The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 178 (678)

Cases may be going down in New York City and the Northeast, but locally, they're on the rise. The local health district just recorded its highest day ever, with 800 new cases. The local university's hospital has 131 covid patients, also a record. What goes up must come down, but it may take a while. Dr. Fauci has said that's it's hard to say what the next few months will be like. Under the best case scenario, we reach a point of "adequate control," though I realize that what may seem adequate for one group will not seem that way to another. Under the worst case scenario, "another surprise variant" emerges, one that may be even more transmissible and/or deadly. 

The likelihood that a case of Omicron will lead into long covid is still unknown, but there are a few points we've definitely learned about Omicron in its relatively short existence. Its incubation period is about three days, one or two faster than earlier versions of the virus. Among other things, this narrows the window in which to identify infection before it becomes transmissible. This is why the new recommendation is a rapid test two to four days after possible exposure followed by a second rapid test the following day. Omicron appears to cause less severe disease than Delta. Omicron sufferers are less likely to be hospitalized, put in an ICU, or put on a ventilator. The less severe nature could be because Omicron virus tends to stay above the lungs or because more of the people getting it have added protection from vaccination. 

Speaking of vaccination, the CDC has released some new figures. Unvaccinated people ages 65 and older are 49 times more likely to need hospitalization compared to people who have had boosters. Unvaccinated people in that age range are 17 times more likely to be hospitalized than vaccinated people who have not yet gotten a booster. The FDA has approved remdesivirfor high-risk patients not sick enough to be hospitalized. A problem, though, is that remedesivir needs to be given by intravenous infusion over three consecutive days. 

Around the world, Ireland is removing most covid restrictions and preparing for its first "real" St. Patrick's Day since 2019. Green beer will flow, I am sure. Beijing is now up to 24 local cases and locking down more sectors or businesses. The Olympics start in just under two weeks, under conditions China certainly did not foresee when they first bid on hosting the Games. Tens of thousands of people with plans to go to Japan now can't. The only people who can get in are citizens and returning foreign residents. Japan's residents aren't complaining; 88 percent believe the policy is "appropriate." Finally, Kiribati is a collection of atolls and small islands somewhere out in the South Pacific. The total population is around 119,000. Thanks to being islands and not very big ones at that, they've had but two cases of covid. They just started to open back up, and the first international flight in 10 months landed with 36 passengers who tested positive. Tarawa, the capital city, is going into lockdown. So much for thinking you could avoid covid on a deserted island; that only works if the island stays deserted.