One method frequently used to estimate covid death tolls looks at the number of deaths that occurred over a time period with the number of deaths that occurred in normal times. Even this method has different schools of thought. In the UK, the Office of National Statistics uses the average between 2015 and 2019 as the baseline. In recent weeks, they show many hundreds of deaths. The Institute and Faculty of Actuarials adjust for population changes to get a different baseline. This one yields fewer than 100 extra deaths in the latest week. The Economist built a model to estimate excess global deaths. Under this, the 230,000 covid deaths Russia reports could be four times as large. India's death toll could be 10 times higher than the 460,000 they've reported.
US vaccination rates are some of the lowest in industrialized countries with readily available vaccines. If the currently blocked national vaccine mandate were put in place, 11 percent of unvaccinated people said they would most likely get the vaccine, while 46 percent said that they would agree to be tested weekly. Over a third, however, said they would just quit. The federal mandate would allow businesses in states with a ban on mandates to have their employees vaccinated. Says a former OSHA head and now a professor of public health, "This actually allows employers to do what they want to do and blame the federal government."
WHO says that Europe in at the center of the pandemic and at a "critical point." Cases are at near-record levels, and 500,000 more deaths are forecast by February. WHO's Europe director is urging governments to reimpose or continue with social and public health measures. He says that even in countries with high vaccination rates, immunization alone can only do so much. Vaccinations are valuable but only if used in conjunction with public health and social measures.
Record high numbers of new cases have recently been recorded in Germany, Bulgaria, and Romania. Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are also reporting their highest numbers. The Dutch have reimposed requirements for masks in public spaces and covid passes for museums and other public spaces. Case numbers in Europe and central Asia rose six percent in one week while deaths rose by 12 percent. New cases are surging by 55 percent over one month. Europe and central Asia combined now account for 59 percent of confirmed cases globally and almost half of all deaths.
WHO estimates that 95 percent universal mask use in Europe and central Asia could save 188,000 of the 500,000 lives forecast to be lost by February. WHO's Europe director notes that "Preventive measures do not deprive people of their freedom, they ensure it." He also said that passes showing proof of vaccination should be seen a "a collective tool towards individual liberty."
At the end of 2020, the per capita death toll was roughly equal for Republican American and Democratic America. The rate in counties in which XPot won 60 percent of the vote was only a few percentage points higher than the rate in counties in which POTUS got 60 percent of the vote. The death toll was higher than either in counties in which neither candidate got 60 percent of the vote. To paraphrase a song lyric that comes to mind from childhood, "and along came vaccines." The slight partisan gap quickly led to a larger gap in death tolls, a gap that has widened now for five consecutive months. The October death rate in Republican counties was 25 per 100,000 people. In Democratic counties it was 7.8 per 100,000 people.
Travel restrictions into the US ease up today. It will be interesting to see how that all works out.
1 comment:
I don't like the 140,000 figure because it's not deaths from covid. It's deaths within 28 days of a positive covid test (it started out as 60 days). If you make a quick recovery and walk out in front of a bus, that's a covid death. If you are 90 and die from one of your chronic conditions but you've had a positive test, that's a covid death too. They use that measure as the standard rather than deaths with covid on the death certificate but I would have thought the last one is a better measure since it actually uses cause of death.
All these people who are going to quit - where is their next mortgage/rent payment coming from? It's easy to say you'll quit but harder to actually do it.
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