 200 years. You can see a sample here, which is not the summary I read this morning. It's a very pretty blue, but I'm not going to spend $179.40 on a small tube of paint.

Here's hoping you weren't planning on an Alaskan cruise this summer. The Canadian government has extended its ban on cruise ships through February 2022, effectively shutting down Alaska cruises. Most of the ships sailing out of US ports to Alaska are registered in foreign countries. US maritime law says that foreign-registered ships can't go between two American ports without stopping at a foreign point in between.

POTUS has gone home to Delaware for a combination Super Bowl and son's 51st birthday weekend. Security and time-wise, the easiest, possibly only, way to get him there was via Air Force One. The Air Force One seen on most news blurbs is a Boeing 747. There is a second one, a Boeing 757, that is used to land at smaller airports, such as the one in Wilmington, Delaware. ("Air Force One" is the call sign of any plane holding the President.) The plane used by the Vice President is a Boeing 757, meaning that POTUS is familiar with that size plane. His comment on the one he flew on to Delaware? "A great plane. It's the same plane we had as vice president--only it's much nicer." I should hope so.

Finally, I found cited in a Facebook post some song lyrics from Paul Simon that seemed very relevant to the world today. 

God only knows                                                                                                                             

God makes his plan                                                                                                                       

The information's unavailable                                                                                                         

To the mortal man                                                                                                                            

We work our jobs                                                                                                                       

Collect our pay                                                                                                                         

Believe we're gliding down the highway                                                                                   

When in fact we're slip slidin' away 

Time to slip slide into tomorrow, the start of the 47th week of our personal lockdown here in our hermitage. And with five inches or more of snow forecast for tonight, we really might be slip slidin' tomorrow.                                                                                                               

The View from the Hermitage, Day 327

I've decided to rename Mr. Biden to POTUS as a dig at Xpot. I don't expect that Xpot will know or care, but it suits me to do it this way. Speaking of Xpot, his time in office was a boon for The New York Times subscription-wise. I guess people developed a real taste for the fake news he said it ran. Digital-only subscriptions rose by 6.7 million during Xpot's time in office, compared with 3 million for The Washington Post and 2.46 million for The Wall Street Journal.

There won't be a glitzy new Budweiser Clydesdale ad during Sunday's Super Bowl, but Anheuser-Busch is running an ad that might moisten your eyes a wee bit. Parts might make you laugh or smile, while others might pull at your heartstrings. It's a good commercial considering the times in which it is airing. 

The governor held a coronavirus briefing this morning, catching me by surprise. He says the covid-19 numbers are improving to the point that he wants all school divisions in the state to be offering some form of in-person instruction by March 15. He did concede that should things worsen, he is quite willing to revert to virtual only. He also called on school divisions to craft some sort of summer school that will help bring kids up to speed on what they should have learned last spring and this year. It will not be mandatory, though, which makes me wonder if they will suggest to some families that their kids attend or make it totally voluntary. I guess we'll see.

I watched the governor's briefing on Facebook with a comment feed open. A surprisingly large number of angry faces wafted up on the sidebar, but that often happens during the briefings. What really caught my eye were the comments posted while the governor was discussing vaccinations. A very large number of people noted that they were not going to get vaccinated because they were scared. A noticeable number of those posted that people had died, sometimes within minutes, after being vaccinated. I guess I'm not reading, watching, or listening to the same news sources these folks are. 

The US recorded over 5,000 covid-19 deaths yesterday, but I'm happy (?) to say that the magnitude of the number was due to Indiana's inclusion of a backlog of around 1,500 previously unreported deaths. Don't get your hopes up, though. A newly released model predicts over 630,000 covid-19 deaths by June 1. I haven't seen an analogous number for the US, but the UK covid variant now accounts for 6 percent of cases in Germany.

And now a couple of non-covid comments. The Virginia House of Delegates yesterday voted to end capital punishment. The governor has already indicated that he will sign the bill, which makes us the first Southern state to end capital punishment. Weatherwise, we are about to experience a Siberian front that will take temperatures in the Upper Midwest down to the -30F to -50F range. In Tisdale,he tiny Saskatchewan town in which The Professor's brother lives, the high temperature Sunday is forecast to be -24F with a low of -31F. Yes, the -24F is the forecast high temperature. When The Professor comments that he is from Canada, he cites temperatures such as this as one of the reasons why.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 326

I spent much of the morning in one of my happy places, in front of a sewing machine. I started a new project to use up some of the fabric glut. I'm far enough along that I now need to decide how I want to arrange things. I have photos of various arrangements and, while those incubate, I'll have plenty to do with the sampler for my pandemic quilt. One commentator mentioned using fabric stabilizer for that. I tried this, and will definitely use it when I do the real deal. 

The CDC is concerned about the coronavirus variants, saying that we could have over 530,000 deaths by March 1. A model out of Columbia University holds that a loosening of restrictions nationally this month could lead to an additional 29 million covid-19 infections. Yes, we now have vaccines against the coronavirus, but the data suggest we're worse off than we were last spring when the first lockdowns took place. Some people complained then, but a larger number of people complied, and things got better, at least until things started to reopen. People have started to get complacent, thinking that things are getting better and will continue to do so, so why worry about masks and distancing?

