A new study (peer-reviewed and published in Nature) claims that China's lifting its zero-covid policy would result in a "tsunami" of infections and close to 1.6 million deaths, due in large part to the low vaccination rate for the elderly. The gory details include predictions of over 112 million symptomatic cases, five million hospitalizations, and 1.55 million deaths. The ICU demand could be 15.6 times the existing capacity. The Chinese government may be backed into a corner. Holding on to zero-covid will not be easy, but it may well be better than the alternative. Still, WHO has told them that they do not think the policy is sustainable.
First thing this morning, I read about gun-related deaths being up 35 percent in 2020, the first year of the pandemic. Deaths hit a new record, over 45,000. Was this due to more people being at home together and under additional stressors? Were there more robberies or other crimes? I don't know. Second thing this morning, I read about another death record, this one in 2021 for deaths from overdoses, at 108,000. I'm not sure the two records are related, but both are likely outgrowths of the pandemic.
Female college graduates with babies and toddlers were significantly more likely to work for pay during the pandemic, perhaps because it allowed them to work from home. I wonder how this might change as more businesses or government agencies require employees to return to a physical office. Women without college degrees ended up working less during the pandemic, possibly because many were in jobs requiring on-site work such as service jobs.
And that's it from Lake Wherever this early evening. It was a busy day, but a good one. Here's to another good day tomorrow.
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