The View from the Hermitage, Day 343

I am closing in on the one-year mark here at the start of the 49th week. I naively never thought I'd be at this a whole year down the road. My conception of time may never revert to what it was. I talk about things happening in or awaiting some year down the road, but it's without any feeling for how long in the future that might be. Time has morphed from something point-to-point to something more like a cloud. Somewhere out there is an event, but it's floating around. Dr. Fauci said today that we may still need to wear masks in 2022, and 2022 did not seem like "next year" or only 10 months away. It's another cloud sitting somewhere out there.

As an update to yesterday's adventures in rodent hunting, The Family Dog has, on every walk since, stopped at yesterday's bush in search of another small rodent. She also checks out the spot on the other side of the road at which she dispatched yesterday's catch. It will be interesting to see how long this lasts. I wonder if snow or rain will play with the scents enough that she decides stopping is no longer worth it. 

Total covid-19 cases globally are now over 110,000,000; deaths are approaching 2,500,000. In the neighborhood of 205,000,000 people have received at least one dose of vaccine. Vaccine rollout in the US is one of the best in the world. Twelve percent of the population has gotten at least the first dose. Other countries with higher percentages are Israel, Seychelles, the UAE, the UK, and Bahrain. We might want to start thinking about helping the 130 countries that have yet to receive any vaccine for their citizens. If we want to reach global herd immunity, all the countries arriving there at the same time would be helpful.  

They're called "long haulers" here in the US, individuals whose covid-19 symptoms linger for months or longer. The condition more generally is called "long covid" and its ongoing symptoms are very similar to those experienced by survivors of Ebola and chikungunya, a virus spread by mosquitos. Those symptoms include joint pain and failure, cognitive problems including migraines, and fatigue. Inflammation is suspected as part of the cause, though what causes the inflammation is not clear. The immune system can be finicky, helping to heal us even unless it decides we are the problem and attacks the person and not the ailment. 

Study is being given to the "boredom economy" created by pandemic lockdowns, how we are coping with what one source called our "collective sense of ennui." Should we still be employed and immune to financial issues, we have been investing in such things and activities as bread-making, gardening, home improvement, and jigsaw puzzles. We have also invested in alcohol; sales have soared during the pandemic, something to which I can personally attest. Interestingly, the long-term and more intense boredom could lead both individuals and businesses to become more creative. We think differently when we have more time to think. 

Besides its significant effect on the K-12 education kids are getting, the pandemic has also significanly altered the college selection and admission process. More and more colleges and universities, including the Ivy League and other "prestigious" schools, are not currently requiring standardized test scores as part of an application. Such schools are seeing surges in applications. Cornell University received 17,000 more applications than usual. Applications to Penn State are up 11 percent; for Harvard, 42 percent; and for Colgate University, 103 percent. Students are more willing to take a chance on admission if they don't have to submit test scores. On the flip side, though, smaller and/or less recognizable schools are losing students and their tuition dollars, leading some to cut programs, or people, or even close.

I'm going to have to give some thought to our "collective sense of ennui." What have I changed to cope with pandemic boredom? Or am I just doing more of the same I did in the pre-covid days? I wonder...

The View from the Hermitage, Day 342

Son #1 informed me that the picture below and the accompanying story should be the headline item in today's blog post. Because I've been busy accomplishing things all day today, it will actually be the only thing in today's blog post. 

When Son #1 and I took The Family Dog (shown above) on her post-breakfast walk, she decided to get a little hunting in. We were on our way back from the road to which we usually walk her when something in a bush beside the road caught her attention. She sniffed and pounced and sniffed and pounced again. Eventually, a rather large mouse or perhaps a small rat scurried out and tried to cross the road. The Family Dog gave chase, caught it right as it reached the other side of the road, and quickly dispatched it with a chomp to its spine. She then sat and looked at us somewhat proudly. She was a wee bit protective of the body for a few minutes but eventually let us pick it up and carry it home for a photo op. It is now in the freezer in the garage awaiting the day when I get one or both of The Sons here to do a taxidermy session with me. I have a book that gives instructions for taxidermying a mouse. Son #2 gave me all the tools I need for my birthday or Mother's Day and said he and Son #1 would do it with me using the frozen rats he gets for his snakes.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 341

Ted Cruz went to Cancun with his family while his neighbors in Texas lacked power, water, and a very basic quality of life. When he saw the bad press his trip had engendered, he went back to Texas several days early. The explanation he gave should lead to more bad press. Since school had been cancelled, his daughters decided they wanted to go to Cancun with friends. As their dad, he figured he should take them down there. I gather that his wife is on the board of Goldman Sachs or another Wall Street firm, making the cost of this escapade a non-factor. I wonder how many of the folks who voted for him could just pop off to a resort at the drop of a school day. 

