The View from the Hermitage, Day 448

There was a thought-provoking article in The Washington Post's Outlook section this morning presenting evidence that the coronavirus did not originate man-made from the virology lab in Wuhan. You can read it at https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/virus-origins-nature-lab/2021/06/03/dd50eb62-c4a9-11eb-93f5-ee9558eecf4b_story.html. Son #1 reminded me, though, that the virus could be one being studied at the Wuhan Lab that was released accidentally. One point in the article is that the coronavirus had some flaws that would not have been there had it been engineered to do harm. I don't want to think about what the last 18 months would have been like had the virus been intentionally strengthened.

There is some question of how well the covid vaccines work for people with immune deficiencies. It's estimated that there are some six million people taking immuno-suppresants that could interfere with the vaccine. The results are mixed, though. One study, on patients taking certain drugs to treat ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease, showed "robust antibody responses" to both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. A second study, though, found that 46 percent of transplant recipients had no antibody responses after two doses of either vaccine. A third study concerned patients with conditions such as lupus, psoriasis, and inflammatory bowel disease treated with two types of drugs--glucocorticoids and B-cell depleting agents. Both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were impaired in terms of producing an immune response. Finally, two patients followed the Pfizer vaccine with the Johnson & Johnson one. One had a positive result as antibody levels rose; the other had no response. 

XPot spoke last night at a GOP convention in North Carolina and was introduced as "our president." As expected, his punching bag was Anthony Fauci. He called Dr. Fauci "not a great doctor but a great promoter" adding "but he's been wrong on almost every issue and he was wrong on Wuhan and the lab also." XPot also called on China to pay $10 trillion in reparations for having released the virus.

As the US begins to return to normality, hotels and concerts are selling out, rental cars and rental homes are being booked more often and for longer periods, and visits to museums and events are soaring. Also soaring are the prices of goods for which there is a shortage. At the same time, many restaurants and bars can't hire enough staff. Said the owner of a McDonald's franchise, "You've got a lot of people with a lot of money, and they're out there shopping. And then, on the flip side, we're scrambling for help." In terms of any full return to normality, a WHO official says that eradicating covid-19 is not a "reasonable target" and that people will have to learn how to live with it. "The virus isn't going away any time soon, there will be variants emerging."   

The covid numbers coming out of Italy continue to improve. On Saturday, there were 57 deaths, 2,436 new cases, 5,193 hospitalizations, and 788 people in the ICU. Sunday, there were 51 deaths, 2,274 new cases, 4,963 hospitalizations, and 774 people in the ICU. Numbers in India are also improving albeit slowly. India reported 114,460 new cases Sunday, the lowest in 60 days. The area around New Delhi, the capital, will ease restrictions starting Monday. At the same time, though, officials say they are preparing for a third wave.

Preparing for a third, or fourth, wave is not unreasonable, especially in Africa where only about three percent of 1.2 billion people have gotten even one dose of vaccine. WHO said last week that eight countries had seen cases surge 30 percent or more in the previous seven days. Normality will take longer than a lot of people think, because no one is safe until everyone is safe.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 406

Fifty-eight weeks! Hooyah! So here's a news item that stretches pretty far back in the annals of the coronavirus pandemic over those 58 weeks. A Florida man and his three sons have been indicted for fraudulently marketing and selling a toxic industrial bleach mixture as a cure for covid-19. Not only does this solution cure covid, it also cures cancer, Alzheimer's, diabetes, autism, malaria, hepatitis, Parkinson's, herpes, HIV/AIDS, and some other medical issues even if it seems as if there are no other medical issues in need of a cure. They sold tens of thousands of bottles of what they called a "miracle mineral solution" earning more than a million dollars in the process. They actually wrote XPot in April 2020 promoting their product as "a wonderful detox that can kill 99 percent of the pathogens in the body."

They sold their magical elixir through a business called Genesis II Church of Health and Healing which they admitted had nothing to do with religion. They said they had set the business up "to legalize the use of Miracle Mineral Solution" and to avoid "going to jail." After being indicted, they threatened the presiding judge and warned that if the government tried to prevent their distribution of the elixir, they would "pick up guns" and instigate "a Waco." And pick up guns they could have done as multiple loaded firearms were found on their property including a pump-action shotgun concealed in a custom-made violin case. If convicted, they could face life in prison. I wonder if there might be a market for the elixir there.

On the lighter side of covid, several dating apps have added covid vaccination status as a selection factor, saying that over 60 percent of people would not consider dating someone not getting vaccinated. You are, of course, trusting someone to have told the truth, but then that holds for every factor you see about a person when using a dating app. Dating apps did not, of course, exist when I was dating, which is a good thing. The Professor had best stay alive because I'm not sure I want to have to consider using one now.

New Zealand just held the biggest live act in the world since the dawn of the pandemic. The band Six60 played for 50,000 in Auckland. It must be nice to be an island. I was about to say that I wondered how many years it might be before we had such an event here but then remembered that there has been at least one baseball game with a stadium filled to capacity. The limiting factor on a concert may be if the lead artist or group is willing to do such an event. 

Here in the US, almost 8 percent of people who got their first Pfizer or Moderna shots missed their second ones. Some skipped the second shot deliberately, out of fear of the side effects. Others think they are sufficiently protected by one shot and do not need a second. In some cases, the person went for a second shot and, usually in the case of shots at a pharmacy, the correct vaccine was not available. In the case of college students, they may leave to move home in the three or four weeks between shots. From the start of vaccinations, public health experts have warned that this might occur. The good news is that one shot gives you some protection. The bad news is that one shot may leave you more susceptible to variants. It is also not clear how long the protection from a single shot might last. Actually, 92 percent of people returning for a second shot is a good percentage. Only 75 percent of people come back for a second vaccination against shingles.  

