A bit of general coronavirus news before I start on Omicron. Merck's final analysis of clinical trial data suggests its antiviral drug reduced the risk of hospitalization and death by only 30 percent rather than the previously announced 50 percent. No worries. Thirty percent is better than no percent.
Various sources have said that the US needs to look to Europe to see what is coming on the coronavirus front. We tend to lag behind what happens there. Some people or organizations are more bothered by this than others. The director of the Pan American Health Organization is on the more side of that range, saying, "Time and again, we've seen how the infection dynamics in Europe are mirrored here several weeks later. The future is unfolding before us, and it must be a wake-up call for our region because we are even more vulnerable." The White House coronavirus response coordinator is on the less side, saying, "We are not headed in that direction. We have the tools to accelerate the path out of this pandemic: widely available vaccinations, booster shots, kids' shots, therapeutics." I'd like to know what this guy has been smoking because three of those tools depend on the vaccines that about 40 percent of Americans are not getting initially, booster-wise, or for their kids. Chances are, too, that the therapeutics these people would most trust are not those that do anything to prevent, treat, or cure covid.
Action against Omicron has already trickled (or poured) down to the state level. The governor of New York State has declared a state of emergency. This gives her the power to order hospitals to limit nonessential procedures in order to boost capacity.
As for Omicron, there appear to be cases in the UK now. A US scientist noted that Omicron's arrival in the US is inevitable, but the environment into which it comes is not. The environment can be altered prior to Omicron's identification here. Masks, distancing, and hand-washing--all those things we were told to do in the very early days of the pandemic--will help slow Omicron's advance or intensity. Doing those now might lower the probability that such restrictions as curfews or crowd size limits will need to be put in place again.
A few facts about Omicron. Scientists say that it may have arisen during a chronic infection of an immunocompromised individual such as an untreated HIV/Aids patient. Scientists do not expect it to be entirely unrecognizable to existing antibodies, but it is possible that current vaccines may offer less protection than they have offered against Delta and earlier variants. While antiviral drugs may still work, it is not at all clear how monoclonal antibodies will react. It will take several weeks to discover whether there is any change in symptoms or severity compared to Delta. Finally, some companies are already working on updating vaccines to react to the new spike protein. It could take six months, though, before any vaccines needed would be widely available.
The travel restrictions put in place in the US do not apply to American citizens or lawful permanent residents, though those people will need to show negative test results. Dr. Fauci notes that the real purpose of the travel ban or restrictions is to buy time. It's going to take a while to learn the specifics of Omicron, and the more its arrival can be delayed the more time there is for that research. It seems that some South African officials feel as if the travel restrictions are punishment for alerting global health authorities about Omicron. They say that this may keep countries from reporting future variants. While it has been reported that at least 10 countries had announced travel restrictions before South African scientists had finished meeting with WHO official about the variant, that meeting lasted all day.
It is a waiting game. We wait to see when the first case is identified here and whether that case leads to community transmission. We wait to hear whether Omicron is more transmissible than Delta. We wait to find out whether the existing vaccines are adequate. We wait for notice of additional guidance or even restrictions. We hope it's a nothing burger, but we'll have to wait and see.
No comments:
Post a Comment