Wednesday, November 10, 2021

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 105 (605)

More than 360,000 children ages five through 11 have already gotten their first shot of vaccine. They can't be fully vaccinated (two shots plus two weeks after the second) in time for Thanksgiving, but Christmas is likely to be looking up for a number of families. In an October survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation, 27 percent of parents said that they would get their children vaccinated "right away," down from 34 percent in September. Unfortunately, the percentage of parents  saying that they would "definitely not" vaccinate their children went up, from 24 percent in September to 30 percent in October. Black parents were more hesitant than white parents, and families with public insurance and lower incomes were more hesitant than other families. Scheduling is a problem for parents working multiple jobs; some areas are doing vaccinations at schools to work around this. 

Europe continues to be the epicenter of the pandemic even as Europeans pour into the US now that restrictions have been loosened. Germany continues to record record highs, and the disease control center has warned that lockdowns could be needed if vaccinations don't pick up. Hungary just recorded it highest daily total since April, with new cases doubling from one week to the next. Slovakia and the Czech Republic have also reported record highs. WHO's covid envoy warns that we should minimize international travel as much as possible.

Vaccine equity continues to be a problem. WHO warns that it will prolong the pandemic and "could easily drag on deep into 2022." In the UK, 74 percent of the population have gotten at least one dose, 67 percent have gotten two doses, and 15 percent have gotten two shots plus a booster. In Africa, only nine percent of the population have received at least one dose. The per capita vaccination rates--doses per 100 people--for various regions are 

                    133    North America
                    117    Europe
                    113    Latin American & Caribbean
                    110    Oceania
                    107    Asia
                      15    Africa

Not too pretty a picture. To transition from pandemic to epidemic, populations need to build up immunity. Vaccine hesitancy and refusing to wear masks only add to the time scale.

China is doubling down on its zero-tolerance covid policy. In the city of Shenyang, travelers from overseas must spend 28 days in hotel quarantine followed by another 28 days at a residence. The Winter Olympics are getting more interesting every day. Will athletes be required to come some number of days before their event and quarantine with no practice time? Your guess is as good as mine.

On a down note, nearly 80 percent of Americans have been exposed to false claims about covid. The most common is that the government is exaggerating death counts. Three in 10 people weren't sure about the side effects of the vaccines after getting misinformation on that subject. Who is most to blame here? The schools that didn't include enough science education? The students who weren't paying attention? People not willing to step outside some small comfort zone and at least consider something different? There are no easy answers, which is why I fear the "deep into 2022" comment may well come to pass.

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