Friday, November 26, 2021

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 121 (621)

Before we get to the disturbing news of the new variant that will not be named Nu but Omicron, Dollar Tree will next year start charging $1.25 for most items. But don't worry. We might be locked down again and not able to go to Dollar 'n a Quarter Tree for a while. 

Virtually all the coronavirus news out there today concerns Omicron, designated a variant of concern by WHO less than 72 hours after its discovery was announced. For comparison, Delta was around for two months before "interest" was changed to "concern." Omicron has been described as "potentially the worst so far identified" having what has been called a "very unusual constellation of mutations," over 30 in the spike protein alone. It shares similarities with the Lambda and Beta variants which are linked to innate evasion of immunity. It may also be more transmissible. On a more positive note, it is easily detected on a PCR test, and it appears easier to compare one genetic strain to another.

Various countries, including the US, have already begun to restrict arrivals from countries known to have cases of Omicron including South Africa, Eswatini, Zimbabwe, Namibia, and Botswana. Israel identified Omicron in an arrival from Malawi. The Israeli prime minister reports that they "are close to an emergency situation." Actually, Israel may be more ready to deal with Omicron tha many other countries, having held a "war games" style drill earlier this month preparing for an "Omega" variant. Hong Kong identified one case as having arrived from Africa and another case as the person across the hall from him in government quarantine. Suspicion is that the new arrival did not wear a mask when opening the door, and the hallway neighbor inhaled virus particles.

I am particularly nervous about the Omicron case identified in Belgium, the first such case in Europe. The person arrived from Egypt on November 11. Eleven days later, on the 22nd, he began to show symptoms and was tested. He had not been vaccinated. My concern is that how long he might have been contagious before showing symptoms is not known. Once we learn more about Omicron, we might know for how many days someone is contagious before they become symptomatic themselves. I would expect that this person was shedding virus on some of those 11 days, meaning that there will be more positive cases coming. 

South Africa is also concerned about more cases on the way. Officials say it is "only a matter of time" before the virus spreads across the country as schools close and families travel. Omicron has mostly been seen in young people in South Africa, the group with the lowest vaccination rate, not helping answer the question of how well the vaccines currently in use would react against it.

About Omicron the head of Germany's Robert Kock Institute says, "We are in fact very worried." And so am I, obviously, though my worrying doesn't carry the public weight of his. I have already decided that if Omicron makes it into the US (which it probably has done already), I'll forfeit the $25 I've paid to go to a quilt show in Hampton, Virginia in February. Actually, I guess the organizers could cancel the in-person event and hold a virtual one as they did last year. I've thought all along that the pandemic is not even close to being over. That does not mean, however, that I am pleased Mother Nature may be agreeing with me. No one is safe until everyone is safe, so let's get at it!


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