The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 187 (687)

Leading up to the Olympics, over 8,000 people had arrived in Beijing as of Saturday, 211 of whom tested positive for covid. Some experts say in a negative tone that China's "closed loop" and strict covid rules may be better at keeping covid from escaping to the outside rather than protecting the people inside the loop from becoming infected. I thought that was the whole point of the bubble or closed loop. It fits with China's zero covid policy; the counts inside can go as high possible as long as the count outside stays as low as possible. Locals volunteering or otherwise being inside the closed look won't be able to return to their homes until they've quarantined. Quarantine for someone testing positive inside the bubble could be for as long as five weeks. Even the trash will be isolated in keeping with China's opinion that some cases have come from virus on an object or surface.

Austria is ending the lockdown of all unvaccinated people even as it prepares to approve a vaccine mandate for all adults. As of Monday, unvaccinated people can leave their homes. They still won't be allowed to enter nonessential shops, restaurants, or cultural institutions for two weeks. Once the vaccine mandate is in place, failure to provide proof of vaccination could mean a fine of $4,000.

It did not surprise me to see stats counting US adults by their political party and vaccination status. Of Democrats, only nine percent are unvaccinated, 29 percent have had shots but no booster, and 62 percent have had a full set of shots including a booster. For Republicans, the percentages in those same three categories would be 36 percent, 30 percent, and 32 percent. For independents, 22 percent, 39 percent, and 37 percent. In other words, more Republican adults are unvaccinated than have gotten the full shots plus booster. Vaccination makes a huge difference, and so does a booster. The weekly average numbers of deaths per 100,000 people in October and November 2021 (in other words, pre-Omicron) were 7.8 for unvaccinated, 0.6 for vaccinated but no booster, and 0.1 for those with vaccinations including a booster. 

I have learned a bit more about the Omicron family. There are actually four members discovered so far. BA.1 is what we know as "Omicron." BA.2 is the "stealth" variant. There is also a BA.3 that appears to be the product of viral sex, with BA.1 and BA.2 simultaneously infecting the same person with their combination making a new viral hybrid. Finally, there is something called BA.1.1.529 about which I could find nothing but a mention. Right now, BA.2 makes up 82 percent of cases in Denmark, nine percent of cases in the UK, and eight percent of cases here in the US. While Omicron numbers are dropping in most states, the emergence of BA.2 could slow those downward trends.

Of the pandemic, he governor of New Jersey says, "We're not going to manage this to zero. We have to learn how to live with this." He is not the only governor feeling this way. It may take a while, though. Hospitals are still full; some are getting fuller. Deaths are still rising. Once the Omicrons have had their way with us, that endemic philosophy might be the way to go as long, that is, as no other, more serious variant has emerged. And more variants will emerge as long as so much of the world remains unvaccinated. 

My free covid tests courtesy of the federal government are supposed to arrive in today's mail. Here's hoping we have no reason to use them any time soon. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 186 (686)

I'm not sure why I had not considered this before, but covid and mandates have become issues in many divorce and/or custody cases. For example, if an ex-spouse is unvaccinated, can the vaccinated ex-spouse deny the unvaccinated one visitation? How about shared custody and the vaccination of the children? What if one parent wants the children vaccinated and one doesn't? In some cases, these issues have actually gotten couples talking more, and are a good thing. In other cases, it may be up to a court.

States that got hit by Omicron in late December are starting to see the number of new infections decline, though the declining numbers may still be taxing the system. Hospitalizations may be peaking, though deaths, which lag behind infections even more than hospitalizations, are still rising. Some experts think that the Omicron wave could crest in late February, though most believe other variants are coming given how little of the world is vaccinated. An epidemiologist at UCLA offers the advice, "This is a choose-your-own-adventure story, and the ending is not written yet. Nobody is going to be able to tell us what will happen."

Here in the US, adult vaccinations have basically plateaued. People not yet vaccinated are probably not going to get vaccinated. Also of concern, relatively few children ages five through 11 have been vaccinated. Nationally, 18.8 percent of these children are fully vaccinated; 28.1 percent have gotten one dose of vaccine. Vaccination rate varies wildly between states, though. In Vermont, 52 percent of children ages five through 11 are fully vaccinated; in Mississippi, only six percent are. 

Not a lot today, but after a late night playing Cards Against Humanity with friends (it was worth the risk), I'm moving a bit more slowly than usual today. Having gotten somewhat comfortable with my Instant Pot, I am introducing myself to our convection oven. I made a meat loaf several nights ago, and tonight have a pork loin roast going. It's smelling pretty tasty, so I think I'll go handle the side dishes. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 185 (685)

There's some new and disturbing--at least to me--news on long covid. Breathlessness is a common symptom of long covid patients. Findings from a pilot study of 36 patients suggest covid may cause microscopic damage to lungs, damage that is not detected in routine tests. In other words, the efficiency of the lungs ain't what it used to be. The pilot study looked at three groups. One was patients diagnosed with long covid who had normal CT scans of their lings. Some of these patients had had long covid for a year. A second group was patients who had been hospitalized with covid over three months earlier. Finally, there was a healthy control group. Patients inhaled xenon gas while undergoing an MRI. Even when all other tests were normal, long covid patients showed "significantly impaired gas transfer" from their lungs to their bloodstream. I'm concerned enough about what my asthma does to my lung function; this on top of that would not be pretty.

Some people talk about exposing themselves to Omicron to add a layer of natural immunity. This is not a good idea. It might be easier just to let Stealth Omicron or BA.2 find you. Early results peg it as being 1.5 times more transmissible than Omicron or BA.1. There are 127 cases of BA.2 known nationwide. It's been found in half the states. So if you've missed out on Omicron, maybe its evil cousin will get you.

As part of a protest against vaccine mandates, convoys of truckers are heading to Ottawa from as far away as British Columbia. Police estimate that 1,000 to 2,000 people will attend the demonstration. It may be that Canadians are too nice for demonstrations of the magnitude they had in Europe; if I remember correctly, one protest there had 40,000 participants. Americans Elon Musk, Donald Trump Jr., and Joe Rogan have voiced their support for the Ottawa protest. The Canadian Trucking Alliance said in a statement that it "strongly disapproves" of protests on public roadways, highways, and bridges.

Many public events were canceled or scaled back in 2020 and 2021. Many of those same events are happening in 2022 though there are some differences from 2019 and earlier. The Winter Olympics are a go in Beijing though without public ticket sales and with American announcers working from studios in Connecticutt. Carnival 2022 has been canceled in Rio de Janeiro. Some social events typically held at the time of the Super Bowl have been canceled, but the game itself will go on as ever. Mardi Gras parades and floats are back In 2021, houses rather than floats were decorated. Still on are the National Cherry Blossom Festival, South by Southwest, and the Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival held in the California desert.

The Olympics are, of the events listed above, of the longest duration and widest participation. How they turn out may say a lot about where the coronavirus leads us on its road to endemicity. The Games will take place in a bubble with everyone within that bubble tested daily as well as upon arrival at the airport. Friday, 29 of the 736 athletes and team officials who arrived tested positive. Other athletes and officials are delaying arrival because they tested positive before their departure from home. Before those people would be admitted to the Games, they must show negative test results on four consecutive days and then spend a fifth, buffer day. Those tests could present a bit of a problem, though. They have to be PCR tests, which can return positive results for weeks after someone stops being contagious. Teams affected by coronavirus so far include the US men's bobsled and skeleton team, the Norwegian cross country ski team, the German skeleton team, and the Russian bobsled and figure skating teams. The daily covid test results may be more interesting this year than the event results are.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 184 (684)

The US has now donated over 400 million vaccine doses to 112 countries. While this total falls short of the 1.2 billion doses the US has promised to donate, it is said to be more than five times larger than that of any other country. Vaccine inequity remains an issue even though 10 billion doses of vaccine have been administered globally. The US has administered five times as many extra doses (86 million) as the total number of doses given in all of Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation. In the UK, over 300 leading scientists have criticized the prime minister for not doing enough to boost vaccination levels worldwide. So many people not being vaccinated increases the opportunities for new variants to arise.

Dr. Fauci says that scientists are working on a "pan-coronavirus" vaccine to induce "broad and durable protection against coronaviruses that are known, and some that are even at this point, unknown." Don't hold your breath, though. Such a vaccine is still years away.

The head of Paris hospitals has asked whether people who refuse to be vaccinated should continue to have their covid treatments covered by public health insurance. That mere suggestion is not going over at all well. There are currently about 30,000 covid patients in French hospitals. Seventy percent of the patients in Paris and Bordeaux ICUs are unvaccinated. In Marseille and Nice, over 90 percent of ICU patients are unvaccinated. The cost to French taxpayers of one day in an ICU is $5,615.17 while the cost of one dose of vaccine is $22.32. As several people I know would say, "Do the math." An ambulance driver calls for the national health service to continue to cover all covid patients, noting, "If we enter the spiral of patient selection, are we to make smokers pay for the lung cancer treatment or punish the obese because they eat too much?"

