The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 278 (778)

Remember Deborah Birx? The former White House Coronavirus Response Task Force coordinator under the man who used to be president? She advises that the US should prepare for a summer surge across the South. She might be right. On Saturday, the national seven-day average number of new cases was 54,000. A week ago, it was 49,000, and a month ago, 31,000. New York City is entering a higher risk level as cases keep rising. Depending on how high it goes, it could mean some public health restrictions come back. Recorded case levels are currently as high as they were for Delta but still lower than for Omicron. The qualifier here is that the growth of home testing means case levels are surely higher than officially reported. 

As mentioned a couple of days ago, South Africa is seeing a surge from BA.4 and BA.5. Preliminary data suggest that these subvariants evade natural protection produced by infection with the original Omicron. The result is symptomatic infections with the new subvariants. The original Omicron often appeared as asymptomatic infection. A physician who led the pandemic preparedness response for the H1N1 swine flu virus observes, "We're at an awkward global moment where the past can't really predict the future." As for that future, climate change is putting pressure on species to migrate. Unfortunately, this offers new chances for viruses to jump from one species to another, and the receiving species could be us. As for today, BA.4 and BA.5 are present in the US but so far at low levels.

Italy is relaxing restrictions. It is now possible to enter restaurants, theaters, and gyms without presenting proof of full vaccination, recovery from covid, or a recent negative test. Mask mandates have been dropped in select venues, though people are encouraged to wear masks indoors or in crowded place even where they are no longer required. 

I've mentioned to people and maybe even here that one of my big pandemic fears is long covid. I read today that a small portion of people with long covid may have shown no covid symptoms or only very mild ones. Not exactly what one wants to hear. Covid is considered an "acute illness," while long covid is considered a "subacute chronic illness." "Acute" means something lasts one to two weeks. "Subacute" implies two to four weeks. As for "chronic," that's four to six weeks or longer. I am not at all sure what "subacute chronic" means. Woman and older adults are more likely to develop long covid than men and younger adults. Of course when I read something like that I wonder how the author is defining "older." Am I considered "older" at 65? Will I not be so considered until I reach 70? I'm not sure I want to know. Ignorance can, indeed, be blissful.