The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 153 (653)

Looking to covid in the future rather than in the present, the dean of Brown University's School of Public Health predicts, "January is going to be a really, really hard month and people should just brace themselves for a month where lots of people are going to get infected." In the present, the seven-day average number of cases was about 240,000 yesterday. Back to the future one expert says, "I think we're going to see half a million cases a day--easy--sometime over the next week to 10 days." At the same time, POTUS says that Omicron's surge in cases "should be a source of concern but it should not be a source of panic." Much as I like POTUS, this comment probably won't win him any new friends and is going to hurt him with some others. 

The CDC is changing its guidance on how long to isolate following a positive test or potential exposure. The 10 days of isolation they were suggesting has shortened to five days followed by five days of serious mask-wearing. The CDC says that most viral spread happens in the first five days and with proper masking, viral spread after that is minimal. People who were sick but whose symptoms are improving and who no longer have fever can also leave isolation after five days as long as they stay masked. The same holds for fully vaccinated people who have been exposed as opposed to tested. The National Basketball Association is taking the CDC guidance a step further and saying that players testing positive but whose viral load is low can return to playing sooner. 

The CDC is actively investigating or observing 68 cruise ships following outbreaks on board. Seven others are being monitored for covid, but the case numbers are below the threshold for starting an investigation. That threshold is positive cases reported in over 0.10 percent of passengers or a single crew member in the previous seven days. While I greatly enjoyed our trips along the Norwegian coastline on the coastal ferry and mailboat, I have no desire whatever to take one of the multi-story resort cruises around the Caribbean or other sun-drenched body of water. Truth be told, I have no desire right now even to sail on the coastal ferry. 

New York City schools will reopen in-person classes on Monday, January 3 but with changes in their covid policies. The city was quarantining entire classes if there were any possible exposure. Now, they will use an enhanced testing program to allow asymptomatic students who test negative to remain in school, a program known as "Stay Safe, and Stay Open." The outgoing mayor announced the program, but the incoming mayor is on board with the decision. The aim is to detect more infections while mitigating disruptions. The specifics of how it will work were described as follows: After one student tests positive. all the other students are given rapid at-home tests. Students who are asymptomatic and test negative can return to school the next day. They will get a second at-home test within seven days of the original exposure. Major in-school spread across classes or levels can mean a temporary closure. The testing plan is to test 20 percent of students in each school weekly. BUT (there's always a catch) the only students who can be tested are those whose parents have given permission for testing. If you won't get your child vaccinated, will you let that child be tested?

I remember sometime in a past post to this blog noting that we had passed the milestone of at least one in every 500 people having died from covid. That number is now at least one in every 406 people. At least one in every six people living in the US have been infected. I wonder how that one in six might change after (I wish I could say "if" here, but I don't feel comfortable with that) half a million cases are counted in one day.