As a result of the pandemic, American adults and adolescents have missed more than 37 million routine vaccinations for ailments such as flu, hepatitis, and chickenpox. There are state legislators of a political party I will not name who have actually suggested doing away with all the vaccinations required for school attendance. If passing on the covid vaccine is okay, why not pass on all the other vaccines? 

Sarah Palin has been going out for dinner despite having tested positive for covid. I can't help but imagine that her words of a month ago might prove to be prophetic. "It'll be over my dead body that I'll have to get a shot."

Finally, I found a fun word in today's stroll through the news. It's the opposite of "immunocompromised," that is, "immunocompetent." It sort of rolls off the tongue with a bounce on the final "t." Being competent at being immune. Is that something we need to learn to be? An interesting word to think about while watching the snow fall.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 183 (683)

There seems to be less and less coronavirus news each day, and what there is is often detail-heavy in medicine or economics, two areas I often feel uncomfortable summarizing. I handle human interest much better than technical writing. 

What's best going forward--getting vaccinated people to get boosters or getting unvaccinated people to get a first shot of vaccine? I lean toward what I think is the harder of the two, getting unvaccinated people vaccinated. The people who have not yet gotten any shot are probably not going to get one. I think we've passed the stage of people going back and forth on getting vaccinated or not. Being vaccinated even without a booster, gives the body an edge in avoiding covid, even the Omicron variant. If we want to approach anything like herd immunity or make covid truly endemic, having as many people unvaccinated as we do will slow the process down significantly.

Over half of all patients with covid in hospitals in England are being treated primarily for something else. The covid part of their condition means that they need to be kept separate from people with similar conditions but who do not also have covid. A space crunch to go with the staff crunch. An asymptomatic patient can still infect someone without covid, quite easily if the form of the covid happens to be Omicron. It seems to be more contagious than even measles.

Back to the people who don't want to get vaccinated. If they speak German, they might want to look into Paraiso Verde, a 4,000-acre gated community being built in Paraguay. While it began pre-pandemic, in 2016, it has since attracted a large number of "covid denialists." According to its website, it is "... by far the largest urbanization and settlement project in South America" and a refuge from "socialist trends of current economic and political situations worldwide" not to mention "5G, chemtrails, flouridated water, mandatory vaccinations, and healthcare mandates." So far most of the residents are German, Austrian, or Swiss. The community's founder has spoken of "preserving Germanic peoples from the presence of Islam" and on a now-deleted website questioned the blame allocated to Germany for World War II.

A friend told me that she and her family accept that anyone can get Omicron and have adopted an "is it worth the risk" philosophy. IIWTR to go for a walk in the park? Yes. IIWTR to go to a restaurant and eat inside? Possibly not. It forces, well, encourages, you to think about what you are considering doing along with how risky it might be. I do like this and may give it a try someday when I actually have a reason to go out.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 182 (682)

The Olympic Games in Beijing loom on next week's horizon. So far, 106 out of 3,695 people connected to the Games have tested positive for covid. Two of those are either athletes or team officials. The two million residents of the Beijing district where half of Beijing's cases have been found is undergoing a third round of testing since last weekend. Testing is done by combining samples from a group of 10 people. If the collective sample is negative, all 10 are good to go. If it is positive, the 10 people are individually tested. One source reported the current Beijing outbreak as being of the Delta variant. If so, the gods help them when Omicron hits.

I read an essay based on what the writer called the "anti-calendar" in which she had recorded everything that her family did not do because of the pandemic. Graduations and other celebrations missed, possibly funerals as well. I am kicking myself for not thinking of doing that. I don't really do a lot of things out in the world, but it would still have been an interesting undertaking. 

Many European countries are ending some or all of their covid restrictions. The Dutch government defended its decision in a statement: "Despite the risks and uncertainties, the government believes it is responsible to take this big step. Because prolonging the measures that so restrict our daily lives is also harmful to people's health and to society as a whole." Compared to the US, many of the countries relaxing restrictions are much more vaccinated: Denmark (81 percent), France (76 percent), Netherlands (72 percent), UK (71 percent), US (63 percent). As for boosters, the rate in the US is slowing and currently stands at only 40 percent. 

A study published in the journal Cell reported four factors that can be identified early in someone's coronavirus infection that appear to correlate with an increased risk of long covid. Those factors would be (1) the level of coronavirus RNA in blood early in the infection; (2) the presence of certain antibodies that mistakenly attack tissues in the body; (3) reactivation of an Epstein-Barr virus; and (4) Type 2 diabetes. The first two seem to be more labor-intensive to check than the last two, and given the current strain on the hospital system, I can justify their not being checked. 

Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston has refused to do a heart transplant on a patient who won't be vaccinated against covid. They note that organs should go first to people with a better chance post-surgery of surviving and not being vaccinated against covid greatly cuts that chance of long-term survival. I can't say that I blame them. Transplantation is accompanied by serious suppression of the immune system to ensure the body does not attack the donated tissue. Without vaccination that seems to me to be inviting the virus to visit. I know a potential donor can't specify the sort of person they would like to give an organ to, but I wouldn't want one of mine going to someone who won't take care of it. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 181 (681)

Son of Omicron? Omicron: The Sequel? Omicron, Part 2? How about we try BA.2 otherwise known as "Stealth Omicron." BA.2 is a sublineage of BA.1, that is, Omicron. BA.2 can only be detected by PCR testing, but has already been found in over 40 countries including Denmark, Sweden., Norway, and Singapore. It makes up about half of Denmark's covid cases. BA.2 cases are, right now, doubling every four days. So far, it is classified as a "variant under investigation." If it ever moves on to become a  "variant of concern," we may be in trouble.

A new survey reveals that 84 percent of Americans like the free masks and test kits the government is providing. That 84 percent reflects the views of vaccinated Americans. Forty-four percent of the survey respondents had already ordered free tests.This included half of vaccinated respondents but just 20 percent of unvaccinated people. 

Survey results are popular today. A survey of 4,411 people conducted this month asked how worried people were about getting sick from covid within the next year. Interestingly, respondents ages 65 and older were the least concerned despite the fact that three out of every four covid deaths recently are people in that age range. The survey also asked whether people would make changes to their normal activities to prioritize safety and public health or continue normal activity as much as possible. Prioritizing safest and public health was cited by 65 percent of Democrat respondents and 30 percent of Republicans. Flip those numbers on the other end of the continuum. For Democrats, 30 percent will continue normal activity compared with 65 percent of Republicans. In terms of how worried a person was about getting covid within the next year, vaccinated people, boosted or not, were more concerned than unvaccinated people. Interesting or not?

S(n?)ide remark on vaccinations. There was an anti-vaccine, anti-mandate protest in Washington, DC this past weekend. A reporter asked one of the protesters whether she thought she would ever get vaccinated. Her reply was "I'd die first." The obvious comeback to that is "Yes, yes you will."

Both Democrats and Republicans are concerned about children falling behind academically and socially if schools move from in-person to virtual. However, Democrats are more worried about children catching covid while attending school in person. 

While the number of Omicron cases is on a downward trend in the US, the number of deaths is as high as it was during the Delta wave. As noted above, 75 percent of the deaths are among people ages 65 and older. Unvaccinated people are 100 times more likely to die from covid than those people who have gotten three doses of either Moderna or Pfizer. 

On the global front, Denmark and the Netherlands are dropping all covid restrictions despite having record numbers of infections. As of the start of February, European Union residents with valid vaccination certificates, certificates of recent recovery, or negative test results not older than 72 hours will be able to travel between countries with no quarantine requirements. An Australian aid ship going to Tonga has 23 people who have tested positive. This is of significant concern given that Tonga has only had one covid case, and that was in October. Looking at the Olympics from just a week away, 55 people have tested positive for covid upon arrival in China. Another 35 Olympic personnel on the ground have tested positive. Participants who test positive and are asymptomatic will quarantine inside the Olympic bubble. Others will go to one of two hospitals. 

It seems that more and more of what I read about the ongoing pandemic repeats itself over and over. I am interested in how the Olympics will come off; I don't really have a good feeling about them. Stealth Omicron is a new topic, one I hope not to pursue further. Vaccination rates don't seem to be changing much any longer. Those who want to be vaccinated are and those who don't want to be aren't. It will be telling to see what happens in Europe after covid restrictions are dropped. I guess it's all less same old same old than I thought.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 180 (680)

Two years ago today, the first case of the novel coronavirus was found in France. In the 732 days since, 1.7 million people have died in Europe. That's 99 people dying every hour of every day. I have a hard time picturing that; I really have to stop and think about it.

