I told The Professor that today's post would be the 555th day since I appropriated my blog for pandemic use. Only 111 more days 'til I'm at 666, the number of the beast. Or beastly virus, I guess. That day would come early in 2022, so it's quite possible that I will hit it.
The coronavirus has now killed as many Americans as the 1918-19 flu pandemic did, over 675,000.The population then was one third of what it is now, meaning that flu was worse in a proportional sense. Internationally, though, the flu pandemic killed about 50 million people. The coronavirus has so far killed only just over 4.6 million people. Says a medical historian at the University of Michigan, "Big pockets of American society--and, worse, their leaders--have thrown this away." Winter may bring a new surge of cases. The University of Washington has a model that projects 100,000 more deaths by January 1, 2022. The world was very different in the time of the flu pandemic. World Was I was raging, there were no vaccines, nor were there antibiotics for treating secondary infections. We now have jet travel and mass migrations; still, much of the world is unvaccinated. Globally, only 43 percent of the population have received at least one dose of vaccine.
Demand is soaring for monoclonal antibody treatments, especially in states with low vaccination rates. Seven states--Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas--have used 70 percent of the federal supply of monoclonal antibodies. The governors of Florida and Texas have touted antibody treatments at the same time they decry mask and vaccine mandates. One antibody treatment costs about $2,100, while vaccines cost just $10 to $20 per dose. Monoclonal antibodies do lower the risk of transmission and offer early prevention of severe symptoms. Treatment does need to start as soon as possible after a positive covid test. The government is responsible for distributing monoclonal antibodies to the states. The White House press secretary reports, "Our role as the government overseeing the entire country is to be equitable in how we distribute. We're not going to give a greater percentage to Florida over Oklahoma."
The Winter Olympics start in Beijing and Zhangjikou, China on February 4. No decision has yet been made on whether spectators will be allowed. China has practiced a "zero tolerance" model with the coronavirus, finding and isolating every case to stop transmission. Harbin, a city of 10 million people, closed all businesses, gyms, cinemas, mah-jong parlors, etc. after one positive case was detected. It's not clear if this is compatible with permitting foreign spectators. China has been closed to most foreign visitors and has discouraged Chinese from traveling. China reports 4,636 deaths, with none since February, They also report 95,577 cases since early 2020, a total smaller than one-day new infection figures in the US and other countries. Interpret those numbers as you wish.
Some experts say that there could be a covid vaccine for kids available by Halloween. Four things need to happen before possibility becomes reality. First, Pfizer needs to request FDA authorization for giving its vaccine to a new age group. Second, the FDA needs to amend the emergency use authorization to include younger kids. Right now, the Pfizer vaccine is fully approved for people ages 16 and older. It remains in emergency use authorization for kids ages 12 to 15. Then, the CDC must review data and make its own recommendation. Finally, once the FDA and CDC recommendations align, a program of vaccination would need to be designed. The dose for children under 12 would be one third of the dose given to adults and older children.
Then, the question becomes if parents will buy in and get their younger children vaccinated. There are 28 million children between the ages of five and 11. Vaccinations of older kids have lagged somewhat; only 40 percent of kids ages 12 to 15 are fully vaccinated. Some parents say they do not want to vaccinate their younger children because younger children are less likely to become seriously ill. Others say that the sample size in children's trials was too small. Overall, 20 percent of parents of 12- to 17-year olds say that they will "definitely not" vaccinate their kids, a sentiment shared by 25 percent of parents of children between five and 11, and 30 percent of children under the age of five. It's going to be interesting to see how things fall out if vaccination is approved for younger children.
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