The View from the Hermitage, Day 448

There was a thought-provoking article in The Washington Post's Outlook section this morning presenting evidence that the coronavirus did not originate man-made from the virology lab in Wuhan. You can read it at https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/virus-origins-nature-lab/2021/06/03/dd50eb62-c4a9-11eb-93f5-ee9558eecf4b_story.html. Son #1 reminded me, though, that the virus could be one being studied at the Wuhan Lab that was released accidentally. One point in the article is that the coronavirus had some flaws that would not have been there had it been engineered to do harm. I don't want to think about what the last 18 months would have been like had the virus been intentionally strengthened.

There is some question of how well the covid vaccines work for people with immune deficiencies. It's estimated that there are some six million people taking immuno-suppresants that could interfere with the vaccine. The results are mixed, though. One study, on patients taking certain drugs to treat ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease, showed "robust antibody responses" to both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. A second study, though, found that 46 percent of transplant recipients had no antibody responses after two doses of either vaccine. A third study concerned patients with conditions such as lupus, psoriasis, and inflammatory bowel disease treated with two types of drugs--glucocorticoids and B-cell depleting agents. Both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were impaired in terms of producing an immune response. Finally, two patients followed the Pfizer vaccine with the Johnson & Johnson one. One had a positive result as antibody levels rose; the other had no response. 

XPot spoke last night at a GOP convention in North Carolina and was introduced as "our president." As expected, his punching bag was Anthony Fauci. He called Dr. Fauci "not a great doctor but a great promoter" adding "but he's been wrong on almost every issue and he was wrong on Wuhan and the lab also." XPot also called on China to pay $10 trillion in reparations for having released the virus.

As the US begins to return to normality, hotels and concerts are selling out, rental cars and rental homes are being booked more often and for longer periods, and visits to museums and events are soaring. Also soaring are the prices of goods for which there is a shortage. At the same time, many restaurants and bars can't hire enough staff. Said the owner of a McDonald's franchise, "You've got a lot of people with a lot of money, and they're out there shopping. And then, on the flip side, we're scrambling for help." In terms of any full return to normality, a WHO official says that eradicating covid-19 is not a "reasonable target" and that people will have to learn how to live with it. "The virus isn't going away any time soon, there will be variants emerging."   

The covid numbers coming out of Italy continue to improve. On Saturday, there were 57 deaths, 2,436 new cases, 5,193 hospitalizations, and 788 people in the ICU. Sunday, there were 51 deaths, 2,274 new cases, 4,963 hospitalizations, and 774 people in the ICU. Numbers in India are also improving albeit slowly. India reported 114,460 new cases Sunday, the lowest in 60 days. The area around New Delhi, the capital, will ease restrictions starting Monday. At the same time, though, officials say they are preparing for a third wave.

Preparing for a third, or fourth, wave is not unreasonable, especially in Africa where only about three percent of 1.2 billion people have gotten even one dose of vaccine. WHO said last week that eight countries had seen cases surge 30 percent or more in the previous seven days. Normality will take longer than a lot of people think, because no one is safe until everyone is safe.