The director for WHO's European region says that the pandemic is entering a "new phase" and that the rapid spread of Omicron offers "plausible hope for stabilization and normalization." At the same time, the head of WHO offers, "There are different scenarios for how the pandemic could play out and how the acute phase could end. But it's dangerous to assume that Omicron will be the last variant or that we are in the endgame. On the contrary, globally, the conditions are ideal for more variants to emerge."

I have read or seen various assessments of POTUS's first year. One that centered on the coronavirus cited three key areas:

The White House bet that the pandemic would follow a straight line instead of the sharp turns it did take. The White House did not anticipate the nature and severity of variants even after warnings from abroad. There was a very tight, perhaps too tight, focus on vaccinations.

There was no sustained focus on testing. The supply of at-home tests should have increased when the Delta variant appeared. 

POTUS worked hard to try to avoid a Republican revolt over masks, mandates, and the like. Using force more than persuasion might have been a better strategy.

The distribution of 400 million N95 masks has begun; masks will be available at a number of local pharmacies and community health centers. It is "the largest deployment of personal protective equipment in US history," with masks coming from the Strategic National Stockpile. Reading this, I wondered just what other deployments there have been of PPE. And just what is this "Strategic National Stockpile"? Answering that second question was easy. In terms of the first, well, read the Wikipedia article cited above.

Japan has had 146 pandemic deaths per million people compared with 2,590 deaths per million people in the US. What might we learn from Japan? Their goal all along has been to find ways to live with covid. Because Japanese law prohibits lockdowns, those were off the table at the outset. Instead, they adopted the strategy of telling people to avoid "the three C's." Those would be closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings. "Three C's" was the 2020 buzzword of the year in Japan. The Three C's are "attainable without being alarmist" and can outlast changing circumstances. Japanese officials still stress avoiding the Three C's whenever there is a surge.

Avoiding the Three C's seems like such a simple strategy and more specific than the whole social distancing strategy we've put forward here. Still, I don't think the strategy of avoiding the Three C's would fly here; it might be too simple. Did you see the crowds at the weekend's NFL playoff games? Or human interest photos in the newspaper or general interest magazine? Are we there yet? No.

 

 

 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 179 (679)

The CDC here has shortened the isolation and quarantine periods for people testing positive and for close contacts. New Zealand is lengthening them. Isolation for people testing positive is now 14 days, up from 10. Close contacts must isolate for 10 days rather than one week. The covid spread in New Zealand is higher than ever and could reach 1,000 cases in one day. The country is moving to red alert, meaning that businesses and schools stay open and domestic travel is permitted. However, there are mandates for mask-wearing, restrictions on gathering size--100 unless unvaccinated people are there in which case 25 is the limit--and vaccine passes needed to enter most non-essential businesses. The prime minister is postponing her wedding to comply with the tightened restrictions.

It's less than two weeks before the Olympics begin, and Olympic-bound athletes have been going all out to avoid covid. One snowboarder has not seen her family or friends other than her boyfriend since November. Some athletes have celebrated making the Olympic team via FaceTime. The eight members of the Canadian men's curling team live together and train only when the rink is closed and they are the only ones there. The American biathlon team is operating in "roommate pods." Some athletes are skipping extra competitions such as the X Games. An American speedskater explains, "We are playing Russian roulette every single day. You can take all the precautions, wash your hands, wear a mask, and somehow you can still get covid. In my opinion it is luck of the draw at this point."

Here in Virginia, only a couple of counties over, a woman has been charged with misdemeanor communicating an oral threat while on school property and released on a $5,000 bond. Speaking at Thursday night's school board meeting, she said, "My children will not come to school on Monday with a mask on, all right? That's not happening. And I will bring every single gun loaded and ready to ..." She was then cut off but on exiting the meeting added, "I'll see you all on Monday." 

Finally, are we there yet? Are things under control? Not really, says Dr. Fauci. "Control means you're not eliminating it, you're not eradicating it, but it gets down to such a low level that it's essentially integrated into the general respiratory infections that we have learned to live with. ... We'd like to get it down to that level where is doesn't disrupt us, in the sense of getting back to a degree of normality. ... That's the best-case scenario. We have got to be prepared for the worst-case scenario. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but we have to be prepared, which is, I think, that we get yet again another variant that has characteristics that would be problematic, like a high degree of transmissibility or a high degree of virulence."

To date myself, I'll offer that we're not all Bozos on this bus. As long as we keep scientists driving, I'm cool with going a bit farther. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 178 (678)

Cases may be going down in New York City and the Northeast, but locally, they're on the rise. The local health district just recorded its highest day ever, with 800 new cases. The local university's hospital has 131 covid patients, also a record. What goes up must come down, but it may take a while. Dr. Fauci has said that's it's hard to say what the next few months will be like. Under the best case scenario, we reach a point of "adequate control," though I realize that what may seem adequate for one group will not seem that way to another. Under the worst case scenario, "another surprise variant" emerges, one that may be even more transmissible and/or deadly. 

The likelihood that a case of Omicron will lead into long covid is still unknown, but there are a few points we've definitely learned about Omicron in its relatively short existence. Its incubation period is about three days, one or two faster than earlier versions of the virus. Among other things, this narrows the window in which to identify infection before it becomes transmissible. This is why the new recommendation is a rapid test two to four days after possible exposure followed by a second rapid test the following day. Omicron appears to cause less severe disease than Delta. Omicron sufferers are less likely to be hospitalized, put in an ICU, or put on a ventilator. The less severe nature could be because Omicron virus tends to stay above the lungs or because more of the people getting it have added protection from vaccination. 

Speaking of vaccination, the CDC has released some new figures. Unvaccinated people ages 65 and older are 49 times more likely to need hospitalization compared to people who have had boosters. Unvaccinated people in that age range are 17 times more likely to be hospitalized than vaccinated people who have not yet gotten a booster. The FDA has approved remdesivirfor high-risk patients not sick enough to be hospitalized. A problem, though, is that remedesivir needs to be given by intravenous infusion over three consecutive days. 

Around the world, Ireland is removing most covid restrictions and preparing for its first "real" St. Patrick's Day since 2019. Green beer will flow, I am sure. Beijing is now up to 24 local cases and locking down more sectors or businesses. The Olympics start in just under two weeks, under conditions China certainly did not foresee when they first bid on hosting the Games. Tens of thousands of people with plans to go to Japan now can't. The only people who can get in are citizens and returning foreign residents. Japan's residents aren't complaining; 88 percent believe the policy is "appropriate." Finally, Kiribati is a collection of atolls and small islands somewhere out in the South Pacific. The total population is around 119,000. Thanks to being islands and not very big ones at that, they've had but two cases of covid. They just started to open back up, and the first international flight in 10 months landed with 36 passengers who tested positive. Tarawa, the capital city, is going into lockdown. So much for thinking you could avoid covid on a deserted island; that only works if the island stays deserted.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 177 (677)

I'll be taking a break today. Something I thought would go quickly hasn't. The Professor and I had talked about getting all our important papers--wills, powers of attorney, etc.--organized so that were we to kick the bucket, Son #1, The Executor, could find thinks easily. There was more in that little metal box in the master closet than I thought. I'm about to do a final sorting to see just how many binders I might need to contain it all. Then there's the labeling. Unfortunately, I can't find my label maker. It's not where I thought it was. By the time I finish the sort and label process, I plan to put my feet up for a while and not start taking notes and writing.

For excitement, The Professor and I upgraded our cell phones yesterday. I went from an iPhone XS to a mini 13; The Professor went from ancient Samsung to an equivalent mini iPhone 13. His is black, and mine is red so as not to mix them up. I spent last evening trying to help him get things sorted out. There was a problem with the App Store or our connection. I was doing my best (hey, the 13 is new to me, too) to try to figure it out as he got more exasperated. We slept on it, and this morning the App Store behaved as it always had for me. The Professor has his Reverse Polish Logic calculator app, and I can get back to downloading my own apps. And to demonstrate just how ancient The Professor's Samsung was, I was given a $140 credit for my XS, while The Professor got a $10 credit for trading in his phone.

TGIF!

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 176 (676)

Omicron is milder than Delta and the variants preceding it, right? There are some experts who say that describing it as "mild" is not a good thing. The chief of cardiology at Northwestern University's Feinberg School of Medicine says, "What's mild about hospitals at or near the breaking point? What's mild about hundreds of healthcare workers per hospital out with COVID-19? What's mild about 1.3 million cases in the US just yesterday? What's mild about the rising titer of burnout? What's mild about an unprecedented number of children now ill and hospitalized with COVID-19? I think prudence would suggest that we reframe 'mild' and think more about 'self-limited.' We are likely at or near a plateau but how long will it last and how much more agony awaits?" Cheery, eh?

