The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 145 (645)

As European countries put new restrictions in place or tighten the ones already in effect, we in the US are doing very little in terms of trying to slow the pace of Omicron. New York City will announce this week whether they will hold or cancel next week's New Year's Eve celebration in Times Square. The fact that they have noted that it will be outside and allow entry only to vaccinated people leads me to believe it will still be held. Some local governments and private institutions have been putting in place pandemic measures that feel like last year, but it may well be too little even if it's at the right time. Several governors, including one currently testing positive for covid, have said they have no intention of putting restrictions in place again. 

So just how bad are things here? Last week saw a 17 percent increase in covid cases and a nine percent increase in deaths. Descriptors bandied about include "viral blizzard," "winter of severe illness and death," and "extraordinary." Fifty million Americans remain unvaccinated, and it's not at all clear if many or most of those ever will get vaccinated. New cases in New York City are up 60 percent over two weeks. Washington, DC is seeing three times as many new cases daily as at the start of December. POTUS will address the nation tomorrow night. According to his press secretary, he "will announce new steps the Administration is taking to help communities in need of assistance, while also issuing a stark warning of what the winter will look like for Americans that choose to remain unvaccinated."

Not too long ago, the news was that the majority of new cases were in people who had not yet been vaccinated. Reports out of Denmark are that most of the people infected there are fully vaccinated. As for the severity of a case of Omicron, data from Imperial College London found no evidence that Omicron is less severe than Delta based on the proportion of people seeking hospital care after they have been infected. I'll be looking for more detail on that study given how important the results would be. 

Mild or severe illness aside, there are three signs of hope. First, anti-viral drugs are becoming available. These reduce the amount of virus produced in the body and lessen that chance patients will need hospital treatment. Second, cases in South Africa appear to have peaked while early signs are that deaths could be lower than in earlier waves. The caveat is that many South Africans have infection-induced immunity in addition to that induced by vaccines. Finally, Omicron appears much more efficient than Delta in reproducing in bronchial tubes in the upper respiratory tract, where it can be more easily coughed out onto other people. However, it appears far less efficient in spreading to the lungs where it poses the greatest danger to an infected person.

And on a "you have to be kidding, right?" note, this year's flu shot seems to have been poorly matched to the flu strains circulating this season. I'll have a respiratory disease, bartender; make it a double. 

It's clear that we won't be putting in place anything like the restrictions being put in place in Europe. I read that hospitals will be filled to a greater capacity than they were in the spring of 2020. Is it pandemic fatigue that makes people today not see the value in inconvenient-for-a-short-while measures most people accepted at the outset? The less people do to help slow the spread of variants such as Omicron or to help block the development of even more such variants, the longer we may very well be only wishing we could be home for Christmas.