The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 321 (821)

June 14 has lots of connections. It's Flag Day! It's the birthday of a wise old man, now deceased, I knew in my years-ago church-going days. It's also the birthday of someone I think of as a daughter-in-law. It's a good day.

Lots of Little today:

The Rolling Stones are on a 60th anniversary tour and have postponed a stadium concert in Amsterdam because 78-year-old Mick Jagger has tested positive for covid. There's no word yet on their concert scheduled for Friday night. You remember rocker Mick Jagger, right? The guy who said that if he was still doing rock and roll when he'd be in his sixties, he should be shot or otherwise disposed of? Yeah, that Mick Jagger.

The CDC has added three countries to its Level 3 list (the places they don't want you to visit): Mexico, New Caledonia, United Arab Emirates. I can't say that any of those are high on my list of places to go and things to see, so this has little effect for me.

A couple of notable people are in the midst of covid relapses. The US Health and Human Services Secretary who tested positive just one month ago is again testing positive. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tested positive in January and tests that way again, now, in June.

Long covid continues to loom. One in every five covid infections leads to long covid. Vaccines only offer a 15 percent reduction in the risk of developing long covid. Long covid is the main reason I still wear a mask when around other people, even outdoors, and pass on indoor activities involving too many other people.

As for getting vaccinated or boosted, please do so if you're eligible. But keep that mask on and some cautions in place. Looking at covid deaths in Oregon in May, 58.1 percent were in fully vaccinated people.

FDA's committee of independent vaccine experts is debating the merits of the Moderna vaccine for children between the ages of six and 17. The doses being considered are half adult strength for children ages six through 11 and adult strength for those between 12 and 17. 

China is making lab tests for covid a permanent feature of daily life. A person needs a negative test result to go shopping, ride a bus or the subway, and take part in public activities. One problem with this is that hourly workers are not paid for the time it takes to get tested. Another is that some local governments are diverting money from poverty alleviation projects to cover testing costs; total costs are estimated to be in the billions of dollars. Shanghai will shift the cost of the tests to residents as of August. Needless to say, this is not a popular decision.

Queen Elizabeth still reigns, Ukraine is still fighting back, and thoughts and prayers have not brought GOP and Second Amendment advocates to their senses. I will keep praying for that, though.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 320 (820)

You may have noticed that from time to time news articles stating that this or that vaccination program is encouraging pregnant women to be vaccinated, or for women who are trying to become pregnant to be vaccinated. An article in JAMA Network Open reports that babies born to women who had covid while pregnant may face a higher risk of developmental disorders such as autism and bipolar disorder. This risk is not limited to covid infections. Infections with viruses such as influenza and measles raise the risk of disorders such as autism, schizophrenia, and depression. The covid study looked at the records of 7,550 babies. Three percent of babies born to mothers who did not have covid were diagnosed with a brain developmental disorder before their first birthday. For babies exposed to covid in utero, that percent was 6.3. After accounting for other factors that might influence a child's risk for these disorders--including preterm births, mother's age, and baby's gender--babies with in utero covid exposure were 86 percent more likely be diagnosed with a brain developmental disorder before their first birthday. 

The FDA is expected to rule this week on emergency use authorization for the Moderna and/or Pfizer vaccines given to children under the age of five. If the FDA gives emergency authorization, the CDC will have to ratify it. The CDC has ended the requirement that travelers entering the US by air have to present the results of a negative covid test. Sports teams will no longer have to travel by bus from Toronto to Buffalo to get on a plane there.

One candidate to be the Republican nominee in the race for governor in New York cannot appear in person at an upcoming debate. Andrew Giuliani, son of Rudy, has not been vaccinated for covid and refuses to get vaccinated. He says that he has "natural immunity" and will submit to multiple tests to prove he is not infected. The studio hosting the debate is holding firm on its vaccine mandate. Giuliani can appear in the debate remotely, though at least one of the other candidates is not at all happy with that ruling. He's holding out for in-person or not-at-all.

The last time I had my hair trimmed, my stylist told me that she and her housemates had gone through a bout of covid. She said she was glad she could not get it again and was not at all happy when I told her she could get infected again ... and again ... and... (She did not take her feelings out on my hair, thankfully.) Some people are reporting they've had covid three times now. Some scientists believe that covid will become "an inevitable infection that everyone gets multiple times," similar to the common cold. There are some differences, however. There is not as yet a seasonal pattern to covid. There is no long cold analogous to long covid. A case of Delta or an earlier variant was roughly 90 percent effective in preventing reinfection in both vaccinated and unvaccinated people. Since Omicron appeared, however, infection offers only about 50 percent effectiveness. Immune defenses do wane; an October 2021 per-Omicron study estimated that reinfection could come after only three months.

Quickies: A vet in Thailand may have gotten covid from a cat. An as-yet-unpublished study found that ivermectin does not reduce the time needed to recover from covid. (Surprise! Surprise!) The president of the opposition party in India has been hospitalized with "covid-related issues." Finally, a team of international scientists assembled by WHO says in its first report that bats likely carried early versions on the coronavirus and may have transferred them to animals sold at the market in Wuhan.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 319 (819)

I'm ba-a-ack! I almost feel normal today. Unfortunately, the seven pounds of water weight I lost is probably going to be back before I know it. I at least felt up to going on a walk with the dog this morning., It wasn't a long walk given that it was raining, but what distance we did walk felt okay.