Speaking of children, the American Academy of Pediatrics reports that one in 10 covid cases among children in the entire pandemic has happened in the last week. According to the CDC, only 18.8 percent of children ages 5 through 11 are fully vaccinated; for children ages 12 through 17, only a bit over half are fully vaccinated. When vaccination for children ages five through 11 was originally authorized, there was a burst of vaccination action. After that, vaccinations fell way off. It seems that many vaccinated parents are waiting to see how things go before getting their younger children vaccinated. A pediatrician specializing in infectious diseases offers this for parents worried about sending kids to school now: "OK, then vaccinate them. We're talking about trying to keep them safe. Here's an idea: Vaccinate your children." Meanwhile, a vaccine for children under the age of five may be authorized within a month.

Some states are dealing with teacher shortages by activating National Guard members or calling in state workers. New  Mexico is relying on both groups as substitute teachers and child care workers. People serving as substitutes must become licensed as substitutes or child care workers and fulfill usual requirements such as background checks and a skills workshop. Oklahoma is letting state agencies allow workers to serve as substitute teachers without affecting regular job, pay, or benefits. According to Burbio, a company that tracks schools, in the past five says, an average of 3,621 of 98,000 public schools have been disrupted each day. 

Some European countries are shifting to treating covid as endemic and here to stay. They're going from crisis mode to control mode, something the WHO says it's too early to do. On the flip side--of both the world and the issue--New Zealand has again tightened border controls except for a small number of exempted visa holders and returning citizens. They are doing this by blocking registration at the official quarantine hotels for March and April. People already booked for January and February can still get into the country and into quarantine. 

Looking at cases per 100,000 people in the last two weeks, the big winner (or loser depending on how you define things) was Wisconsin where cases were up over 200 percent. New York, New Jersey, and the District of Columbia saw cases drop over 100 percent. Michigan, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Georgia, and Florida all saw cases go down between zero and 100 percent. 

Are we there yet? Not even close, says me the pessimistic realist. Maybe, says me the more optimistic. I've decided not to go to a quilt show next month. It would have required being in a hotel and crowds for five days. I'm not going to risk it. There's always next year. Or will there?

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 175 (675)

The government's free test website that went live yesterday, a day early, officially opened today. I imagine that tonight's news will have something about how many tests have been requested. In addition to the tests, the government will be giving away non-surgical N95 masks. There's no ordering masks online; distribution will be handled through community health centers and retail pharmacies. Mask distribution will start next week. 

The CDC put 22 more nations into its "highest-risk" travel category, Level 4. The criterion for inclusion is to have had over 500 cases per 100,000 residents in the past 28 days. The CDC also put 22 more nations into the "high" risk category, Level 3. As of now, there are 101 nations in Level 1, 57 in Level 3, 17 in Level 2 (moderate risk), and 19 in Level 1 (low risk). Forty-two nations fall into the "unknown" category that comes with advice to check into the countries as best one can before actually going there. Cruise ships are considered to be at Level 4.

Enrollments in nursing programs are rising. Enrollment in undergraduate programs was up 5.6 percent this year, while enrollment in master's programs rose 4.1 percent. At the same time, nurses and other health care workers are showing signs of stress similar to those shown by combat veterans. In a survey of over 500 doctors, nurses, and first responders, 15 percent said it was "not at all likely" they would still work in the field in five to 10 years. For nurses alone, the percentage was 20. Seventy-four percent of survey respondents reported suffering symptoms of depression, 37 percent reported symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder, and 15 percent admitted they'd had thoughts of suicide or self-harm. Since February 2020, 30 percent of US health care workers have lost their jobs or quit. The more common reason given was what else, covid. 

Over 1,200 students in Oakland, California signed a petition saying they would stay at home this week unless they get more covid protection including N95 masks, weekly testing, better social distancing, or a shift to virtual learning. Students also protested in New York City, New Jersey, Chicago, and Washington, DC. Virginia's new governor, who made an executive order ending school mask mandates, has said he "would use every resource within the governor's authority to explore what we can do and will do in order to make sure parents' rights are protected." Once again I thank the lucky stars that my kids have outgrown K12 education. 

A couple quotes with which to close: 

"This pandemic is nowhere near over." 

     WHO Director

"In winter it's not at all like in summer."

      French education minister, on Ibiza (see yesterday's post)

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 174 (674)

Do a good deed daily? I've done mine. It seems that the website through which free covid tests (four per household) can be ordered went live a day early. I've ordered ours and alerted The Sons who have now ordered theirs. I also alerted my Internet quilt guild, and at least two of them have ordered. Tests are not going to ship until around February 1, but I don't have to worry about forgetting to order tomorrow.

When is it all going to end? Possibly not for a long time. Dr. Fauci says that we're still in the first of the five stages of a pandemic. The first stage is when "the whole world is really very negatively impacted." The other stages are (in order) deceleration, control, elimination, and eradication. That last step is rarely met. Smallpox is pretty much the only disease that has been eradicated. In terms of people wanting to catch Omicron so they gain immunity, Dr. Fauci said whether Omicron is the equivalent of a live virus vaccination is an open question. We could get another variant that can evade a body's immune response in which case the immunity from Omicron might not be usable at all. 

The Edelman Trust Barometer is a survey of 35,000 respondents across 28 countries. The 2022 results were just released. One result is the percent of respondents who believe that an entity is "purposely trying to mislead people by saying things they know are false or gross exaggerations." Some 67 percent of respondents felt that journalists were misleading. Government leaders were viewed as misleading by 66 percent, and business executives were viewed as misleading by 63 percent. In general, respondents feared that the media were becoming more sensational for commercial gain, and that government leaders were exploiting divisions for, what else, political gain. 

Although some cities in the Northeast have started to see rapid declines in their numbers of covid cases, the surgeon general claims that Omicron has not yet peaked in the US and that the "next few weeks will be tough." Elaborating, "The challenge is that the entire country is not moving at the same pace. The Omicron wave started later in other parts of the country. We shouldn't expect a national peak in the coming days." Indeed, there are models that forecast 50,000 to 300,000 more Americans could die by the time the Omicron wave subsides in early March. 

I came across a report of an observational study that both intrigues and concerns me. Hospitalized patients with covid and no prior history of dementia had elevated levels of brain injury biomarkers. Levels of certain compounds were as high or higher in the short terms among hospitalized covid patients without a history of dementia than they were among Alzheimer's patients who had never had covid. Findings were said to indicate "a profound neurological insult in these patients." A big reason I find covid so frightening is that it seems able to attack just about any organ in the body--brain, kidney, heart, liver, blood, on and on. And don't get me started on long covid. 

Internationally, Canada has approved Pfizer's anti-viral Paxlovid. Tonga is worried that as much as they need relief workers, those workers could bring covid to the island nation. Finally, the French education minister is facing calls to resign after it came out that he had announced strict covid-testing and isolation rules for schools while he was on a long weekend New Year's holiday in Ibiza. It's justifiably called a public relations disaster. The minister broke no law; there were no travel restrictions in place. Ministers had been asked to remain in Europe, within two hours of Paris. A government spokesperson says that the minister was reachable the entire time. Parents of school children affected by the new policy did not appreciate hearing about a policy starting in just a day or two not to mention that the announcement came from someone on a beach.   

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 173 (673)

We dodged a bullet weather-wise last night. I shall say no more so as not to jinx things.

The Chinese government is reacting to the single covid case in Beijing by stopping the sale of Olympics tickets to the general public. The rationale is "to ensure the safety of all participants and spectators." Select, targeted groups will be allowed to attend; there will still be strict regulations such as no shouting. The government is also urging citizens not to order anything from abroad. The one patient in Beijing is said to have received a parcel from Canada four days before covid was detected. Science has shown that covid transmission is not about surfaces; it is an airborne virus. I expect that other covid cases will soon be found in Beijing; what effect they might have on the Olympics, I do not know.

CBS News and YouGov polled 2,094 people January 12 to 14, following up on a similar survey in July 2021. In the current survey, only 30 percent of respondents say that US efforts to deal with the pandemic are "going well." In July, 66 percent of respondents approved of POTUS's management of the pandemic, a percentage that dropped to 49 in January. Of those who approved of POTUS's handling of the virus, 78 percent self-identified as liberal. Of those who disapproved, 83 percent self-identified as conservative. Finally, 35 percent of respondents felt that administration policies were making things better, while 40 percent felt the policies were making things worse. 

The FDA commissioner recently said that "most people" will get covid, while Dr. Fauci said "just about everybody" will. Others say that those take it a bit far, that if you are vaccinated, boosted, wear good-quality masks, avoid indoor crowds, and do things outdoors whenever possible, you can greatly lower your chance of getting it. As for trying to get infected as with the old chicken-pox parties, don't. Getting infected is nothing to play around with. As for Omicron being "milder" for people who have been vaccinated and boosted, some experts say that a better term is "less severe."

