Tuesday, January 26, 2021

The View from the Hermitage, Day 317

We've gone past 100 million (100,000,000) cases of covid-19 worldwide since February 29, 2020; more than 2 million (2,000,000) of those people died. Given testing limitations, those estimates are decidedly on the low side. The US is the big winner (or loser?) in terms of case level, followed by India, Brazil, and Russia. There are now multiple variants of the virus that may be more transmissible and/or more lethal. Each country has their own plan for dealing with the virus.

Americans complaining about the coronavirus mitigation measures here should be glad they don't live in many European countries. There has been rioting in various cities in the Netherlands for three nights in a row despite a 9:00 pm to 4:30 am curfew (and Virginians don't like a curfew that doesn't begin until midnight). Bars and restaurants have been closed since October. Schools and nonessential businesses have been closed since mid-December. There are advantages to not having a parallel to the tenth amendment to our Constitution:

The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.

There may be some loophole that would let our national government impose a national curfew, lockdown, or other mitigation measure. Given that they're still figuring out how to implement Mr. Biden's executive order about wearing masks on interstate transportation, that loophole may be tricky.

As one might expect, remote island nations have been more successful at controlling the virus, though New Zealand may keep their borders closed for the rest of 2021. Island nations such as the UK in proximity to the European Union have a harder time restricting entry from outside. 

Scientists are preparing to upgrade the vaccines currently in use to address the viral variants. Moderna is developing a booster shot they hope will not be needed. Dr. Fauci has noted that the new variants don't respond well to the monoclonal antibodies that have been used as treatment for covid. He is especially concerned about the South African variant, noting that it is "different and more ominous than the one in the UK." There is also some evidence that the variant from Brazil could lead to reinfection because antibodies might not recognize it. The CDC predicts that the UK variant may become the dominant strain in the US in March. It will be the dominant strain in Denmark even sooner, in mid-February. 

Beginning next week, The Professor will only need to have a covid test once weekly rather than the twice he's had to for the last three weeks. Fortunately, all the tests have been negative. If he ever gets a positive result, things will get dicey since I probably will have been exposed before he got the test result. I'm not sure living separately in the same house will work then, though I would hate temporarily relocating to Son #1's house and leaving The Professor here on his own not to mention possibly exposing Son #1. I think I'll put that on my list of things to discuss sooner rather than later. 

In other news, Xpot has rebranded himself as occupying the "Office of the Former President" with seemingly official stationery and other office accoutrements. I'm getting pessimistic about the whole second impeachment thing. Republican Senators are lining up to say that it is unconstitutional to try someone after they have left office. I wonder if they would feel the same way had the rioters actually taken prisoners not even considering that they wanted to kill some of those people. We may well be back to the shooting someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue and still getting votes. It almost turns my stomach.

If you need to distract yourself, check this article out. It is not the biography one would expect of the new Director of National Intelligence and might take your mind off the fact that we're still on the way to being fucked.

 

1 comment:

Caroline M said...

NZ is an island and didn't they do well? We are one too and didn't we do badly? It's less to do with proximity to our mainland neighbours and more to do with not quarentining incoming passengers (and for a very long time, not testing incoming passengers). The horse has long since bolted but we are now talking about hotel quarentine for passengers. That's talking about, not actually doing. NZ closed their borders and have had a tracing regime that went both ways - who you may have given it to and where you may have caught it from. Geography helps but effective action is the key.

I'm all for measures that work but I suspect that some have been performance art. If transmission is (still) through hospitals and residential settings then closing the gyms is a diversionary tactic rather than a strategy to prevent infection. Here it is so very political and I would rather have a strategy based on science than politics because it stands more chance of actually working.