The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 438 (938)

Japan boasts the fewest cumulative covid deaths per capita of any major country, one in every 2,758 people. We aren't doing nearly as well clocking in at one in every 315 people. The number one risk factor for covid death is advanced age. In that regard, around 25 percent of the Japanese population is age 65 or older. Here? Only 15 percent, and they still are leaving us in the dust. Given their much higher population density, we look even worse. The Japanese government never mandated masks, though wearing them is much more the norm there than it is here. The government did begin distributing masks very early on in the pandemic, in spring 2020. At the same time, they started the 3Cs campaign. Those Cs would be CLOSED SPACES with poor ventilation, CROWDED PLACES with many people nearby, and CLOSE-CONTACT SETTINGS such as close-range conversations. They even had a graphic showing a Venn diagram noting that the union of the three Cs was the most dangerous place to be. 

Looking ahead, at least half the people in Japan plan to use masks indefinitely. On the vaccine front, 83 percent of the population got vaccinated "promptly," compared with our 68 percent over a much longer time. Booster-wise, 95 percent of the Japanese population has been boosted. Here, some 40.8 percent of people have gotten one booster, and 42 percent have gotten two. It's a good thing it's not a race unless it turns out really to be one.

Several infectious disease and epidemiology folks were asked about the pandemic's being over. One answered by posing the question of whether we are in a manageable pandemic and noting that what happens this winter will be telling. The important metrics were said to be healthcare capacity, deaths, and predictability. Another person said that he would look at all-cause mortality and ask whether more people are dying than usual. This metric was often cited in the pandemic's initial months but not so much lately.

A report on the JAMA Network said that with Omicron, the five-day isolation period after symptom onset was totally inadequate for most people. It is essential to have negative antigen tests. In other words, my playing hermit for the three weeks of positive tests while waiting for two negative tests 48 hours apart was the right thing to do. I am lucky, being retired and somewhat anti-social. Staying out of circulation for three weeks was not the issue for me that it would be for some people.