I read an interesting take on the hospitalization "for covid" versus "with covid" distinction. The writer held that cases in which routine pre-op checkups or treatment for an accident reveals covid are actually not very common. More likely, covid exacerbates another condition or causes a different illness to emerge. Think diabetes, renal failure, asthma or other respiratory ailments. A doc at an infectious diseases hospital notes, "This virus does things no other respiratory virus does. You can have strokes, heart attack, kidney disease, liver disease, and then whatever long covid is."

On the day on which we honor the legacy of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., I cannot help but wonder what he would say seeing our nation today or whether we would have gotten to this point had he been alive in these troubled times. I am pessimistic that we will ever heal some of the divisions that have arisen. At the same time, I wonder if the disturbances of the last few years could have been addressed through some nonviolent action such as a sit-in. A month before the infamous conflict that took away my need to add "Virginia" to "Charlottesville," there was a smaller demonstration centered on one of the two since-removed statues. I thought that a better response than gathering to confront those protesting any removal of the statues would have been for people to walk up to the fence then turn their backs to the protesters, effectively telling them their actions were not worthy of a response. I know, too simplistic and open to misinterpretation. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 172 (672)

I haven't taken too many notes yet today, but the power is still on as the snow continues to hurtle downward. How fast is it hurtling? Son #1 and I walked The Family Dog half a mile to the main road and then back home. By the time we were on the home stretch--last tenth or two of a mile--the tracks we'd made in the snow on our way out were totally filled in. There was no sign we'd been walking there not long before. 

Novak Djokovic's appeal was denied, and he is no longer in Australia. An Aussie friend said that when he first arrived in early January and was detained, public opinion was about 50 - 50 as to whether he should be allowed to stay and play or sent packing. By the time of the appeal yesterday, public opinion had shifted to the deport-him side. Another Aussie friend noted that she has not seen one of her sons or her mother-in-law in two years because of covid restrictions, and why should a foreign tennis player get special treatment.

Omicron appears to be peaking or at least plateauing in the Northeast, but people still need to take precautions such as wearing high-quality masks and doing things outdoors if possible. Typing that as the snow falls furiously outside the window behind me makes me envision some sort of meeting in an outdoor conference room with everyone clad in puffy down coats. Omicron is still on the upswing in other places, though. Three hospital systems in Oklahoma have no ICU beds available. The large number of Omicron cases also ups the possibility of more variants arising, with no guarantee they'll be as mild as Omicron seems to be. 

Our new Republican governor issued executive orders in his first hours as governor that scrap mask mandates in schools (at least one district has already said they will not get rid of their requirement that teachers and students wear masks) and vaccine requirements for state employees. I certainly would not want to occupy a desk in a room with people who had not been vaccinated. It's probably a good thing that I retired when I did. 

If we have power tomorrow, I'll put up a post. If we don't, I'll be sitting in front of the fireplace knitting or weaving. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 171 (671)

I've started a new volume of daily notes. This one is pretty thick and has larger pages than many of the other 12 I've used. The first of those started on December 1, 2020. I don't recall what I did for notes before that. I may have used random pieces of paper that went into the recycling bin once I'd finished writing the day's post. 

We're once again awaiting weather here. If there's no post tomorrow, it will be because we again lost power. We sit about 30 miles away from the east side of the Blue Ridge Mountains with the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean a couple of hours to the east. That puts us at the mercy of Mother Nature. She may keep the soft, powdery snow west of the Blue Ridge and send us the ice, sleet, and freezing rain. Or we'll get snow, and the line between snow and the slick stuff will be to our east. We won't really know what sort of weather we're going to get until it starts. 

The CDC has acknowledged that cloth masks offer less protection than surgical masks or respirators. The old language in the CDC's mask guidance: People may choose to use disposable N95 respirators instead of masks "when supplies are available." The new language: "A respirator may be considered in certain situations and by certain people when greater protection is needed or desired." Basically, a well-fitting respirator such as an N95 is better than a well-fitting disposable surgical mask or a KN95, and all of those are better than a cloth mask. The bottom line is that you should "wear the most protective mask you can that fits well and that you will wear consistently." 

We can request free rapid test kits starting on Wednesday. The website, covidtests.gov, is active now and notes that ordering will start of January 19. It will likely take until the end of January for tests to be delivered; delivery will be by the US Postal Service. Each household is limited to four tests. There will be some tests available at some community health centers, rural clinics, and federal testing sites. There are three times an at-home tests should be used: if you start to have symptoms; if you were exposed to a positive person five or more days earlier; and if you are planning to gather indoors with someone at risk, and you want to know that you're negative. 

A not-yet-peer-reviewed study of National Basketball Association players and staff reports that a large percentage still had viral loads over a certain threshold five days after the first positive test. This suggests that people with Omicron may stay infectious for longer than five days, giving credence to the suggestion that a negative test be required in order to leave isolation or quarantine. 

Texas scientists are developing a vaccine called Corbevax that they won't patent, meaning that anyone able to manufacture it will be able to. They say, "Pretty much anybody that can make hepatitis B vaccines or has the capacity to produce microbial-based protein like bacteria or yeast can replicate what we do." They have not yet released clinical data, but reports are that Corbevax is 90 percent effective against the original coronavirus strain and 80 percent effective against the Delta variant. Tests on Omicron are ongoing. The vaccine has been developed on a platform called recombinant protein sub-unit technology. Do not ask me to explain that; I included it only because it sounds so neat. 

It had to happen, that is, the first case of Omicron in Beijing just three weeks before the Olympics open. The infected person's residential complex and workplace have been locked down, and several thousand people have been tested. There will be positive results in those several thousand tests. Meanwhile, the Olympic rules in Beijing are tighter than the rules in Tokyo. Personnel will undergo daily throat swabs. N95 masks are required. Where distancing is not possible, such as in an elevator, talking is prohibited. Spectators are asked to clap instead of shouting or singing.

If someone is asymptomatic and tests positive, they will be sent to isolation in a dedicated hotel. They will be given meals and may open windows, but they won't be allowed to leave their 270 square foot room.  Athletes can request fitness equipment. Asymptomatic people can leave isolation after testing negative on two days. Symptomatic people will go into hospital isolation. To leave, they must have two days of negative tests and three days with no fever. Their symptoms must also be lessening.  

And now we wait, for whatever weather might develop, for Omicron or another variant of concern likely to arise, for whatever Mother Nature throws at us next. As a psychologist, I know that if you can't change the stimulus, you can try to control your reaction to it. How about we say that we live in truly interesting times, which was a curse not a blessing.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 170 (670)

"The game has changed since the Delta wave. The challenges we are facing are really around staffing. Compounding that is that this is a much more infectious variant, taking more staff out that we have in the workforce."      ~Chancellor of Clinical Affairs at Mississippi's largest hospital 

"One of our biggest problems is just finding employees to take care of patients because we have so many employees that are out sick."     ~Doctor at Vanderbilt University Medical Center

Staffing is the new crisis in American hospitals. Oregon and Maine are the latest states to request National Guard help for overwhelmed hospitals. At least 80 percent of staffed hospital beds are occupied in 24 states. At least 85 percent of ICU beds are occupied in 18 states. The states in the  worst trouble in this regard are Alabama, Missouri New Mexico, Rhode Island, Texas, and Wisconsin. At least 60 children are hospitalized in Alabama, 13 in ICUs. One third of Mississippi's nurses have left for other jobs or to better paying jobs in other states. There are currently about 3,000 vacant positions. 

Omicron may be starting to plateau in New York and along the east coast, where it first started. Elsewhere, though, it's still spreading, working its way across the country. The Texas department of state and health services notes, "Covid has never spread this fast." It may take a while for Omicron to traverse the country, but it surely will. 

Around the world, China has shut down Anyang, a city of 5.5 million people after finding two covid cases there. That was not a typo. Two (2) cases have led China to lock down 5.5 million people. Sweden's prime minister has tested positive and is working from home. Italy has reintroduced an outdoor mask mandate. It never got rid of an indoor mask mandate even when cases dropped during the summer.The police enforcing those mandates are protesting that the office of national covid-19 emergency commission sent them pink masks. They claim the color is "eccentric" and ill-matched to their uniforms. The color risks jeopardizing the image of the institution. Finally, the British Prime Minister's office is apologizing for two separate parties held the night before Prince Philip's funeral. The parties were for people leaving positions. Number 10 Downing Street is having lots of problems with parties during the pandemic.

The Marine Corps has given its first religious exemption from a vaccine mandate in at least 10 years; in fact, it granted two, both for the covid-19 vaccine. The fact that there were 3,350 requests (3,212 have been processed) makes those two exemptions pretty special. Details of the basis for the exemptions was not given for privacy reasons. 

