The New York Times interviewed 21 scientists about the pandemic. All were optimistic that the worst is behind us and life may begin to seem normal this summer. At the same time, though, they were worried about people getting complacent. It seems that the greatest threat to getting back to normal is human behavior. As one biologist noted, the single biggest lesson he'd learned is that epidemiological modeling struggles with dependence on human behavior. In the long term, will the virus ever be behind us? Every expert said no, that the virus will continue to pop up in clusters but might develop into an infection similar to a common cold.
The number of new covid-19 cases is down 35 percent over the past two weeks. Deaths are down 16 percent, though there were still 3,210 deaths on Wednesday. Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch notes, "Taking the first hint of a downward trend as a reason to reopen is how you get to even higher numbers." In that vein, the local university has loosened most of the restrictions they put in place following several days of too high case numbers. The new, more relaxed restrictions take effect immediately. I'm thinking there will be multiple frat parties tonight though behind closed doors as much as possible. Rhode Island offers an illustrative case. In late November, in response to higher case numbers, the state put limits on social gatherings and businesses. Eight days later, case numbers began to decline. On December 20, the November restrictions were lifted. Guess what. Eight days later, the downward trend reversed. After writing the above, I saw a report that the CDC director warned governors not to get impatient, saying, "Things are tenuous. Now is not the time to relax restrictions." It's gonna get interesting.
One complicating factor is that young people have been driving the spread of the virus, and most young people will not get vaccinated for months. Before variants were discovered, some scientists estimated that 1,000,000 Americans vaccinated daily would limit the magnitude of any fourth wave. The variants have changed that. The California variant in particular may be deadlier, more transmissible, and more resistant to vaccines. A scientist at the University of California San Francisco noted that "the devil is already here." The California variant has multiple mutations, including four that have not been seen in the other variants. Three of those four are changes to the spike protein, which can be particularly nasty. On the good side, though the California variant may be somewhat vaccine-resistant, it gives slightly better odds than the South African variant.
People appear to be getting less resistant to being vaccinated. A recent survey showed 55 percent of adults had either gotten at least one vaccine shot or wanted to get one. This was up from 47 percent in mid-January and 34 percent in early December. Those percents won't get us even close to herd immunity, but they're trending in the right direction.
And some people, it appears, will go to great lengths to get vaccinated. The head of Canada's largest pension fund has resigned after traveling to Dubai for a dose of vaccine. He's still there actually, staying until he can get his second shot. It is not clear how he managed to get a shot there. He is a British citizen with no clear ties to the UAE. He said that there were reasons he went this route to get vaccinated, but he did not elaborate.
Between Facebook and email lists, I am seeing more and more of my friends getting their first or second dose of vaccine. So far I have not encountered an anti-vaxxer in my not-so-large pool of friends and acquaintances. I'm not sure how I would react if someone did tell me they were declining to get vaccinated. They would have to tell me via phone, computer, or paper because those are the only ways in which I "see" other people right now. I can think of a couple of acquaintances who might decline to be vaccinated, but I am not going to ask them about it. None of them are local, so the chances I would run into them in person are slim.
2 comments:
I've met one person who was vaccine hestitant and that was before it was rolled out, she may have changed her mind. It's not compulsory, people can make their own choices and that includes getting out of the queue so someone else that wants it can take that shot. I most certainly wouldn't be getting into a discussion about it, converting the unbelievers can wait until there's spare vaccine because the rollout is limited by supply. Everyone else is on the starting blocks with their sleeve rolled up, ready to sprint as soon as they get the message to book.
I think we're on the 64+ age group except that the national scheme was allowing 60+ to book so who knows?
I know an immunocompromised woman who was getting her 1st vaccine, in a hospital setting, on Friday. She hasn't reported how it went, but I keep checking on her.
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