Case rates continue to stay high in the US; there were over 50,000 new cases Saturday. Case rates now are similar to those seen in the second wave over the summer. Here's the big "but." The average number of vaccine doses given each day peaked at 3.38 million but is now down to 2.86 million. Dr. Fauci has advised that restrictions should remain in place until new cases stabilize at10,000 per day or lower. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington says that this won't happen by August 1. A Johns Hopkins epidemiologist described restrictions as a "pause button," noting that pressing "play" brings the virus back with a vengeance. 

In the hot spot of Michigan, cases are peaking among the young. One ER doctor said he was putting more patients in their 20s, 30s, and 40s on oxygen or life support than at any other time in the pandemic. The British variant is driving the increase; it is more contagious and more severe. Young people are out and about more and are less likely to have been vaccinated. 

Internationally, Thailand's case load is spiraling up, and Brazil just reported its deadliest month yet. India reported 349,691 new cases on Sunday, setting a record for something like the fifth day in a row. The US has said it will offer assistance in the form of extra help to healthcare workers. It is not clear if this might include more vaccine doses. As of Saturday, at least 1,002,938,540 vaccine doses have been administered in 207 countries and territories. On Friday, though, there were 893,000 new cases with India accounting for a third. The high-income countries, home to 16 percent of the world's population, have given 47 percent of all doses. Only 0.2 percent of doses have been given in low-income countries. 

Australian immunologists and virologists are questioning the ability of the population to achieve herd immunity, asking if it is even possible. Issues include immunity waning over time as additional variants evolve. The situation could be similar to influenza, with the vaccine giving a baseline level of immunity and decreasing the severity of any virus caught but not getting rid of the virus. The scientists suggest that herd immunity might be more of a general principle than a specific target.

Want to go on a cruise? The CDC has issued a set of technical guidelines to help cruise companies prepare ships to start sailing in line with the new regulations. The Cruise Lines International Association, though, says that the guidelines are "so burdensome and ambiguous that no clear path forward or timetable can be discerned." The Senators from Florida and one of the two from Alaska (not Lisa Murkowski) have introduced a Cruise Act bill that would revoke the CDC's conditional sail order and require new guidance. The state of Florida has also sued the federal government over cruise regulations. 

And finally, a man in Mallorca has been arrested on suspicion of assault for going to work and a gym knowing that he was positive for covid-19. In those two places, he is said to have infected 22 people. And people wonder why I locked myself down for over a year. That man could have a kindred spirit anywhere.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 283

We saw the conjunction plus one day last night; it was pretty darned impressive. The photos I took with my iPhone weren't great, but they were better than the ones I tried through my Canon PowerShot SX50 HS. Here's the best of the phone shots (it's also posted to Facebook, so some may have seen it before).

The darker lines are what you may have thought they might be, tree branches. We were watchingfrom both our second-floor and first-floor decks, and they aren't taller than the trees. We're going to go down the road a bit to try for a tree-less view tonight assuming the clouds don't go beyond the wispy they currently are. We don't have a telescope, but Son #1's rifle sights worked so well that we could see some of the moons of Jupiter. Saturn's rings weren't visible, but that probably would have been asking too much. 

2020 has turned out to be the deadliest year in US history. We're going to have somewhere around 3.2 million deaths or at least 400,000 more than we had in 2019. Right now, someone in the US is dying from covid-19 every 33 seconds. Every. 33. Seconds. That's close to two people per minute, 120 people per hour. Yes, we've made America great again.

Taking the pandemic in a humorous direction, yesterday's New York Times ran a column by Megan Nolan with the title "The Joys of Frivolous Sex." It can be difficult to hook up for frivolous sex when the bars and clubs are closed and you can't stroll the sidewalks. Some countries took that into account when dealing with the pandemic. From the column:

"In Holland, officials advised coming to an arrangement with a sex buddy. Denmark's health chief said, 'Sex is good, sex is healthy. As with any other human contact, there is a rick of infection. But of course one must be able to have sex.' Whether you agree or disagree, at least these countries were capable of addressing what was a serious concern for many of their citizens."

I'm not sure I want to imagine what The Lame Duck might have to say on this topic. Shudder. 

Speaking of The Lame Duck, this morning's Guardian included this line:

"It means a cloud of uncertainty over what Trump is still capable of and how to assess the threat level."

He is still focused on overturning the election results, now discussing how to get the House of Representatives to throw out the electoral votes from certain states. He's also handing out pardons right and left. Pardons, like executive orders, do not require approval or ratification by any other body. It's pure and simple executive power, and that's right up on the top of The Duck's list for Santa. 

At least The Duck isn't Vladimir Putin, who signed a bill granting lifetime immunity to former Russian presidents and their families, immunity that covers anything they may have done or will do in their lifetime. It's not term-limited. Before, they were only immune in terms of crimes committed while they were in office. This immunity makes them exempt from questioning, searches, or arrests. The Lame Duck would not need to pardon The Ducklings. This would cover them as well as himself.

And on the nature front, Norwegian lemmings are evidently "bloodthirsty, hairy berserkers.' You think we have problems getting along.

Time to go assess the cloud cover to see if it's worth Son #2's time to come out from town. Tomorrow, it's supposed to rain all day, so this may be our last chance to get a close-up view.