The Professor's covid test came back negative. I can't help but wonder, though, just how many times he will need to get tested as the semester proceeds. As the supervisor (in name only) of all the department's teaching assistants, he gets notified if one of them tests positive. He got another one of those emails this morning. Fortunately, he'd had no personal contact with that student. It could be an interesting semester.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 169 (669)

The New York Times is offering more explanation now about the numbers it's providing. They published that the over 140,000 people hospitalized with covid last week included people whose cases were discovered incidentally after they had been admitted for another reason. To get a bit more specific, four states have less than 10 percent remaining capacity in ICUs, and five other states are approaching 10 percent. Military medical teams are being dispatched to provide support to hospitals in Michigan, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, and Rhode Island. 

Wonderful. (NOT) I just saw a headline that the Supreme Court has ruled against letting the government require that employees at large companies be vaccinated or undergo weekly testing. I can't say that this surprises me; it definitely disappoints me. As might be expected the three most liberal justices dissented. I was pleased, though, that the Court is allowing a vaccine mandate for health care workers to remain in effect. I cannot see how they could have killed that mandate. If there is any single group of people who should be vaccinated, it is health care workers. Beyond getting covid themselves, they could spread it to family, friends, neighbors, and so on. What is that part of the oath doctors take? First, do no harm?

In terms of employee vaccine mandates, United Airlines reports that some 3,000 employees recently tested positive, but no vaccinated employees have been hospitalized. Before the company required employees be vaccinated, more than one employee per week was dying of covid. That sounds to me like pretty good evidence in favor of company mandates, at least for companies that want to keep an intact work force.

Knock me over with a feather, but our former president has endorsed booster shots and said that politicians who refuse to say if they have gotten one are "gutless." Before we read too much into that, it is likely that the comment was directed at Florida's governor who has refused to disclose his booster status and who is looking like a possible contender against the former president to run in 2024.

The pandemic has wreaked havoc on education at all levels. At the higher education level, total undergraduate enrollment dropped 3.1 percent from fall 2020 to fall 2021. Going back a year, the total decline since fall 2019 is 6.6 percent, or 1,205,600 students. Public two-year colleges often known as community colleges have been hit the hardest. Enrollment there is down 13.2 percent or about 706,000 students since fall 2019. The number of students seeking associate degrees at four-year schools also fell as did the number of students aged 24 and older. One bright spot is that while enrollment of first-year students is 9.2 percent lower in fall 2021 than fall 2019, the difference between fall 2020 and fall 2021 was actually in the positive direction, up about 0.4 percent or about 8,000 students. 

The Australian Open tennis tournament is responding to Omicron by capping spectators at 50 percent capacity for any match that has yet to sell 50 percent of the seats. Novak Djokovic, the top seed, was included in the draw of matches but could still be deported. It's going to be an interesting weekend leading up to the tournament's start on Monday.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 168 (668)

Researchers have, not surprisingly, considered the changes the pandemic may have brought to our lifestyles. To get a handle on this, they're looking at Google searches. Since the pandemic started, there have been more searches for hair, nail, and skin care products; lounge wear; massages; office products; toys and games; and (you knew it was coming, right?) alcohol. Some items had search histories that peaked then fell back to normal; two examples are bleach and paper towels. Finally, searches for daily items such as eggs or pet food have remained at pre-pandemic levels. 

Remember the WHO official who said that half of Europeans would get covid in the next month or two? Dr. Fauci said that Omicron is likely to "find just about everybody," but people who have been vaccinated and boosted with do "reasonably well." As for the unvaccinated, the current CDC estimate is that one in five Americans has not been vaccinated. That's about 65 million people.

Our new order of N95 masks arrived today. My supply of KN95 masks was dwindling. I'd agree with what one writer noted which is that any mask is better than no mask, but you should wear the best mask available that you can afford. The cloth masks I got or made early on are certainly cute, but I haven't worn one of them probably in about a year. The other mask advice I happened on is that if your glasses fog, your mask is not tight enough. That's the first thing I check any time I put a mask on. 

Various sectors of our daily lives are reflecting the people-drain that is Omicron. Schools or classes going virtual due to too many teachers being out side. Flights being cancelled because too many crew members are out sick. Hours are cut at retail establishments including even pharmacies because of staff shortages. The Red Cross has declared a national blood crisis for the first time ever. It's not that health care is using up more blood but that people just aren't donating now. POTUS says he wants to keep schools and businesses open, but it's not clear how easy that will be.

North of the border, Quebec is imposing a "health contribution" tax on unvaccinated residents, about 10 percent of the provincial population. Quebec did see a surge in vaccination bookings when the announcement was made that customers in cannabis shops and liquor stores would need to show proof of vaccination. Says an infectious disease specialist at McGill University, "I'm not going to mince words: things are bad right now when it comes to hospitalizations. Every time there's a ceiling, in terms of hospital capacity, the hospitalization rate breaks through that ceiling."

Influenza, coronavirus, common cold, allergies. (There's a certain rhythm there.) Telling one from another may be difficult, particularly influenza versus coronavirus. The symptoms are so similar and spread in similar fashion. Both can spread before symptoms develop. Flu symptoms usually arise one to four days after being infected. Covid symptoms usually arise after about five days but could start from two to 14 days. Loss of smell or taste means covid, not flu. Common cold symptoms tend to be mild; in particular, there usually won't be aches or fever. If one's eyes, nose, or ears itch, the cause could be allergies. Usually, the flu starts to increase in October and peaks between December and February. It is possible to have two viruses at the same time. One article referred to "flurona," and now I can't get "My Sharona" out of my head. 

Following up on my broken nose and septum, it's all good. That means I try not to hit it again before things finish doing whatever healing they need to do. I got the stitches out, but it will still be a while before I can wear my glasses as high on my nose as I did before the fall.

And did you miss the case, hospitalization, and death counts? The numbers surrounding the coronavirus were recently called a "data disaster." I've mentioned some of that here in recent posts. I'm going to try to not use numbers in any specific way as we move forward. We'll never know the true extent of the novel coronavirus, so we might as well just concentrate on coping the best we can.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 167 (667)

In a survey of 1,759 vaccinated adults who said they'd had covid, 55 percent said they'd had it before they got any vaccination. Four percent said they'd been partially vaccinated when they got it, and 36 percent said they'd been fully vaccinated at the time they were infected. As to the end of the pandemic, 53 percent of respondents said that they believed it would be more than a year, or never, before we can return to normal, pre-covid lives. Will we ever return to pre-covid behavior? Some people might, at least within some group of people with similar belief structures. I'm not sure I will. I have the feeling I'll always be looking at strangers or people I know only slightly and wondering what they might have that I don't want to have. The number of people I'm willing to hug will certainly be smaller. I avoid large crowds already at least as much as I can given the panic attacks I tend to have, so that's not an issue. 

The daily case rate in the US hit 1,350,000; the seven-day average has tripled in two weeks and is now over 700,000 per day. Only seven states have not yet set case records in 2022: Arizona, Idaho, Maine, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, and Wyoming. There are 145,982 covid patients in hospital, more than last winter's peak. A New York Times comparison of New York City and Seattle showed cases rising for both vaccinated and unvaccinated people with a relatively low death rate for vaccinated people in both cities. The bottom line? Vaccination is highly effective at preventing severe covid, but the risk of getting covid is not zero even for generally healthy people. Dr. Fauci quantified it for a Senate committee. Being unvaccinated means a person is 10 times more likely to test positive, 17 times more likely to be hospitalized, and 20 times more likely to die. I can't help but think of that last bit--"more likely to die" or "20 times more likely to die"--as the title of a James Bond movie. 

Beginning Saturday, private health insurers in the US will cover the cost of up to eight at-home covid tests per month for each person covered by a policy. At the same time, misinformation about what those tests might show is growing on social media. Some videos demonstrate tests yielding positive results after exposure to tap water or juice to suggest that at-home tests don't work. Other tidbits of misinformation include that PCR tests are vaccines in disguise or don't work at all, covid counts publicized include cases of influenza, and that at-home tests are pre-treated to give a certain result. I guess it had to come to this with earlier misinformation campaigns concerning masks, vaccines, and the severity of covid; tests had to be next.  

WHO suggests that half of Europe's residents could get Omicron in the next six to eight weeks. While WHO previously complained that boosters would increase vaccine inequity, they now say that boosters could be essential in protecting the most vulnerable as well as protecting essential personnel such as health care workers and teachers. WHO also says that it's too early to think of the coronavirus as endemic. A key factor in its becoming endemic would be a sense of predictability, something Omicron showed us we do not yet have. 

A not-yet-peer-reviewed study shows that coronavirus loses 90 percent of its ability to infect within five minutes of becoming airborne. If true, this would suggest that improved ventilation is less of a preventive factor than masks or distancing. Research has shown that Omicron is milder than Delta. Will the next variant be even milder? Unfortunately, not necessarily. Some viruses, such as Ebola, have become more dangerous over time. One variant does not evolve from another; each variant has evolved independently.

