The big thing in what I've read today is coronavirus surges or waves. Questions such as why are cases of the BA.2 Omicron subvariant surging in Europe and not in the US? One argument is, of course, the addition of the word "yet." Some experts say we're not yet at a stage to "trip alarm bells." BA.2 currently accounts for 70 percent of US cases, just a bit above the proportion from which other countries took off. We may get there ... yet. Four reasons were cited to explain the current difference in surges between Europe and here.
First, Americans may have more immunity. It looks as if 45 percent of Americans have had covid from Omicron, which would strengthen their immunity against the variant. Our slower vaccination rate means that more people here have probably gotten covid if only asymptomatically and have natural immunity rather than immunity from vaccination. A Harvard epidemiologist described Europe as "covid averse" in that more people have been vaccinated with the intent of avoiding acquiring covid. The US, on the other hand, is "covid curious" leading, perhaps not intentionally, to higher covid rates. The same epidemiologist thinks that cases will soon rise here but will not get as high as they have in Europe.
Second, take it from the former President, "If we stop testing, we'd have fewer cases." Who would ever have thought that that was a serious statement. Over the last few months, testing in the US has become more and more at-home. People who test positive but have no or only very mild symptoms may not report their result. With the end of testing paid for by the government, some uninsured people may not be getting tested at all.
The final two explanations cited were short and sweet, such as "just wait." If 45 percent of Americans have had Omicron, 55 percent have not. Immunity, either from vaccination or having had the virus, only lasts so long. Finally, "another mystery" in that there is likely more we don't know about the coronavirus and its variants than we do know. The authors noted that cases are likely to rise, but that statement is less certain now than it was a few weeks ago.
In terms of counts, whether rising or falling, national numbers are too big to draw any real conclusions such as which region or state needs more support. Any national map of where the virus is moving is going to be full of holes. Wastewater monitoring is only being done in some cities or states, not in all by any means. It is probably worth acknowledging what one expert said which is that there can be a good side to a surge or wave. It might be the impetus some people need to get vaccinated. Using case numbers as an indicator is also troublesome given testing and counting issues. Hospitalizations and deaths, while lagging indicators, are not going to have the missing data case numbers do.
Finally, a peculiarity of a wave--or no wave--may be less about the virus and more about how we do or don't respond to it. Human actions such as mitigation measures can slow the development of cases. They can also accelerate them as with the removal of mitigation measures. How many balls (or chainsaws) can a juggler keep up at a time? I would rather not find out given what happens when one, especially a chainsaw, finally drops.
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