We knew this already, but it's now being hyped a bit since some studies have been published. The covid death toll in the US may well be more under-counted than we thought. Deaths among people ages 18 to 64 are up 40 percent over the same time period pre-pandemic. Looking at excess deaths as an estimate of covid-related deaths show an excess of 942,431 deaths since February 2020. A representative of the insurance field notes that a 10 percent increase over the pre-pandemic period would be a one-in-200 catastrophe while a 40 percent increase is unheard of.
Long covid is a complicating factor in the assessment of a death toll. Many deaths happen months after infection, because covid may have weakened organs or created fatal new ailments. A study from the UK suggests that covid may amplify pre-existing risks leading to the most vulnerable people to having the highest death risk. After reading about these studies, I had to stop and wonder whether it might be possible (I don't think it would) to count the deaths that occurred because people had surgery or other treatment postponed or canceled because of the number of covid patients in a facility. While they did not die of covid, they died because of covid.
A separate study coming out of the UK found that countries with high levels of trust generally did a better job of bringing covid cases and deaths down from peak levels. One of the authors, the director of the global systems institute at the University of Exeter notes, "Success with this awful pandemic appears to be more hinging on trust in each other than trust in government, which is probably a damn good thing given where we're at with trust in government." That may explain a lot about how the coronavirus has gone to town here in the US. A good many (half?) of the people don't trust the government nor do they trust people who do. A sense of community identity is a key determinant of adherence to social mitigation measures such as mask wearing, testing, and social distancing. Do we even have a sense of community identity any longer?
The US saw 662,000 new cases Thursday, the fourth highest daily total ever. The seven-day average of 597,000 set a record for the tenth day in a row. Hospitalizations are approaching 123,000, getting close to the record of 132,000 set last year. Deaths are holding steady at about 1,400 daily. That said, the CDC has predicted that over 84,000 people in the US could die of covid over the next month.
Other items of interest: Norwegian military conscripts can no longer keep their military underwear; they must leave it for new recruits. Supply chain problems with materials mean not enough new underwear is being made. Recruits leaving the service must now return underwear including socks and bras. Says a military spokesperson, "The textiles are washed, cleaned and checked. What we distribute is in good condition." Thinking about this, various second-hand stores do sell bras, but I'm not sure I've seen one selling underpants. North Korea has announced that it will skip the upcoming Winter Olympics because of covid. Japan has asked the US to impose lockdowns on military bases there as covid spreads to areas around the bases. Finally, French President Macron said he stood by his earlier comments about wanting to "piss off" the unvaccinated. A man of his word. Bravo!
I am starting my own informal quarantine or isolation having spent several hours last evening in the emergency room of our local non-university hospital. Without all the details, I managed to face and body plant on the wooden stairs up to our front porch. Trust me. You do not want to do this. I do not know how busy the ER usually is on a Thursday evening, but I spent a good bit of my waiting time in a hallway across from the men's room. There were multiple homeless people there, possibly getting warm before the snow forecast for overnight. When I finally spent some time in one of the waiting rooms, I sat directly across (maybe 10 to 12 feet) from a woman who insisted on relating stories about her three dogs, removing her mask each time to make sure I could hear her. I had a KN-95 mask over my mouth and was keeping a towel over my nose that would not stop bleeding, thanks to cuts at the top of my nose beside each eye. While I hope towel and mask offered enough protection from aerosol particles, I'm not going to take any chances about exposing my 89-year-old mother or any of her fellow residents in assisted living. The number of people in the ER was the highest I've been with since mid-March 2020, and I could go another two years before I'm with that many people again.
3 comments:
"A man of his word."
I live in Texas. I don't remember this concept.
Bird 'Pie
Oh my. I hope your nose is much better soon.
Carolyn, I'm sad for all the reasonable people who live in Texas (and Florida).
You've had a great start to 2022, three days with no power and then this. The intitial swelling makes it so much worse, as soon as that goes down you'll feel a bit better. It's so easily done, I slipped on a wet surface and fell up the single step in the kitchen. It's a step I've lived with for thirty years but it just took one hasty move for me to go down like a tree.
Here visiting MIL is off again, homes have to close to visiting if they have two members of staff with covid.
Post a Comment