At the same time, there are three governors in how water over matters related to the novel coronavirus. Andrew Cuomo of New York continues to wade through the controversy over covid-19 nursing home deaths and how they were counted or reported. I'm not sure if that's better or worse than Ron Desantis of Florida who allowed a popup vaccination site that served affluent zip codes. And in California, we have Gavin Newsom, who attended a party at a fancy restaurant while his restrictive stay-at-home orders were still in effect. Just to be fair about this, Cuomo and Newsom are Democrats, while Desantis is a Republican. So is Ted Cruz, so I guess the parties are tied at "Really? Come on! Really?" behavior.

Of course, the question of haves and have nots applies to countries as well as individuals. Ten countries have given 75 percent of the world's available covid vaccine supply. At the same time, over 130 countries have yet to get their first doses. I read a series of posts today on one of the local nextdoor groups that started with someone complaining about vaccine availability. One of the people responding said that she, too, had been upset until it made her realize that she was and always had been a "have." She had a good family, education, opportunities that many other people did not. The fact that she is finally experiencing being a "have not" had been enlightening. She would transform back into a "have" after being vaccinated but so many other people would continue to be "have nots." Philosophical food for thought there.

While I'm on the topic of vaccine availability, two women in Florida, ages 34 and 44, dressed as elderly women to get vaccinated. Their disguises worked for the first shot, but not for the second. No mention was given of whether they were given the shot anyway or if they were going to have to wait. I would have made them wait., but not so long that the first vaccine was wasted by the second's not coming soo enough after.

A couple of interesting items I saw while trolling the news this morning. Dolly Parton declined the offer to put a statue of her in the Tennessee capitol. Tim Tebow is retiring from professional baseball. And promotions for two female generals in the Army were delayed over fears that Xpot would bypass them effectively ending their military careers. Recommendations for their promotions are not going to the White House. Better late than never, and a sign that the Secretary of Defense and the Secretary of the Army had some sense even as they served under Xpot. Finally, six US Capitol Police officers have been suspended with pay and 29 others are under investigation over their actions in the January 6 insurrection.

I could have made Son #2 a new quilt in the time and frustration it is taking to repair his decades-old one. But the extent of the repairs I am making is evidence of how much has has loved this quilt for those decades. This was one of the first quilts I made after taking a class from the adult education division of the local school system. I knew nothing about anything quilt-related then and did not purchase the highest quality fabric. One in particular starts to tear and disappear if I look at it wrong. I am going to have to add some new, similar fabric to fix some pieces of that fabric. I can't wait to see his reaction when he gets it back as a birthday present.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 340

Remember the number of new student covid cases that had not been posted yesterday by the local university? It was eventually posted and was almost twice the 117 recorded the day before. There were 229 new student cases on Tuesday and another 168 yesterday. The kids are knocking it out of the park this semester! It seems that someone in the administration told the fraternities that they could have in-person rush if they followed the mitigation measures in effect at that time. Judging by comments and photos posted on the UVA subreddit, it was damn the mitigation and full party ahead. 

The CDC announced that life expectancy in the US dropped one year during the first half of 2020. The last drop this large was in WWII. Perhaps more disturbing, life expectancy for Hispanics dropped two years, while that for Black Americans dropped three years. 2020 was the deadliest year in US history. For the first time, more there were more than 3 million deaths. 

