The View from the Hermitage, Day 453

My laptop has apparently recovered from yesterday's bout of wonkiness. Here's hoping she (her name is Twiggy) keeps on humming. I can also see again! There was clearly a problem with the new glasses I picked up several weeks ago; trying to see through them was almost as bad as trying to see without them. It took a small bit of doing, but I got the optical office to remake or replace the right lens. I picked the new pair up today, and the difference is very real. Now they're going to remake or replace the lens on my re-done sunglasses because they're just as bad as my clear specs were. Life is good!

The CDC is worried about a developing lag in routine childhood vaccinations, saying it could be "a serious public health threat." It has the potential to derail the school re-openings planned for the coming year. While we're on kids, vaccine advisers at the FDA are debating how urgent it might be to vaccinate kids under the age of 12. Specifically, what detailed information or data do they need to make a decision? Some on the advisory panel say that kids are at such a low risk, there is no rush to make a decision. Others on the panel worry about fall and winter surges. The FDA needs to advise pharmaceutical companies what kids of clinical trials and data they would need to make a decision. Those who want this started now note that giving Emergency Use Authorization for kids does not mean that it has to be given to them. Having the EUA in place means the public health folks would be ready to go if need be. 

One worry with a vaccine for kids is the possibility of heart inflammation--myocarditis or pericarditis. There have been few cases in 12- to 15-year olds. For those aged 16 or 17, there have been 79 cases out of the 2.3 million vaccine doses given; the normal rate for that age group would be two to 19. For young people 18 to 24, there have been 196 cases out of the 9.8 million doses given. Normal would be eight to 83. Some argue that there being few cases in the kids just older than 12 means there would be fewer in kids younger. 

More and more companies have employees returning to the office or are planning for that. Some will keep letting employees work from home on a full-time or part-time fashion. Part of planning for the return is figuring out how to handle the vaccine issue with employees. The worry about vaccine mandates is the possibility of lawsuits, political upheaval, and enforcement. Safety is obviously also an issue. So far, about two-thirds of companies have not developed a vaccine policy. Tuesday, Goldman Sachs gave employees two days to report their vaccination status. They say they will not require proof but told employees that lying could result in disciplinary action including termination. 

The reopening of the cruise industry could be going better. On the inaugural sailing of the Celebrity Millenium, all passengers had to have been vaccinated as well as show proof of a negative test within 72 hours of sailing. Still, two passengers who were traveling together tested positive. All passengers will take an antigen test as part of disembarkation. The cruise started and ended in St. Maarten because Florida won't let cruise lines require vaccination. And two passengers not traveling together tested positive on a Mediterranean cruise. Passengers were not required to show proof of vaccination for that cruise but did have to show two negative tests before boarding.

Bitcoin 2021 met in Miami for a week of panels, parties, networking, and deal making. It was the first major business conference since the pandemic began. In the aftermath, attendees are starting to report positive tests. Most of the events at Bitcoin 2021 took place in a large, crowded warehouse and neither vaccines nor masks were required. This week, the first major trade show, The World of Concrete, is happening in Las Vegas. There are typically 60,000 people there. Any bets on how the aftermath of that one is going to look?

The Euro 2020 soccer championship is opening with a game in Rome. Subsequent games will be in 11 cities around Europe. There will be crowd limitations, staggered arrival times, social distancing, and lots of hand sanitizer. Rome will also require fans to show documentation of vaccination, a negative test, or proof of having recovered from a case of covid. If this does not go smoothly and safely, it will validate the decision of the IOC not to allow spectators in Tokyo.

The seven-day average number of cases in the US yesterday was 13,409, an eight percent drop from the day before. Since January 2020, at least one in 10 people who live in the US have been infected, and at least one in 554 have died. And while the US case numbers are dropping, it has taken less than six months for the world to record 1.88 million covid deaths, about the same as last year's total.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 406

Fifty-eight weeks! Hooyah! So here's a news item that stretches pretty far back in the annals of the coronavirus pandemic over those 58 weeks. A Florida man and his three sons have been indicted for fraudulently marketing and selling a toxic industrial bleach mixture as a cure for covid-19. Not only does this solution cure covid, it also cures cancer, Alzheimer's, diabetes, autism, malaria, hepatitis, Parkinson's, herpes, HIV/AIDS, and some other medical issues even if it seems as if there are no other medical issues in need of a cure. They sold tens of thousands of bottles of what they called a "miracle mineral solution" earning more than a million dollars in the process. They actually wrote XPot in April 2020 promoting their product as "a wonderful detox that can kill 99 percent of the pathogens in the body."

