As we move through what many hope are the latter stages of the pandemic, one writer noted that we were entering a choose-your-own-adventure period. Remember IIWTR? Is It Worth The Risk? That's how a lot of us are approaching or are going to approach things. A University of Texas epidemiologist thinks that authorities are not communicating the risk well to the extent that people are saying "screw it" because they're desperate for guidance. Another writer noted that as CDC guidelines loosen or expire, people are being told to contact their physician with questions. That's great as long as you have a regular physician. Not everyone does.
Back to whether an activity is worth the risk. How should we discuss covid risks? What tools do we have to compare the risk of an infection to the risk some other activity carries? What does it mean to say that an average 43-year-old vaccinated last year is roughly as likely to be hospitalized from covid as a bull rider is to be hospitalized after a ride. How much of a burden is deciding the risk of something on your own? There is obviously a real amount of risk from the coronavirus; in March it remained the third leading cause of death behind heart disease and cancer. Most people don't really see that much risk with the flu. Should we view covid the same? Actually, no. The coronavirus can infect many more people at the same time. With more people more likely to get it, the probability of a not-so-good outcome rises. And let's not forget long covid as a possible outcome.
Moving from the specifics of the coronavirus to risk in general ... the unit of measurement for risk is a micromort. One micromort is the estimated one-in-a-million chance of dying. Data nerd that I am, I have to share the table below. It's just too good not to share.
Obviously, the micromorts for coronavirus are going to be different in different places at different times. Two years ago would have been riskier than one year ago or than now. Or would it? Two years ago it was all about the original virus, no variants but also no vaccines. One year ago, we'd seen some variants but at least some of us were also getting vaccinated. I also look at that list and think which ones I've done. The riskiest would be surviving my first year, but that might have been riskier in 1956 than it would be today. I've given birth (twice), driven, been under anesthesia multiple times, gone scuba diving, not to mention the more driving and commercial flying. Where would whitewater kayaking fall? I've also done that.
Perhaps tomorrow there will be more specific coronavirus news. But maybe there won't. The Russians appear to be about to take Mariupol, Ukraine, and there were three mass shootings in the US today ... on Easter Sunday. The coronavirus may not be so newsworthy tomorrow. If having it as newsworthy as it once was would undo all that the Russians have done to Ukraine and Ukranians and slow down if not stop gun violence here, I'd take it an instant.
No comments:
Post a Comment