The oh-so-weird weather is wreaking havoc with vaccine distribution in the US, but we are still better off than the 130 countries that, according to the UN, have yet to get one single dose. The herd immunity we want is not just for our own US, and for the developing world to get the vaccination percent that gives them herd immunity, they need to start getting vaccine ... now. It does us no good to say that every American who wants a vaccination can get one by the end of summer if developing countries are only then starting their vaccination programs. Scientists are working on it, but right now we do not know for sure how long the period of immunity is for either vaccine being given in the US. If our immunity is wearing off and no boosters have been developed, whether all countries have been or are getting vaccinated becomes even more important. 

For the first time since early November, the US is averaging fewer than 100,000 new covid cases per day. Only three states--North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska--have new case rates that are increasing. Rates are steady in New Hampshire, New York, New Jersey, and Puerto Rico. New case rates in every other state are falling. How the variants growing in prevalence will impact these rates isn't clear yet. The UK variant is supposedly doubling ever day, which is not a good thing if we want to keep the case rates going down. 

The Professor is strongly considering getting up at midnight and seeing if he can snag a vaccination appointment at CVS. He admits to being nervous whenever he goes out knowing that he could be somehow exposed. If he does not or can not get one of the drugstore shots, he's likely waiting another six to eight weeks with me. If the drugstores move to my priority group, I might be able to get something sooner, but I'm not getting my hopes up.

Texas remains at the mercy of Mother Nature, while we were somewhat spared here. We had about an inch of snow overnight that was covered with sleet during the morning. Fortunately, we never got the freezing rain that would have coated surfaces with ice. There may be more snow or sleet coming overnight, but the forecast for tomorrow has it well above freezing. Climate change. It's not for wimps.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 339

The weather forecast is ominous. The last advisory I read predicted 3 to 8 inches of snow and sleet alone with .2 to .4 inches of ice. The advisory runs from 9:00 tonight to 1:00 am Friday. Personally, I'm hoping for more snow and as little ice as possible. I'm not a big fan of slip slidin' away. Mother Nature, though, doesn't always see things as I do, so I fully expect tomorrow won't be pretty.

Remember Sweden at the start of the pandemic? They went without mitigation measures hoping for her immunity within their borders. It seems that they started gradual limits in November and are now preparing to close gyms, restaurants, and hair salons. This, as we start to open up even further here. I'm thinking they're on a more correct path than we are right now. Yes, the numbers are getting better here, but that doesn't mean we should stop being careful.

The UK is starting a human challenge study using 90 healthy volunteers 18 to 30 years old. The goal is to establish the smallest amount of virus needed to cause infection, look at the immune response, and see how the virus can be passed from person to person. They'll use the original virus not any of the variants currently in the news. I give those who volunteer for the study major props for being willing to be infected with the virus everyone else is so actively trying to avoid. As for the variants, the CDC has said they could lead to a rapid rise in the number of cases, predicting that deaths could reach 559,000 by March 13. Currently, we're at somewhere over 488,000. 

Vaccinations are still hard to come by in many spots. People locally are complaining in not-very-quiet voices about both the state health department's registration system as well as the system CVS drug stores are using for people to make appointments to get vaccinated. They're still not doing my group, the one with underlying conditions. Massachusetts is currently requiring two underlying  conditions for vaccination. It's like extra credit in school!

POTUS said in a town hall meeting last night that he hopes the nation could return to normal by "next Christmas." The article I read did not define "next" as being 2021 or 2022. I would think of Christmas 2021 as being "this Christmas" with 2022 being "next." Either way, I wonder what normal will mean as we emerge from the pandemic. Handshakes are probably gone for good. I'm not sure about hugs, though I expect if we do still hug, we'll save them for people with whom we are particularly close. There are probably quite a few men who prefer the no-necktie look and feel. Will we pack into a sold-out movie showing and sit shoulder-to-shoulder with a stranger? What about a sports event? A wedding? A funeral? Will restaurants ever get back the capacity they've relinquished? Will people feel comfortable sitting with other people at the next table or in the next booth. 

The local university recorded 117 positive cases on Monday. I'm not sure quite how they did it, but they ascertained that the large number of cases came from people letting their guard down in terms of mitigation. They got too close to each other, or let their mask slip down from their nose, or did some other bad thing. As a result, they shut things down about as tight as they can without sending everyone home as they did last spring. No in-person gatherings on or off campus. In-person classes will continue but with added measures to keep students separated. Kids who live on campus can only leave their dorm rooms for class, meals, exercise, or picking something up at a library. Those will be open only for p8ick-ups. Gyms are closed. If things improve over the next 10 days, they'll relax theses measures. And surprise, surprise, they did not do the 4:00 pm update giving the number of new cases found yesterday. Inquiring minds, well, my mind wants to know.....