A couple more US and global notes. Data in some of the first cities hit by Omicron show deaths spiking sharply. While they are not rising as quickly as cases are, they are rising fast enough to worry about. There is speculation that the CDC may recommend N95 or KN95 masks for the general public. China has now locked down three cities. About 20 million Chinese are now confined to their homes. House arrest? Japan will continue its ban on nonresident foreigners until the end of February. And while not totally related to the pandemic, both Rolls-Royce and Bentley posted record sales in 2021.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 166 (666)

I have arrived at Day 666 of my pandemic blog started on March 16, 2020. I was but a pandemic babe in the woods then, bright-eyed and thinking positively.

Who would ever have thought that we would come this far, through the fog of covid orientation, into the forest of mitigation measures, across the lake of vaccinations, and down the river of boosters, only to arrive at the desert of Omicron? It's been a journey for the ages, and we're not home yet.

The blog will be back tomorrow, on Day 667. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 165 (665)

The governor of New York has asked hospitals in the state to report two covid counts--the number of patients being treated for symptoms of covid and the number of patients admitted for something else but who tested positive for covid when checked. Forty hospitals in the state have postponed elective surgeries due to the number of patients they have. The state recorded 130 deaths Thursday, the highest since vaccinations became available. New York City suspended service on three out of 22 subway kines and reduced service on others; 21 percent of operators and conductors are out sick. So are 21 percent of police personnel, 30 percent of emergency medical personnel, and 17 percent of fire officials.

Some people have said that they stopped taking government directives so seriously after the CDC cut their quarantine requirement in half. A tourist in New York City elaborates, "The reality is that everyone is fatigued by the pandemic, and at this point everyone knows they should be doing what they can to stay safe. But at this point we're in a 'fuck it' phase." I don't know that there is a cure, but is there even a treatment for pandemic fatigue? Getting those who aren't yet vaccinated, vaccinated? They seem impervious to scientific information about what it will take to move "pandemic" to "endemic." What else might work? I don't expect that I will, but if I think of anything, I'll let you know.

Schools here were supposed to re-open from winter holidays on Tuesday. Due to winter weather, they didn't open at all. Weather aside, many US schools are having a problem re-opening due to resistance from teachers with concerns over staffing shortages, lack of personal protective equipment, difficulties with covid testing, and just plain overall working conditions. Class sizes are growing as more teachers leave, and planning time is often taken away to allow one teacher to substitute for a colleague who is out sick. As I've said before, I am so very glad that we no longer have kids in school.

It seems that one in three US states have banned vaccine mandates for schools. Only four states--well, three states and the District of Columbia--expressly have school vaccine mandates: California, Louisiana, and Illinois. The states that have banned such mandates are New Hampshire, Idaho, Montana, Vermont, South Dakota, Ohio, Indiana, Arizona, Kansas, Tennessee, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, Texas, and Florida. I refuse to look up how many of those, and it might be all of those, have Republican governors and/or state legislatures. I don't need to raise my blood pressure higher than it already might be.

As for the face, it seems to be healing. It at least feels no worse. I can't say that it looks no worse because it does seem to look worse each day. I have a follow-up appointment on Wednesday. Who knows what it might look like then?

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 164 (664)

In the event there is no post tomorrow, blame my left eye. While I don't think it will be swollen shut in response to Thursday's face plant, I'm not sure how open it will be based on what it looks like today versus yesterday. 

A leading immunologist in Italy is under police protection after receiving a bullet and death threats toward her family. Why? She went on national television and press advocating vaccinating children against covid. Why get children vaccinated? Well, the CDC reports a spike in covid hospitalizations in children. For example, pediatric hospitals in New York State saw an average of 71 children per week hospitalized at the beginning of December; by the end, that was an average of 571 per week. New York City went from 22 per week to 385 per week. Investigation is ongoing into the possibility that Omicron may not be as mild for children too young to be vaccinated as it is for older children. The best way to protect children too young to be vaccinated is to make sure that all the people around them are vaccinated. And perhaps an even better reason not to let children catch covid: Children who recover from covid appear to be at significantly increased risk of developing Type 1 or Type 2 diabetes. There is some evidence it may also happen in adults, but not to the extent it might in children. 

The Supreme Court is holding hearings on POTUS's order to OSHA that companies with more than 100 employees institute vaccine mandates. The Court does not seem to think this is appropriate. Whatever the Court rules, Citigroup has given staff based in the US a deadline of January 14 to show proof of vaccination (principal vaccination, not booster) or apply for an exemption. People who do not comply will be placed on unpaid leave January 15 and fired on January 31 if they still have not complied. 

I know a couple of people who are fanatical about cruising, especially cruising that involves sun, surf, and alcohol. They perhaps should not get too rushed about returning to cruising, Royal Caribbean has canceled more cruises. They've delayed sailings of three ships and delayed the return of another until March. Norwegian Cruise Lines has also suspended voyages. 

Yesterday, I asked The Professor to consider working from home whenever he can after learning that the day before 95 faculty and staff members at the local university had tested positive. The daily average for this week was over 40, and the percent positivity approached 30. The 95 is most likely an under-count since it reflects only people who tested through the local university and does not include any who tested through the local health district or at home. After I made my request, The Professor let me know that he'd been in a meeting in his office with several graduate students, one of whom turned out to be positive. They were as separated as people can be in a faculty office, masked, vaccinated and boosted, but one was still positive.  CDC recommends being tested five days after possible exposure or when symptoms appear. 

So 2022 has started with a multi-day power outage, a face plant on the steps, and possible covid exposures. I would ask if it could get any worse, but that would likely amount to jinxing myself. January had better not be the high point of the year.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 163 (663)

We knew this already, but it's now being hyped a bit since some studies have been published. The covid death toll in the US may well be more under-counted than we thought. Deaths among people ages 18 to 64 are up 40 percent over the same time period pre-pandemic. Looking at excess deaths as an estimate of covid-related deaths show an excess of 942,431 deaths since February 2020. A representative of the insurance field notes that a 10 percent increase over the pre-pandemic period would be a one-in-200 catastrophe while a 40 percent increase is unheard of. 

Long covid is a complicating factor in the assessment of a death toll. Many deaths happen months after infection, because covid may have weakened organs or created fatal new ailments. A study from the UK suggests that covid may amplify pre-existing risks leading to the most vulnerable people to having the highest death risk. After reading about these studies, I had to stop and wonder whether it might be possible (I don't think it would) to count the deaths that occurred because people had surgery or other treatment postponed or canceled because of the number of covid patients in a facility. While they did not die of covid, they died because of covid.

A separate study coming out of the UK found that countries with high levels of trust generally did a better job of bringing covid cases and deaths down from peak levels. One of the authors, the director of the global systems institute at the University of Exeter notes, "Success with this awful pandemic appears to be more hinging on trust in each other than trust in government, which is probably a damn good thing given where we're at with trust in government." That may explain a lot about how the coronavirus has gone to town here in the US. A good many (half?) of the people don't trust the government nor do they trust people who do. A sense of community identity is a key determinant of adherence to social mitigation measures such as mask wearing, testing, and social distancing. Do we even have a sense of community identity any longer?

The US saw 662,000 new cases Thursday, the fourth highest daily total ever. The seven-day average of 597,000 set a record for the tenth day in a row. Hospitalizations are approaching 123,000, getting close to the record of 132,000 set last year. Deaths are holding steady at about 1,400 daily. That said, the CDC has predicted that over 84,000 people in the US could die of covid over the next month. 

Other items of interest: Norwegian military conscripts can no longer keep their military underwear; they must leave it for new recruits. Supply chain problems with materials mean not enough new underwear is being made. Recruits leaving the service must now return underwear including socks and bras. Says a military spokesperson, "The textiles are washed, cleaned and checked. What we distribute is in good condition."  Thinking about this, various second-hand stores do sell bras, but I'm not sure I've seen one selling underpants. North Korea has announced that it will skip the upcoming Winter Olympics because of covid. Japan has asked the US to impose lockdowns on military bases there as covid spreads to areas around the bases. Finally, French President Macron said he stood by his earlier comments about wanting to "piss off" the unvaccinated. A man of his word. Bravo!