On a better side, global confidence in the available covid-19 vaccines is growing. Maybe we'll have more than enough people getting vaccinated to give a start toward herd immunity. COVAX, an initiative of the World Health Organization, has announced plans to distribute 330 million doses of vaccine to developing nations by July 1. That would certainly improve the global picture. 

Closer to home, Virginia's governor has said that tomorrow he will announce a plan to keep K-12 students in school longer in the summer to make up for what they may have lost due to virtual learning. A psychology professor at the local university suggested this a short while back. The professor made the point that summer instruction needed to be for all students, not just those needing remediation. It needs to be seen as something for all and not something that singles out a subgroup of kids. 

I saw the summer school announcement on Facebook and, based on the comments there, shit's gonna get real. Several parents were saying that their kids did not need to take part. They (parents) said that they had invested time and energy all year to ensure that their kid(s) learned what they needed to learn and would be getting all As as final grades. Sleep-away summer camp was cited by several as being more important to their kids. Various aspects of summer camp were cited as reasons for its being better than school--leadership, special programs, etc. To top it all off, though, one parent noted that they needed the time away from their kid, that they loved their kid but needed the break from parenting. 

The Sons did residential academic programs for gifted kids during their high school years. Did I enjoy my time away from one or both of them? I enjoyed that they were in a very happy place and would come home talking about what class they might want to take the next summer. (These were real academic classes, for which their high school awarded them credit.) Did I need time away from my kids? No, though they might have needed time away from me. 

Intriguing item with which to end today's post, here's a quote from a blurb I read this morning: 

"Eavesdropping marmosets understand other monkeys' conversations and judge whether they want to interact."

I wonder how they would feel about summer camps' being put on  hold.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 325

Some 325 days ago when I started this series of blog posts, there were many days--most days even--in which every article on the front page of The Washington Post concerned the novel coronavirus. That didn't seem to happen in the daily local, but the novel coronavirus generally occupied maybe half of the front page. Today, the only front-page mention of the virus in the Post can be found in two teasers of articles inside the front section. One, about the death of Capt. Tom Moore the 100-year-old British vet who walked around his garden and raised $45 million for the UK's National Health Service, mentioned that this was done "early in the pandemic." The other plugged an article about Russia's Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine. The first mention of the coronavirus in the local paper was on the fourth page. Out-of-sight, out-of-mind?

I'm worried that the existence of the various vaccines is diverting attention from the mitigation measures that would slow the spread and help with the totality of getting hundreds of millions of people hundreds of millions doses of vaccine. I check in on a couple of area listservs, and the reports of which businesses enforce mask-wearing and/or distancing have in large part been replaced by reports of "why can't we get vaccinated now?" or "why are [insert group name here] getting the vaccine before [insert another group name here]?" Maybe it's general impatience, a fed-up feeling that this has gone on for as long as it has. I can be very impatient but am not really feeling that way now. It's going to take a while, folks. It's going to take a while. 

In more general coronavirus news, Dr. Fauci is saying that  70 to 85 percent of the US population should be vaccinated before the country can start returning to normal. Yes, I typed that sentence right after an admonition for us to be patient. As long as enough people get vaccinated and the virus doesn't throw an unexpected curve ball, we'll get there. Dr. Fauci is also counseling against hosting or attending Super Bowl parties on Sunday. The Super Bowl could be a super spreader. We usually watch the Super Bowl more for the ads than the game, so it was disappointing to read that some companies traditionally associated with the classic commercials will not be running them this year. It was not disappointing to hear that some of them are using the money they would have spent on ads and air time for coronavirus relief. 

People who still decline to accept the seriousness of the coronavirus should perhaps be told of an incident in California's prison system. A covid-19 outbreak at one men's prison led to the transfer of high-risk inmates from that prison to two other prisons that between them had had only one case of covid-19. One month later, those two prisons between them had more than 1,300 cases. The virus is all too real and all too deadly.

There continue to be issues with vaccine availability. Demand from European countries is slowing delivery of vaccines to Canada, possible leading to Canada's ordering from an American company. China says that it will provide 10 million vaccine doses to developing nations, but I don't know how those countries might be chosen. I can't be sure, but I don't think Mr. Biden has said anything specific about how the US might help vaccinate the Third World. 

It did not surprise me to read that younger adults and middle-aged people cause the most covid spread.Through mid-August 2020, 75 percent of new infections came from adults aged 20 to 49 with the 35 to 49 year-old subgroup contributing more than the 20 to 34 year-old subgroup. The group dying the most from those transmitted infections? Yes, mostly older people. I remember most of my 20s. I did things then without thinking that I would not do now after thinking twice and twice again. I can't say for sure that I would have been adamant about mask-wearing and social distancing then. There's a certain air of imperviousness in that decade. 

It also did not surprise me to hear that Dolly Parton twice declined the Presidential Medal of Freedom from Xpot. The first time, she said that her husband was ill. The second time, she said that she did not want to travel during the pandemic. I hope conditions change so that she can accept the medal from Mr. Biden. The same with Bill Belichick, who also declined Xpot's invitation.