So, in the days before I went on sick leave, I reported something about the death rate from Covid now being higher for white Americans than for Black Americans. It really is as shown by plotting Covid deaths over time by race/ethnicity. That's all well and good until one considers Simpson's Paradox, something I don't remember learning anything about in the various stat classes I took. Simpson's Paradox concerns how "statistical association between two variables in a population emerges, disappears, and reverses when the population is divided into subpopulations." One very important risk factor not addressed in the comparison of death rate by subpopulations is age, the strongest known risk factor for dying of covid. White Americans are far more likely to outlive Black or Hispanic Americans, suggesting that age should be considered in addition to race/ethnicity.

The source I read worked with covid death data from 2022. These data are provisional due to the length of time it takes to process death certificates. Before adjusting for age, per capita covid deaths for white Americans were 43 per 100,000; for Black Americans, 37 per 100,000. In other words, the numbers support what was shown in the earlier plot. After adjusting for age, however, those per capita deaths became 31 per 100,000 for white Americans and 40 per 100,000 for Black Americans. The gap is narrowing, though, and deaths among white Americans have increased faster over the last three years. 

The CDC has added four countries to its Level 3 travel warning (over 100 deaths per 100,000 residents over the past 28 days): Guyana, Mongolia, Namibia, and St. Kitts and Nevis. Most European countries remain at Level 3. Two countries were moved from Level 3 to Level 2 (50-100 cases per 100,000 residents over the past 28 days). I haven't felt a desire to travel by air, though I'm warming to car travel as we did the past two summers. 

It's felt good to feel better today. I hope the improvement continues.

  

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 318 (818)

Covid is still spreading, the war in Ukraine still rages, and Queen Elizabeth still lives. I'm still under the weather and becoming very good friends with the couch.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 317 (817)

I got news, and it's good, bad, or both depending on your view. The day before yesterday, I felt like death warmed over and stayed on the couch for pretty much the whole day. Yesterday, I felt fine, normal, peachy, the works. Today has been like Wednesday, pretty damn crappy, which I think is a bad thing. The covid self-test was negative, which I view as a very good thing. The bottom line is that this is all the blog you get today. Your mileage may vary in whether that fact is good, bad, or meh.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 316 (816)

I'm not sure what sort of illness got into me yesterday, but I'm feeling better today. I still feel a bit weak, but then a day of eating next to nothing will do that to you. So, on with the blog...

In the early days of the pandemic, per capita death rates for Black Americans were almost twice the white rate and over twice the rate for Asians. The rate for Latinos was in between but still above average. The racial gaps have narrowed as whites decline to be vaccinated. Over the last year, the death rate for whites is 14 percent higher than Blacks and 72 percent higher than Latinos. One obvious factor in this difference is that vaccination rates for both Blacks and Latinos are slightly higher than for white Americans according to a Kaiser Family Foundation survey, The share of white Americans who have been vaccinated has barely changed in the last year. Why? Politics! Only 60 percent of Republicans are vaccinated compared with 75 percent of Independents and 90 percent of Democrats. 

Ethnicity aside, the US continues not to do well with covid vaccinations. According to the CDC, 48.7 percent of Americans over the age of 12 have been fully vaccinated and gotten at least one booster. Canada's analogous percent would be 55.5. In 27 countries of the EU, 62.6 percent of people are fully vaccinated and at least partially boosted. In the UK, that would be 69.6 percent. The FDA has given emergency authorization to the Novavax vaccine. This would be the second non-mRNA vaccine. Approval must still be given to the manufacturing process which has had past difficulties.  

Moderna released results on their vaccine targeting Omicron. Combining the new vaccine with the original Moderna vaccine produced 1.75 times the level of antibodies as the original vaccine alone. Moderna is gathering data on the updated vaccine's effectiveness against the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants of Omicron. Those two now represent 13 percent of the new covid cases in the US compared with 7.5 percent a week ago. 

The American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation report that patients with long covid have an added risk for cardiovascular complications including pulmonary embolism, arterial and venous thromboses, myocardial infarction, and stroke. These may arise weeks or months following infection with symptoms ranging from "mild to incapacitating." Five to 29 percent of covid survivors complain of chest pain, shortness of breath, or palpitations months after recovering from acute infection. In the future, covid infection may be held to be a cardiac risk factor similar to smoking. 

The White House is expected to announce a rollout plan for covid vaccination of children under the age of five. Vaccinations could start as early as June 21 if the FDA, as expected, gives authorization to both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. It should be noted, though, that only 18 percent of parents say that they will get their younger children vaccinated "right away," while 38 percent say that they will "wait and see." Factoring into this may be that covid infections tend to be less serious in children than they are in adults.

Experts are now saying that the monkeypox virus can be airborne, but that is only a small factor in its overall spread, There is no firm estimate of how much airborne transmission contributes overall. One worry is that the virus could become endemic in some animals here in the US, opening the door for more frequent outbreaks.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 315 (815)

There's been a flu-like bug going around lately, and I seem to have let it catch me. I kept thinking I'd feel better and get up and write up the notes I took early this morning. Not gonna happen. I now return to the couch. I will do a covid test if this does not let up.