The View from the Hermitage, Day 457

The novel coronavirus may have arrived in the US much earlier than thought. A new analysis of 24,000 blood samples taken from Americans in early 2020 suggests that the virus was here in December 2019 even if it did not become widespread until February 2020. The antibodies present after a bout of covid-19 can be detected as early as two weeks after infection. Blood samples from nine study participants, five from Illinois and one each from Massachusetts, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin suggested infection earlier than any case ever recorded in the US. One of the subjects from Illinois appears to have been infected as early as Christmas Eve 2019. The study is by no means definitive; it is possible that the antibodies were in reaction to another coronavirus. It is interesting to note that these nine cases did not come from either New York City or Seattle, the places in which covid was initially found. 

New York has lifted most virus rules after 70 percent of the population have gotten at least one dose of vaccine. Governor Cuomo says that this makes possible a "return to life as we know it." Federal restrictions such as masks on public transportation remain in effect. Some 899 people in New York City were evidently vaccinated with expired Pfizer; they have been informed to return for a "real" dose. Vermont has lifted all remaining covid restrictions as it becomes the first state to have at least partially vaccinated 80 percent of its residents. Individual businesses or municipalities can still implement their own rules and, as with New York, federal rules remain in effect. Bringing up the rear in terms of vaccination rates are Mississippi with 35 percent and Alabama and Louisiana with 37 percent each. The champion in the vaccination race is the South Pacific island of Palau where 96 percent of the population has been fully vaccinated. We will get that high a vaccination rate only in our wildest dreams.

The US death toll passed 600,000 sometime around lunchtime today. The US continues to have one of the worst per capita death rates, eclipsed only by Peru, Brazil, Argentina, and Colombia. Vaccination could be a top priority for years to come. 

April's Kumbh Mela festival in India is widely believed to be responsible for the Indian covid surge. Now it appears that some of the private agencies responsible for testing pilgrims forged at least 100,000 out of 400,000 results. The investigation began when a man in a neighboring state received negative test results even though he had never left his home state nor had he been tested for any reason. 

One quarter of almost 2 million covid patients have been found to have new issues. This includes people who had mild or asymptomatic covid. The new issues arise a month or more after infection. The most common new problems are pain, including in nerves and muscles; breathing difficulties; high cholesterol; malaise and fatigue; and high blood pressure. Other issues include intestinal symptoms; migraines; skin problems; heart abnormalities; sleep disorders; and mental health issues such as anxiety and depression. These issues arise in people of all ages, including children. Nearly half of all hospitalized covid patients experience subsequent medical issues, along with 27 percent with mild or moderate symptoms and 19 percent of asymptomatic patients. 

Finally, American Express will allow most employees to work from home for up to two days a week--usually Monday and Friday--permanently. Employees who worked full-time from home before the pandemic can keep doing so. Employees whose jobs cannot be done effectively from home will have to return to the office full-time.