They sold their magical elixir through a business called Genesis II Church of Health and Healing which they admitted had nothing to do with religion. They said they had set the business up "to legalize the use of Miracle Mineral Solution" and to avoid "going to jail." After being indicted, they threatened the presiding judge and warned that if the government tried to prevent their distribution of the elixir, they would "pick up guns" and instigate "a Waco." And pick up guns they could have done as multiple loaded firearms were found on their property including a pump-action shotgun concealed in a custom-made violin case. If convicted, they could face life in prison. I wonder if there might be a market for the elixir there.

On the lighter side of covid, several dating apps have added covid vaccination status as a selection factor, saying that over 60 percent of people would not consider dating someone not getting vaccinated. You are, of course, trusting someone to have told the truth, but then that holds for every factor you see about a person when using a dating app. Dating apps did not, of course, exist when I was dating, which is a good thing. The Professor had best stay alive because I'm not sure I want to have to consider using one now.

New Zealand just held the biggest live act in the world since the dawn of the pandemic. The band Six60 played for 50,000 in Auckland. It must be nice to be an island. I was about to say that I wondered how many years it might be before we had such an event here but then remembered that there has been at least one baseball game with a stadium filled to capacity. The limiting factor on a concert may be if the lead artist or group is willing to do such an event. 

Here in the US, almost 8 percent of people who got their first Pfizer or Moderna shots missed their second ones. Some skipped the second shot deliberately, out of fear of the side effects. Others think they are sufficiently protected by one shot and do not need a second. In some cases, the person went for a second shot and, usually in the case of shots at a pharmacy, the correct vaccine was not available. In the case of college students, they may leave to move home in the three or four weeks between shots. From the start of vaccinations, public health experts have warned that this might occur. The good news is that one shot gives you some protection. The bad news is that one shot may leave you more susceptible to variants. It is also not clear how long the protection from a single shot might last. Actually, 92 percent of people returning for a second shot is a good percentage. Only 75 percent of people come back for a second vaccination against shingles.  

Case rates continue to stay high in the US; there were over 50,000 new cases Saturday. Case rates now are similar to those seen in the second wave over the summer. Here's the big "but." The average number of vaccine doses given each day peaked at 3.38 million but is now down to 2.86 million. Dr. Fauci has advised that restrictions should remain in place until new cases stabilize at10,000 per day or lower. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington says that this won't happen by August 1. A Johns Hopkins epidemiologist described restrictions as a "pause button," noting that pressing "play" brings the virus back with a vengeance. 

In the hot spot of Michigan, cases are peaking among the young. One ER doctor said he was putting more patients in their 20s, 30s, and 40s on oxygen or life support than at any other time in the pandemic. The British variant is driving the increase; it is more contagious and more severe. Young people are out and about more and are less likely to have been vaccinated. 

Internationally, Thailand's case load is spiraling up, and Brazil just reported its deadliest month yet. India reported 349,691 new cases on Sunday, setting a record for something like the fifth day in a row. The US has said it will offer assistance in the form of extra help to healthcare workers. It is not clear if this might include more vaccine doses. As of Saturday, at least 1,002,938,540 vaccine doses have been administered in 207 countries and territories. On Friday, though, there were 893,000 new cases with India accounting for a third. The high-income countries, home to 16 percent of the world's population, have given 47 percent of all doses. Only 0.2 percent of doses have been given in low-income countries. 

Australian immunologists and virologists are questioning the ability of the population to achieve herd immunity, asking if it is even possible. Issues include immunity waning over time as additional variants evolve. The situation could be similar to influenza, with the vaccine giving a baseline level of immunity and decreasing the severity of any virus caught but not getting rid of the virus. The scientists suggest that herd immunity might be more of a general principle than a specific target.

Want to go on a cruise? The CDC has issued a set of technical guidelines to help cruise companies prepare ships to start sailing in line with the new regulations. The Cruise Lines International Association, though, says that the guidelines are "so burdensome and ambiguous that no clear path forward or timetable can be discerned." The Senators from Florida and one of the two from Alaska (not Lisa Murkowski) have introduced a Cruise Act bill that would revoke the CDC's conditional sail order and require new guidance. The state of Florida has also sued the federal government over cruise regulations. 

And finally, a man in Mallorca has been arrested on suspicion of assault for going to work and a gym knowing that he was positive for covid-19. In those two places, he is said to have infected 22 people. And people wonder why I locked myself down for over a year. That man could have a kindred spirit anywhere.