I am starting my own informal quarantine or isolation having spent several hours last evening in the emergency room of our local non-university hospital. Without all the details, I managed to face and body plant on the wooden stairs up to our front porch. Trust me. You do not want to do this. I do not know how busy the ER usually is on a Thursday evening, but I spent a good bit of my waiting time in a hallway across from the men's room. There were multiple homeless people there, possibly getting warm before the snow forecast for overnight. When I finally spent some time in one of the waiting rooms, I sat directly across (maybe 10 to 12 feet) from a woman who insisted on relating stories about her three dogs, removing her mask each time to make sure I could hear her. I had a KN-95 mask over my mouth and was keeping a towel over my nose that would not stop bleeding, thanks to cuts at the top of my nose beside each eye. While I hope towel and mask offered enough protection from aerosol particles, I'm not going to take any chances about exposing my 89-year-old mother or any of her fellow residents in assisted living. The number of people in the ER was the highest I've been with since mid-March 2020, and I could go another two years before I'm with that many people again.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 162 (662)

Living in the country means water from a well which means there is a pump dependent upon electricity to remain functional. Once the power goes out, the number of toilet flushes possible plummets as does the supply of drinking water not to mention water that can be heated to make coffee. We were lucky this time around. Son #1 never lost power in town and was able to bring hot coffee in the morning and large containers of water for flushing toilets beginning to smell like porta-a-potties. Power went out about 10:00 Monday morning and returned Wednesday afternoon about 3:00. How the power grids are laid out here is not at all predictable. We have friends living just a bit more than a mile away who have been told they will not have power until Monday. We've also been told there will be more snow falling tonight. Fingers crossed that it is not the wet heavy kind of snow that on Monday took down all the trees that took down all the power cables. 

I followed a bit of pandemic news on my phone, but did not want to run the phone's battery too far down since that was my line to the world outside not to mention the assisted living facility in which my mom lives. I also did not want to type anything lengthy using the phone's keyboard. The more things changed in three days, the more they stayed the same. 

Particularly noticeable this morning was an article about the growing numbers of pediatric covid cases. In the week ending December 23, there were over 325,000 new pediatric cases, a 64 percent increase over the previous week and double the week before that. With the increase in cases, more children are being admitted to hospitals. As of January 2, an average of 672 children were being hospitalized every day, double the average of a week earlier. Keep in mind that children under the age of five are unvaccinated and not by choice. 

A doctor at a children's medical center in Indiana reported that over half the children they have hospitalized have had to spend time in intensive care with at least 40 percent of those needing to have been put on ventilators. Comments, descriptions, and quotes from doctors or officials in other states include New York, kid rates have quadrupled; Washington, DC, kid rates have doubled; Texas, "staggering;" Alabama, "like a rocket ship;" Louisiana, "we've never seen anything like it;" and Ohio, "we're on fire." There was a similar surge in pediatric cases in South Africa, far surpassing those in earlier waves. 

On January 5, there were 716,824 new cases, a 94.8 percent increase over seven days. There were 119,548 people in hospitals and 21,210 people in ICUs. The hospitalization figure is on its way to surpass the figure from early January 2021 when there were no readily available vaccines. The numbers from cases per 100,000 people don't look very good either. Only Maine was showing a decline; cases there were down 16 percent from the previous week. New Jersey showed an increase of 239 percent. Other states with per capita cases increasing over 150 percent were New York, Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware, Florida, and Louisiana. 

Nothing but numbers! In other coronavirus news, the CDC has approved booster vaccinations for chilren between the ages of 12 and 17 at least five months after their second dose of Pfizer or Moderna or two months after their dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Vaccination rates among children continue to lag, though. Only nine percent of children ages five to 11 have been vaccinated, along with 51 percent of those ages 12 to 15. Tennis player Novak Djokovic thought he had a medical exemption from tennis officials and the state of Victoria to compete in the Australian Open starting in a bit more than a week. The federal government canceled his visa when he arrived, saying that the medical exemption he had been granted was not official. He is currently spending time in a quarantine hotel room while his representatives contest his possible deportation. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 161 (661)

Wednesday, January 5, 2022

Late afternoon saw the return of power and much dancing happily. Laundry and other mundanities were left for the next day.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 160 (660)

 Tuesday, January 4, 2022

The power remained out. The Professor went to his office while I stayed in front of the fireplace with the animals.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 159 (659)

Monday, January 3, 2022

The snow was deep and wet enough to take down multiple trees and branches. We lost power mid-morning, and I was not going to do a full post from my phone. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 158 (658)

While case numbers are still being reported, and recognizing that any case numbers out there are under-counted, can 600,000 be far behind? On Thursday, there were some 585,013 new cases in the US. The usefulness of case numbers continues to be debated. Says one expert, "Once you have accepted the virus is endemic, just like influenza, then you never track cases because we never screen like this for any other viruses, we track what is causing disease and getting people hospitalized." On the other hand, there are experts saying that case counts remain important because they prevent the public from over- or under-reacting. In Nova Scotia, a senior medical officer says the government would no longer focus on daily case counts. Both the Philippines and Singapore will stop posting case updates on social media. I'll keep reporting them as long as I can find them in a reputable source. 

The US seven-day average for pediatric hospitalizations went up 58 percent to 334 between December 21 and December 27. Contributing to this is that less than 25 percent of US children are vaccinated. The infection rates in people between the ages of 18 and 29 is over eight times higher than one month ago. For people in their 30s and 40s, there are six times as many cases than there were one month ago. Some scientists are saying that Omicron may peak in the US in mid-January at 2.5 million new cases per week, a number that could go up to 5.4 million. Either number would greatly strain hospitals. The current average number of daily cases is 386,000, though we know that's under-counted. The average ICU occupancy rate nationwide is currently 79 percent. We'll be in real trouble if the expected post-holiday peak takes place.

I read some comments on the book The Year the World Went Mad: A Scientific Memoir by Mark Woolhouse. He argues that looking at the coronavirus for the world or people as a whole was the wrong approach. The coronavirus has always been worse for certain groups of people making the general lockdown morally wrong and highly damaging. He claims it was done "to protect the NHS from a disease that is a far, far greater threat to the elderly, frail and infirm than to the young and healthy." I wonder, though, if we went back to those early days, would we find that we knew at the time just how differently the virus would affect different groups? The general lockdowns put in place were designed to protect as many people as possible based on the knowledge on hand at the time. 

And there soon were different responses for different sub-populations. I'm not the only person I know with a parent in a long-term care situation who could not visit that parent for over a year given the extra restrictions put in place by the facility. To say we made things up as we went along may well be an accurate description, but hindsight is always 20-20. We'll probably respond better to the next pandemic, which I daresay will come sooner than the 100 years between "our" pandemic and the previous one. I just hope today's kids have learned from what today's adults have done this go-round.

Be It Hereby Resolved ...

Resolutions were hard to come by this year. Maybe it was the "do one of these every month" checklist attitude of last year's. The ones I came up with for 2022 are real in that they really are things I have consciously told myself I should or would like to do. So here goes ...

Finish the 50

On my 49th birthday, the advent of my 50th year, I made a list of 50 things to see, do, and so on. I did not make all 50 in that year nor did I finish the 50 in the next couple of years. I recently found my original list showing items checked off as completed. There are six items left, though a couple involve doing more than one thing. Here goes:

Visit Monticello. (I haven't been there since one of The Sons went with his third grade class.)

Visit Montpelier. (I haven't been there since they removed the DuPont renovations.)

Do the "guilt trip" book. (This is an art project I thought of years ago but have never done--an atlas to some things that can make all of us feel guilty.)

Write seven poems.

Do nine sketches.

Read a book in Spanish. (This one originally had a specific book listed, one that I have since given away. I'll find something, though.)

Quilt Binding

As I struggled to sew the binding on my latest quilt yesterday, I kept repeating that I need to get comfortable with machine-sewing a binding. A secondary resolution would be to learn how to blind-stitch a binding by hand. I cannot seem to hide my stitches. A couple of times I have asked someone in the quilt guild how to do a binding, and no one has offered more than "you blind stitch it." That isn't enough for this binding-challenged quilter; hard as I try, I have never been able to hide my stitches.

Workouts

Around Thanksgiving 2020, The Washington Post Local Living section had a review of more than a few workout programs do-able on your own from online sites. The person who did the reviews, a former bouncer and security guard, closed with the program he said he purchased and continues to use. I figured that was a pretty good review, so I bought a year's subscription, a subscription I just renewed. I started at the bottom of the bottoms since I then had a lower back problem. It's body weight training and gets more challenging as you work your way up the list of classes. My resolution is to stick with this for at least another year. I know it's working because there are things I could not do a few months ago that I now can do.

Weight

Don't gain any.

Domesticity

Since I'm now friends with the Instant Pot, it's time to get to know our new convection oven.

The hard one will, I think, be the quilt binding one. More profanity accompanies a binding than accompanies a new, level-up workout class, and believe me, I sometimes compare workouts by how many times in each I swear at the screen.

Happy New Year! Tomorrow, it's back to the pandemic and Omicron.

 

 

  

 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 157 (657)

Happy New Year!!!

Resolutions for 2022 will come in a separate post.

And here's a Happy New Year from the not-so-novel coronavirus delivered by a professor of emergency medicine at the Brown University School of Public Health:

Omicron is truly everywhere. What I am so worried about over the next month or so is that our economy is going to shut down, not because of politics from the federal government or from the state governments, but rather because so many of us are ill.