The View from the Hermitage, Day 338

I won't be writing a long post today. I just spent too much time setting up an account in the local university's fitness program, doing the health assessment, and making an appointment to talk to a fitness person. The account and assessment got me $110, and the fitness chat will get me another $25. Once I figure out how to report it, I can get $25 for the flue shot I had in September. I don't recall just how many years I've done this, but I've earned the maximum $500 every year. Although I've retired from working at the local university, I can do the fitness program as the spouse of an employee.

England has put in a quarantine program for people entering from countries deemed high-risk for covid-19. Yesterday I found the list; I'd been wondering if the US made the list. I was a bit surprised to see that we did not despite how bad our numbers were for quite a while. Most of the countries seemed to be form South American or Africa. Given that the quarantine will set  you back almost $2,000, I'd do what a friend suggested and go from the high-risk country to a low-risk one and then enter from that one. I wonder if they have a reporting mechanism in place to guard against that.

The weather continues to wreak havoc here. Dallas, Texas should not be seeing temperatures in single-digit Fahrenheit. The houses there are not equipped for such weather. We've escaped so far, though the forecast for tomorrow night through Friday contains words such as "five inches of snow" and "quarter inch of ice." We may be equipped to handle those, but it by no means means we want to. Thanks to the pandemic, though, I have no need to drive anywhere. 

Here's hoping things are warmer down south tomorrow.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 337

How to take someone's mind off the pandemic or politics? Try Arctic cold as far south as the southern tip of Texas. The governor has issued a disaster declaration for the entire state. There is snow in Houston and Galveston. They know how to deal with a hurricane down there; I'm not so sure about a polar vortex. It's not just Texas either. Today one could travel from the Rio Grande on the southern border to the St. Lawrence on the northern and never leave a winter storm watch or warning. Actually, maybe some political hot air would help turn things around. 

And there's always the distraction of Ebola. There are now three confirmed Ebola deaths in Guinea, the first in five years. Four more people are confirmed to have it. All seven attended the funeral of a nurse who had it. The bad news? These cases are in no way related to the ones in the Congo.

The US has currently had over 27.5 million covid-19 cases and recorded over 484,000 deaths. However, both Friday and Saturday saw fewer than 100,000 new cases. The daily average case count in December was 200,000, and several days in January saw more than 250,000. Various reasons have been offered for the drop in case numbers. Vaccinations are easier to find, more people are following at least some mitigation measures, the virus may be following a seasonal pattern, and, frankly, new cases may be going undetected. The caveats are that the numbers, while better, are still now good; the number of cases of the variant forms are increasing; and some states may be reopening things too quickly.  

The CDC has issued new guidelines for reopening K-12 schools to very mixed reviews. The American Federation of Teachers supports the guidelines, though a number of individual teachers do not. Somewhat surprisingly, there are parents who feel the guidelines are too strict. The CDC views teacher vaccinations as a strategy but not a requirement. The guidelines put no emphasis on improved ventilation systems, something many school districts cannot afford to put in. 

Once again, I try to place myself as a parent in the mix and see how I might feel. It doesn't help that The Sons did various virtual distance education classes and in most cases enjoyed them more than they did in-person classes. Son #2 might have missed the social aspect of school, but Son #1 would have preferred to work at home on his own. Neither son liked the group projects so popular in k-12 schools; they usually felt that they did the bouk of the work if not all of it. Given all that, I probably would be in the stay-virtual-as-long-as-you-can group.

Dr. Fauci mentioned in an interview that he did fear he could get covid attending so many meetings at the White House, location of multiple super-spreader events. He said he did not fixate on it, but it was usually in the back of his mind. He had not heard, nor had I, of the new term "fauci-ing" someone, or cutting off a relationship if you don't think the other person is taking the pandemic seriously. You won't wear a mask and you want to be close to me; prepare to be fauci-ed!